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gucci bane
Oct 27, 2008



regulation capture will allow those with capital to continually crash the stock market then prop it up with government money, which because the government can't afford more debt will be printed. this is called quantitative easing, and it allows the us to constantly crash due to bad domestic policies then export the crashes to other economies which ends up with the third world suffering. eventually this will continue until the Chinese have created a stable enough alternative economic system via the new development bank, ect and other nations move to renminbi (or the Euro lol) as a reserve currency

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rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
China isn't going to magic up another stable economic system, nor would a move towards the renminbi as the reserve currency be of benefit to anyone but China.

China does not give a poo poo about anyone else but China, and by all accounts they've committed to a merger between modern capitalism and one-party rule.

gucci bane
Oct 27, 2008



rudatron posted:

China isn't going to magic up another stable economic system, nor would a move towards the renminbi as the reserve currency be of benefit to anyone but China.

China does not give a poo poo about anyone else but China, and by all accounts they've committed to a merger between modern capitalism and one-party rule.

yeah but also this is c-spam and ill reserve the right to write whatever economic fan fictions i want

In seriousness, China has made many efforts to create a new order and nobody can reliably say that these won't pan out/become viable as they get more powerful in the 50+ year range.

gucci bane has issued a correction as of 10:21 on May 23, 2017

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

All China has to do long term to supplant the United States is be more responsible than us.

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless
The housing bubble won't "pop", at least not in the same way it did in 2008, since it's quite a bit harder to get mortgage now. Prices could correct though

LinYutang
Oct 12, 2016

NEOLIBERAL SHITPOSTER

:siren:
VOTE BLUE NO MATTER WHO!!!
:siren:

llllllllll posted:

Can you please make more than a drive-by shitpost (use a period, Jebus Christ Dave) or at least show us your credentials as an Economist reporter?

for years now we've had story after story about The Tech Bubble Is Going To Collapse Any Day Now, Seriously

that's because jokes like Juicero capture the most news and attention and not quiet companies like Atlassian

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless

LinYutang posted:

for years now we've had story after story about The Tech Bubble Is Going To Collapse Any Day Now, Seriously

that's because jokes like Juicero capture the most news and attention and not quiet companies like Atlassian

Does "years" include the last time the tech bubble imploded?

Nebakenezzer
Sep 13, 2005

The Mote in God's Eye

llllllllll posted:

Do you have a link to the Taibbi piece?

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-20100405

mormonpartyboat
Jan 14, 2015

by Reene
please do not make balloon animals out of condoms

a helpful bear
Aug 18, 2004

Slippery Tilde
we're in a posting bubble atm better get ur posts in now :justpost:

the bitcoin of weed
Nov 1, 2014

LinYutang posted:

for years now we've had story after story about The Tech Bubble Is Going To Collapse Any Day Now, Seriously

that's because jokes like Juicero capture the most news and attention and not quiet companies like Atlassian

some of the highest valued tech IPs are companies that literally don't make money and only continue to exist on investor confidence that they will eventually make money. actual companies that make actual products aren't part of the bubble, VC bullshit apps are

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPgkDk1U42k

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

shovelbum posted:

Why are we assuming tech is a bubble again

lots of absurd valuations. companies and investors paying far more than things are actually worth, particularly in the case of companies which have never made a profit and don't have any plan to ever make a profit. the fact that pretty much every big tech IPO in the last few years started off significantly overvalued

investors don't have any idea how to tell the next Amazon.com from the next Pets.com, and they don't have anywhere better to put their enormous piles of money anyway, so they leave regular due diligence by the wayside and just randomly shovel money around

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

All China has to do long term to supplant the United States is be more responsible than us.

If they could set their stock exchange up so it wasn't a pyramid scheme they could easily capture some of that excess cash sloshing around US markets

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
my bet is the second twitter explodes from lack of money, the tech bubble pops on the spot

anime was right
Jun 27, 2008

death is certain
keep yr cool
exploding in this context also means "sold for a tiny fraction of how much money investors put into it"

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

Twitter should be socialized.

Coolguye
Jul 6, 2011

Required by his programming!
*~tiiiiiiiny bubblessssssssss
iiiiin the marketttttttt
maaaaake me happyyyyyyyy~*

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

there isn't going to be a tech crash or stock market crash any time soon

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

Twitter should be socialized.
seconded

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Commerz posted:

regulation capture will allow those with capital to continually crash the stock market then prop it up with government money, which because the government can't afford more debt will be printed. this is called quantitative easing, and it allows the us to constantly crash due to bad domestic policies then export the crashes to other economies which ends up with the third world suffering. eventually this will continue until the Chinese have created a stable enough alternative economic system via the new development bank, ect and other nations move to renminbi (or the Euro lol) as a reserve currency

lol if you think the Chinese are creating a stable enough economic system

chinese capitalism has all the negatives of US capitalism tuned up to 11

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Commerz posted:


In seriousness, China has made many efforts to create a new order and nobody can reliably say that these won't pan out/become viable as they get more powerful in the 50+ year range.
lol

The Chinese (fake) stocket market crashes and you know what the government does?

Order Chinese retirement fund managers to buy more stocks to prop the value up and then throw their foreign exchange at it and maybe freeze trading now and then

this sounds like a great beginning to a new alternative stable system

and god help us if the alternative to US led global capitalism are Chinese ghost cities

Typo has issued a correction as of 23:38 on May 25, 2017

Otherkinsey Scale
Jul 17, 2012

Just a little bit of sunshine!

get that OUT of my face posted:

there isn't going to be a tech crash or stock market crash any time soon

well, i'm convinced

crazy cloud
Nov 7, 2012

by Cyrano4747
Lipstick Apathy

Dreddout posted:

The next stage is tweets become the new monetary standard and Dril rules over all

great news FOR TWITCOIN

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

Everyone should invest in Bitcoin, the currency of the future. Its completely anonymous*, has no fees**, is fast***, secure**** and hasn't had any bubbles*****.

*actually tracked by every computer in the Bitcoin network
**has fees
***can only handle a few hundred transactions a minute
****no major bitcoin exchange has ever been a scam or robbed, starting now
*****also starting now

mormonpartyboat
Jan 14, 2015

by Reene
i sat on a bubble wand and now im farting economic uncertainty

gucci bane
Oct 27, 2008



Typo posted:

lol

The Chinese (fake) stocket market crashes and you know what the government does?

Order Chinese retirement fund managers to buy more stocks to prop the value up and then throw their foreign exchange at it and maybe freeze trading now and then

this sounds like a great beginning to a new alternative stable system

and god help us if the alternative to US led global capitalism are Chinese ghost cities

The Chinese system is plagued by huge SOEs, misguided intervention, crashes due to one sided reporting on OBOR, ect but it is way more egalitarian than the US market. Both systems are prone to collapse. Americans have nothing to be arrogant about.


edit: please respond with post-autistic economics only, i dont wanna hear some dumb rant about regulation causing distortion on muh free market

gucci bane has issued a correction as of 13:53 on May 26, 2017

Coolguye
Jul 6, 2011

Required by his programming!

Commerz posted:

The Chinese system is plagued by huge SOEs, misguided intervention, crashes due to one sided reporting on OBOR, ect but it is way more egalitarian than the US market. Both systems are prone to collapse. Americans have nothing to be arrogant about.


edit: please respond with post-autistic economics only, i dont wanna hear some dumb rant about regulation causing distortion on muh free market

the chinese system is v egalitarian as long as you have connections into the omnipresent government and are willing and able to pay constant bribes to connections of your connections which means you need connections and idle money to succeed and WHOOPS i guess that's the exact same as the american system only most of the chinese growth markers are fake as gently caress

also the american bribes are a lot smaller

Vermain
Sep 5, 2006



what exactly does "egalitarian" mean in this particular context

gucci bane
Oct 27, 2008



Coolguye posted:

the chinese system is v egalitarian as long as you have connections into the omnipresent government and are willing and able to pay constant bribes to connections of your connections which means you need connections and idle money to succeed and WHOOPS i guess that's the exact same as the american system only most of the chinese growth markers are fake as gently caress

also the american bribes are a lot smaller

According to a CBC report in 2015, the Shanghai stock market is the most active stock market in the world, 85% of trades in the market are retail-based and 2/3rds of investors didn’t graduate from high school. Credit Suisse estimates that 80% of urban Chinese households are invested in the stock market

meanwhile

Whilst US households own (directly and indirectly) close to 80% of their stock market (this is because pensions, unlike the chinese stock market), the distribution of stock ownership is highly concentrated toward the top 10% of income earners.

https://www.amphilsoc.org/sites/default/files/proceedings/Wolff.pdf

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Commerz posted:

ect but it is way more egalitarian than the US market.

No it's not lol the difference between China and the US is that there's less transparency and the state controls the media way more so bad news leaks out less often and poor people get hosed there's no CNN reporting on it

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Commerz posted:

According to a CBC report in 2015, the Shanghai stock market is the most active stock market in the world, 85% of trades in the market are retail-based and 2/3rds of investors didn’t graduate from high school.

that just mean the people who are gonna lose out are 2/3s the poorly educated

quote:

Whilst US households own (directly and indirectly) close to 80% of their stock market (this is because pensions, unlike the chinese stock market), the distribution of stock ownership is highly concentrated toward the top 10% of income earners.
this is a lovely comparison because the market cap for the SSE is way smaller than the US stock market as % of their respective economies, capital allocation in China isn't done through the stock market: it's done through some combination of having the right Guanxi with managers in state ran banks which gives out loans like candy and gets bailed out by the government under the table because non-performing loans is way way higher than western banks.

The other way is outright shadow banking sponsored by legit banks/local governments where they literally text people on phones telling them to put their money into guaranteed!!!! high return.....something just gives your $$$. God (or Marx) knows where the money actually go.

quote:

the distribution of stock ownership is highly concentrated toward the top 10% of income earners.
"Ownership" is also far less valuable in China than the US because property rights are much more ambiguous and a lot of the time it's unclear if a company is owned by the state or private investors or exactly what proportion is what.

E: actually come to think of it in China it might be -better- if the rich holds a higher share of the stocks because then the poor gets hosed less when the whole thing crashes down

Typo has issued a correction as of 20:16 on May 26, 2017

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
the difference btwn the Chinese and US stock mkt is that whereas the US stock market is meant to be a capital allocator the Chinese stock market is at least 50% about tricking dumb western investors into thinking that chinese companies are legit so they put their $$$ into a blackbox which gets stolen and is used to buy houses in Vancouver (lol) by providing a superficial layer of legitimacy and guys in suits

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

Commerz posted:

Whilst US households own (directly and indirectly) close to 80% of their stock market (this is because pensions, unlike the chinese stock market), the distribution of stock ownership is highly concentrated toward the top 10% of income earners.
that last bit is why i don't think a stock market crash is happening here- those top 10% have too much to lose in an industry where money is just switching hands from rich person to rich person. granted, i have nothing to prove this other than my own paranoia, so feel free to dismiss me as a kook

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
also wanna hear some funny stories?

so in China major companies all have literal communist party cells in them and said party cells gets to make personal appointment decisions like how the board of director picks CEOs in western countries

so this british investor who held shares in one of them was like "I wanna attend the party meeting cuz I wanna know who you pick for CEO/CFO/ w/e" and the chinese were like "well you can't cuz you aren't a party member" so the british guy had to find this old british communist who joined up during the cultural revolution or something to sit in the meeting for him and take notes.

Typo has issued a correction as of 20:17 on May 26, 2017

mags
May 30, 2008

I am a congenital optimist.
I knew a guy that blew bubbles from his rear end at parties.

mags
May 30, 2008

I am a congenital optimist.
it was me

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

that lots of ordinary people invest in China's stock market just means that lots of ordinary people are getting conned. these are not sophisticated investors. they're people making bets on very incomplete information who have not personally experienced a crash or the effects of large scale fraud yet. basically the average Chinese investor is that uncle who has a TD ameritrade account who thinks twitter is a great buy because you know tech is just so good and it's in the news.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
you know where chinese insiders/rich people invest in?

Vancouver housing.

Should tell you a lot

mormonpartyboat
Jan 14, 2015

by Reene
didnt a chinese company buy out SOE which is why everquest next capsized

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gucci bane
Oct 27, 2008



Best Friends posted:

that lots of ordinary people invest in China's stock market just means that lots of ordinary people are getting conned. these are not sophisticated investors. they're people making bets on very incomplete information who have not personally experienced a crash or the effects of large scale fraud yet. basically the average Chinese investor is that uncle who has a TD ameritrade account who thinks twitter is a great buy because you know tech is just so good and it's in the news.

poor people shouldn't be involved in stock markets because they're dumb? cool.. btw the last crash occurred in 2015, so your entire premise is wrong. Overall despite rhetoric those people would be way better off than poor Americans who invested in their stock market as even despite the crash the shanghai stock market has performed exceedingly well.

also on the other comments yes the Chinese have not tried to enrich foreigners through their communist stock market. what morons.

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