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labour party bad
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Apr 29, 2017 01:56
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| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 11:57 |
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 labour~
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May 5, 2017 16:34
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greece defaulting on its debt would generally be a mutual suicide thing, but it would hit greece much, much harder than the rest of the eu.
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May 8, 2017 20:13
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Vox Nihili posted:Defaulting on unsustainable public debt isn't suicide. Indeed, Greece has already technically defaulted several times, taking small haircuts and accepting bailouts. I think they should have defaulted and aggressively restructured a much, much bigger chunk of their debt, as their current debt-to-GDP ratio is barely sustainable and basically mandates perpetual austerity. greece would be ejected from the common market with no trade deals, absolutely no ability to finance debt, a worthless new currency, and an entire continent that would gladly watch them crumble. they'd be wiped out essentially, which is the reason why merkel was able to call the bluff without fear. the end result is they still get austerity, except 10x worse. the fastest way to end the crisis is for the european creditors to forgive a lot of debt. that is the sensible course that would save money overall, but it's so politically toxic that it seems unlikely. defaulting, for greece (and the world), would be disastrous Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 22:37 on May 8, 2017 |
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May 8, 2017 22:31
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Vox Nihili posted:Or there could be an explosion of economic growth once the enormous burden of servicing unsustainable debt is finally removed. What's certain is that the present debt load and accompanying austerity will continue to be a crippling anchor on growth and will instantly morph into another crisis with the next downturn. there'd be no explosion of economic growth. it'd be very difficult for greece to remain in the euro after a default because greek banks would lose the ability to gain liquidity from the ecb, necessitating a bailout with money that doesn't exist. this might be possible if it were an orderly, negotiated default, but in the more likely event it would force the greek government to re-introduce the drachma and therefore put it on the fast track to grexit. unlike argentina, greece has no real prospect for prosperity outside the eurozone. in fact, its default would precipitate a financial crisis that may put the entire continent (or world) in recession - magnifying the impact. the immediate impact would likely be shortages of basic necessities, dramatic inflation, and collapse of much of the private sector. it would take months to even produce physical drachma for people to spend. can the state even survive that? it's unclear. there's no real winning solution for greece acting unilaterally. they can take austerity from the eu, or they can accept austerity due to debt obligations and likely economic collapse. i agree that the eu/imf's strategy is inhumane and unsustainable. it may end up being the case that greece ends up defaulting anyway and they are just prolonging the inevitable - their policy is absolutely insane. but the only real solution is basically going to be for everyone to write off significant amounts of the debt and end the austerity imposed on greece. the moral hazard argument itt is insane. germany's policy is impossible. either they allow greece to survive and prosper again, or they have decades of bailouts that will cost far more than the cost of the entire debt - at horrendous cost to its people. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 23:51 on May 8, 2017 |
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May 8, 2017 23:46
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Vox Nihili posted:Again, most of this presupposes that Greece would have to reintroduce the drachma, which I'm not convinced is true. The prospect of an EU-wide collapse also strikes me as extremely unlikely when you look at the actual numbers in terms of exposure for the lenders. It's just not that much money relative to the combined economies of France, Germany, and co. well, to avoid having to reintroduce the drachma, greece would have to avoid bank collapse. they wouldn't be defaulting on germany/france, but rather would default on imf/ecb loans. greek banks are 100% reliant on the ecb for euros. they have no other way to get them because no one in the private sector is dumb enough to loan money to the greek banks. if they default on ecb loans, the ecb at that point will cut them off from ELA, which will mean the banks have no euros, which will trigger bank closures. the greeks will then have no choice but to re-introduce the drachma. this is essentially the issue - in order to stay in the EU, the greeks need the ecb to continue to provide their banks with euros despite the fact that they just defaulted on them. the ecb has said that a default on ecb loans would end the euro supply, so it would basically be a game of chicken. you're right that it it's not that much money compared to the eurozone's central members as a whole - the issue is that greece wouldn't be alone. their failure would discredit the ecb and drive up borrowing costs for the entire periphery of the eu (contagion). now you've got several sovereign debt crises, and from there it's unpredictable but potentially catastrophic. quote:I don't believe that starvation or complete collapse of the private sector are by any means outcomes necessarily predetermined by a default. Again, you can look at historical defaults for some precedent; indeed, what's going on right now in Greece is quite similar to the disaster stories that tend to follow a default. The difference is that the current "plan" has zero future upside. even a best case scenario (default with eu) would be catastrophic in short term followed by a return to growth. over the long term they'd be well above the baseline. this is what the eu should allow greece to do, but it seems they are unwilling to do that. so i think basically greece is in a no-win situation here. trying to maintain the (horrid) status quo may eventually yield debt relief, whereas a potential grexit would be really, really bad. and the grexit may end up basically being inevitable if the eu does not budge at some point. quote:I also don't buy that Greece is so uniquely situated that the economy could not recover following a default/major restructuring. That strikes me as an extraordinary claim. Again, lenders tend to return after a major restructuring as they have an opportunity to lend to a state with low debt. It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but banks are lending quite willingly to, e.g., Argentina despite it's series of defaults that have continued to as recently as a couple years ago (2014 I believe). yanis varoufakis made a blog post about why greece isn't argentina - obviously he was an enormous proponent of default with eu, and even he acknowledges that there are pretty significant differences. if greece defaulted within the eu, it could certainly recover. this is what greece would desperately try to do. but the ecb holds the cards. a default outside the eurozone may lead, quite simply, to a failed state. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 00:56 on May 9, 2017 |
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May 9, 2017 00:46
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also corbyn said he won't quit even if labour loses horrifically, so lol labour is doomed forever
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May 9, 2017 00:59
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corbyn did a very poor job during brexit. ultimately it's cameron's fault, but when 37% of labour voters side with the far right on brexit, that's kind of a corbyn issue. he should have resigned, but that didn't mean the coup was a good idea or particularly helpful.
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May 9, 2017 02:41
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Pener Kropoopkin posted:Democracies are the governments that ignore votes, right? 48% of voters wanted to stay, perhaps a party that represents those 48% might be more popular than one that says "well we're in favor of self-destructing in a more gentle way"
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May 9, 2017 02:44
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Hodgepodge posted:Frankly, given that he was ambivalent over Brexit and that the EU does not appear to be popular, he may actually represent his party's base better than someone who was wholeheartedly for the no position. labour's base was overwhelmingly for remain. the difference between bernie and corbyn is that corbyn is only 1 point more popular than donald trump, and widely disliked by his own party. so i think maybe corbyn might be the one who isn't really anywhere near his base
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May 9, 2017 05:39
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corbyn is on a different level of unpopularity though
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May 9, 2017 06:19
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Nanomashoes posted:Once he sat on a train floor and another time he mowed his lawn in a t-shirt. Both of these things seemed pretty cool to me. https://twitter.com/richardbranson/status/768070742135152640 awkward
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May 9, 2017 06:40
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richard branson took out the mayor of branson, mo and now he's gunning for corbyn
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May 9, 2017 06:48
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logikv9 posted:restore the power of the monarchy their first act would be to behead corbyn
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May 9, 2017 23:42
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iirc labour offered lib dems ending fptp in exchange for coalition, but lib dems instead chose the tories who only offered them a referendum on the thing. well, seems that was a mistake.
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May 10, 2017 22:20
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Top City Homo posted:*Concerned Shitizen doing math* corbyn got 313k votes in 2016. 9.3 million people voted for labour in 2015. the relevance of the leadership election to actual popularity in the party is pretty much zero.
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May 12, 2017 21:48
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Jose posted:The Falklands was justified i continued to insist as my empire crumbled into dust
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May 13, 2017 10:50
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owen smith would have won
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May 14, 2017 06:22
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I just placed a 20k bet on Corbyn winning a majority! Wish me luck!!
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May 14, 2017 23:02
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https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/866809792878215169
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May 23, 2017 01:24
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england started it all
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May 29, 2017 06:44
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i'm gonna lol really hard if tories manage to blow this my lols will be heard around the world, they will be uncountable and uncontainable
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May 30, 2017 23:57
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could the tories even form a minority government? surely it'd be gone in a second?
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May 31, 2017 23:28
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Bulgogi Hoagie posted:literally the biggest lmao in my life if true i'm no cop but i think this seems like a relatively easy case to crack
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Jun 5, 2017 16:34
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:so it really is like the US house rhode island has a million people and 2 members of congress please don't take this from them, it's all they have
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Jun 6, 2017 15:38
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holy poo poo
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Jun 8, 2017 22:03
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XPzICHxXoQ
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Jun 8, 2017 22:06
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chaos reigns
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Jun 8, 2017 22:12
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anime was right posted:so like how do u get a new prime minster is it just majority of seats or what if it's hung parliament, tories will get first whack at trying to form a coalition to get a majority of the seats. unclear though if anyone would really be willing to do it
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Jun 8, 2017 22:17
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somewhere in england, theresa may is running through a wheat field
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Jun 8, 2017 22:18
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872921611741036545
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Jun 8, 2017 22:21
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Baloogan posted:hahahaha corbyn and trump talking to eachother on the phone will be some of the most hilarious audio in history
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Jun 8, 2017 22:23
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ATTN: jim messina FROM: cc RE: yourself MSG: go gently caress
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Jun 8, 2017 22:32
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bit nervous that tories are gonna overperform these exits but i'm gonna just believe anyway
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Jun 8, 2017 22:40
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oliwan posted:I was just thinking... Isn't it ironic to lose seats on a purely opportunistic snap election called to gently caress over the other party???? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jne9t8sHpUc
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Jun 8, 2017 22:50
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https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/872938609426542593
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Jun 8, 2017 23:11
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i don't want the real results. they will only disappoint. i want to live in the moment i saw the exits forever
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Jun 8, 2017 23:31
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https://twitter.com/BrettMendoza/status/872939588284821504
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Jun 8, 2017 23:34
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STOP
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Jun 8, 2017 23:37
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| # ¿ Apr 28, 2024 11:57 |
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LinYutang posted:After the tory supermajority we'll all look back fondly at this hour of premature celebration shock exit poll failure as tories claim 97% of all seats
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Jun 8, 2017 23:40
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