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Sataere posted:See, I don't like Davis that much more than Fournette, Mccaffery or Cook. I think they are all interchangeable. Hence my willingness to trade back. Ah, I gotcha. Yeah, I'm excited about Kamara, but wonder if reports of the coaching staff being annoyed with Ingram might be exaggerated. As for Davis, I'm not sure he's consensus 1.01, just think uncertainty over Fournette's passing down role has let Davis creep in ahead of him for a lot of people. Leperflesh posted:Tight end chat. I just made this chart for the slow draft, because I was curious, so you guys might as well see it too. Well, not sure I see the case for much optimism. Gronk and Henry only contributed due to touchdowns, and the next best TE on the list was probably a mid to low TE2? It's super nice to see it all laid out, of course. Convinces me that Njoku is the guy to take a flier on, as Howard and Engram are not going to get the red zone looks they need right out of the gates. Edit: or was this from a dynasty perspective of "how often do they contribute eventually"?
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May 16, 2017 20:46
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It was from the slow draft thread. A couple of the rookies just got picked, and I was curious how often rookies contribute at that position. I'm inclined to believe they were picked too early. Then again, that methodology is flawed, because it assumes equal round means equal talent.
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May 16, 2017 20:51
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You left off 3rd round picks just to make me mad that Kelce isn't listed. KELCE KELCE KELCE
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May 16, 2017 20:58
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Leperflesh posted:Tight end chat. I just made this chart for the slow draft, because I was curious, so you guys might as well see it too. I mean not really   Edit: over the last several years, ~6.2 to ~6.5 fantasy points is the #12 TE. So you have to have a top-four all-time TE season to be a backend TE1 And I wish I could pull Megatron out of there because it fucks with all my TE poo poo Spoeank fucked around with this message at 21:10 on May 16, 2017 |
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May 16, 2017 21:05
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I think that while in general Davis is the 1.1 there are a lot of situations where it makes more sense to take Fournette there. I wouldn't fault anyone for doing it. I think MCaff or Mixon are bigger risks so I wouldn't take either over Davis unless the roster situation (or league scoring) were really extreme but LF is different to me.
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May 16, 2017 21:10
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This is in the context of rookie drafts for Fantasy, yes. For a redraft league, you shouldn't be drafting most veteran TEs before the mid-late rounds, much less taking a flyer on a rookie. Also, Megatron was drafted as a tight end? Huh. Also also, I don't think ranking by points per game across a season is necessarily the right way to evaluate a rookie. Presumably many rookies will be eased in later in the season: even in a redraft league, you'd be picking them up as a stash, not your TE1 that you start week 1. I'd rather see their PPG for games they actually played in. And finally, I was careful to take notes, because as with all players, situation matters and trumps most other considerations. Also your evaluation of the given team's ability to draft well. E.g., don't trust a TE drafted in the first 2 rounds by the Rams. Pay more attention to guys drafted to clearly be the catching TE1 on their team. vs someone who is clearly going to be an understudy to a star catching TE that is still on the team. Except if the star gets injured, then definitely go back in time and draft them.
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May 16, 2017 21:15
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I don't understand your thought process. You took season-long stats in your process and then said that those are inherently flawed? You also literally said in your post "The question was: how often do rookie tight ends contribute?" You also mentioned the slow draft, which is not a rookie draft. Here, a handful of current fantasy relevant guys' rookie years (pulled from your list) Hunter Henry, who was maddening to try to use  Tyler Eifert  useless Eric Ebron  useless Zach Ertz  Gratz if you figured out his three useful games Coby Fleener  useless Purple Unicorn  useless Gronk  ACTUALLY VERY GOOD (sometimes) So if you want to stash a rookie TE on narrative, go for it, but it would make far more sense to go ahead and use that slot on anything else
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May 16, 2017 21:42
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but then again I said not to draft zeke in the first so what the gently caress do I know
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May 16, 2017 21:44
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Ok well: "Contribute" does not mean "can be a TE1 on a fantasy team." It just means, how often do they matter at all? And in the slow draft, we're playing Best Ball, so average is irrelevant assuming you have at least two TEs. Probably most teams will end up with three or more, if previous years are any indication. So, how often is a rookie tight end at least as useful as any other TE2+ in best ball format? Average ppg isn't going to give you that answer at all, you need to see if they had any games with high fantasy performance where they'd bubble up to being meaningful in best ball. In dynasty, you're generally in a rookie draft, and at some point in that rookie draft, you might start considering a tight end. As part of that consideration, you'd wonder if any rookie TE will "contribute" that year, e.g., potentially be startable, particularly if your starter TE is hurt. In redraft, you should probably only have one TE on your team, period, and there are at least 12 non-rookie TEs worth having, so if you don't get one of the top four or five, just get any of the rest in some late round and whatever. Trying to pick a rookie TE to be your only TE in a normal redraft league is a fools' errand, and I did not intend to imply otherwise. As for your charts: Hunter Henry was useful in weeks 4, 5 and 6, and then again week 14. Figuring out that you needed to start him those weeks would suck, but in best ball? Sure. I feel like you're making my point for me with the others... they all had probably a week or two or maybe three in which they'd contribute in Best Ball, or in which they'd have been a serviceable emergency backup for a TE1/2 in a dynasty league as a stash. You called Eifert "useless" but he had two or three weeks of useable production (depending on scoring). What is your standard here? If you're measuring "useful" TE points against the top five, that's way more than I was suggesting. Ignoring those top five guys, what is the average production of any fantasy tight end? Assume a 12-team league, so TEs numbered (say) 6-12 average how many points per game? Tight ends loving suck, we all know that, so if your backup dude can get you 8 points, that's a win.
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May 16, 2017 21:58
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LF at this point I honestly don't know when and where you're advocating taking a rookie TE. You called them stashes, which literally indicates a standard redraft league. And then you dropped well, dynasty and well, best ball Check out this chart dont draft rookie tight ends Take that for data *slams table*
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May 16, 2017 23:06
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Spoeank posted:
That is completely undoable for me. There is one whose last name is Butt. I basically HAVE to draft him.
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May 16, 2017 23:41
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I might consider OJ Howard if he drops far enough. Like maybe if I I'm down to deciding between him or Jared Cook in the 13th. I could see him carving out a red zone role in Tampa Bay's offense. Cameron Brate probably outscores him though. And I'm definitely not touching Njoku or Engram as rookies.
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May 16, 2017 23:44
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Tiptoes posted:I might consider OJ Howard if he drops far enough. Like maybe if I I'm down to deciding between him or Jared Cook in the 13th. I could see him carving out a red zone role in Tampa Bay's offense. Cameron Brate probably outscores him though. And I'm definitely not touching Njoku or Engram as rookies. 
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May 16, 2017 23:48
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C.J. Fiedorowicz and Austin Hooper imo.
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May 16, 2017 23:49
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I'm kidding about Cook. I'm all about that Jack Doyle action this year. #TeamDadRunners
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May 16, 2017 23:54
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Spermy Smurf posted:That is completely undoable for me. Strictly for the mandatory team name pun.
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May 17, 2017 00:02
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I'm just gonna petition my main league again to change TE slot to WR/TE
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May 17, 2017 00:35
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*cracks knuckles*
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May 17, 2017 00:36
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Spoeank posted:LF at this point I honestly don't know when and where you're advocating taking a rookie TE. You called them stashes, which literally indicates a standard redraft league. ...huh. OK, so, there's no stashes in dynasty? Lemme be clear, in a standard redraft league you should only draft the minimum number of TEs you are required to have on your roster, and that probably means not drafting a rookie tight end, period.
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May 17, 2017 01:20
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Leperflesh posted:...huh. OK, so, there's no stashes in dynasty? Ok we good. You came at it so many different ways and some of your wordings got me shook Also if anyone didn't like PFF Fantasy before, try revisiting this year. They hired a bunch of people, mostly from DLF, in the last few days.
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May 17, 2017 01:28
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Okay Gentlemen, I enjoyed Mariota vs. Jameis Today's debate: John Ross Mike Williams Mike Williams went first, and is by far the better receiver, but he is entering an extremely crowded situation. Quick reminder of the Chargers offensive weapons that aren't Mike Williams: Melvin Gordon, Hunter Henry, Antonio Gates, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin. That's a detriment to Williams, as there's so much there for Rivers to go to that isn't Williams. There's also a couple of issues with Williams himself. He got physically shoved off his routes too much and had trouble creating separation in college. The thing with that is... it didn't matter. 50/50 balls were not 50/50; he was amazing at the catch point, which seemingly will translate. rivers is also a good improvisational QB, which will work well when Williams gets knocked off his route. He also disappeared in the red zone at Clemson; whether that's game planning or necessity we'll see at the next level but a lack of TDs might be an issue with his 2017 fantasy value. Then there's John Ross. There's not nearly as much in terms of weaponry in Cincy. It's AJ Green, Eifert, and whichever one of the RBs is on the field at the time. That opens up a good amount of opportunity for Ross. I don't know if andey can reliably take full advantage of Ross's blazing speed, but it should do wonders for the overall Bengals offense (especially with Mixon). I think he's going to be a fun DFS play because his speed will create room for him underneath to run past everyone on a slant route (aka the Giants' only play in 2016 with ODB). The easy comp is D-Jax, which is fair, to me. He will be boom-bust and ultimately a fun DFS play or a second flex spot in normal fantasy leagues. Ultimately I think Ross ends up with more fantasy points from a handful of 70+ TD catches but I think Williams has more week-to-week and PPR value. I think Williams will have trouble with touchdowns, which will drive him down a tad.
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May 17, 2017 16:23
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My gut says that's probably right. The only real thing that makes me consider leaning Williams there is that if Rivers clicks with someone, he can make him anyone a valuable player.
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May 17, 2017 21:42
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Spoeank posted:Okay Gentlemen, I enjoyed Mariota vs. Jameis I prefer Ross. Hamstrings can be extremely troublesome (see DeSean Jackson) and if that happens then Ross becomes an obvious WR1 from an opportunity standpoint.
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May 17, 2017 22:02
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In redraft, I'm going Ross. But dynasty/long term, I just like Williams' profile, especially when comparing each rookie to Keenan and Green. Ross will never be the WR1 while Green is in town, and though I think it's unlikely, Williams could unseat Keenan for lead target, or at least be a very close WR1b to Keenan's WR1a.
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May 17, 2017 22:35
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RVProfootballer posted:In redraft, I'm going Ross. But dynasty/long term, I just like Williams' profile, especially when comparing each rookie to Keenan and Green. Ross will never be the WR1 while Green is in town, and though I think it's unlikely, Williams could unseat Keenan for lead target, or at least be a very close WR1b to Keenan's WR1a. Does Rivers being at the end of his career give you any pause for Williams in dynasty?
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May 17, 2017 23:17
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I kinda think I'm leaning Williams over Ross myself. At least in redraft leagues. I think in dynasty I'd prefer Ross cause I always love to gamble on dudes with elite traits. But my gut leans Williams right now for 2017. I'm not sure I buy that the Bengals are poised to immediately take advantage of Ross. They're poised to run more with Mixon in the fold so we'll probably see a reduction in Dalton's attempts. And they took some hits on the o-line when they lost Whitworth and Zeitler so Dalton may be under more pressure as well. So I'm down on Dalton compared to the rest of the fantasy community. And while I have no reason to doubt Ross' talent, I think we've seen plenty of other lighter-framed speedsters struggle to make immediate impacts or have to deal with minor injuries in their rookie years. Not busting but just being solid/unspectacular at first. CBs in the NFL are bigger, faster, hit harder, and will play you more physically at the line of scrimmage so that poo poo can take some adjusting to. Brandon LaFell is also definitely going to play more than anyone watching wants. His blocking on run plays will probably see to that. Mike Williams might be in a worse spot on paper at the moment but really all he needs is for a Chargers receiver or two to get injured to get him a real chance and that's 100% going to happen, right? I mean yeah injuries are inherently chaotic in nature but the Chargers, and Keenan Allen in particular, have had some real poo poo luck going back a while. If Allen or Tyrell Williams went down, I think Mike steps up. Or if just Allen goes down, I think Mike could carve out a valuable role opposite Tyrell with Travis Benjamin acting more as a deep threat option. It would be kinda like when Keenan Allen was a rookie. He had a great rookie year but started it way down the depth chart (in a "hadn't proven poo poo yet to coaches" sense) until injuries took out guys in front him. So I have a not entirely rational feeling Williams will be luckier.
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May 18, 2017 00:40
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Zay Jones over both.
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May 18, 2017 00:50
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I feel like this exact Cincy scenario: Two deep ball threats, one decent flat receiver, and a shaky running game... is why Sky and Cloud coverage was invented. Unless Cincy's offensive line somehow uses spit to come together, I don't see Ross being a threat until like 2-3 years, once he gets his routes down. Mike Williams, 10 times out of 10. Rivers can find him enough to get him like 800 yars and maybe 4 TD
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May 18, 2017 02:10
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I could swear I could do this last year, but how do you see the rosters that people had last year on an NFL.com league? Trying to figure out who will be kept as keepers, and all the rosters are currently empty. When I click history, it just gives me last year's winners and a few random stats. Edit: Never mind, I finally found it in the history: http://fantasy.nfl.com/league/12345/history/2016/teamhome?teamId=8 Thanks for making it easy, NFL.
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May 18, 2017 03:18
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Ben Nevis posted:Does Rivers being at the end of his career give you any pause for Williams in dynasty? It's not great, but there aren't a ton of better spots. I'd rather see what he does in the next 1-2 years with a good QB, can always sell him on if I think he won't produce after Rivers. Though I think I actually do like Ross more than lots of dynasty people I've seen. A WR taken at pick 9 in the real draft has been falling to at least that far in some drafts.
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May 18, 2017 03:31
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RVProfootballer posted:It's not great, but there aren't a ton of better spots. I'd rather see what he does in the next 1-2 years with a good QB, can always sell him on if I think he won't produce after Rivers. Though I think I actually do like Ross more than lots of dynasty people I've seen. A WR taken at pick 9 in the real draft has been falling to at least that far in some drafts. I think a lot of people criminally underrate where people are drafted in dynasty. Will Fuller was drafted in the second round of a lot of fantasy drafts and he was a first round pick. That's crazy, because he's going to get way more opportunities to succeed than the fourth rounders drafted ahead of him.
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May 18, 2017 06:38
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I thought we learned our lesson about not trusting WRs named "Mike Williams" by now 
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May 19, 2017 01:29
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Benne posted:I thought we learned our lesson about not trusting WRs named "Mike Williams" by now I am legitimately avoiding him for that reason. Because if he does well, it's just whatever. But if he's bad, I should've known better.
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May 19, 2017 03:01
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Silly Burrito posted:I could swear I could do this last year, but how do you see the rosters that people had last year on an NFL.com league? Trying to figure out who will be kept as keepers, and all the rosters are currently empty. When I click history, it just gives me last year's winners and a few random stats. Remember last year, when drafting some guy (I forget whom) would freeze the draft, and since he was ranked pretty well ANY draft with an autopick team would inevitably crash.
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May 19, 2017 15:15
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Drunk Nerds posted:Remember last year, when drafting some guy (I forget whom) would freeze the draft, and since he was ranked pretty well ANY draft with an autopick team would inevitably crash. Justin Forsett, and yeah that was a loving disaster. I've always been fine with Yahoo, but that's what 95% of my leagues have always been hosted on so I kinda grew up with it. It's all I knew. Now I have leagues on NFL.com and ESPN too and I really don't like either of them.
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May 19, 2017 15:45
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I'd pay MFL extra if it would let me make the whole site look like yahoo's.
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May 19, 2017 19:23
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Looking over Dynasty stuff, is there any chance Dorial Green-Beckham ever puts it together? Like maybe he just needed a more credible threat than Matthews to open the field up?
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May 22, 2017 18:52
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Hahahahahahahaha No
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May 22, 2017 18:57
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Spoeank posted:Hahahahahahahaha Basically this, though if you're in a deep enough league where like 70-80 WRs are rostered, he's higher upside stash than a lot of guys down that end of the rankings.
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May 22, 2017 20:16
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Yeah I'd say he's one of the better WR8s in fantasy e: https://twitter.com/Ryan_Boser/status/866714823467216896 Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 22:06 on May 22, 2017 |
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May 22, 2017 21:48
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