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Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Spoeank posted:

I think at this point Mariota is just the better player, but Winston has everything he needs to succeed.
I agree with this. I'd give the edge to Winston this year but believe Mariota is the better dynasty value. I just think TB did a great job acquiring additional weapons for Winston with D-Jax, Howard, and third round WR Chris Godwin added to the mix. So much funslinging, it'll be hard to resist. I want to see Mariota stay healthy too. Not that I see him as injury prone but the injuries have been an issue so far. drat if he isn't a future stud though. It's just a matter of time until he's one of the top QBs in the league. What I really want is infinite shares of Corey Davis right now. I'm excited to see what Mariota can do with a legit WR1.

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Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
https://twitter.com/SInow/status/846389999293599744

He's not coming back because we don't deserve him. :cry:

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
Fat Rob had a great Weeks 8-11 but was really pedestrian outside of that. He's also a former UDFA who earned his "Fat Rob" nickname in college. Washington spent a 4th round pick on Perine so that alone ought to give him the leg up on Kelley. Seems pretty clear to me the organization has a higher evaluation of Perine.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Sataere posted:

Joe Williams is interesting. My thoughts on drafting is just get the guy you think is going to be the best. Almost everyone in your rookie draft will end up bad. At least pick the bad guy you like the most.
I'll second this. No need to hold to rookie draft ranks if you like a dude more than others. Re-ranking the same players a year or two from now will look a LOT different.

I'm definitely interested in Joe Williams too. Shanahan is one of those coaches where if he's handpicking a mid-round RB, I'm not forgetting that name.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
I might consider OJ Howard if he drops far enough. Like maybe if I I'm down to deciding between him or Jared Cook in the 13th. I could see him carving out a red zone role in Tampa Bay's offense. Cameron Brate probably outscores him though. And I'm definitely not touching Njoku or Engram as rookies.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
I'm kidding about Cook. I'm all about that Jack Doyle action this year.

#TeamDadRunners

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
I kinda think I'm leaning Williams over Ross myself. At least in redraft leagues. I think in dynasty I'd prefer Ross cause I always love to gamble on dudes with elite traits. But my gut leans Williams right now for 2017.

I'm not sure I buy that the Bengals are poised to immediately take advantage of Ross. They're poised to run more with Mixon in the fold so we'll probably see a reduction in Dalton's attempts. And they took some hits on the o-line when they lost Whitworth and Zeitler so Dalton may be under more pressure as well. So I'm down on Dalton compared to the rest of the fantasy community. And while I have no reason to doubt Ross' talent, I think we've seen plenty of other lighter-framed speedsters struggle to make immediate impacts or have to deal with minor injuries in their rookie years. Not busting but just being solid/unspectacular at first. CBs in the NFL are bigger, faster, hit harder, and will play you more physically at the line of scrimmage so that poo poo can take some adjusting to. Brandon LaFell is also definitely going to play more than anyone watching wants. His blocking on run plays will probably see to that.

Mike Williams might be in a worse spot on paper at the moment but really all he needs is for a Chargers receiver or two to get injured to get him a real chance and that's 100% going to happen, right? I mean yeah injuries are inherently chaotic in nature but the Chargers, and Keenan Allen in particular, have had some real poo poo luck going back a while. If Allen or Tyrell Williams went down, I think Mike steps up. Or if just Allen goes down, I think Mike could carve out a valuable role opposite Tyrell with Travis Benjamin acting more as a deep threat option. It would be kinda like when Keenan Allen was a rookie. He had a great rookie year but started it way down the depth chart (in a "hadn't proven poo poo yet to coaches" sense) until injuries took out guys in front him. So I have a not entirely rational feeling Williams will be luckier.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
If you can't find it in your hearts to love a SPARQ-y white runningback with a double-Z name, then I don't know why you even play this game.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
I like the faith Detroit showed in their RBs in the offseason. Invested in their offensive line in free agency but didn't bring any serious RB competition. Definitely puts me in the mind that Abdullah was ready to make a jump last year and Detroit knew it before his season was derailed by injury. They've left a lot of opportunity there for him.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
https://twitter.com/terezpaylor/status/870785402084278272

I did not see this coming!

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
I don't think it's crazy to have doubts about Kelce. He wasn't a truly dominant TE until the second half of the season and his season high for TDs is still only 5. I can't dismiss the idea of Andy Reid and Alex Smith finding new and frustrating ways to underuse him again.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Benne posted:

Second round

13. Jordy Nelson
14. DeMarco Murray
15. Jay Ajayi
16. Michael Thomas
17. Todd Gurley
18. T.Y. Hilton
19. Dez Bryant
20. Rob Gronkowski
21. Lamar Miller
22. Amari Cooper
23. Aaron Rodgers
24. Leonard Fournette

Gurley at 17 is an awful leap of faith -- he deserves some blame for the Rams' offense bottoming out. If he was going a round or two later I'd take the plunge, but I don't like that price for a guy who's been more name than game for 1 1/2 seasons. At least TY is finally getting drafted where he deserves, I can't get a bargain this year. :( Gronk is also a leap of faith, but when healthy he's the undisputed TE1, so it makes sense. Don't draft Amari in the second when you can get Crabtree 2 rounds later for similar or better numbers. Fournette ... well, better hope he lives up to the hype at that price.
Agree about Gurley/Cooper; they're not worth this price. I'm high on Dez and Gronk at these spots. First round talents with injury discounts are always tempting. Just need to prep for the worst in case. I could be sold on Fournette but I can't currently buy him at a 2nd/3rd round price when that offense has a pretty high risk of being dysfunctional.

quote:

Third round

25. Brandin Cooks
26. Marshawn Lynch
27. DeAndre Hopkins
28. Doug Baldwin
29. Isaiah Crowell
30. Tom Brady
31. Alshon Jeffery
32. Spencer Ware
33. Allen Robinson
34. Carlos Hyde
35. Davante Adams
36. Terrelle Pryor

Marshawn is my favorite football player of all time. He's also 30 years old, hasn't played in a year and looked like an injury-riddled washout his last time out. Uh, good luck taking him at 26. Hopkins seems like a lock to outperform his ADP without Brock making GBS threads up the field. I don't like Hyde in this spot, given all the smoke about him not fitting into Kyle Shanahan's scheme. Pryor is fun but risky drafting that high.
I would take Isaiah Crowell before either Gurley/Fournette... but in the top 30? That doesn't sit right with me but I might do it. Not touching Pryor in the third either. Everyone is really high on him but I'm not sold. Cooks is being taken too high; he won't be bad but his share of the Pats offense won't be large enough to satisfy this high of an ADP. Really a lot of these names should be going later than the third. I think Baldwin is my favorite target here. Or maybe Brady. You could probably take Brady anywhere in the draft and it'll be worth it.

quote:

Fourth round

37. Demaryius Thomas
38. Sammy Watkins
39. Travis Kelce
40. Eddie Lacy
41. Drew Brees
42. Keenan Allen
43. Adrian Peterson
44. Doug Martin
45. CJ Anderson
46. Tyreek Hill
47. Jordan Reed
48. Michael Crabtree

I pity the fool who takes an old/overrated RB stuck in a lovely committee. AP and CJA should be hands-off on any sensible draft board. Fat Eddie is now on my team so I have to be a homer for him, but even I wouldn't draft him in the early fourth round. Keenan would be a bargain if he doesn't crumble to dust (he will). I feel like Tyreek will be exposed as a No. 1 WR, but he'll still bust enough huge plays to not be a total waste.
Watkins and Allen feel like great buys at these prices. I love to gamble on elite players returning from injury. Thomas is priced well here but I think I'd rather have Sanders a round or two later. I need more training camp info about AP/Martin/CJA to decide now but I'm not scared by a 4th round ADP. Just need to hear the right things first. Not touching Lacy here; Seattle showed they can't pull off magic with their garbage o-line every year and I'm not convinced Rawls can't outplay him. Also if I'm sitting at 4.11 and Jordan Reed is there, I'm taking him every time. Unless he gets injured before drafts, then I'll take him several rounds later. He really ought to stop playing football but I'll keep drafting him until he does.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
https://twitter.com/ChrisRaybon/status/867019791768272897
https://twitter.com/ChrisRaybon/status/867030117016580097
https://twitter.com/ChrisRaybon/status/867030594689040385

If Jordan Reed is going to sacrifice his life playing this dumb sport, I must respect that and make his sacrifice worth it by drafting him everywhere. It's just too tempting to gamble on him, target TE2 streamers mid-season for backup help, and end the season with strong production from my TE spot.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
Weekly upside matters in a season determined by weekly matchups.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Spoeank posted:

so does weekly downside when you're taking a player in the first four rounds and you have to stomach that you've wasted that pick for 50% or more of the year.
If he didn't have the positional advantage of being a TE, I wouldn't be as high on him. But that poo poo matters in weekly matchups. I trust in my ability to build and acquire RB/WR depth so swinging for the fences at TE is worth it when he hits. Those multiple TD games are week winners. If I lose Reed to injury or can't trust him enough to start him, I'm streaming TEs and not doing a whole lot worse than half the league still. There's going to be a lot of turnover in the bottom of my roster throughout the season anyway, especially in the first few weeks, so just being a little more aggressive about finding a solid TE2 isn't so hard. Especially if I just snag Jack Doyle in the 12th round to pair with him.

VietCampo posted:

Y'all are silly, just wait til the 12th round and grab Ertz, it's his year.
:nono:

Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 08:08 on Jun 9, 2017

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

coronaball posted:

Marlon Mack gets a little more appeal as a late round flyer/cuff.
A little but he's mostly just a dynasty stash. He's not a handcuff as Robert Turbin is still the #2 in Indy for now. Maybe a midseason waiver pickup if something happens to Gore.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Cervixalot posted:

If you want to hear coach/camp narratives about why players will be good in fantasy, listen to the Audible. Get ready for hype trains.
Lammey and Bloom are bad about this but The Audible still gets props from me for Dr. Jene Bramel and Matt Waldman. Bramel is one of the better guys around at interpreting injury information. And Waldman basically has an informed opinion about every dude buried on depth charts on any team. That's super useful even if not every guy he notices is a must-add.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Spoeank posted:

Ya boy just got offered $150 to put 500 words on cbs digital's scout.com about the fantasy football prospects of the jacksonville jaguars

Gonna go hang out with prisco now
Nice. Make sure to tell people that the only Jaguars worth their price in redraft are probably Allen Hurns and the defense.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
Hurns is basically free in drafts is the only reason I'm tempted. He's still one year removed from a 1,000-yard season with 10 TDs. Even has 19 scores in his first 42 games through three seasons. Expectations are low and I think he's a decent bet to exceed them by a healthy margin.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
The Fantasy Footballers have a great ongoing bit where they argue that Perkins would have a ton more hype going for him if he wasn't named Paul Perkins. And they're not wrong. That's 100% the name of an accountant, not a football player. If he was instead named Smash Jackson, I would take him nearly anywhere in the draft.

I'm still sad that Storm Johnson washed out of the league.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
PFF had him as the most elusive player in college before he was drafted. He can create on his own as a runner so I don't think the state of the Giant's o-line will kill his chances. Wouldn't be the most unexpected sophomore jump. Though I do agree it's probably smarter to believe in the conservative projections for Perkins since he's not built like a feature back and since this is the Giants, they could easily go with an ugly looking committee at RB.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Ayudo posted:

In fact, I'd take Ingram in the 6th before I even took a whiff of perkins.
And this is why Perkins is a value. You get a starting RB where other people are targeting backups.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
Regarding Gallman, this is from Giants running backs coach Craig Johnson:

quote:

“Coming from college, he was a very productive runner,” Johnson stated. “Stats don’t lie. So far what I’ve seen in practice is that he has been effectively able to run the ball in the runs he’s been given. The pass protection, he’s coming along in. He’s certainly made a big improvement in the last week or so. He’s been able to catch the ball effectively. Again, as a young back, he’s trying to figure it all out. The game is a little too fast for him, like they are for every back right now when they’re young. The game starts to slow down and he’s starting to get it. I’ve seen a couple bursts. I think he will continue to get it in the future.”
He's not ready to pass protect at the NFL level. Don't expect him to see much use in his rookie year.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
This was PFF literally a year ago after the Giants drafted Perkins:

""Don't Be Surprised If Rookie Paul Perkins Wins The Giants' RB Job" posted:

Former UCLA Bruin Paul Perkins dropped all the way to the fifth round in the draft as the running back position continues to be devalued, but we at PFF had a late-second-round draft grade on him as the third-best running back in the class. As a junior in 2015, Perkins led the draft class in both rushing grade and elusive rating, which is PFF’s measure of how productive a back is independent of his blocking.

Some have said Perkins cannot be very successful as an inside runner or without a good offensive line due to his 5-foot-10, 208-pound frame, but his tape from 2015 shows a different story. He works well in small spaces and can consistently make defenders miss in the hole. Perkins averaged 3.6 yards after contact, tied for second-best in the draft class. He forced 73 missed tackles as a runner, second to only Heisman winner Derrick Henry of Alabama, who needed an extra 160 carries to get to 76.

UCLA’s offensive line was a mediocre run-blocking group at best, with half of their top six offensive linemen grading negatively. Perkins often had to avoid and beat defenders in the backfield, and already proved to deal with it better than almost all college running backs. He was contacted behind the line of scrimmage on over a quarter of his carries, one of the highest rates in the nation, and still averaged 3.5 yards after contact on those 61 runs.
He was well-liked coming out of UCLA. I like targeting dudes like him who are liked by draftniks but have quiet rookie years. He was solid but not great but the team's confidence in him grew over time. And you see that further in the offseason when he's given the starting job. They announced that more than a month ago. They don't bring a vet and while they do get a replacement bruiser in Gallman, he's no threat as a volume play. So he's well priced in the middle rounds and probably has more talent than people realize. Jennings was always an underrated RB play when he was healthy and I don't see why Perkins can't be similar.

So why do you think he is so bad?

Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Jul 12, 2017

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
You don't throw out a young player's college analysis just because his limited rookie year sample didn't impress. You have to factor in everything and acknowledge how the player is growing. That's how everyone missed on Devonta Freeman's sophomore breakout; even people who liked him coming out of college considered him trash after his rookie year. I take grades from limited samples on a case-by-case basis and if a player ends the year in a better place than how he started it, then I'm not going to worry so much if the full-season grades aren't real generous. The same website a year ago had him as the most elusive RB in his draft class with an ability to gain yards even when getting met in the backfield, so he has skills that can translate to success even behind a below-average line. I'm not just going to forget that part as Perkins is still that same player physically. Sometimes those skills don't translate immediately as guys have to get used to the speed of the NFL game. So I just don't believe those grades tell the whole story of Perkins' game. They don't even seem that terrible for a rookie.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
^^^^^^^^^^
The Williams thing isn't entirely wishcasting. Shanahan is definitely a coach who knows how to handpick the right guys for his scheme. But I agree he won't overcome a healthy Hyde. Whether Hyde stays healthy is another matter.

RVProfootballer posted:

Actually, let me elevate my shitposting for a sec. There are a good number of semi-established vets with not super premium rookies behind them. Who do you think gets usurped, maybe order em?

Latavius Murray / Dalvin Cook
Jeremy Hill / Gio Bernard / Joe Mixon
Rob Kelley / Samaje Perine
Carlos Hyde / Joe Williams
Paul Perkins / Wayne Gallman
Ty Montgomery / Jamal Williams or Aaron Jones
Mark Ingram or AP / Alvin Kamara

Who else am I missing? Obviously Cook with Murray's foot surgery is a great bet, Mixon a bit less likely but has a good shot to unseat Hill. Everyone has anointed Perine over Kelley, I don't really know enough about them to know. Everyone thinks Hyde is gone, everyone is sure Perkins is going to dominate, people seem fairly confident Montgomery won't hold his job as the early down guy. Kamara is sort of complementary, but Ingram did catch a bunch of passes, so is Kamara going to take all that from him? Dunno.
1. Mixon > Hill/Bernard. Will be the starter come week 1.
2. Perine > Kelley. I don't believe Kelley holds off the talented rookie and WAS will have plenty of red zone opportunities.
3. Cook > Murray. Think Murray winds up the odd man out in MIN sooner rather than later. McKinnon will have a larger role than people expect, I think, but have to respect Cook's upside.

Guys Who Won't Start
4. Kamara. AP will be lead dog while healthy but Kamara will still be valuable as a passing down specialist at first. Ingram will have the dumb role that makes his fantasy owners regret taking him. If AP gets hurt, Kamara ought to have bought himself enough goodwill by that point to maybe force a timeshare with Ingram.
5. Williams. Probably a stash to start the year but Hyde has been snakebit by injuries lately and that could force Williams into the picture. And like Spoeank mentioned, Matt Breida is also a name to keep in mind.
6. (Honorary Mention) Oakland's guys: DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard. Comes with the stipulation that Lynch is THE MAN. Unless he's busted (he probably isn't). But if he is, those kids are talented and can probably be relied upon as sophomores. I favor Washington over Richard.

Nooooooooooope
7. Green Bay's guys might wind up with decent roles as rookies. I do fear Montgomery is in that special place where fantasy players like him a LOT more than Aaron Rodgers/Mike McCarthy actually do but I don't think he gets jumped by the other guys unless a true disaster happens. More likely the worst case scenario is more of an ugly looking committee where Montgomery has the most value but isn't as good as he could be and Williams/Jones still don't see any real volume.
8. Wayne Gallman SUUUUUUUUUUUCKS. Well he probably doesn't actually but his pass blocking was a knock on him coming into the league. Dynasty stash for now but my gut says Orleans Darkwa has a bigger 2017 role than Gallman.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
INCOMING TAKES

Joe Mixon is the top rookie back and finishes as an RB1.

Either AP or Marshawn Lynch returns to RB1 form. All haters are forced to deport themselves to Garbage Island.

Jordan Reed continues putting up elite points per game, thus earning his 4th/5th round ADP and making the six games he misses totally bearable!

Even though the Bucs drafted OJ Howard in the first, Cameron Brate (who is like #14-18 TE off the board currently) repeats as a TE1 and threatens for Top 5 status this year.

Dez Bryant stays healthy, performs like an elite WR1, and finishes in the Top 5.

Marvin Jones improves in his second year with the Lions, finishing as a solid WR2.

Curtis Samuel winds up being this year's Tyreek Hill, becoming a valuable cog in a Panthers passing game badly in need of playmakers who can consistently get open.

Not sure if these takes are :ssj: enough though... Might have to think of some more.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

RVProfootballer posted:

Cook obviously not, Ebron legit maybe (I still believe), Bennett lol no. Bennett was bad last year when Gronk only played 5 healthy games, going to GB is a big downgrade in situation.
I don't agree that GB is a big downgrade for Bennett. He'll be the best TE Rodgers has had since Jermichael Finley and even though Jared Cook's full season numbers are bad, if you watched the playoffs and saw how much Rodgers leaned on Cook (18/229/2 in 3 games with two games over 10+ targets), I think you would be excited to see Bennett in GB.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
Eh Richard Rodgers was a complete nonfactor when Jared Cook was in the lineup. Averaged 2 targets and 15 yards a game. He's a serviceable blocking TE2 but I don't expect him to split looks.


Rodgers and Mike McCarthy mentioned repeatedly last season how Cook's addition helped the offense execute more effectively.

"Packers.Com posted:

“I think it's been very beneficial for both parties,” said Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy of Cook’s signing. “He had a couple of challenges there with the two injuries, but you can see right away that he's a unique talent. He's been a great fit for, not only our offense, but for our football team.”
...
Cook fit the bill when it came to McCarthy’s desire to bring in a dynamic playmaker who could attack the middle of defenses.
“When you have an athletic tight end, whether it’s Jermichael or Jared, there’s opportunities you try to create for them,” McCarthy said. “So playing in displaced formations for the tight end position, I mean, we’ve always done that here.
...
“He’s been a big part of our success,” Rodgers said. “He does a good job using his body. I mean, he’s a big man. He’s a tall, strong guy. Does a good job separating from coverages and, I’ll say it again, the comments I heard before he got to us was about his hands. We haven’t had any problems with that.”

"Around The NFL posted:

"I think Jared's return has been important, just giving us two tight ends that can get down the field," Rodgers explained in late December, via ESPN.com. "Obviously, he's a matchup issue when you split him out to his own side, as we've seen in various games."
Enjoying the luxury of an athletic seam-stretcher has been especially beneficial to Rodgers on third downs. Since Cook returned from injury in Week 11, Rodgers has completed 10 passes for 175 yards and a 118.2 rating on 13 third-down throws to the speedy tight end.
"I've talked about it since I got here: The fastest way to the end zone is through the middle of the field," coach Mike McCarthy said. "So the bigger target you have going down the field, the better it is for your quarterback, particularly more athletic, bigger throwing radius and all of that. Jared Cook has all of those attributes. He's been an excellent attribute to our football team."
And Rodgers was way more efficient when the offense had Cook on the field.


So the QB/staff understand what an athletic TE does for their offense and upgraded at the position with Bennett. There will be plenty of TDs to go around for everyone so he doesn't require the strongest target share to perform as a solid TE1.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Amergin posted:

Here are some stats (tgts/rec/yds/tds) for the top two GB TEs (by # targets) since 2012 according to PFR:
2016:
Jared Cook 51/30/377/1
Richard Rodgers 47/30/271/2

2015:
Richard Rodgers 85/58/510/8
Andrew Quarless 5/4/31/0

2014:
Andrew Quarless 46/29/323/3
Richard Rodgers 30/20/225/2

2013:
Andrew Quarless 53/32/312/2
Jermichael Finley 34/25/300/3

2012:
Jermichael Finley 87/61/667/2
DJ Williams 15/7/57/0

So they might go all in on Bennett or they might split with R. Rodgers. Meaning Bennett could have a ceiling of ~ 60/800/8 (so top 5-10 TE) but he could also end up 30/400/3ish.
Again, Rodgers averaged 2 targets a game when Cook was active last year. Finley only played in six games in 2013 so no surprise the Quarless' numbers from 16 games look similar. And who gives a poo poo about what numbers Andrew Quarless and a rookie Richard Rodgers put up? So I'm not seeing any consistent splits here. They've just had lovely TEs since losing Finley.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Spoeank posted:

*whispers*

The Packers have never had a TE1 with Jordy Nelson playing a full season
Jermichael Finley in 2011. TE5 in standard, TE9 in PPR.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Sataere posted:

His ADP is higher than Zach Miller, who is still the starter. If anything, Miller is seriously undervalued. When healthy, he's been a mid level TE1. So four games
I'd be careful about considering Miller an undervalued player this year. Solid the last couple years when healthy but the situation seems a lot worse now. Two bad injuries to the same foot in the last three years (broke it last year, Lisfranc in 2014) and not only did the Bears draft a tight end, but they also gave $10 million guaranteed to Dion Sims in free agency. That's "you're gonna play" money for a tight end. Even at his super cheap ADP, I don't think Miller will be worth anything.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Sataere posted:

The injuries are an absolute concern, but the difference between Miller and Sims is Miller is actually a pretty good football player when healthy. He's just a great receiver for the position. I don't think anyone has ever called Sims that.

And his big contract is 3 years, $18 million with $6 guaranteed. All but $1 million guaranteed this year. It's just like the Glennon contract. If he sucks, he's cut at no real cost. If he pans out, you have a nice, value contract.

Shaheen is interesting. There's a lot to like about him. I would not be surprised to see him get looks in the second half of this season, but rookie tight ends struggle a ton. IfWhen Zach Miller gets injured, he could gain some value.

TL;DR version - I'll believe Miller isn't the starter when he's not on the roster.
Sims doesn't need to overtake Miller as the starter to ruin his value (with help from Shaheen). Even if you only consider his guaranteed money at signing, it was twice as much as the Bears gave to Miller. He'll be on the field plenty even if Miller is the nominal starter and with a second rounder in the mix too, this feels like a pretty muddled situation to me. I'm expecting his snaps and target share will take a potentially large hit.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

VietCampo posted:

Lot of debate in this thread over a TE who's missed more games than he's played, has never played a full season, or ever passed 500 yards receiving, or ever catch more than 5 TD's.

but basically
I get what you're saying but Miller was the overall TE6 when he broke his foot in Week 11 so he was definitely helping his owners when they were able to use him last year. He's worth discussing, even if I'm on the negative side. Gotta turn over every rock to find all the TE values since no one is going to predict them all correctly.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
I'm biased against Witten because I feel like he always ends up as TE11 because he'll score the 11th most points every week. Not really a week winner but he is an iron man, which is pretty rare for tight ends.

I am totally on board with guys like Doyle, Brate, and Ebron after the 10th though. I poo poo-talked Ebron last year but this is probably his year. He has made solid incremental progress every year. I still worry about his red zone target share but he'll see plenty of regular targets to be a TE1.

Guys, I think TE might actually be deep this year... :psyboom:

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

Teemu Pokemon posted:

The thing is though, that the only TE, aside from a full season of Gronk, that is a week winner it's Reed and you're missing like 6 of those weeks minimum so it doesn't make sense (unless you're doing best ball but that totally changes everything)

Like, Kelce is the defacto TE1 if Gronk is hobbled and I'd say there are a good handful of guys around his ADP like Rodgers/Robinson/Allen/Brady/DT who are infinitely more likely to win you any given week
I'm not meaning like dominant blow-up performances. I'm just thinking relative to my opponents in a 12 team league. If I'm starting a TE that gets me the 11th most points that week, I'm at a disadvantage against someone who started the TE6 or TE9 that week. I just don't think Witten is enough of an asset in my lineup.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
I love how feisty his uncle is in that clip. Sees his nephew get hit and goes at a dude twice his size with 110% effort... until he gets knocked on his rear end. A+ uncle.

In other news, so much for Lamar Miller's backup:

Rotoworld posted:

Texans third-round RB D'Onta Foreman was arrested for marijuana possession and unlawful carrying of a weapon in Austin early Sunday morning.
A call was placed to University of Texas Police at 12:24 AM and Foreman was booked into Travis County Jail at 3 AM. Six other male suspects were cited and released on charges of marijuana possession, while Foreman is still being held on $4,500 bail. Foreman won last year's Doak Walker Award, given annually to college football's top running back. Particularly after Foreman reported to the team out of shape, his chances of making a 2017 impact are fast diminishing.
Miller will get all the touches now and probably burn out by week 9.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
https://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/887108247836119040

Just another tidbit proving AJ Green is a total badass. I cannot stop laughing at Tavon Austin being #5 on this list though. Like that just seems cruel to do that to him. loving hell, Rams. How do you take a gadget player you can line up almost anywhere on the field and wind up putting him in so many unwinnable situations?

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
Posting anti-Dez propaganda should be probatable imo

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Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!
Dion Lewis is not worth $7. Carr and Crabtree are the best bargains but I don't like any of the third keeper options. I feel like I could better spend the budget better in a draft.

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