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I'd normally feel like the OP should include current polling, but my guys is that it's going to be wrong, just like US polling vis-a-vis Trump and Brexit. Le Pen will perform better than expected, and either outright win, or get narrowly defeated in the second round.
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Apr 22, 2017 04:28
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:list of good articles by conservative writers about france's political / social crisis:
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Apr 23, 2017 01:12
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The article itself is spot on, even if there's a couple of little hitlers in the comments
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Apr 23, 2017 01:46
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im an irl globe, ama
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Apr 23, 2017 11:23
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The Pen vs. Macaroni vs Filiet mignon vs Melencholy
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Apr 23, 2017 22:41
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Macron is the candidate with the best polling odds versus le pen in the run off, right? I feel better about the election. Guess I can stop arzying now.
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Apr 23, 2017 22:43
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I can't imagine fn gaining in the second round too much, but its still worrying that she got a plurality. But the EU is safe for now, which is good news long term. I can imagine conservatives adopting stronger anti-migrant stuff in the hope of siphoning of votes, so the next election is probably going to involve all major players promising an EU army of one variety or another.
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Apr 23, 2017 22:48
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Shear Modulus posted:this is good news...for Jeb!
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Apr 23, 2017 23:34
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You don't need faith in something that's scientifically true.
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Apr 24, 2017 08:10
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macron is going to implement a whole poo poo tonne of austerity and the economy is going to go to poo poo, leftists aren't in a position to push so le pen is going to win the next election quote me in 5 years
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May 1, 2017 08:47
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It's nothing to do with 'bad at politics', it's just a very precarious position, made worse by policies of centrists, who seem committed to only further embolden the far right. The driving issue here is the migrant panic, and the way it's been mishandled. UK, France, it's all the same story, the reactions pushing right. Thing is, the right won't really stop at migrants, they'll bring the rest of their political baggage with them, which is also fairly pro-corporate, so it's not actually going to solve any of the economic dysfunctions. So Macron is going to win 5 years, watch as his ratings fall, Le Pen is going to win, they'll probably be a honeymoon period but then poo poo is just going to get worse. Centrism as we know it will be dead by 2022 in France.
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May 1, 2017 12:12
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The racism will still be there though, that'll survive any pivot
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May 2, 2017 01:50
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Shear Modulus posted:the vote counters are actually on monthlong holiday so idk
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May 6, 2017 01:16
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There's a prediction and betting thread where you can toxx for donations and probes and such, that should have the French election in ir
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May 6, 2017 01:43
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New content idea for Something Awful: Forgery Fridays, where goons submit leaked documents they found on their desktop.
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May 6, 2017 10:27
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There's no way that's true, it's just classic blame shifting. Like in terms of just straight up lying, there's no group of people more comfortable with it right now than alt-right. They lie when they make up fake documents, when they're proven false they lie that it's just a fake story to make them look bad. Or like that guy with the surgery scar that blamed it on antifa. What's convenient for what they already believe, is more important than what's true. It's not just people outside they're trying to trick though. I think the deception is so thorough that they've tricked themselves. Every conjured up self-serving excuse becomes truth, through pure repetition inside a closed community + the power of peer pressure.
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May 6, 2017 14:41
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he makes no mention of people like the catholic church telling peeps that contraception is bad, or the terrible loans that keep african countries poor and dependent, or the mining companies that extract wealth but give nothing back in local revenue to the states they're stationed in, it's just 'well the infrastructure, institutions and education is bad and terrible, how did that happen? tis a mystery'
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Jul 11, 2017 06:56
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the summary of the speech is 'africa is a continent of trafficking, drugs and violence, and all of these problems are causative of political dysfunction, not symptomatic', which is as close to racism as you can say while still being a centrist - but it's still a rhetorical shift, that places the blame away from contemporary forms of exploitation onto the people in africa themselves the only reason he's saying 'well we can't just give them money' is because there's too much money riding on the terrible loans to african states, to even considering forgiving them/discharging them, even though that's exactly what needs to happen to help them.
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Jul 11, 2017 07:06
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