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I work part-time as a cashier in a high street betting shop in the UK. I mostly just scan slips and argue with people over 17p underpayments, but I've picked a basic understanding of how the system works. 1). The bookies do indeed set the odds, based on the horse's past performance (form), quality of the trainer/stables, jockey, race type (e.g. flat, hurdles), ground condition and, probably most significantly, how people have backed it in the past. 2). Yes, prices fluctuate based on how people are backing. A clear favourite will get its odds shortened to dissuade people from backing it. Low-staking punters tend to avoid short odds because there's not much to gain from it. For example, a 10/11 favourite will only pay out £1.90 on a £1 stake, so since they're not going to miss £1, they'll put it on something that's less likely to win but will net them a relatively decent return. Higher-staking punters, on the other hand, will stake a significant amount of money on short odds: a £100 bet on a 10/11 horse will net you about £191, which isn't to be sniffed at, especially if you're betting like that and winning all day. If a lot of people put a lot of money on a horse with short odds, they bookies will keep shortening them until it stops being attractive. The reverse is also true of horses that aren't being backed. If there's a decent horse set at 4/1 and nobody's interested, they might push the prices out to 6/1 to tempt people in. There is a point at which punters will start ignoring long odds though, as there's a fine line between an outsider being worth a punt and being so much of a donkey that they'll give you 50/1 on it. 3). My shop's a little off the beaten track, so we only really get a large number of "real" people coming in for major races like the Grand National. They do usually bet entirely on gut feelings, names, colours and that sort of thing. Regular punters bet on a variety of factors. Some go entirely off the odds, some go off past form, some favour certain trainers and jockeys, but the majority will go off a combination of factors. I would say that the more successful punters tend to study form extensively, but there are so many factors at play that I'd say it's impossible to develop a reliable system. Backing whimsically on names or colours or what have you is probably no less valid than being scientific about it, given how large the element of chance is.
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May 15, 2017 14:13
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| # ¿ May 3, 2024 03:07 |
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