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Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Cody Latimer pepper-sprayed after slapping a bouncer at a strip club in Dayton, Ohio because he was refused entry after failing to meet the dress code. Latimer was attending the strip club with his uncle (who was knocked out in the altercation).

There's a video.

I feel like there's a lot to unpack here.

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Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Veritek83 posted:

cue Cecil Lammey telling us that this is the year Latimer breaks out (of jail)

"He's playing angry this year"

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Tyler Ervin hype train let's do this

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Here's an extremely vague and poorly-sourced allegation that Zeke may have been involved in a fight at a club last night (there's a rumor he punched the DJ).

I dunno the offseason sucks and maybe Zeke needs to take a chill pill and not do dumb things for a while.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Alucard posted:

I'm throwing in a plug for the SAS dynasty league - we need one more player for our 7th season and are starting our rookie draft this week. Check the thread: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3825100

This is a good league you should join. The goons that run it are awesome, contract leagues are dope, and the team you're inheriting (Beer's old team) has David Johnson on a long contract.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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RCarr posted:

I've never done a dynasty league before but I was going to start one with my friends this year. I was planning on doing an auction draft with a salary cap. Is that different from the contract league you are discussing above? Can anyone give me a few bullet points on the difference? Thanks :)

Dynasty auctions are rad, but anticipate many hours of drafting.

This particular contact league simply imposes time constraints on how long you can keep a player. Rookies all get five year contacts, in season pickups get two year extensions if you want to keep them, and veteran contracts are evenly split between 1, 3, and 5 years. You have one franchise tag you can use to keep an expiring player.

Salary cap leagues seem really fun and more strategic. Most leagues impose a conversion of auction values (usually inflating each year), or a pay scale based on performance. It's not uncommon to have a rookie snake draft in subsequent years, with a pay scale based on draft position. You can also combine this with contract years if you want.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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RVProfootballer posted:

What's everyone's opinion on Numberfire? I usually really like their longer, more in-depth articles, but don't often see them brought up in the various fantasy forums I read. Not sure if I'm missing something (like, if they're cribbing from Rotoviz or another pay site, I'd have no idea).

The content is often fine for a "rotoviz but free" site, but turning everything into a listicle slideshow to jack up hit count is pretty obnoxious.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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It really is a lot of duplicated work. And here I am still waiting for a Kerwynn Williams piece.

Hey Spoeank have we gotten your George Kittle takes yet?

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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pmchem posted:

Commissioners:

How do you deal with league privacy on myfantasyleague.com leagues?

I need people's email addresses in order to invite them to the league. Right? I can't see any other easy way -- is there one? But I would prefer that their email addresses are not publicly displayed (to random people viewing the league), or even shown to other league members. By default. How does one go about this?

Individual owners appear to have this option but I don't know about making "no" the default.



edit: also don't know about making it so that only leaguemates can see the email.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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The secret to 9+ starter 12-team leagues is depth. You want to be the guy starting rb3s and wr3s when everybody else is starting desperation wr5s in the flex.

I'd go into the auction trying to fill out a starting roster, possibly with one stud at wr, otherwise fairly balanced across positions without too much invested in any one player. After the starters, grab some cheap vets until you hit 11-12ish total skill players you feel reasonable flexing, grab a backup QB, and blow the rest on 1-3 good young prospects before finishing out with upside guys for a buck each at the end of the draft. This approach will put you in contention right away, but also leave you well positioned for the future.

Also reasonable to go high-variance and hope for luck. Take a stud QB and 1-2 young stud WRs, then fill your roster with lotto tickets. Any injury to one of the studs will tank the team, and you will lose most of the bye week gauntlet, but you will have years to build up lottery hits and rookie picks around the core.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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On that note, Hightower look gassed?

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Cutler has a cannon arm and Stills is the deep-ball ninja, sounds like a good match to me.

Just be wary of Cutler himself in -2 INT leagues.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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I'm so torn. On the one hand, Ground Control really, really thinks Rawls is a good player. On the other hand, Lacy is literally the only guy who somehow ended up on every single dynasty team I had by the end of last season.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Metapod posted:

Lol going all in on lacy

I honestly don't know how it happened. I am not that high on Lacy, yet somehow still accrued shares of him everywhere over a period of three years.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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In actual news, Martavis now cleared for preseason games http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000827603/article/martavis-bryant-cleared-to-practice-play-in-preseason

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Sanu just made a pretty dope catch.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Dion Lewis looks sharp (aside from a dumb drop). Routinely gaining more than he should. But playing this much this late feels like an audition. It's a bizarre situation: he's the most complete back on the roster but appears to be fighting for RB5 because he isn't the best at anything. Team of specialists.

Also don't take Gostkowski in the 11th or whatever was trendy last year.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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SouthShoreSamurai posted:

Because he looks bad? Where should we take him?

(I'm not watching the game)

Yeah there's a distinct possibility his form is still borked. Just wait and take a kicker at the very end like a regular person.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Marshmallow Blue posted:

He missed a 56 yard field goal.

Still though, I'll be targeting a different kicker this year. I don't think he'll be kicking many field goals

That wasn't a comment on his miss, it was a comment on his form! This was a good breakdown from last year.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Krazee Eyez Killa posted:

Sorry if this is the wrong thread but could you guys be so kind as to give your opinion on my team I drafted in a standard scoring NFL.com 10 team league?
QB- Cousins (10), Rivers (12)
RB- Freeman (2), Crowell (4), Gillislee (7), Peterson (11)
WR- Jones (1), T.Hill (5), Tate (6), Adams (8), Benjamin (9)
TE- Gronkowski (3), Witten (13)
DEF- Rams (15)
K- Boswell (14)

It looks alright. Good shot at making the playoffs but not a lock. In 10-team non-ppr I probably would have grabbed a QB over Gilly/Adams. Starting RBs are fine but I'm not crazy about the bench - you probably would have been better served taking one bye-week floor guy (Duke/Woodhead/West etc) and one upside guy rather than spreading the risk between two guys in muddy committee situations. The QB situation also isn't ideal for 10-team. That could be a good platoon but keeping both for the entire season really eats into your bench during the bye week gauntlet (10-team makes the waiver wire really important, but you're locked into carrying 2 QBs). Drop Witten and get an upside RB. But ultimately, I love the first 3 rounds and that makes up for a lot of minor inefficiencies in roster construction from the mid rounds.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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I hate all of this for literally all of the players involved.

The only winners I can see here are Zay, Agholor, and the Eagles DST.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Gurley's problem is Goff and a poo poo O-Line, not the receivers. Defenses can still stack the box.

Agree that Alshon and Ertz might get a handful of extra red zone targets each.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Metapod posted:

Idk how good mcvay is as an offensive mind but if the box is stacked he better tell Goff to audible to a Watkins streak route

The problem with going deep against a strong front is that you need a line capable of buying you the time to hold it that long against above average pressure, and a QB capable of making the throw. I'm not convinced the Rams have either.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Doltos posted:

I need to do my yearly rookie evaluation report to save people from plodders like C.J. Prosise and Devontae Booker. Samaje is in the same spot, Oklahoma only used him because Mixon sucked between the tackles.

Man what.



(source)

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

On paper it makes no sense. Cousins has shown he's a solid quarterback, the offensive line remains high quality, and while we lost a few pieces there are still plenty of weapons. But there's just something about Washington that's designed to make life miserable, and given the expectation that it's all going to fall apart at the end of the season I can't help but imagine that they'll get a head start on things.

The receivers are a pretty huge question mark. I could easily see Pryor-Doctson-Crowder-Reed be one of the best groups in football, but could just easily see a season where every receiver is pedestrian and Reed isn't playing for a dozen games.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Volume is king, and is way more stable year to year then efficiency. Gordon should be fine in the 2nd.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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His ADP is 9-10, wouldn't be too strange for him to fall past two of Freeman, Murray, Jordy in an odd draft. But yeah you're right it's a bit of a long shot with Zeke out of the first.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Man I'm not sure how I feel about any of those guys after Freeman at current ADP. I'm inclined to go WR in that range and take the likes of Miller/Crow/Hyde in the third. But other than Lynch I can't really argue with the rank order.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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RVProfootballer posted:

Why? Despite the Lamp injury, o-line can't be worse, right? Keenan being back, Henry having another year in the league, Tyrell being involved from the start, etc, all point to an even better overall offense than last year. Volume will be there.

Yeah, the situation is pretty darned good. But a dozen guys hit 1000 rushing yards last year and Gordon wasn't one of them (though 41 catches certainly helps!). Also pretty easy to see his touchdown numbers drop if more red zone options are healthy. He could easily live up to a 9th overall pick but there is risk that he doesn't.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Cervixalot posted:

Gordon also only played 13 games last year

My bad, genuinely forgot this.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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The piece of really great auction advice I've seen is to be aware that overpayment is most likely to occur when the number of bidders is high. It's a good reason not to start the bidding for studs at absurd steals: it encourages more people to get involved in bidding for that player. I like to start the bidding high enough that there's only room for one or two people to raise before the value seems fair. In eBay auctions, low starting prices often result in higher ultimate prices as people get invested in not losing the bid.

Anecdotally, I've found that players at the end of tiers tend to go for a lot as folks get afraid of missing out. I often try to get my guys before the tier runs out, or if the value isn't there, double up on the next tier down.

Also anecdotally, I've seen early QBs go petty cheap sometimes. People are so ingrained on waiting for QB, they get nervous dropping a good chunk for a QB as their first player.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Diggs for a buck is absurd.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Jonathan Williams

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Rotoviz just pumped out a bunch of good articles in the past 24 hours. If you've been on the fence about them, it's a good day to check out the headlines and see if it's the kind of thing that interests you. It's the only subscription I've ever spent money on for football.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Spermy Smurf posted:

What do they do?

Their niche is quantitative analysis that is actually pretty decent. There's a lot of trash numbers out there in fantasy football land, but rotoviz does a good job of identifying and exploiting the cases where statistics and machine learning are actually useful. Like, "how much regression to the mean do we expect for players that did x" or "what is the ideal team composition for an MFL10 (i.e. how many defenses, QBs, TEs etc to exploit the variance per position)" or "what do dynasty trades tell us about perceived player value" or "what is the historic performance of the TE3 and is Greg Olsen likely to hit it and live up to his adp".

But they're also perfectly happy to draw from the tape. This offseason, they interviewed a local beat writer for every single team about things like usage and role, offensive line quality and depth, camp standouts, offensive and defensive philosophy etc. They then spent a few minutes after each interview to numerically explore some hypotheticals guided by the beat reporter's observations (e.g. what the range of outcomes could be given the usage and distribution expected by the reporter etc.). It was a great series. Actually, I should mention that the podcasts are free, though there are a lot of them (a few a day) and only a handful a week are really worth carving out time for.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Butter Hole posted:

So they don't like Olsen? it feels so hard to lock up a good TE this year. Someone reached for Gronk (early second), someone reached for Kelce (early third). trying to stream TE was a nightmare last year. I spent a fifth rounder on Olsen and that seems like a fair price for consistency, but I guess we'll see.

Well, they make an argument that it would be unusual for somebody his age:

quote:

In a normal year, TE3 would require roughly 224 points. A TE doing that at age 32 or older this century has only happened twice, both of which were Tony Gonzalez. He’s also the only TE this century to record more than 114 targets, 80 receptions, or 900 receiving yards in a season at that age, something Olsen was three catches away (in 2015) from doing each of the last three seasons.

Other than Antonio Gates‘ 2014, where he had 12 TDs, Gonzalez is also the only TE at least 32-years old to record even 200 points in a season this century. There are only 27 instances of a 32-year-old-plus TE recording even 500 receiving yards in that time, and 11 of those 27 are Gonzalez and Gates.

And that Olsen differs from Gates and Gonz in that he has been slowing down in the back half of seasons after he hit ~30:

quote:

Something else that really sticks out with Olsen is his declination over the last three seasons in the second half of the year. This is obviously absolutely critical to fantasy success in any league that has playoffs, and we didn’t see this kind of back-half breakdown in Gonzalez nor Gates when they were the ages of 29 to 31, despite overall similar production:

<chart showing stats for 2nd half of seasons for past 3 years vs 1st half of seasons for Olsen, and again for Gates and Gonz. Olsen had nearly a 4-point per-game dropoff that was not present for the other two>

He wasn’t in the top-five weekly TEs any time after Week 6 last season, while we see multiple top-five weeks in the second half of the season from much cheaper options Kyle Rudolph, Martellus Bennett, Eric Ebron, Cameron Brate, Zach Ertz, and Charles Clay.

https://twitter.com/TJHernandez/status/900104044785446914

Over the second half of the year, Olsen was TE10, and in points per game, TE15. It is so hard to justify spending the kind of capital you need to acquire Olsen at a position where abundant options of replacement points are readily available on the waiver wire.

They go on to discuss Olsen's situation this year compared to other TEs that are going later.

There's a lot to like about Olsen, including his target floor, reliable hands, and track record of durability. But it's still a pretty high draft capital.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Sataere posted:

The problem with this analysis is it doesn't really take into account the situation of the team. By the second half of last year, Cam was beaten to hell and the Panthers as a whole cratered.

I'm leery of him at his current ADP, but I think a lot of the second half regression were due to factors outside his control.

They used the average of the past 3 years. But you're right that a lot of that was last year. Looks like for his age 29 and 30 seasons, the 2nd-half drop was "only" 2 points per game.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Lewis actually didn't appear to leave the field during the entire first drive, and lined up all over the place.

I don't know if that means anything but it happened.

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Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Ameer has been the best RB this game FWIW though.

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