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Spoeank posted:why is everybody so excited about the Raiders' #2 receiver This exactly. Throw in that the Raiders' TE corps has been pretty bad but now Jared Cook ahahah I can't even finish this sentence but eventually the team might find a third guy to throw the ball to, is my point here e. Just noticed Seth Roberts has two running 5TD seasons as well. I wonder what Cordarelle Patterson will do?
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Jul 1, 2017 21:43
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 21:11 |
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Exactly. This is what I'm taking huge issue with:Cervixalot posted:I'm of the opinion that you should invest in young players with proven production in the early rounds Amari Cooper has a couple 1000 yard seasons with 4-5 TDs. That's not at all remarkable to me and I've seen nothing - having watched almost all the Raiders games the last two years - nothing to suggest Cooper is on the verge of a breakout season. If you don't like Nelson, fine, but why would you take him over any of the several other young WRs with 1000 yard season potential on teams that hand a lot of TDs out to other targets? I think Amari Cooper is a solid second round WR pick in any format. He's not going to be the next superstar WR.
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Jul 2, 2017 21:56
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I mean, I also think youth is overrated in dynasty, but that's also an unpopular opinion so sure: go with Hilton I guess. I don't know as much about him and a-rob as I do about Cooper. Cervixalot posted:If you don't think two 1000 yard seasons before the age of 23 is impressive, then I don't know what to tell you. Sure it's impressive! Any receiver that is in the conversation of the first two rounds of the draft when they've only got two NFL seasons under their belt is impressive as hell. I just think there's a pretty good chance we are seeing Cooper's ceiling, at least while he's a Raider.
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Jul 2, 2017 22:54
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RVProfootballer posted:Whole argument against him just seems weird. He's 23. He saw more red zone targets in 2016 (17) than either Hilton or Doug Baldwin (both 16), and just a couple fewer than Evans (19) or Michael Thomas (18) or Antonio Brown (18). His catch rate on them was markedly worse than most of those guys, but from what spoeank showed, didn't seem too concerning. He had drop issues in his rookie year that he cleaned up a ton in 2016. Just seems like a weird narrative that his upside is capped due to his red zone usage or that he has already peaked. His peers historically had not peaked after this kind of production the first two years, and no one would say Baldwin or Evans couldn't be true WR1s due to too few red zone targets. I don't think it includes postseason. But, look who is at #3.
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Jul 3, 2017 02:59
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That article is sort of convincing me that, rather than zero-RB being the best approach, you should draft more RBs in the first few rounds. Because: 1. RBs should get injured more, meaning, healthy good RBs become an increasingly scarce resource throughout the season 2. WRs should get injured less, meaning, healthy good WRs remain a plentiful resource throughout the season 3. You still have to start two RBs. Zero RB says you will always start two mediocre RBs, and sometimes (if one gets injured, which is more likely than losing a WR to injury) you'll be forced to start a low-grade guy to replace your mid-round RB 4. Everyone knows about zero-RB, which means you'll still be trying to take your top RB under competition from the other owners, and similarly, those owners will be grabbing all the best WRs in the first three rounds, reducing your ability to get a good WR. If you can roster four good RBs, you'll still be dominating your opponents at RB even if one gets severely injured; meanwhile, since good WRs will remain plentiful and largely uninjured, the fact you rostered fewer of them from later rounds is less likely to leave you crippled by a WR injury. ...but really I think what I am taking away is, you should draft based on not doing what most of the other owners in your league are doing during the draft; a contrarian approach nets you bargains and you can shape your roster to account for the relative likelihood of injuries. And, secondarily, fantasy football is mostly down to luck, because not only is it very difficult to predict player injuries, even the rate at which players get injured is subject to high variance.
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Jul 7, 2017 21:22
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Yeah that stuff all makes sense, but based on playing fantasy in usually two to four leagues for five years, my experience has been "whoever drafted or grabbed off waivers the killer RB that didn't get injured" is the one who usually wins the championship. The best way to convince me otherwise would be to aggregate data for a few thousand players, dividing between players who drafted zero-RB and those that didn't, and see who wins the most championships. My money is on either "zero RB is worse" or "there's no significant difference." e. you could simulate this, but note that if your simulation is "one player does zero RB while the rest do ADP" that's not a valid test; you have to have the zero-RB player facing a real-world-correct set of opposing players, who would presumably react to the zero-RB player's strategy during the draft, and some of whom would presumably also be doing zero-RB.
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Jul 7, 2017 21:36
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Drunk Nerds posted:Too gadgety. A pass-happy offense like GB wants an RB who can north-south three yards on command, everything else is just a bonus. Although Ty is stocky, he just doesn't seem to have the shoulders to fit into the "first down with a cloud of dust" game plan. Last year, Ty Montgomery had 77 carries for an average of 5.9 yards per carry. Granted that was use as a gadget carrier, but still, that's Jamaal Charles-like efficiency. e. I honestly think the biggest issue is whether he learns to block. If he does, then we'll actually get to find out if he can be a "first down with a cloud of dust" guy; otherwise, he's doomed to third down/gadget plays.
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Jul 7, 2017 23:34
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Sataere posted:Nah, the biggest issue is the three running backs they drafted this year. That doesn't speak to the teams confidence in Ty Montgomery as a feature back. Very good point, although their highest picked RB was a fourth-rounder. Jamaal Williams could well be the heavyweight between-the-tackles guy with Montgomery doing third downs and such, and that's a significant risk. The other two guys, well, I dunno if they both even make the roster, particularly since GB also has a fullback (Ripkowski) and they picked up an UDFA guy (William Stanbeck). I'd guess Mays and Stanbeck don't make it, or if one of them does, Aaron Jones doesn't, and the deciding factor there is gonna be special teams play with none of them seeing much in the way of offensive snaps. So going back to your point... yeah, Williams could take the starting job, but Montgomery probably still sees lots of play in that event (maybe as much as... Tevin Coleman?) and barring injury, that's his floor. His ceiling is a three-down back with Williams coming in to rest him and those other guys filling in on special teams and occasional spot work.
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Jul 8, 2017 02:25
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Assuming the first six are bell, DJ, zeke, julio, brown, and OBJ, I like to pick fifth or sixth to guarantee an elite player and not miss out on a good second round pick.
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Jul 8, 2017 17:53
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Sataere posted:I like six myself because I get to pick from Zeke/Bell/DJ and ODB/AB84/Julio. History shows one of those three RBs is gonna flop and last year I was worried about the inevitable decline of AB84, but I'm over that. I was clearly wrong. I'd rather have the higher 2nd round pick at the turn. I could be pairing one of those six with Jordy, Ajayi, Howard or Dez and feel real loving good about my top choices. 
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Jul 8, 2017 18:34
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And then, what are you taking next, at the 26th/27th turn? I'd have a reallllly hard time taking RB-RB at the 12/13 turn, just because the next time you get to take a WR is a looooot of picks later.
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Jul 9, 2017 02:33
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uh yeah my fault, with 12 teams it's 36/37th that you get next. And I dont trust ADPs in July: too skewed by dynasty/keeper leagues and rookie drafts etc.
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Jul 9, 2017 03:29
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tsbicca posted:Anyone else playing in the Scott Fishbowl? I'm drafting 1.12 and the point per first down in throwing me off. Was originally planning to go QB/TE heavy since there will be position scarcity there. QB because its superflex and TE because most tight ends suck. That said I'm having second thoughts and thinking go RB heavy even if its RB7 & 8 might make sense. There are still 12 teams and that means minimum 24 QBs rostered of just 32 starters in the NFL. I would say you have to go QB-QB despite the first down points. After that, draft for value, e.g. if everyone else is going RB heavy, you can grab premium WRs, etc.
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Jul 10, 2017 17:30
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If only fantasy football figured out a consistent and reliable way to score offensive blocking, the tight end position would be so much more interesting and useful.
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Jul 13, 2017 17:04
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Pancakes by Mail posted:Edit: the lineup settings on offense are pretty weird, 1 QB/1 RB/1 WR/1 TE/2 RB/WR/TE flex, 0 ppr, but there's no way I should have landed those 4 receivers regardless You've got a really weird league but yeah you're probably drafting IDP guys way too early. There's a much softer falloff in IDP positions, and also way more value generally available on waivers throughout a season. In most IDP drafts I've seen, JJ Watt goes in a earlish round (maybe 3rd to fourth round) and everyone else goes much later. That said that starting lineup is fairly weird. What are your keeper rules? Those can affect things a lot too.
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Jul 13, 2017 17:23
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The question isn't how many points Mack will get you, but how many points are left among other players in that position once Mack is gone. If the falloff is steep, Mack is an early rounder; but if a replacement for Mack is readily available for only a tiny drop in points, he's not. In my experience, there has only been one or two IDP players (JJ, and only when he plays a whole season) for whom that is the case; otherwise, IDPs go late because there isn't the positional scarcity.
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Jul 13, 2017 17:36
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Hmm. I guess I'd want to see the numbers (this wasn't how it worked in the all-IDP league I played a couple years, nor in my dynasty league where we use IDP) but I'll accept that with this scoring maybe it makes sense.
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Jul 13, 2017 18:08
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Spoeank posted:I've been tasked with doing sleeper, breakout/bounceback and bust articles for each team and I'm stuck on the Bears because there are exactly 3 players being drafted and I'm not insane enough to call Jordan Howard a bust I guess talk about the UDFAs?
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Jul 13, 2017 22:27
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Connor Barth is the sleeper yo he is poised to break out (because the bears will be unable to finish drives)
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Jul 13, 2017 22:37
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I always have to remind myself that every year there's like four surprise TEs that were completely undrafted in fantasy that finish in the top twelve. Just pick one of them off the waiver wire and you're gold.
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Jul 14, 2017 07:23
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The NFL is an ongoing experiment in what happens when you give millions of dollars to men in their early 20s, it's kind of hilarious if you think about it. e. Also this is gonna be Run DMF's breakout year, finally!
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Jul 14, 2017 19:20
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Matt Zerella posted:That experiment has been going on in wall st for years. Yeah but with this one, every one of these young men are in a public spotlight. We get to actually watch it play out in real time!
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Jul 14, 2017 19:30
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D'Onta Foreman can't make $4500 bail?
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Jul 17, 2017 20:38
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Speaking of: "I Paid What for Who?," an all-goon 12-team dynasty league entering its third year, needs one more owner. Please post in our thread if you're interested. This is a money league. Dues are about $30 a year; five of that goes to MFL fees, the rest goes into a prize pool. This is the available team. It did... poorly, last year, so you'll be rebuilding for the future, but there are some solid values on the roster so it's not a total disaster. We run using a salary cap: the salaries you see on that page have not yet been increased for 2017, so they'll all be 10% (minimum $1) higher this year, and you have to keep your team under a $250 salary cap. We will be scheduling a snake rookie/free agent draft once we have our replacement owner. We do IDP, no kickers, fractional points, a taxi squad for rookies, FAAB bidding for all free agents during the season with an annual team budget, and we have a famous rules document written by yours truly that exhaustively documents the league rules. We'll be voting on rules changes in the near future as well, so you'll have an opportunity to help shape the league going forwards. This is a pretty fun and chill group with zero drama, and as is typical for Goon-leagues, it's relatively tough compared to playing with pubbie casuals.
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Jul 18, 2017 19:30
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subtract catches + drops from targets and you get uncatchable passes. I think that's a worthwhile stat to look at when deciding if a receiver was good or bad.
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Jul 19, 2017 17:39
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running backs should earn x points per run, where log2(yards)=x.
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Jul 25, 2017 19:23
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Yeah make a flex [qb/rb/wr] slot and you're effectively going two-qb, but not forcing someone to start the 20th-best QB every week if they load up on RB/WR talent instead.
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Jul 28, 2017 23:19
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RCarr posted:It seems like salary cap is absolutely the way to go for a dynasty league, but you can't really do that unless you do an auction draft. All my friends don't want to do an auction draft In the "I Paid What for Who?" dynasty league here, we did a startup auction draft, and then we do annual rookie/free agent drafts that start out with draft order somewhat determined by standings the previous year, and then converting to snake after the first two rounds. For that draft, salaries are determined by draft order: The first four picks in the first round are paid $20 The fifth through eighth picks are paid $18 The ninth through twelfth picks are paid $16 All players drafted in the second round are paid $8 All players drafted in the third round are paid $4 All players drafted in the fourth round are paid $2 All remaining drafted players (fifth and later rounds) are paid $1 Owners can trade their draft picks, and any owner can voluntarily skip a draft pick (which they'd presumably do if they feel no available player is worth the salary cost, or would have to do if they're already at their salary cap.) Before the draft, owners can drop players to free up slots. Every year kept players' salaries go up 10%, and we have a salary cap. We have taxi squads and IR slots, too, but we have not instituted a contract mechanic - something we might do in the future. This system isn't perfect. We're entering our third year and it seems like there's some players grabbed very cheap - like David Johnson - who will never be worth so much that their owner would feel pressure to drop them, meaning it's a permanent lifetime slot. So probably we'll need either some kind of increasing progression of salary, or imposed maximum contracts, or something like that. You can see our entire current ruleset here. As for host: we did our first year on ESPN, and then moved to MFL. MFL costs money but it's worth it for dynasty; it can track player salaries and allow you to mass-adjust them, track and impose a salary cap, has far more options for things like taxi squads, scoring, FAAB and other free agency stuff, has much better flexibility for your draft, etc. etc. The UI is indeed terrible, but its one saving grace is that everything is well-documented. Every single widget, field, page, etc. has one or more entries in their help center, so if you just take the time to read what you need to read, you can figure out. Also while there's no "official" MFL app, there is an app, and it's not bad. Look for "MFL Platinum" on the iStore or android marketplace.
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Aug 1, 2017 23:47
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Papes posted:The packers also literally let their top two running backs from last year walk. They weren't going to open training camp with 1 running back on the roster. Exactly. Ty Montgomery is clearly a risk for the Packers: he's shown very promising ability with the limited number of snaps he's gotten, but the GM cannot just assume he won't get injured, can handle a full season of not just running with the ball, but picking blocking on passing plays as well. You roster three or four RBs in your 53-man year round, and you want a couple more guys in the spring to maybe develop or stick on a practice squad. Most NFL teams have five RBs and a couple FBs right now. That said: GB management is right, and Ty Montgomery is a risk. I've grabbed him in a couple leagues in like ~3rd round, but I don't like him as a first round pick and I think he's in danger of being overvalued right now. Is he talented? Unquestionably. But for a first round pick in most formats I want a proven, healthy, reliable player with a good opportunity. Ty has the opportunity and the talent but he has not played 16 games as the starting 2-down or 3-down RB. And he won't, unless GB is satisfied that he can block. e. Also it's worth pointing out that while Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones were higher picks, Devante Mays was a 7th round grab. By the 7th round, you have guys who are just competing to maybe make the roster if they show good work on special teams or can surprise bigtime by beating out a higher-round pick (who would then wind up practice squadded). And William Stanback is a UDFA former UCF star who was thrown off the team for failing multiple drug tests before going to VUU. He will probably not make the team. Barring injuries, I expect GB to start the season with Ty as the starter, Williams and Jones as relievers/3rd down subs, Ripkowski as the FB and short-yardage/goal line back, and Mays on the practice squad. That is going to feel like a really shallow RB situation and if Montgomery doesn't show big improvement at blocking or gets hurt, they may have to go to free agency for someone to fill in. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Aug 2, 2017 |
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Aug 2, 2017 19:19
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Papes posted:Montgomery is a top round pick now? The last time I drafted I was able to take him in round 7, granted it was a superflex. LOL I looked at the below post too quickly and didn't notice this isn't the first fifteen picks, it's the first fifteen RBs. Tiptoes posted:Current PPR ADP per Fantasy Football Calculator. So he's going late in the third and that sounds... reasonable to me, given his upside vs. risk.
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Aug 2, 2017 19:43
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One keeper per year just means everyone is keeping their first round pick and you're basically skipping the first round. Which especially sucks for anyone who like, picked 10th in your first draft. You're handing the first few teams Zeke, David Johnson, OBJ, Brown, etc. forever. In my opinion you need to have: more than one keeper (or why bother), have keepers cost some round's pick that escalates each year (so a fifth round pick kept costs a 4th the following year, then a 3rd the year after, etc.) and maybe make it impossible to keep a 1st round pick from one year to the next.
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Aug 2, 2017 20:10
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Yes, that's our league. If you had AB and he was too expensive, one option would be to drop him during the regular season: he'd then go on FAAB, and you could bid on him along with the rest of the league. You would have to keep him within your cap space until then, though, unless you had the foresight to drop him before the last FAAB of the season the season (which also means you're not competing for a championship...). Alternatively, you could trade him to an owner willing to deal with his really high salary. That would be the only way to guarantee value for him... but in theory eventually his salary should be too high for every owner, and at that point you're back to dropping him. However, you've probably identified a legit issue. We came up with those draft values kind of out of our asses and we're now entering the third year and might adjust them. Last year, there were no high-value free agents that got dropped; this year there might be, but we haven't unlocked yet so I dunno. You could definitely do an auction draft instead of snake. The main reason we do snake is to give teams "draft picks" they can trade, but that's not necessarily a really great reason. So far we've only ever had a single draft pick get traded.
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Aug 2, 2017 22:20
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Jeremy Kerley and Anquan Boldin have been the only good Niners WRs in the past three years. And Kerley is "good" in a replacement level sense of being adequate, not like, elite in any sense.
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Aug 3, 2017 19:16
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I will say that you can't really avoid reacting to what the other owners are doing. Make a plan, but if other owners are overbidding for the specific players you wanted, you may have to accept getting someone you didn't like very much for a cheaper price. Also, it pays to preserve a little extra for the late rounds: once you're down to $1 per slot left and that's it, you're absolutely at the mercy of any team that has even one dollar more than you. If you have 10 slots left, having $20 instead of $10 left in the bank means you can outbid most of the other teams for every late round guy you want, and that $2 salary going up by 10% a year is not going to hurt you any extra until 5 years go by.
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Aug 4, 2017 17:53
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Also anyone with a poo poo ton of concussions, like reed, is potentially one concussion away from ending their career... whether they think so or not.
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Aug 6, 2017 07:49
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Players always want to play. Narratives claiming otherwise are toxic and horrible lies promoted by owners and coaches who don't give a poo poo about what happens to players once their use has been squeezed out of them.
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Aug 6, 2017 17:30
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I'm expecting the niners to win like maybe four or five games, and if they had an actually good quarterback they'd maybe be able to win six or seven. They don't, though, so four or five. I'm going to be surprised if the bears win a single game, and the jets are looking maybe just as bad. The browns... well I have no idea really, there are a handful of good players there in theory, but in practice they have to implode spectacularly because browns. So let's say three fluke wins?
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Aug 8, 2017 02:02
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So if those are the tier B guys, who are the tier A guys? Here going by FantasyPros ADP we have: Rodgers Brady Brees Ryan Luck Wilson Carr... so with Carr on Drunk Nerd's B-tier list, that implies everyone above Carr is Tier A, and we can fill out the Tier B guys who could be "steals": Newton Stafford Manning Dalton Wentz Palmer Watson Smith Bortles Flacco Bradford ... Of those, I'd say Stafford could be fine, Manning is a high-upside pick and especially attractive if your league doesn't heavily penalize interceptions, Palmer is potentially a steal, and I'm suddenly wondering about dark horse candidate Jay Cutler. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Aug 8, 2017 |
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Aug 8, 2017 22:11
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This year Rivers has a horrible commute and is going to be pissed off and sleep deprived for all his home games.
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Aug 9, 2017 02:42
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 21:11 |
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No but seriously I want to know what this thread thinks of Jay Cutler's Miami Dolphins, and also are Landry/Parker/Stills/Ajayi owners hosed now too?
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Aug 9, 2017 02:54
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