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dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
What's going on now?
Gonna be talkin' some dirt bike racing ITT. The best dirt bike riders in the world break their football-stadium shackles to remind themselves that their motorcycles have more than 4 gears.

Motocross is the core of the dirtbike world, though it's treated like the red-headed stepchild compared to it's glitsy and glamoury Supercross brother. Personally, I like motorcross better because there is more racing. It's a grueling 12 race series battling the tracks, oppressive heat and humidity, and 40 of the baddest dudes on dirtbikes.

What's the difference between this and supercross
Supercross is primarily at night in football stadiums, motocross is during the day on outdoor racetracks. Motocross has two 30 minute (plus two lap) main event races on the day, the overall winner being the one who scores the most points. Like supercross and motocross, there are two classes, 250cc and 450cc classes.

How to watch:
Races are televised on MAV TV (usually the first motos) and NBC Sports (usually the second motos). New for this year, cord cutters can I get an amen, NBC sports has a streaming only option with live races, practice, and on-demand for the last two season. Check it out here

450 Class
Ryan Dungey - SIKE! Dude just up and retired having collected ~12 professional dirtbike racing championships. He was like 2nd best on the all time wins list for professional motocross.
Eli Tomac - Barring major injuries, it's very likely Tomac could run away with the championship. In my humble opinion, he is the only "god tier" rider left right now. His speed is phenominal, and in the 2015 season he handily won the first 5 motos of the year before crashing huge and screwing up his shoulder. If he's clicking with his bike, watch out.
Ken Roczen - Shout out to last year's dominant champ. Had a terrible wreck in supercross this year and might not even be back on the bike until next year, he's had something like 12 surgeries to his arm/wrist. Just wanted to mention him.
Marvin Musquin - KTM's new #1 guy is a really good motocross rider. He has the speed to absolutely win any day, but his off days are really off (at least in supercross). It really depends how many off days he has.
Jason Anderson - Marvin and Ryan's training partner has a reputation for aggresive riding and impressive speed. He had a pretty crappy supercross season, but he has the best trainer in the business.
Blake Baggett - The industry guys are all picking Baggett to be the "sneaky good pick". He's not considered an elite level guy in supercross (though he's getting real close), but his motocross talents haven't been in question.
Cooper Webb - Coming off a tepid rookie supercross season, I think Cooper might be able to win a moto or two. He's got the chops and won a championship in the 250 class last year.
Justin Barcia - I suppose I should probably at least mention Barcia here. He's got good outdoor speed, but he's never been very impressive on a 450. Rumors are he might be trying to get a MXGP ride for next year.

450 Bold and italicized predictions
1. Tomac
2. Musquin
3. Webb
4. Baggett
5. Anderson

250 Class
The 250 class is deep in talent and full of young guys doing young guy crazy poo poo. It should be a good season.
Zach Osbourne - Dude went from never winning a supercross race to winning 3 or 4 this supercross season. Arguably had one of the most amazing rides in the history of the sport to win the supercross 250 east championship in the second to last turn on the last lap. He has the "best" trainer and training partners, and I think he's got all the momentum going in.
Jeremy Martin - Two-time 250 class champion outdoors, but he moved to a different bike this year. He dropped out of supercross after an abysmal season and is reported to be nursing a herneated disc in his back. If he can stay healthy and get comfortable on the bike, he should bring it all home. Fair warning, being a J-mart fan can be hard at times.
The rest - There is a big group of other guys at the top, but I consider the first two to be the biggest championship contenders. Joey Savatgy, Austin Forker, Jordan Smith, Shane McElrath, Alex Martin, Adam Cianciarulo, Aaron Plessinger. Any of these guys could win motos.

250 Bold and italicized predictions
1. J Mart
2. Osbourne
3. Forkner
4. A Mart
5. Savatgy

*I am probably the least qualified person posting in this thread to talk about motocross. I don't have a dirtbike, and only vaguely knew what "outdoors" was until a few years ago

dreesemonkey fucked around with this message at 14:04 on May 17, 2017

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dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug

shacked up with Brenda posted:

I'm in agreement that the 450 class might be a run-away this year for Eli. We might see Webb finally rise up?

The 250 class is going to be fantastic though.

Plessinger
Martin
Osborne
Hill
Savatgy
Smith

Jeez, even AC.

Got my NBC gold pass ordered and ready to go. Hopefully the streams aren't laggy and crap.

e: Just read Davalos is racing in the 450 class, Rockstar Husky with 3 450 guys.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug

shacked up with Brenda posted:

Yeah man. Davalos has been in the 250 class forever. I wondered how it was possible he hadn't made it to 450s yet.

As far as I know, this is for motocross-only, but maybe I need to read between the lines.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug

shacked up with Brenda posted:

Jimmy DDDDDDDDD is going to fill-in at Geico Honda for a few rounds. WOo!

Yea I saw that. Is he going to make Southwick?

I forgot to mention Ferrandis in the 250 class. He had a really surprisingly good supercross season, and I'm making the assumption that he's more at home on MX tracks, being from France, so I could see him being the top Star racer. Might not be super likely, but I could see it happening theoretically.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Pretty good weekend of racing, the pro circuit dueling in the second 250 moto was pretty entertaining. Quite a bit of drama in the 250 class too, with J Mart's DNF in the first moto. Dunno if you listened to pulp but apparently in the first moto forkner was having bike electrical issues, he cut off a large portion of the track to go into the pits, got the bike going again, and then entered the track directly from the pits. But no penalties handed down. He came back and got 9th.

450 race was pretty decent, though no real drama that I can remember. Pretty happy with the NBC gold app purchase, the quality was pretty darn good (though I wasn't watching live). A++++ would buy again.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Yea I have no complaints. Quality is good, and if you care at all, you can watch the previous 2 seasons. I guess it's the only way to watch it online now (legally), I'm happy to not have to hunt down torrents/avoid social media. I think the motos go up about an hour after they're over +/-, I'm pleased with that.

Pretty crazy motos, not a great weekend for Kawi, but at least entertaining. Track looked really hard to pass on. Word is Webb pulled off in the 2nd moto, wasn't a mechanical or anything. Friggin' Yamaha, man.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug

Deeters posted:

After last week, I was really hoping that Tomac wasn't going to just run away with this series, and it doesn't look like he will now.

I wouldn't be so sure. If he can get his starts figured out and be in the top 5 instead of the top 15, he'll probably run away with it. I just don't think Marv has the blistering pace.

Of course I could be completely wrong.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Yea that was nuts, he was just on another level. I go back and forth on Baggett, I watched some of the RacerX videos of his compound and he seems really nice and down to earth, then he wins and on the podium he's not really humble at all, he was like that in his Kawi 250 days too. That's just not something I personally care for. Anytime someone picks up a win I feel it has the chance to really start the momentum, Baggett (or Bogle, for instance - shoutout to him) could just go on a run of really solid finishes just because of the confidence boost.

What a series of motos, both classes both motos were super exciting. Both classes seem pretty wide open at this point. According to twitter, people at Kawi were saying Tomac was fighting arm pump both motos. Sucks for him, but if he's going to be "the guy", he's going to need to start getting back to winning motos.

I'm not complaining, it's refreshing to not have anyone running away with either class. Thinking back to last year though, with everyone's inconsistencies, I really miss Roczen out there. He's probably going nuts right now.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
It never gets old.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Hahaha, wtf is up with that picture.

Kinda bummed there is no race this weekend, at least there is F1 I guess.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Another good race weekend, the Bagget v. Tomac looks like it's going to be heating up. I think Bagget has a legit shot at winning this thing, as much as I don't really want him to. I have a feeling Roczen would be handling these dudes, though.

250 class was again awesome. Cool to see the Martin brothers and Osbourne ripping.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Been slackin' in my posting, sorry lads. I've been keeping up with the series, at least.

geddy posted:

How are the stakes looking in the moto series? Eli Tomac going to be the new Dungey? He's shown nothing but consistency and speed for the past 3 years or so. Guy has confidence and a personality the media can make a buck off of. AKA replacement Dungey?

Who's making the rounds on the factory KTMs these days? Man so much changes fast in this sport.

Tomac is the new "guy" right now in MX, though Baggett has shown immense bursts of speed (now has a thumb injury, though). I think Tomac is still the smart bet for the championship, but Baggett could still make it happen. In SX, I think Tomac's gotta be the favorite going into the season next year.

I don't know that there will ever be a replacement Dungey, at least not from the current 450 crop. I could almost see Osbourne being like that how's he's handling the 250 class this year, if he's not winning outright he's charging through the field and taking podiums. Unfortunately for him, he's 29 and if/when he jumps to the 450 I don't know how many good years left he'll have.

Factory KTM is interesting at this point. For MX they have Marv and Canard (who's only run 2 races). That's the big doins next year, who will be Marv's #2 at factory KTM. Rumors are maybe Chad Reed or Barcia or Tickle. IMO KTM is going to be really missing Dungey, Marv is a top level guy but he's no Dungey. He's got the speed at times, but I don't think he has the consistency. Bad weeks are really bad. Dungey didn't have bad weeks. Tomac and Roczen are probably the best dudes left for SX, if Anderson could figure his starts out I think I'd put him ahead of Marv too (over the whole season).

All that said, as well as Tomac and Baggett have been riding, I think if "2016 Roczen" was racing he'd be running away with another one. He was so smooth on his bike (the Suzuki). It's a drat shame he's not out there racing right now. To put it into perspective, the dude straight up beat Dungey outdoors on the big bikes twice. That's an accomplishment for sure. The only two dudes who beat Dungey outdoors since he was in the 450 class were Roczen (twice) and Villo (twice). That's really, really, really impressive for both Dungey and Roczen.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Haven't been around on the forums much fellas, a bit of my own silly season. Still making time to watch MX, though. A few thoughts:

1. The Tomac curse! Is he going to sneak it out? Jeez. Is he getting tired? Mentally beaten?
2. Zach-o is straight up cruising. Very solid. He may just carry the entire MXoN team on his shoulders.
3. Roczen would be destroying all if he were healthy and riding.

Silly season talk:
1. Rumors are that Tickle is going to KTM to be Marv's teammate, Decoster said no 3rd rider for SX at least. This sounds "done".
2. I've heard a vague rumor that Plessinger might go to factory Yamaha to be Webb's 450 teammate. I also heard maybe Barcia heads back to Yamaha. Or Millsaps. Or Reed.
3. Peick rumored likely staying on JGR (Which is now the sole factory Suzuki team, if you haven't been following). Not sure who's going to join him. I don't think Bogle has a ride, he'd probably be the next guy in line. Maybe Reed if he wouldn't shoot his mouth off about the bike so much.
4. All these 250 riders claiming they're going 450 - J-mart / Justin Hill / what's Marty going to do? I don't see many of these happening. Let alone the other pretty good dudes.
5. Cianciarulo was apparently being wooed by all the 250 teams, probably going to stay at pro circuit though.
6. To sum up I think these dudes aren't yet under contact: Barcia, Bogle, Peick, Grant, Reed, Millsaps, Tickle, Brayton, Mookie, James (lawl), Davalos (450?)

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Herlings is racing at Ironman this weekend. It will be interesting to see how he stacks up.

I don't expect Tomac to be setting the world on fire, he just needs to coast and finish both motos around 10th place. Herlings could potentially go 2-1 and it wouldn't surprise me because after the first moto if Eli does really well, there is nothing Musquin or Bagget could do.

I really hope it doesn't happen, but I could absolutely see huge drama here like Tomac having a really bad moto and not scoring many points or something, it just seems like in really big races he finds a way to gently caress up. Man that would be heartbreaking. But I hope he pulls one out.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Good for Tomac. Anyone who seems like a nice, genuinely humble person is cool with me. I'm glad he won. Maybe it was the final piece he needed to potentially get over any mental poo poo he needs to get over.

I have to say I had a bit of an existential crisis about Herlings being so ungodly fast and dominant, I'm going to feign ignorance and remind myself that the US riders are at the end of a 9 month sprint.

I think SX and MX needs less races for fresher dudes. Maybe 13 rounds of SX and 10 of MX or something.

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug

shacked up with Brenda posted:

How can you watch the MXGP?

I don't know, I wonder if there is a stream somewhere online. They race on Sunday's, right?

dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Hottest takes: (In order of spice)

1. Gajser wins the overall, completing the MXGP-on-USA dunk for the year
2. With no team to keep Barcia in check, he straight up kills a dude for 17th place. Or maybe gets killed by Bowers for said 17th place.
3. Bogle wins a moto, and then rides anonymously the rest of the year.

But really, I'm giving the slight nod to Musquin over Tomac. Pretty much those are the only interesting dudes going.

Do we know what channel it will be on Saturday? I'll try to watch live if I can.

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dreesemonkey
May 14, 2008
Pillbug
Just watched the open class this AM on daily motion. Good for Marv, but man what a snoozer of a race. I don't know that I saw any passes other than 3 interesting minutes of Marv and Tomac going at at.

Supercross really does need whoops and big rhythm sections to help divide the field.

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