2017 Slow Draft I: Already three days behind the NFL.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > 2017 Slow Draft I: Already three days behind the NFL.

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

I'm in.

# ¿ May 4, 2017 03:27

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 14:16

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

I am in let's start

# ¿ May 5, 2017 18:55

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

What is happening?

# ¿ May 7, 2017 04:22

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

I think #7 might be the worst possible draft spot this year. 1-6 are pretty obviously some combo of the players you guys already took. Julio/ODB/AB are in a different tier than AJ Green/Evans/Dez. Similarly, David Johnson/Leveon/Zeke are in a different tier than Gordon/McCoy/Howard/Ajayi etc. The #7 spot has terrible value.

Anyway, I took Melvin Gordon. 3rd season, still improving, facing no competition for carries, and playing with what should be an improved O-line and offense in general.

# ¿ May 8, 2017 18:51

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

2.06 DeAndre Hopkins - They say Deshaun Watson is a one-read QB, hopefully that one read is to his big rear end receiver that goes and gets it as good as anybody.

3.07 Christian McCaffrey - Even if he gets vultured by Stewart on the regular, with the 0.5 PPR and a couple punt return TD he should be worth a pick in this round. I think he's a high-floor rookie given the players around him.

# ¿ May 10, 2017 06:03

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

4.06 Ty Montgomery

Although we have a very small sample size, he's the starting running back on a very good team with a bunch of nobodies behind him. Almost went CJ Anderson or Beast Mode.

# ¿ May 11, 2017 06:08

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

Here is my detailed analysis of my Tyreek Hill pick:

Tyreek Hill + best ball = WIN

# ¿ May 12, 2017 23:53

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

7.07 Big Ben

In a normal league, I'd take Mariota or Cousins before him. In a best ball, I can hopefully survive his crappy road game performances by pairing him with another decent QB. There's also some risk that he might fall off the cliff like Eli has.

# ¿ May 15, 2017 17:08

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

8. something OJ Howard

I am also not thrilled about having a rookie as my TE1, but he's apparently the best TE prospect in 10 years so I'll just go with it. I will add a veteran later.

# ¿ May 16, 2017 21:14

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

9.07 Blount

Well I drafted him like 80 spots above his ADP, but I think today's news validates that. He should have most/all the early down and goal line work in PHI with little to no competition. He probably won't be what he was with the Pats, but he should still be an RB2.

# ¿ May 17, 2017 23:33

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

10.06 Andy Dalton

1.I need a decent 2nd QB for Ben's road games/in case he dies.
2 I'm still not sure what Wentz is.
3.Cin offense is loaded with talent
4. The QB2s after Wentz are pretty scary.

# ¿ May 19, 2017 04:42

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

11.07 Eric Ebron

His yardage totals go up every year. If he could only score some TDs he'd be a top 10 TE.

# ¿ May 19, 2017 23:16

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

13th round Marlon Mack

Frank Gore is 34 after all, and Robert Turben is just a dude. I'll be targeting Mack hard in the late round of real drafts.

# ¿ May 24, 2017 00:11

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

Leperflesh posted:

I've been waffling about Jeremy Maclin for a while so I'm glad someone finally took him before my next pick so we can talk about him.

Is he gonna just be overshadowed by Kelce and Hill now, or bounce back? Will Mahomes target him more or less than Smith? How does Chris Conley fit into the mix?

No reason to think Mahomes sees the field unless Alex is injured or his play falls off a cliff.

I am very sad that someone picked Jonathan Williams. First time I've felt sniped this whole time.

# ¿ May 24, 2017 21:24

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

I'm going camping tomorrow and I doubt my phone will work there. You can just autodraft best player available for me if I take too long.

Or we could pause until Memorial Day is over.

# ¿ May 26, 2017 17:57

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

Leperflesh posted:

We've badly stalled now. I think the long weekend is officially over, can Mitchell TrubiBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO please make a draft pick?

I'm sorry, I had no idea it was my turn. Must've mistakenly deleted the email.

Denver defense! Still quite talented, although the increase in talent of the other 3 teams in their division is the cause of a little concern.

# ¿ May 31, 2017 21:10

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

coronaball you're up again.

I was simply asleep that time.

The rate we're going it might be the 4th of July by the time we're done.

# ¿ Jun 7, 2017 04:27

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

17.07 Jared Cook :siren:

This format makes him palatable. There will be weeks when he is my TE1. There will not be more than 4 of these weeks. They will be impossible to predict. And, most certainly, none of them will come back to back.

# ¿ Jun 8, 2017 00:28

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

19th round: Jacquizz Rodgers

He might be the starter for weeks 1-3. He could be the starter for longer if Doug Martin is released. He might be a big zero. Good enough for the 19th round!

# ¿ Jun 14, 2017 00:36

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

Varg posted:

wonder how that 3 TE / 1 defense strategy is gonna work out for Risquebarber and coronaball

Bah, I should have taken a second defense over Deshone Kaiser. Slow draft fatigue.

# ¿ Jun 17, 2017 07:58

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

Leperflesh posted:

Mitchell Trbibooooo.../Coronaball

QBs: B-
Big Ben is a solid, reliable QB1 pick, and Andy Dalton is a great pick for #2. Where my eyebrows are raising painfully is the DeShone Kizer selection. He's officially behind Cody Kessler, and ahead of Brock Lobstweiler, but it's June. Who the gently caress knows? As a safe backup he's obviously totally inappropriate, so I have to view him instead as an upside gamble. But... really, what's the big upside? Suppose he wins the starting job by week 1. Now what? It's still the cleveland browns! This team needs a lot of work, it's not just a winning team waiting for the right rookie quarterback to drive it to the playoffs. With a guaranteed-starting backup behind Roethlisberger and Dalton, I'd give it an A. With a low-upside gamble, it's a B-.

RBs: C+
I'll say right off the bat, a lot of folks think Melvin Gordon is undervalued, and I agree. He's a star RB and I expect more big scores out of him again this year. So he's a great anchor to an RB crew. LeGarrette Blount is another solid choice; we haven't seen exactly how he'll be used in Philly, but he'll surely get used. And finally, Ty Montgomery is a big deal guy, if he's rated as both a WR and RB again this year. Otherwise, he's maybe the lead back in probably a committee in Green Bay, which still holds value, but not as much. Unfortunately, this is the point that this seven-man RB crew falls off a goddamn cliff. Rex Burkhead and Jaquizz Rodgers are at best RB3s in a committee, and at worst, glued to the bench for significant portions of the season. And Marlon Mack and Christian McCaffrey are rookies, albeit very different ones. McCaffrey at least has a shot at a lead role, although the Panthers are very unlikely to turn him into a bellcow his rookie year; the best you can say for Mack is that he's probably going to make the team. Put it all together and what we have here is two really solid guys, one decent dude, and too many gambles, question marks, and fourth stringers. Gordon and Burkhead share a bye week, as do Rodgers/McCaffrey/Mack, but since Mack and Rodgers may be bench warmers, I can discount the week 11 issue.

WRs: B+
I don't hate these guys. Hill, Crowder, and Hopkins are all excellent receivers who are only held back by their situations - specifically, their quarterbacks. I think on balance, Crowder is the most reliable among them, and then Hill, while Nuk may or may not have a passer who can get the ball into his vicinity. I'm OK with the questions there, because there's three other good to middling choices on this roster; Taylor Gabriel has a role, albeit not a leading one, in Atlanta. Similarly, Marvin Jones I think is secure in the #2 role in Detroit. Paul Richardson is the outsider - I think he makes the team, but he's not guaranteed a significant role. Taken together I think this is a solid WR set, with no wasted picks. Maybe add Ty Montgomery to the list. My first real criticism then is that I don't see any of them as superstars - there's no Antonio Brown/Julio Jones/Mark Evans kind of guy who is likely to throw up several huge games a year. And secondly, there's two shared bye weeks - week 5 and 7 - that add a little risk.

TEs: C+
Eric Ebron is not a great leading TE. He's OK, but I don't think his role is such that he turns in big games much during the season. The backups here are the big problem, though. Jared Cook is possibly fine, since he tends to have two big games each year, but the rest of the time he is a garbage man and I think the Raiders might not put up with that. And OJ Howard is a bigger gamble: he's a first round TE pick, and expected to both block and catch, but cameron brate could definitely keep his starting role and in any case as previously discussed, rookie TEs rarely do much in fantasy. Overall my problem here is spending three picks at TE but not winding up with reliable points at the position.

D/STs: D+
The broncos are great. But where's the second D/ST? This is a guaranteed goosegg week 5, and no D/ST consistently performs, period. Not even the vaunted Broncos. Given how good Denver is, a second pick of even a middling D/ST would have pushed this from a D to a B+ or A- kind of grade, but without it, it's just a real big problem.

OVERALL GRADE: B-
Roethlisburger, Melvin Gordon, and three good WRs aren't enough to put a fantasy team into contention. They're good, and there's some quality backups particularly at WR, but there are too many poor picks on this team for it to really shine. DeShone Kizer and Marlon Mack are just errors, OJ Howard and Paul Richardson are gambles unlikely to pay off, there are a few too many bye week duplicates, and D/ST is a serious problem. This team is pretty much a textbook "will finish in the middle of the pack" roster, with very little chance at a top three finish, albeit no disastrous choices that should plunge it to the bottom either.

I agree with some of this (the Kizer pick should have been a 2nd defense and my TE are average at best) but I think you undersold my RB and oversold my WR. I think my WR as a group are weaker for a best ball, whereas my RB are stronger. Gordon and Blount are always candidates for multi-TD blowup games. Montgomery is not part of a committee, he's basically an unquestioned starter as things stand today. Burkhead might be a starting RB for the best team in the NFL. (or he might a zero, admittedly) I think you even undersold Marlon Mack; he's likely going to be the direct backup for a 34 year old RB.

On the other hand, I hate my WR. There are no confirmed superstars, as you said. Hopkins would be one with even average QB play, but we can't assume that from a rookie QB. Crowder would be better in a regular league., he's more of a PPR accumulator guy. Hill obviously has big potential, but we have a small sample size and Andy Reid silliness to deal with. The rest are just dudes.

edit: but thank you for looking at it. That's the entire point of this exercise, is to flesh out how guys should be valued

# ¿ Jun 21, 2017 06:14

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 14:16

coronaball: Feb 6, 2005; You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

So basically I won this on Hopkins insane catch. That's pretty cool!

# ¿ Dec 27, 2017 04:58

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > 2017 Slow Draft I: Already three days behind the NFL.