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Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

He also just tore his ACL again, so yeah, he's done :/

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Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

MFL is your best bet for dynasty.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

It's May - dynasty talk time my friends. Normies don't start showing up in this thread for another month or two. Slow draft and MFL chat will be upon us soon.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

I think both Winston and Mariota will get a ton of hype coming into the season and their ADP will be priced closer to their ceiling, making them less a value.

Meanwhile, Andy Dalton, who has a Top 5 QB season in his history, and who had some surprisingly excellent seasons derailed by injury the last few years will be an underrated QB value this season. Bengals added some speed in John Ross, and a dynamic RB in Mixon to chase Jeremy Hill to the bench and challenge Gio for pass game work - plus AJG and Eifert. The only potential roadblock is a weakened O-line.

There's my too early QB hot take.

Quarterroys fucked around with this message at 01:52 on May 9, 2017

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Ben Roethlisberger is a do not own for me. Misses 2-3 games per year, and absolutely atrocious road splits. I'll let someone else ride that name brand carousel this year.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Joe Williams is shooting up boards because of the Shanahan hype narrative. I'm personally staying away at an early second round cost. Hyde is still pretty good, and a nice dynasty buy right now IMO.

I would take Kamara, Perine, Hunt, Foreman and probably Jamaal Williams over him, personally.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Seconding love for superflex/2 qb rookie drafts.

I got Kizer at 2.09 (traded Perriman plus 3.08 for Sanders plus 2.09, which I felt great about), and Chris Godwin at 3.03 in my first rookie draft of the year.

I am going to end up with a lot of Christian McCaffrey at 1.03 this year. Here's hoping Carolina can make best use of his considerable talents and versatility, and that Curtis Samuel is used more as a field stretcher/injury hedge on CMC.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Spoeank posted:

Obligatory 2017 Christine Michael Hype Piece

Also asj getting a dui and crazying his way off the team was out of my control 💩

Didn't you hear? He is sober and turning heads at OTAS. https://twitter.com/rotoworld_fb/status/869738502937772032

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Melvin Gordon owns, YPC is an overrated and misleading metric. He caught a bunch of passes, broke tons of big plays, and yes, scored a bunch of TDs. Chargers invested into the o-line in the offseason, and added no RBs of note to challenge his workload, so it's wheels up on MG.

His TD upside might be down slightly with so many weapons (red zone threat Mike Williams, HH, old man Gates, Allen and T. Williams), but the Chargers should be a much better team this year (they were pretty unlucky last year) and have more leads/scoring opportunities. Gordon should be drafted in that second tier of RBs this season with no reservations.

Shady/Murray/Gordon/Ajayi/Howard (though i hate Howards lack of pass catching)

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Congratulations Ravens, Bears, Bills or 49ers

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Zeus, that's who. Kelce gonna eat

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

If you want to hear coach/camp narratives about why players will be good in fantasy, listen to the Audible. Get ready for hype trains.

If you want to hear film analysis of why players will be good in fantasy, listen to the Harris Football podcast. Get ready to have cold water poured on your hype trains.

If you want to hear analytics and metrics-based analysis of why players will be good in fantasy, listen to Rotoviz Radio. Get ready for dry delivery, but smart and balanced takes backed by numbers.

Each have their zealots, and there are plenty of other pods out there that delve into each school of analysis to varying degrees, but those three exemplify each area best IMO.

Rotoviz has some of the smartest content out there, and their AIR yards metric was super useful in identifying trade targets in-season last year.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Spoeank posted:

Christopher Harris is loving garbage.

He's smart but can't formulate an argument and talks himself in circles trying to backfill the reason why he does or doesn't like a player.

He doesn't trust Devonta because he's "too small"

Yeah he's an old man yelling at the analytics kids to get off his lawn. It sure how much of him I will be able to stand of him this season.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Papes posted:

After reading the scoring setup for the Scott fish bowl this year, I'm very intrigued by a points per first down league that doesn't completely overvalue running backs.

It does sound awesome. We should do a cheap ($10?) goon run version of the SFB this year. Maybe best ball? In-season management could be cool too.

Quarterroys fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Jun 28, 2017

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

RVProfootballer posted:

Especially when Lance Dunbar is the competition. I'm cautiously optimistic about Dunbar as a free add in deep dynasty leagues, but let's not get ahead of ourselves before seeing him on the field again.

Lance Dunbar tore his patellar tendon last offseason and was not the same player last year. I think people are getting too hung up on the Dunbar = Chris Thompson narrative, and think Gurley will still catch plenty of passes. LAR also improved their o-line this offseason, FWIW.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Cooper over Jordy in dynasty and its not close imo. Not just because of age, but liquidity. Jordys trade value is going to continue to decline each year as he continues to age into his 30s, and as the dynasty community continues to place a premium on youth, you're less likely to find potential trade partners as he continues to age into his 30s. One bad season and his value will plummet (see Brandon Marshall), while guys like Donte Moncrief who havent proven anything still carry high trade value, and give you a long runway to get out before the bottom falls out and you're stuck holding the bag.

If you think Jordy is going to continue to put up WR1 seasons for the next 2-3 years, you're betting on an outlier, and giving yourself fewer outs by investing in a declining commodity.

I'm of the opinion that you should invest in young players with proven production in the early rounds with room to maintain/grow their value, and spend mid-late round capital on undervalued veterans while the rest of the league takes shots on low odds rookies/fliers.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Leperflesh posted:

Exactly. This is what I'm taking huge issue with:


Amari Cooper has a couple 1000 yard seasons with 4-5 TDs. That's not at all remarkable to me and I've seen nothing - having watched almost all the Raiders games the last two years - nothing to suggest Cooper is on the verge of a breakout season. If you don't like Nelson, fine, but why would you take him over any of the several other young WRs with 1000 yard season potential on teams that hand a lot of TDs out to other targets?

I think Amari Cooper is a solid second round WR pick in any format. He's not going to be the next superstar WR.

If you don't think two 1000 yard seasons before the age of 23 is impressive, then I don't know what to tell you.

Here's a list of comparable players who put up similar receiving numbers to Amari Cooper in their first two NFL seasons, using Rotoviz's Screener App:

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

*punts Rotoworld blurb into thread*

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Don't trade Russell Wilson for that. You're trading what is a top 5 dynasty qb in a format where they are worth gold for two random first round draft picks, which while nice assets, have a lot of uncertainty.

Wilson is a probable QB1 for at least 5 more years (likely more) and goes in the second round of 2qb dynasty startups alongside guys like Hilton/Michael Thomas/Winston/Mariota/Melvin Gordon - to give you a gauge of his value. You should be getting a king's ransom to move him: a solid younger QB plus draft picks/players, or 1:1 for an elite WR or RB.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Off the top of my head:

Ebron hurt his hamstring, how bad who knows

James Conner looked good in the first team offense but hurt his shoulder

Devante Parker has rainbows coming out of his rear end in a top hat again this season

Dalvin Cook looking good running with Vikes first team

Bucs backfield may be a committee even when Dougie comes back

Andrew Luck probably starts the season on PUP - or misses a few games at least (Tolzein time)

Same with Flacco possibly, Ravens considering signing Kaep (for real)

CMC crushing it in camp, his ADP gonna be tok high in a month if it isnt already (like Ameer a few years ago)

Gio is healthier earlier than expected and practicing, making the Mixon show more murky

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

coronaball posted:

This is not accurate based on what is known right now.

Although if I was drafting today, he's still hands off. Let someone else deal with it.

A bit of reading between the lines/projection on my part, but read this article and tell me it sounds like Luck is going to be ready Week 1:

http://www.indystar.com/story/sport..._medium=twitter


Negative news/pessimism is worth paying close attention to during training camp amidst the sunshine and roses puff pieces that are written about seemingly everyone. They are laying the groundwork for him to miss a few games to start the season IMO

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Marshmallow Blue posted:

And did you get ALF until Zeke is back?

Alf is like the 4th string RB for Dallas now. McFadden is the clear cuff

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Zeke suspension announcement coming today(probably), early word is possibly 6 games :aaaaa:

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

There was an article at Rotoviz that looked at careers of suspended players, and based on the study, if a player is suspended, they is a 50% chance they never step foot on the field again. I need to find that link.

Also, https://twitter.com/cole_kev/status/896020608869388290

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

RVProfootballer posted:

Why? Despite the Lamp injury, o-line can't be worse, right? Keenan being back, Henry having another year in the league, Tyrell being involved from the start, etc, all point to an even better overall offense than last year. Volume will be there.

Workhorse volume of touches, heavy pass game involvement, big play breaking potential and plenty of goal line carries on a team that figures to have a strong offense with lots of positive game script makes it hard to see a scenario where he finishes outside the top ten RBs, barring injury.

He may not be on Bell or DJ's level in terms of talent, but he's still a pretty good player, and in one of the best overall fantasy situations for an RB in the league. If people want to dismiss him because of YPC or other bad box score scouting arguments, I'm more than happy to have him fall to me.

At this point, I have a hard time not selecting Gordon as the #3 overall RB.

Zeke is missing half the fantasy season

McCoy might be in the trading block, and Buffalo is looking like a dumpster fire who might be starting a rookie QB fairly early on

Freeman is still splitting touches with Coleman, and the Atlanta offense is almost certainly going to see heavy regression after putting together a historically great season

I have been a big buyer of Ajayi this season as a great end of second RB tier pick, but Miami's o-line is worrisome, and the potential for a terrible offense if Cutler implodes or gets hurt brings concerns as well

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Forever_Peace posted:

Yeah, the situation is pretty darned good. But a dozen guys hit 1000 rushing yards last year and Gordon wasn't one of them (though 41 catches certainly helps!). Also pretty easy to see his touchdown numbers drop if more red zone options are healthy. He could easily live up to a 9th overall pick but there is risk that he doesn't.

Gordon also only played 13 games last year

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Chris Carson 🐐

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Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

Carson is a solid flier for the end of your bench, as he has looked very good in the preseason so far. He's shown to be a solid pass catcher, and a physical runner - and successful on the goal line.

Yeah, he's a bit down on the depth chart, but Rawls and Prosise cannot seem to stay healthy, and who knows if Lacy is going to do anything - he has been uninspiring so far this preseason.

Evan Silva has him ranked in the DeAndre Washington/DukeJ/JStew tier FWIW

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