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Only suggestion is add the link to that rules post that is a work of art
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Apr 30, 2017 00:35
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Leperflesh posted:
Beer, this is what I was talking about.
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May 2, 2017 21:14
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drizzle posted:Looks like Perine is getting a pretty good bump in Waldman's Post draft Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I can see a pretty big hype train for him by the time training camp is over. I think he was always gonna be a bottom of the first / top of the second guy in dynasty. Or do they have him higher? This is my first year trying to break down the draft / dynasty. It's gonna be interesting how my projections rank against the experts.
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May 3, 2017 00:05
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drizzle posted:Don't want to give too much away or anything but he's fifth overall in his rankings now So your saying that I should forward his rankings to all my friends in my dynasty league? Because that's what I am hearing. Fifth overall is insane. I'm not convinced he's the fifth best running back. Just curious, big could you post his top ten overall from last year? I was perusing through his website, and I am intrigued, big not sure I agree with his methodology.
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May 3, 2017 03:34
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drizzle posted:Sure Interesting. That is very different from a lot of the projections I saw. I can't fault him too much. He liked Treadwell as much as I did.
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May 3, 2017 04:12
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Teemu Pokemon posted:Treadwell is another in a long line of lovely Vikings WRs who can't run routes or catch passes. And also the Vikings are bad. This team has never once in its existence known how to evaluate WR talent and the two best WRs in their history they got for pennies on the dollar specifically because no one else wanted them. To be fair, that was the list going into dynasty draft last year. A lot of people, myself included, liked Treadwell. Of course, I'm an idiot, so maybe you are right.
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May 3, 2017 14:42
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Teemu Pokemon posted:If my TE posts weren't enough indication, hate sustains me It was still a bad list. Dixon over Henry was absurd and Goff in the top ten was dumb. RVProfootballer posted:Eh, looks contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. Goff wasn't going that high even in 2 QB leagues, and would be curious why he had Doctson so low, when I think he was the one out of the consensus top 3 WRs that most people agreed should be there (Treadwell definitely the one that consensus worried about most). Just kinda worried it's throwing contrarian takes out and then getting credit for the ones that hit, like how I want to say "but credit to him for having Henry higher than most, dude looks awesome." I'm not sure I buy the contrarian for the sake of being contrarian school of thought. If anything, it shows his willingness to look at things objectively and not let consensus sway him, which I respect. I don't think draft and fantasy evaluations should be encouraged to follow the consensus, because they are all very wrong all the time. If he was contrary to a guy whose rankings were spot on 90% of the time, it'd be one thing. But nobody is that good. Being right 50% of the time probably makes you some combination of Einstein and Nostradamus. I think the flaw is his rankings seem to be based solely on scouting, which is a bad way to evaluate players in fantasy.
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May 3, 2017 17:36
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RVProfootballer posted:When you say you don't buy the school of thought, you just mean in this instance, right? Not that no one does it? I don't believe in Santa Claus, I don't believe in the Tooth Fairy and i dont believe in Skip Bayless!  Yeah, in this instance.
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May 3, 2017 23:18
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RVProfootballer posted:Alright, dynasty trade time. Zeke is too good to trade, unless you get a boatload of talent and I don't think draft capital is enough. I mean, 4, 6 and 11 could be nice, but you are essentially trading a top five dynasty piece over the next five years for three lottery picks. And this is coming from someone who likes this first round a lot.
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May 4, 2017 02:07
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RVProfootballer posted:Cool, thanks for the input. I tried to get him to do his 2018 1st instead of 1.11, but no luck. His QBs are rough (Flacco, Palmer, Savage), so even though he was runner up last year, chances are that 2018 1st would be more middle of the pack. It's a great strategy. I adhere to it also. But you need to do it in a way that makes you stronger long term and minimizes risk. What does your current roster look like?
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May 4, 2017 02:29
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I remember saying a month ago Fournette would be the number one and it seemed everyone was favoring Cook. Glad to see I was on point with that.  I agree with your top three currently, but I also think this is a great year to trade down if you can swing it. Cook and Mixon could easily end up being top picks at RB in this draft and Williams and Ross are strong first picks at WR. I think this draft lacks a Zeke, but last year felt like the drop off after four was huge. This year, I think the top nine all have great upside. I think any trade you make should also net you an RB or TE upgrade alongside picks.
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May 4, 2017 06:26
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RVProfootballer posted:Cook's combine and draft day slip have spooked a lot of people, maybe too much. Williams I hate the landing spot, and some were already souring a little on him as a prospect (want to say his vertical and arm length were pretty poor?). It was such a weird real NFL draft with that top 9 too. Yeah, I haven't started really looking at stuff in detail yet. I have spent the last two months just taking notes on what to look for, trying to figure out a solid methodology for valuing players. The problem is, I don't think it's a one month project. I have so many variables I want to play around with that it is all very daunting. It's been about 6 years since I've nerded out this hard over fantasy sports. I think Ross and Mixob have some serious questions too. The opportunities are absolutely there for a lot of production with a great draft. This feels like a very deep rookie class. I'm very happy that I have the 1.01, 2.01, 2.04 and 2.06 this year.
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May 4, 2017 16:28
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Spoeank posted:Alright gentlemen: Ryan is a prime candidate to get overdrafted. I think losing Shanahan is going to cut down the offensive numbers in Atlanta across the board. Mariota is my preferred prospect of the two, because he can just straight up dominate at times. I feel like his highs are higher than Winston's and his lows are higher too. He's an interesting combination of safer and more explosive. EDIT: I decided to look and see if my feeling was right. So even though Winston beats out Mariota in yards, Mariota gained 7.6 yards per attempt, putting him in the top ten for quarterbacks. Winston averaged 7.2 YPA. Moreover, despite throwing the ball 25% more times, Mariota had more big plays. 50 plays to 43 plays of 20+ yard passes and 7 plays compared to 4 plays of 40+ yard passes. That's an 11% chance to have a play of 20 yards or more, compared to 7.5%. I haven't even looked over his rushing totals. This just made me mad that I traded Mariota two years ago in my dynasty league for the corpse of Marshawn Lynch. 
Sataere fucked around with this message at 19:41 on May 8, 2017 |
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May 8, 2017 19:16
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Ben Nevis posted:I have to wonder a bit if Erotic Smashmouth will keep Mariota's counting stats low despite better rates. I'm not sure I'd expect much change this year, just because I don't think rookie WRs are going to change it all in year 1. I think he will be better this year, but not significantly better. I think in two to three years, he could realistically see top tier status. I also think year two of Derrick Henry and Tajae Sharpe will help and I don't think we can assume rookie receivers just won't contribute right away anymore. The last few years have shown that the learning curve for these guys is significantly less steep than it was even five years ago.
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May 8, 2017 20:34
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Teemu Pokemon posted:This is kinda where I am. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Mariota is a legit QB1 who can win you a league with a good draft, but I would be really surprised if he ends up higher than like QB7 unless he does some crazy Cam stuff on the ground. The per attempt numbers will definitely be there, but I'm not so sure about the counting stats I think the nice thing about him is he was pretty consistent for most of last year. He is definitely one of the guys I am targeting in the middle rounds. I think the nice thing about the way Tennessee is built is they are making it easy for him to be successful.
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May 8, 2017 21:31
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If Winston and Mariota get bumped, that's gonna push other QBs down. The way I see it, you should be able to get great value on one of these guys Rodgers Brees Brady Luck Roethlisburger Rivers Cousins Carr Wilson Mariota Winstron poo poo, in a 12 man league, I am amped as gently caress to get any of those guys in the 7th or later
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May 9, 2017 05:35
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Cervixalot posted:Ben Roethlisberger is a do not own for me. Misses 2-3 games per year, and absolutely atrocious road splits. I'll let someone else ride that name brand carousel this year. There are guys that are on my do not own list from there. I'm just saying QB is deep as gently caress.
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May 9, 2017 14:46
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Leperflesh posted:lol your league is stupid Leonard Fournette is off Leperflesh's board. EDIT: He is right, it's way too early for a rookie draft.
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May 9, 2017 19:21
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Ben Nevis posted:Just draft Tarik Cohen for as many picks as you can. If you touch him, I will cut you.  Spoeank posted:May rookie drafts are fine, nerds I'm not saying you have to wait until the preseason, but it's nice to get a couple of mini-camps in to sift through the later rounds.
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May 9, 2017 20:42
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RVProfootballer posted:It's just more information that everyone else gets too. You'll be sifting through the same garbage in the later rounds either way, as anyone that shines a little will move up the draft board. I'm already sifting through it anyway, but some of my opponents won't. I always err on the side of more information.
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May 9, 2017 21:04
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Spoeank posted:Ultimate Josh Gordon buy low today imo My crafty dynasty addition is falling apart on me!
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May 11, 2017 20:10
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I wouldn't sell Fat Rob short. He seems like a steady, reliable plodder that teams could love. Frankly, I want no parts if the Washington dysfunction.
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May 16, 2017 05:34
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Joe Williams is interesting. My thoughts on drafting is just get the guy you think is going to be the best. Almost everyone in your rookie draft will end up bad. At least pick the bad guy you like the most.
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May 16, 2017 06:43
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I blew up my dynasty team this year, so I have 1.01, 2.01, 2.04 and 2.06. Looking at this draft, I am super stoked at my second rounders. I'm hoping that I can trade down from 1 to acquire some more picks, but I will be happy if I don't. I find it interesting that Joe Williams is getting hyped up, but Kamara isn't, despite Sean Payton trading up for him. He's the sneaky dynasty value, imo.
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May 16, 2017 14:28
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See, I don't like Davis that much more than Fournette, Mccaffery or Cook. I think they are all interchangeable. Hence my willingness to trade back. Is Davis now the consensus number one over Fournette/Mccaffery? I didn't think that was the case a week ago. To be clear, when I was talking about Kamara, I think he is still undervalued for the bottom of the first. I think he'll likely end up being one of the top three players in this draft down the road.
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May 16, 2017 18:32
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Spermy Smurf posted:I'm seeing Davis as the #1 everywhere. The logic seems to be more along the lines of "I'll take Davis #1 and have a great player for 6 years or more. If I took one of the RB's they'd likely be hurt and out of the league in 3 years." Yeah, it makes sense. I was already leaning that way. The problem is, receiver is my strongest position (barely) Oh well, I will have my rankings set up soon. I think this weekend, I am going to nerd out
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May 16, 2017 20:06
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To think I could've had Jordan Howard, instead of a second this year.
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May 16, 2017 20:26
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Henry Hunter gonna be the next Gronk.
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May 16, 2017 20:37
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It was from the slow draft thread. A couple of the rookies just got picked, and I was curious how often rookies contribute at that position. I'm inclined to believe they were picked too early. Then again, that methodology is flawed, because it assumes equal round means equal talent.
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May 16, 2017 20:51
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RVProfootballer posted:It's not great, but there aren't a ton of better spots. I'd rather see what he does in the next 1-2 years with a good QB, can always sell him on if I think he won't produce after Rivers. Though I think I actually do like Ross more than lots of dynasty people I've seen. A WR taken at pick 9 in the real draft has been falling to at least that far in some drafts. I think a lot of people criminally underrate where people are drafted in dynasty. Will Fuller was drafted in the second round of a lot of fantasy drafts and he was a first round pick. That's crazy, because he's going to get way more opportunities to succeed than the fourth rounders drafted ahead of him.
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May 18, 2017 06:38
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Benne posted:I thought we learned our lesson about not trusting WRs named "Mike Williams" by now I am legitimately avoiding him for that reason. Because if he does well, it's just whatever. But if he's bad, I should've known better.
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May 19, 2017 03:01
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RVProfootballer posted:Somewhere in the late 2nd to late 3rd in a typical offense-only 12 team dynasty with like 20-30 roster spots is reasonable. In 2 QB or superflex, late 1st is reasonable, though he's gone as high as 5 in some of mine. In redraft, not. I think a case could be made for early second in 12 man dynasty. That he's gone fifth in some drafts already is crazy.
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May 26, 2017 14:56
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Leperflesh posted:Do you guys set rookie salaries by draft position in your dynasty leagues? If you have salaries, isn't it an auction?
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May 26, 2017 20:26
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Benne posted:Mitchell Trubisky is going to be trash Mitch Trubisky is going to be the greatest quarterback in Bears history.
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May 27, 2017 01:29
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Sataere posted:Mitch Trubisky is going to be the greatest quarterback in Bears history.
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May 27, 2017 04:41
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:Yeah that's what benne said I just wanted to make sure I was being clear.
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May 27, 2017 07:39
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Spoeank posted:What does Matt Asiata's signing mean for Zach Zenner's dynasty value, my column (warning, LONG): Let me save you some trouble. Same value as Josh Gordon.
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May 28, 2017 18:43
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Spoeank posted:
Yeah, I got the joke. But I also have Zack Zenner and Josh Gordon on my dynasty roster. Why yes, I was in last place last year. How did you guess?
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May 28, 2017 18:59
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My gut instinct says that you should be calculating the overall value of the contract. Two years at $10 is worth $5 per year. Four years at $6 is $1.50 per year. We have our dynasty salary cap league arranged as a base value and all contracts are 3 years. FAAB free agency, so you have a value for guys you pick up and that's the three year contract. After three years, there is an option that increases an additional 10% every year. So in year four, the salary is 110% of the previous year value. Year 5 is 120%. Etc. Etc. It's a good system that values managing your salary cap. Although technically, you are allowed to go over if you pay the luxury tax penalty of $50 on top of any additional money paid towards a contract. This league is designed to make people put RL cash into the league throughout. If you are all gamblers. 
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May 28, 2017 21:04
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| # ¿ Apr 30, 2024 14:45 |
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Zombie Tsunami posted:Full disclosure: don't have a ton of empirical data to back this one up, but I have a feeling that, outside of Theo, the Detroit Lions backfield will be nothing more than Ameer headache this season. Ameer was a decent RB2 last year until he died.
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May 29, 2017 18:09
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