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after some 100k votes counted thus far
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May 26, 2017 03:12
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 22:23 |
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Rob Quist (Democratic) 47.6% 75,998 Greg Gianforte (Republican) 46.9% 74,906 Mark Wicks (Libertarian) 5.5% 8,758 159,662 Total Votes gonna be 375k or more votes total, could be a long night
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May 26, 2017 03:23
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Frijolero posted:Quist leading you jinxed it
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May 26, 2017 03:28
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Montasque posted:Bodyslam guy will most likely win but the fact this race is this close is a bad sign for Republicans. race might not be close, we will see. gianforte is slowly pulling away and there are plenty of 500-10 rural counties yet to come
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May 26, 2017 04:07
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Super-analyst Harry Enten weighs in on how a middling loss could actually be good news for demcoin: "There are 120 Republican-held seats that lean more Democratic on the presidential level than Montana’s."
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May 26, 2017 04:11
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Montasque posted:Harry "Trump has -10% chance of winning the nom" Enten. The very same.
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May 26, 2017 04:17
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Zas posted:has harry hosed yet? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSVw6djRhzk
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May 26, 2017 04:18
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"Another bad omen for Quist is that we still have zero votes in from Flathead County (Kalispell), the state’s most Republican-leaning large county. The votes there are likely to push Gianforte’s lead into the range of 5 to 10 percentage points." DRINKING TIME, LATER
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May 26, 2017 04:21
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Xenoveritas posted:LOL, he's not even going to beat the spread. Basically the exact same results as would be expected any other year. Good job, DNC, maybe someday you'll learn the only people less popular than Trump are Democrats. He's going to lose by around 7 points. Last race for this seat was a 15 point loss. Clinton lost by 30. So he beats the spread by ~8, which is slightly better than the generic congressional ballot results.
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May 26, 2017 06:23
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Concerned Citizen posted:he was outspent in outside funding, although the actual ad differential was a lot closer since he was given $6m in campaign funds. campaigns get preferential tv ad rates, which means quist got a lot more bang for his buck. or he lost because the baseline result in a montana statewide race is "republican wins bigly" (triply so outside of presidential election years) and voter sentiment in the state hasnt turned against trump/the GOP as it has in some other states (i agree that any evidence of any sort of anti-gun stance is v. bad in montana tho)
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May 29, 2017 02:53
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 22:23 |
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Concerned Citizen posted:this was a winnable race. gianforte's numbers were not good, and he had just lost with more favorable electoral climate 6 months ago. the issue is that quist became as unpopular as gianforte, plus the convention left some bitterness from a lot of amanda curtis supporters. gianforte lost his previous race to a popular incumbent governor during the presidential election, when dems do best. im not sure how you can cast that as a "more favorable electoral climate" for the GOP candidate. this is montana, there isnt a big anti-trump backlash to ride also, gianforte had decent numbers for most of the race, something like +10 favorability. he was never "unpopular" except maybe when he attacked a journalist after most of the votes had already been cast
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May 29, 2017 03:35
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