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LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Tayter Swift posted:

That's... not how Confidential data gets marked wtf

It's sourced from the Philippines, not the US.

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LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

CrazySalamander posted:

Can someone explain to me how they can get away with that statement when there's audio please?

They probably weren't aware there was a recording when they made that statement. Lying (except in a court setting under oat) isn't a crime, but it might twist the knife further depending on how the dems utilize it between tonight and tomorrow's poll closing.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

awesmoe posted:

please wait for sourcing before getting all fiesty

The original source seems to be from here:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B...y-confrontation

https://twitter.com/rezahakbari/sta...y-confrontation

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Blunt will be the biggest Trump defender during this testimony.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So thats the AP, Gallup, and Quin that all have him in the mid 30s.

Good work Donald. I can't wait for when Rasmussen releeases a poll with him in the 40s and he tweets about it again.

Rasmussen magically has him back up near his several month high, at 47% approval in their latest. So this could actually happen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Boon posted:

Haha what in the actual gently caress. I'm trying to storyboard out a presentation while listening to this on my phone and I'm laughing out load in my cube

Hey everyone, tomorrow is my Birthday! - President of the United States

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Starting to get some NYT projection movement now that votes are coming in.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/r...WT.nav=top-news

Currently at Handel +0.7

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind


Given that Republicans have a dead-simple strategy to turn any Democrat into a super-Marxist trying to steal your property from you, getting rid of Pelosi wouldn't help. The Democrats need to get better at getting their base out to vote and having a stronger counter-strategy that even has half the success of the Republican's "Liberals are out to destroy your country".

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Ammanas posted:

Because he's thoughtful in his bootlicking and ostensibly doesn't want to annihilate the system of government we've had for last 80 years.

Az is an insanely right wing, racist, STUPID state full of the rejects and psychopath retirees that couldn't stand how 'liberal' CA is. Imagine another King or Cotton in the Senste.

It can get a lot worse than McCain

Trump won AZ by less than 100k votes. 43% of the state is non-white, and that proportion grows rapidly every year. Our state government is overwhelmingly republican, so yes, the replacement will almost certainly be worse than McCain. But AZ is gradually becoming purple and that is having a moderating effect on the republicans who do get elected.

LegendaryFrog fucked around with this message at 03:28 on Jul 20, 2017

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...m=.6abd7a50dc9f

Meanwhile, North Korea appears to be closer to being an intercontinental nuclear threat than we thought. This might be a reality we have to live in with Donald Trump as President. :tif:

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

J Corp posted:

did McCain just give a thumbs down?

It looked like it to me!

Also this:

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/890787768510464000

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

CNN has a free broadcast.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/27/politics/trump-health-care-latest/?l

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

McConnell is a mess. What a catastrophe this has been for the GOP.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

I am finding McCain and buying him a beer when he comes back to Arizona.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Kale posted:

Practically like open rebellion. The fact that it's deep Republican territory too says a lot.

Phoenix (and neighboring Tempe, where I live) have been comparatively liberal for quite some time. We both attempted to be sanctuary cities (until our state legislatures passed a law preventing it), and both have liberal mayors. Greg Stanton has been in open rebellion against trump for quite some time.

On the other hand, Mesa right next door is statistically the most conservative city in the country with >250k citizens, full stop.

The Phoenix protest /counter-rallies tend to draw big numbers, and the one set up this morning for Tuesday's Trump rally is already at 1.4k going, 3.2k interested.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind


The Phoenix PD is investigating themselves, so I am glad that nobody is taking the bait to think that is sufficient and there is a firm commitment to getting an independent investigation rolling.

There is a lot of disappointment from the progressive groups here who organized the protest. We (finally) have a relatively supportive police chief and sheriff, and we were in regular communication with them in the planning phases leading up to the protest. A lot of assurances and measures taken to avoid escalation seem to have been abandoned at some mysterious "flashpoint" last night. I'm confident we will get some answers only because a Tempe city councilman, several State Senators, and lots of press were actually hit with the gas attack that occurred prior to any police warning. This won't get buried anytime soon.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Arpaio considering running for Flake's Senate Senate.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/08/28/could_joe_arpaio_be_the_next_arizona_senator.html

This is probably the best case scenario for Democrat's pickup chances.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind


That tweet has no follow ups that are good for the world.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Slight derail of the incoming Korea chat again, but DACA is my pet issue and I need to vent.

I have been working with dreamers and their families intensely over the past several months, and in that time have gotten to know some of the bravest, most resilient people I have ever met. These people have overcome just about every barrier imaginable to become successful college students, scientists, teachers, paramedics, lawyers, politicians, and beyond.

Some of these dreamers are the sole breadwinners for their households (since they are the only ones legally allowed to do things like work and drive). Many are now starting to have kids of their own. Pretty much all of them are politically active because of the circumstance of their interaction with government.

Few of them plan on shrinking back into the shadows if DACA is repealed. They want to continue resisting, and continue pushing for congress to pass a legislative solution, despite the great personal risk that would now entail for them and their families. No other political subgroup that I have encountered matches the tenacity and unity of these dreamers, and I know there is already a firestorm heading toward this administration based on Trump's position on this.

But I also know have seen their mental exhaustion, their existential fear, and their tears, and the impossible position they are put in to determine whether or not to support DREAM legislation that will almost certainly give them a path to full citizenship while also further criminalizing and endangering their own parents.

I see this mix of inhuman strength and all too human emotion, and all of it breaks my heart.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Captain Monkey posted:

Can you provide any links or resources for people who are also interested in helping?

There are many local focused institutions hear in Arizona (Puente Human Rights Movement, Aliento, Undocumented Students for Education Equity, etc.), but assuming people are pushing at the national level, the Dream Act Coalition is likely your best bet to be effective in affecting the policy battle.

http://drmactioncoalition.org/

Define American also does good work focused on messaging.

https://defineamerican.com/about/

One other thing that struck me with this community is how youth-led everything is. Although there is support from external, more general groups like Progressive Democrats of America, the heavy lifting is accomplished almost entirely by these organizations that are founded, led, and run by people in their mid-20s. It makes it that much more remarkable what they have been able to achieve.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

The sense of dread among my DACA friends for tomorrow's announcement is crushing. Jeff Sessions delivering it does not bode well at all. Some families are making preparations like transferring their money over to their citizen friends for things like bail/legal defense, and packing essentials if they need to get out in a hurry. Hard to know how appropriate that is without knowing the details of the announcement, but tomorrow is going to be an awful day regardless.

Phoenix is having a gathering for the relevant community to watch it live at 8am tomorrow.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

So is it possible that Dems and enough Republicans can save DACA in Congress? Or is any legislation to save it going to be inevitably tied to huge tax cuts or THE WALL and thus be a total non starter? I know its tantamount to negotiating with terrorists but if putting some funding into THE WALL saves DACA isn't that worth it?

And can the individual states who have Dreamers living within it do anything?

States? No. Issues with work permits and deportation are firmly in the federal ballpark.

A lot of DACA advocacy groups have differing opinions on what they can support in terms of compromise legislation. The reality I keep hearing from them is that they are facing a likely choice to support or reject a bill that would simultaneously give them a path to citizenship and their dreams, while also further criminalizing their own parents and putting their family in jeopardy. A lot of soul searching is going on at the moment.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Mind_Taker posted:

I'm as cynical as anyone especially when it comes to McCain and republicans in general but it seems next to impossible to go from this statement to voting yes on the bill.

This. For the flak that McCain gets for "being concerned" to no actual impact, this is a specific and actionable statement, and he doesn't have a history of flip-flopping on those.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Tayter Swift posted:

The President's Other 18 Holes

From that WP article...

"Bannon is recruiting GOP primary challengers in nearly all of the 2018 Senate races, looking for candidates who could defeat Republicans he views as too establishment and highlight the president’s stances on issues such as immigration and trade."

The 2018 election season is going to be a shitshow of epic proportions if Bannon successfully recruits that many GOP challengers from the right. This is quite nearly the only turn of events that could make a democratic takeover of the Senate in 2018 remotely possible.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Office Pig posted:

I sincerely hope you aren't assuming primaries from the right won't turn out votes, regardless.

Republicans will show up and vote republican regardless, and you might even get a general election boost from the MAGA enthusiasm, but removing the infrastructure GOTV advantage of some of those republican incumbents certainly doesn't hurt Democrats trying to win a few red seats.

And jesus I don't think we have to asterisk every political comment on the form about the GOP implosion with DON'T GET COMPLACENT. I've been a campaign volunteer every election for over a decade now. If after 2016 people are tempted to be complacent in 2018, I'd be checking them for brain damage.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

I am grateful that, having grown up in Indiana, all of my trump-voting friends/family back home fall into one of two categories: either they were lovely enough human beings that I disengaged ties with them before the election even finished, or they voted as a "anyone but Hillary!" gesture and now frequently vocalize their acknowledgement that they have made a huge mistake.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

TheKingofSprings posted:

That's slowly happening with demographic change, isn't it?

The GOP has power now but that won't necessarily last and we could be looking at the (fairly slow, but still happening) death throes of the party.

This was a cool idea to have (and oft repeated) in 2004, 2006, and 2008. Oops.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Zwiebel posted:

Wait, they have Bin-Ladens video game stash?
He was playing Final Fantasy 7 and Resident Evil?

Everything about Bin Laden owning a game (FF7) where you join a group of terrorists to blow up giant buildings belonging to a corporate-government hybrid state, in order to save the planet from their excessive consumption, is fascinating.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Aurubin posted:

So this is basically an admission that he has no intention of promoting a DACA fix in the spending bill.

Sounds like it. Hopefully the pressure we are applying on the dems in congress is sufficient enough to ensure they don't blink on the DACA issue.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Coming up on the the actual bill vote now. Last chance for the (highly unlikely) hail mary unexpected nay vote.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

bawfuls posted:

is this 2 minutes of debate before the actual vote? are we done with amendments?

Yeah, this is the vote on the actual bill.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

This bill will cause my taxes to go down significantly (but not nearly as much as Joe Hedgefund Manager). I don't need that, and I didn't ask for that.

This bill will also wreak havoc on our healthcare system, the middle class, the poor, minorities, the deficit, and the economy as a whole.

gently caress this bill.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Old Kentucky Shark posted:

Ryan probably should gotten them to wait until after conferencing to say that.

Yeah.... how does this not significantly reduce their chances at getting the Senate to approve of whatever version of the bill comes out of the House now?

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Chadderbox posted:

Have you ever posted anything Trump related in this thread? Just wondering...


He couldn't even carry Maricopa county last time around. He's done in Arizona, the people are sick of his bullshit. Source: I lived there for 30 years.

I hope he does, and I hope he wins the primary. No better was of ensuring that Sinema wins the senate seat than being against ol' sheriff joe.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Needle of Doom now showing Jones +2.3, 63% chance of winning. Hope is alive!

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Jones +4.7, 76% chance of winning. Hope takes flight!

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Jones +5!

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Imagine the sheer terror inside the GOP is Doug Jones somehow won Alabama by more than EIGHT POINTS.

LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

Bhaal posted:

Is it correct that this isn't counting provisional ballots? Presumably the margin will be even wider.

This news + classic Neil Young in the thread is making my night

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eh44QPT1mPE&t=98s

Provisional Ballots, by default, are typically not even looked at unless the race is particularly close / you are in recount territory. None of them are factoring in tonight.

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LegendaryFrog
Oct 8, 2006

The Mastered Mind

berserker posted:

583's live blog currently shows 50/47 Moore :shrug:

That is the percent of actual votes counted. The NYT is an estimate of likelihood to win based on existing votes vs. expected votes outstanding. The latter is far more useful until over 85%+ votes are counted.

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