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Ironically, you forgot to mention Beersheets. Those things are too invaluable not to be in the OP.
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Apr 30, 2017 00:42
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hey anybody ever hear of this Christine Michael guy who just got cut from the Packers? Seems pretty athletic could be a good sleeper pickup
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May 2, 2017 13:15
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Wow, lot of news today. - Bills did not pick up Watkin's 5th year option. - Jamaal Charles signed with the Broncos for no guaranteed money ($1mil base, $2.5mil incentives) and will miss most of the offseason activities (he'll be fighting for a roster spot). - 49ers cut a bunch of wide receivers but none of them were Bruce Ellington, who is already injured again (sigh). - Rumors of interest in Blount from Lions and Giants. - Bears signed Bradley Sowell, literally the worst left tackle in football last year. - Current Jets quarterback roster consists of Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg, and Bryce Petty, and the coach (Todd Bowles) just said that all three will split 1st-team snaps. Race to the bottom wooooooo!
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May 3, 2017 12:32
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Decided to see if it was time to take teemu off ignore for the new season. Nope. Holding out hope for next year.
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May 3, 2017 13:49
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Last year was just a tough rookie class. When rookie drafts were going on, everybody agreed that Zeke, Shepard, Henry, Boyd, and Thomas should be taken early/mid 1st (which seems correct), and pretty much nobody was on Hunter Henry, Dak, Hill, Hooper, or Kelley. Most of the accuracy differences boil down to how much you liked Howard (who is good) and Booker (who is not).
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May 3, 2017 17:59
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Sataere posted:I blew up my dynasty team this year, so I have 1.01, 2.01, 2.04 and 2.06. Looking at this draft, I am super stoked at my second rounders. Naw man don't trade down with the 1.01. Take Davis - everybody else in the top 6 is a crapshoot. (Or trade directly for a stud). The 2s look great this year though.
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May 16, 2017 15:24
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C.J. Fiedorowicz and Austin Hooper imo.
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May 16, 2017 23:49
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Zay Jones over both.
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May 18, 2017 00:50
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Benne posted:Mitchell Trubisky is going to be trash This seems probable.
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May 27, 2017 01:43
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Spoeank posted:Yeah its pretty Riddickulous Nailed it.
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May 29, 2017 04:43
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Spoeank posted:FFS I'm working on a breakout/bounceback piece and most of my guys are on Evan Silva's list... Robert Woods, Eric Ebron, Jameis, John Brown Fear Ameer
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May 31, 2017 17:50
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My sleeper list every year is "dudes I have on my dynasty teams". The Winners Curse Problem is a bitch.
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May 31, 2017 22:41
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Who the gently caress is catching passes there this year. Can Tyreek even run routes yet? Somebody tell me about Jehu Chesson I guess.
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Jun 3, 2017 02:24
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Matt Harmon is freaking out about Albert Wilson. Is Bert taken yet as a FF nickname? Can't decide whether that would be preferable to Jehu Chesson or not.
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Jun 3, 2017 03:04
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Ground Control was not particularly kind to Doug Martin, Gordon, and Gurley in 2016. This is not in any way intended as a prediction (if they get volume and/or touchdowns they will be fantasy startable), but it does make me nervous at their ADP. edit: draft steals at current ADP in ppr are all in rounds 10-12 for me. Jordan Matthews (117), Marvin Jones (118), James White (123), Adam Thielen (125), Terrance West (127), Breshad Perriman (133), Jack Doyle (133), Duke Johnson (135), Kevin White (136) all seem crazy value right now. These dudes are basically free, and all have clear top-30 upside. Folks were also sleeping on Quincy Enunwa, but those days are probably over. Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 16:33 on Jun 7, 2017 |
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Jun 7, 2017 16:24
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Sataere posted:Maybe I am misremembering, but didn't ground control show Gurley getting hit way earlier than everyone else? I unfortunately can't distinguish dudes that get hit early but break tackles from dudes who have decent blocking, but Gurley definitely goes down earlier than average. It's actually gotten worse. In 2015, he went down a lot for 2-3 yard losses (Gurley in red, Average in Blue)  In 2016, he was going down for loss about the same proportion of the time, but they were for even bigger losses.  That's a pretty strong indicator of bad blocking. A dude doesn't go down for a 5 yard loss like that unless something really dumb went wrong. However, there's another problem. His rookie year, Gurley was one of the best in the league at breaking long runs.  2016, not so much  That combination is why his yards per carry sucked so much this year. But he still didn't look so hot even in my Game Surprisal measure, which a) treats all runs under 2 yards as equally bad (so he doesn't get dinged for the extra huge losses), and b) adjusts the value of long runs to be proportional to how probable they are to occur, not how far they go exactly (so he also is dinged less for the lack of home runs). Despite those adjustments, most of his games were below average from an efficiency standpoint:  (2015 are the red dots, 2016 are the diamonds, the red line is the combined moving average of both years, the blue line is league average. Games below the blue line are below average). Like I said - it doesn't look great. None of this is predictive of fantasy success, but it is enough to make me nervous of a valuable pick. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that volume is a) more stable from year to year (it's not implausible that Gurley could be good all of a sudden) and b) more important for fantasy. And his active run share was absurd:  He's just dominating carries. I poked around for a solid 5 minutes and the only comparable things I can find are Adrian Peterson 2013 and Alfred Morris 2012. Volume makes him useful, efficiency can change on a dime, and I have no idea how much Gurley is at fault for the down year. But it definitely was not a pretty year.
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Jun 8, 2017 02:50
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MrSargent posted:Goddamnit FP I love you but also hate you because you won the first year of our dynasty league. It's OK, I routinely get my rear end kicked in the other 2 goon dynasty leagues. Turns out I'm better at drafting and working the WW than I am at trading, but I can't help myself. The year before Megatron retired I gave Gordon, Parker, and a rookie 2nd for him. 
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Jun 8, 2017 13:16
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RVProfootballer posted:Please be Josh and not Melvin Melvin.
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Jun 8, 2017 15:00
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Recurrent concussions are one of the few injuries that will prompt me to avoid a guy at even a "fair" ADP given their expected value. The only time I have ever had shares of Reed in any league ever is when I could pick him up for free off the waiver wire.
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Jun 9, 2017 15:33
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Spreadsheet Wars goon dynasty league might be the funnest and most challenging league I've ever been in. QB Superflex RB RB WR WR WR TE W/R/T W/R/T W/R/T 1ppr 1.5ppr TE premium 0.2 per carry 15 bench spots 3 IR spots Auction startup. In-season FAAB. With 12 teams, that's up to 348 players rostered. You are digging deep. No kickers or defenses to deal with. Every position can produce a viable stud. Start 11 players a week. It's awesome. Love the goon contract leagues for different reasons but these scoring settings are great.
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Jun 11, 2017 20:26
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Spoeank posted:A deep sigh escapes my body as I am not the most recent person to claim a 49ers WR will be a league winner I still have Bruce Ellington on one of my dynasty teams. That was a fun two-week hype train last year.
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Jun 20, 2017 02:39
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Rotoviz gets the F_P stamp of approval.
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Jun 21, 2017 21:48
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Lammey : Latimer :: Harris : Joique loving Bell Everybody's got their guy I guess.
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Jun 26, 2017 20:54
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I'm honestly not sure how to project volume in the Pats backfield (as usual). It was hard enough when it was just Ridley/Vereen etc, but both White and Lewis can catch, both Rex and Gilly can pound at the goal line, and all three of Gilly, Lewis, and Rex can run. Like, I believe in Gilly's talent, and there's a scenario here where he takes the Blount role and then some, but there's also a scenario where this becomes the RBBC from hell. For fantasy, anyways. Gonna be fun as hell to watch as a fan.
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Jun 28, 2017 22:40
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89 posted:The beauty is that you don't have to burn a high pick to find out Yeah 6th/7th in ppr definitely seems reasonable.
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Jun 29, 2017 00:21
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Rad.
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Jul 1, 2017 00:46
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Sataere posted:My strategy is to draft good fantasy players. Which is way more optimal than just good players.  gimma all dem Kenny Britts and Bilal Powells.Why yes I'll just go ahead and help myself to some Emmanuel Sanders thanks for asking.
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Jul 3, 2017 22:23
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Benne posted:Gonna ride Eddie Lacy all the way to the championship True story Eddie Lacy is the single solitary player I have on literally every dynasty team. What I'm saying is that Rawls will have the single greatest RB year ever in tyool 2017.
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Jul 3, 2017 23:29
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JFC Randall Cobb is only 26. How is that possible he has been around for like a million years.
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Jul 7, 2017 16:49
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Seconded, read the rotoviz article. Also, this may be a bit pedantic, but a sprain IS a tear (specifically, to a ligament). Grade I is just a few messed up fibers, up to grade III which is completely torn apart. Not that this is a reason to fade DJ. Just thought I'd mention it.
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Jul 7, 2017 20:38
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Papes posted:I would take Antonio Brown, Julio, and OBJ over Zeke personally. Top 2 would be the only picks where I would invest in a RB and I strongly prefer DJ to Bell. This, but Bell 1 overall.
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Jul 8, 2017 17:08
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I mean, I'd feel pretty good about DJ / Gronk too. The 10 spot is where things get dicey for me. Current ADP has people starting Gordon / Michael Thomas
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Jul 8, 2017 18:57
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I've gone McCoy/Freeman a few times and simply given no fucks. Can't really fault ya for this. Good a choices as any to be top 5 RBs.
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Jul 8, 2017 19:23
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Pro football reference should be able to accommodate that.
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Jul 9, 2017 23:52
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RVProfootballer posted:Oh nice. I don't think I've ever gone too crazy with their filter, just used it to search like "players at position X drafted within Y pick range". Yeah they have searchable play by play data going back to 1992. It's pretty great. I actually wrote a script that could slowly scrape the entire rushing database for Ground Control but their policy on crawlers is a bit ambiguous and nobody has been picking up the phone so it's been left in limbo.
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Jul 10, 2017 01:56
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We hold these truths to be self evident, that Sammy Watkins will not finish as a top five wide receiver...
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Jul 12, 2017 18:32
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Spoeank posted:Final Tight End Ranks Um you forgot Austin Hooper. Rude.
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Jul 13, 2017 13:20
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pubic works project posted:Oh look...TE chat again... What I really want to know is if Tyler Higbee's SPARQ score makes him injury prone against a tough strength of schedule.
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Jul 13, 2017 19:21
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Do an IDP guy.
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Jul 13, 2017 23:33
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| # ¿ May 2, 2024 02:33 |
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Has anybody ever seen an analysis like this but for tight ends? These sort of conversations might be improved if we actually knew how easy it is to replace TE value off the waiver wire. I picked up Jordan Reed for free two years ago an it won me the league, but last year I went late on TE again and streaming was a goddamned wasteland.
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Jul 14, 2017 17:39
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