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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah exactly.

In a 12-team league where everyone owns at least 4 running backs, that's 48 owned running backs. 38th-best means he has to be owned, and if he's on the wire, he's definitely a candidate for pickup for any team that needs a waiver wire running back.

He's the starting lead back on an NFL team. At any stage of the season, any such man must be owned. That does not mean he's an exciting guy to start or anything: but no such exciting starting guys will be on the waivers in most leagues in the late season.

Admit it, Sataere: you remember him being awful as a niner, you know in your heart he must still therefore be awful as a seahawk, and this is preventing you from recognizing that he's actually a useful player that should be owned in most formats.

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

It's completely academic to me, everyone you guys ever mention in your articles is already owned in my dynasty league, and generally also in the fish bowl league, due to very deep benches. I'm just joining in on the argument for the sake of it.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Spoeank posted:

Out of curiosity and knowing what level of player I'm working with in that type of environment, could you post the best 5-10 players on the wire at QB/WR/RB/TE? I have only one Dyno league with the fantasypros guys and it's only twelve teams and the benches aren't huge.

Also it me the fantasy guy who hates dyno leagues, AMA.

Sorry for not replying earlier, I worked like 14 hours yesterday and today is looking equally lovely.

Here are the top free agents in my 12-man dynasty league. We have 24-man benches, plus two IR slots and three taxi squad slots (rookies only). And we are going into week 2 of the playoffs, with a lot of eliminated teams, so the contending teams are focused on winning now and the rest are likely looking hard at rosters for next year, rather than caring about waiver pickups for the next two weeks:

Ranked by points weeks 1-14, and separated by position:

QB:
Manning
Cutler
Hundley
Fitzpatrick
Hoyer
Gabbert
Savage
Glennon
Moore
Osweiler

RB:
Smith, Rod
Vereen
Williams, Kerwynn
West, Charmander
Charles, Jamaal
Sims
Rodgers, Jacquizz
Yeldon
Cunningham
Grant, Corey

WR:
Benjamin, Travis (hasn't cleared waivers yet)
Patterson, Cordarrelle
Grant, Ryan
LaFell
Brown, Jaron
Thompson, Deonte
Wright, Kendall
Erickson, Alex
Cole, Keelan
Humphries, Adam

TE:
Davis, Vernon
Kroft
Ebron
James, Jesse
Lewis, Marcedes
Dickson, Ed
DeValve
Celek
Gresham
Fleener

Other notables that didn't make the above lists (a lot of these guys are on IR, or spent a lot of time injured this year: the rest I'm mentioning because they've been discussed as waiver options or hopefuls at some time this year, that I recall):
Sam Bradford, Geno Smith, Paxton Lynch, JJ Nelson, Torrey Smith, Pierre Garcon, Albert Wilson, Bennie Fowler, Eric Decker, Taylor Gabriel, Brandon Coleman, Roger Lewis, Johny Holton, Jordan Matthews, Terrelle Pryor, Brandon Marshall, Mike Tolbert, Terrance West, Akeem Hunt, Eddie Lacy, Bobby Rainey, Robert Turbin, Zach Miller, Ricky Seals-Jones (hasn't cleared waivers yet), Martellus Bennett, Ryan Griffin, Vance McDonald, CJ Fiedorowicz

You can look at the whole league in detail here: http://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2017/home/79286

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

If you started with Yahoo, you hate ESPN (because it's wildly different and you're lost trying to do anything). If you started with ESPN, you hate Yahoo (for exactly the same reasons). This is how people always react with obtuse, horrible user interfaces: it's the root of the ancient vi vs. emacs debate, for example.

All fantasy football websites have horrifyingly terrible user interface designs. I'd say that's a huge business opportunity, except I don't think hosting fantasy football leagues is a money-making proposition... even MFL which charges for leagues probably doesn't make much, and oh by the way, it's UI is mind-bogglingly bad, especially when setting up nonstandard leagues (which is the only reason to use MFL in the first place).

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

figures a filthy emacs user would say something like that

i bet you use spaces in your code instead of tabs, too

I'm just kidding if I used either of them I'd be using emacs, I don't code, and I prefer ESPN to Yahoo, marginally

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Alfalfa posted:

Championship game in 2 leagues
3rd place game in my BML (lost 2 weeks by a total of 1.5 points...)
Sitting down in the bottom of the pile because my team didn't figure it out until week 9 in the Goon Beer League

Anytime I make a championship game, I always like to look back and see just how different my roster is from what I drafted. Figured it would be worth posting here.

Draft:

QB: Carson Palmer
RB: Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, Doug Martin, LeGarrette Blount
WR: Julio Jones, Mike Evans, TY Hilton, DT, Alshon Jeffery, Jamison Crowder, DeVante Parker
TE: Delanie Walker
D/ST: NYG :lol:
K: Phil Dawson

My team is in the championship:

QB: Aaron Rodgers (picked up in week 13), Alex Smith
RB: Kareem Hunt, Lactavius Murray, Mike Davis, Jerrick McKinnon
WR: Michael Crabtree (picked up when he got suspended), Devin Funchess, Mike Evans, Robert Woods, Alshon Jeffery
TE: Kyle Rudolph (via trade), Greg Olsen (picked up week 11)
DST: Jaguars
K: Greg the Leg

2 people that were drafted still remain on this team.


Mike Evans is also on both teams.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

So is the sit/start thread dead or what, because suddenly this thread is like 80% sit/start?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

RCarr posted:

Wouldn't that result in an endless cycle of any stud that is dropped being bought for $80+ out of $100 FAAB, and then being dropped before the next draft because no one can afford to keep them?

Maybe, but if someone wants to dump $80 of their annual FAAB budget during the preasason on one player for one season, they're gambling their entire year on not needing any of the hot commodities that will inevitably crop up on FAAB during the year. So there's a tradeoff, and dynasty is all about trading off success now vs. building for the future.

Also, if you are paying a stud less than $80 and drop him and he goes for $80 in the free agent auction, then you likely missed an opportunity to trade him for something of value, instead of letting him go for nothing in return.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

RCarr posted:

No one can afford any player for $80 of their salary cap, but everyone can afford them for $80 of their FAAB. There's a huge difference. It would be stupid not to spend $80 of your FAAB on a guy like LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, Antonio Brown, etc. I would do it every year without question. A (nearly) guaranteed top 10 player for the whole season is more than you can ever ask to spend your FAAB on.

Also, one top ten player helps you win this year. but what about the future of your team? the opportunity cost is being unable to get the breakout players that will pay dividends for the next decade of play.

If your plan is to win this year, yeah, take that guy assuming you have the cap space. If your plan this year is to find future value, an $80 stud in the preseason makes less sense.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I mean that's all theoretically possible, but that's part of the fun of dynasty: you get multiple years to test out your theories.

For the record though, we have no free/$0 bidding in this ruleset, your minimum cost is $1; and, I think you guys are underestimating how many $5-20 values come up during the season. A $10 player who winds up being a starter is a potential value for a decade at +10%/min +$1 annual progression. And then there's the opportunities when someone gets angry about an injury and dumps a star, lol, but don't count on that.

Just some examples from the past year in my league:

During the free agent auction, these guys were the top (in terms of price) guys picked up;
Dez Bryant, $54
Gronk, $48
Lamar Miller, $38 (tI did this and regret it, the next highest bid was $37 so I barely got him but he did not return this value)
Marshawn Lynch, $27 (and then subsequently dropped, and someone else got him for $1 in November)
Luke Kuechly, $12
Eric Decker, $9
Jordan Matthews, $9

Then during the season, here's a sampling of most of the pickups that I think were significant (I'm leaving out a lot of IDP guys but mentioning some names I think might wind up being good values):
Sept 6, Adam Thielen $9, Adrian Peterson $2, Devin Funchess $2, Morgan Burnett $1
Sep 13, Alex Smith $12, Nelson Agholor $12
Sep 20, Rashard Higgins $8, Chandler Jones $7, Zach Miller $1, Matt Forte $1, Eric Ebron $1, Charles Clay $1, Ben Watson $1
Sep 23, Jordan Poyer $2, Allen Hurns $9, Markus Wheaton $1, Trent Taylor $2
Sep 27, Jeremy Hill $11, TJ Ward $2, Cameron Jordan (NOS DE) $1
Sep 30, Aaron Jones $16, Geronimo Allison $4, Jay Culter $3
Oct 4, Martellus Bennett $1, Austin Seferian-Jenkins $1, Cameron Heyward $1
Oct 7, Josh McCown $6, Jacquizz Rodgers $5, Jaron Brown $4, Terrance Mitchell $1
Oct 11, Shane Vereen $3, AJ Bouye $2, Mike Wallace $1, Trey Flowers $1
Oct 14, Alfred Morris $8, Martellus Bennett $3, Brian Hoyer $1 lol, Michael Bennett $1
Oct 18, Case Keenum $2, Orleans Darkwa $7, Ed Dickson $1
Oct 21, Sam Bradford $24, Jordan Poyer $1, Chris Ivory $1
Oct 25, Micah Hyde $2, Deonte Thompson $2, Marshon Lattimore $1, Kerwynn Williams $1
Oct 28, Odell Beckham $46, Carson Palmer $5, Danny Trevathan $1, Yannick Ngakoue $9??
Nov 1,Kenyan Drake, Jimmy Garoppolo $11, Damien Williams $4, Travis Benjamin $2, Jay Cutler $1, Jason Pierre-Paul $1, Cameron Wake $1, Glover Quin $1, Julius Peppers $1, BJ Goodson $1, Josh Gordon $1!!!
Nov 4, Brett Hundley $6, Marshawn Lynch $1, Rex Burkhead $1, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix $1, Jared Cook $1
Nov 8, Terrance West $2, Cole Beasley $2
Nov 11, Vernon Davis $1, Ryan Fitzpatrick $1
Nov 15, Theo Riddick $5, Brandon Marshall DEN LB $2, Jared Cook $1, Chris Ivory $1, Alec Ogletree $1
Nov 18, Devontae Booker $1
Nov 22, J.D McKissic $3, Corey Clement $3, Jamaal Williams $2, Bruce Ellington $2, Dontrelle Inman $1, Chad Williams $1, Jordan Poyer $1 again
Nov 25, Paxton Lynch $3, Ricky Seals-Jones $1
Nov 29, Martavis Bryant $6, Josh Reynolds $1
Dec 2, Peyton Barber $1
Dec 6, Mike Davis $2, Trey Burton $2
Dec 9, Marquise Goodwin $3, Ben Watson $1
Dec 13, Kevin White $1
Dec 20 (final waiver run for the year) Eric Ebron $1, Keelan Cole $1, Carlos Henderson $1, Tion Green $1, Tahir Whitehead $1, Sean Davis $1

If you only had $20 in leftover FAAB going into the season, you'd definitely have missed ODB and Sam Bradford, and would have had difficulty bidding away a big chunk of your remaining pot on Jimmy G, Aaron Jones when he broke out, Alex Smith after his first game of the season, Adam Thielen, and maybe some of the other interesting guys in the mix. There's still tons of $1 guys in there who may pan out, and you'd be able to bid on and get them, of course. But you'd need to be in a win-this-season mode, and have the cap space, to pick up an $80 stud and then you may have to rely on trades to fill in any key gaps that come up with anything better than like a $5 pickup

Oh one more thing,

RVProfootballer posted:

guaranteed season long stud

There's no such thing in fantasy football. See: Odell Beckham, David Johnson, etc.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Feb 3, 2018

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Yeah the taxi squad is gonna change this summer, per the vote, but the rest of that stuff does hold. And yeah 40 man benches holy jebus that's deep as hell.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Zauper posted:

Yeah but we're also adding another starter and.. One roster spot? So the ratio gets slightly worse. At least it's a flex.

Btw what would you think about changing the offensive starters to be more similar to the D? One required per position, rest flex instead of 2 RB 2 WR plus flex

Bring it up in the league thread, for sure. I'll have to think about it a bit but my first impulse is sure, why not.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Evans was super disappointing this year and there's no sign that Tampa Bay is gonna get a better quarterback so you are selling low on him with a higher salary than he deserves. You need to find someone desperate for a WR3 and pretty much take any offer you can get.

I would also keep crabtree over cooper, despite cooper having a couple of huge games last year he was and will be super inconsistent on TDs. Let him be someone else's problem. Crabtree probably scores fewer overall points, but he gets more volume which is good in PPR, and he gets more endzone looks generally which is good generally. When Carr is healthy you can start Crabs every week as your WR2/3 and that's what you want at his salary point.

DT is getting old and even if they get cousins I would not want him at his current salary either. He probably has more value after Denver completes offseason trades and their drafts, so probably hold onto him until after that happens unless you have to clear cap space immediately.

I don't like Luck even at $13, given you also have goff bort and keenum. Maybe draft a rookie QB. I'd find the one guy in your league who is still 100% sure that when Luck comes back finally he's gonna be elite, and trade him for anything you can get. Failing that I'd dump him and then see if you can pick him back up in the free agent auction for $5 or something, if you're that Luck truther. Personally I think there's a 50% chance his career is already over and another 25% chance that he'll never play the same again and will just be an anchor for whoever owns him.

Assuming you get rid of Evans and a couple other midprices players (especially Cooper), that should give you the cap space you need for your draft picks plus a couple of less expensive free agents.


e. I still want no part of the Ravens RB corps, and there's no guarantee Collins will be the RB1 there next year. Your salary for Jefferey might be a tad high but I don't like that trade.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Feb 9, 2018

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Alfalfa posted:

Is this a superflex league?

Because if not, I would be moving 2 if not 3 of those QB's for value yesterday.

I can tell you from my experience that having fewer than 3 QBs in dynasty is a recipe for disaster. They're just too frequently injured and the replacement level on the wire is dire.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Sataere posted:

You can't trade Luck, because you are negotiating from a position of weakness and his salary is too good not to roll the dice on. You won't get good enough value. And you absolutely have to roster a minimum of three quarterbacks in dynasty.

I feel like one of the most common and incorrect assumptions made by fantasy football posters on these here forums is that all fantasy football players make reasonable decisions, despite enormous evidence to the contrary. It's always worth exploring the possibility of fleecing your fellow owners in your league.

If there is a Luck Truther in your league, they might be happy to trade for him.

And, there is a vast universe of ignored middle between "he's done" and "he's an elite dynasty QB".

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

I think in auction redraft leagues when I nominate guys I want for $1 too early, I tend to get some jackass bidding $2 just to look me up. I try to make a longer list and mark a few I'd pay $2 for if someone else nominates them first, and then just get whoever is left once I've run out of money.

Note: this may be a bad strategy, lol

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Poque posted:

I feel like the only person here who doesn't want anything to do with Mike Evans

Yeah. I've got him on my dynasty team and I'm really worried. I feel like all of his value has come from ridiculous volume but that he's not actually a top-10 NFL wide receiver talentwise, and that the Bucs are not going to keep trying to run their entire offense based on feeding him the ball constantly.

That doesn't mean he's worthless, and just refusing to touch him ever is an over-reaction. But, if anyone else in your league is willing to pay him as a top-5 WR, let them take that risk, in my opinion.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Epi Lepi posted:

Bucs fan so I'm obviously biased, but y'all are triggering me with the massive disrespect for Mike Evans. "Disappointing season" still ended with 1K yards, and he had an injured Winston or Fitzpatrick throwing to him for 10 games.

Dude has amazing body control and catch radius, and he's fast for a man his size.

Mike Evans is a top 5 receiver in the NFL and I will hear nothing against him. :colbert:

Now the Bucs as a whole and Winston's consistency is a whole other story...

This is the person in your league you wanna trade Evans to for some good value pieces.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

My evans is $37 salary, so $41 next season, and that's far more affordable. I may still decide to move him, though, I haven't really started figuring out who I want to cut ties to. I'd certainly entertain offers.

A lot is also gonna depend on whether I decide to target a free agent or rookie WR this year. Haven't put much thought into that yet, either.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Where do we put Julio Jones now

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

my dynasty team is in tatters




OK not really but I've seen a few players drop in value in the last three days and I'm not liking it

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

powell deserved a chance to be a bellcow and he never got it
olsen I think is gonna be a big downgrade even if he plays, because everyone knows now that he's not gonna take big risks in his final year and his team will have to start working in some kind of replacement TE1, so I think he becomes a JAG level TE regardless now.
ebron is my other TE,just a backup while olsen was (too often) hurt. I usually dont want to carry three TEs, so if neither guy retires I probably have to dump one or the other regardless.
I had crabtree for $3 this year which was a huge value for derek carr's favorite red zone target. Now, I just don't know.
maclin I dont really care, he's just a fill in bench guy to me
I also have jalen richard, who i hoped could step up if beast mode isnt the guy any more, but now they have hamster so who knows what is gonna happen with that poo poo, I have zero confidence in john gruden.

all that said, deshaun watson is coming back, so I'm still gonna win the championship this year

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