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ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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This is a link to the special prosecutors office, can some lovely reporter link it in the op please?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/

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ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Mister Adequate posted:

It'll be the Baltic states before it's Canada. Besides, Trudeau can just let Putin know that he's having... Nunavit :smug:

The Baltics are defended. Can we say the same thing about the North Pole?

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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kartikeya posted:

I...hadn't even noticed that, but wow, yes, very awkwardly placed.

Hello, you must be new to the world. If there is one thing you can trust it's that those seems are entirely intentional.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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This is a couple hours old, might have been mentioned, but since were talkin' bout Armageddon

https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/892396340830928896

"Sen. Lindsey Graham: Trump Says War With North Korea an Option"


A war with NoKo is dependent on all warheads getting blown up before they can be used. And while the icbm system isn't deployed yet, other systems that could do express delivery to Seoul certainly are. Maybe Tokyo, maybe american military bases receiving personnel in preparation.

There's a lot of unacceptable "if"s here if someone fucks something up.

ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Aug 1, 2017

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Enigma89 posted:

Does anyone else think that unless we resolve things peacefully with North Korea, we pretty much have no option but to invade sometime soon? Better now than 2 years from now when they can reliably hit a major city in the US?

Some of us thought that point was 5-10 years ago. It would have "just" been Iraq x10,000 then, not Hiroshima x2. Also, americans note really caring about dead people if they're not (white) 'murican! pisses of US allies.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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tetrapyloctomy posted:

Or he'll order bombing and plan to announce it on Twitter after it starts, but mess up the time zone and tip off the North Koreans fifty minutes before the sorties begin.

:sad:

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Sandeep posted:

North Korean artillery could absolutely hit Seoul.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/5-north-korean-weapons-south-korea-should-fear-14825

"Most of the artillery pieces—numbering in the thousands—are already in place, camouflaged and dug in. Neither the U.S. military nor South Korean forces can hope to eliminate those weapons before they obliterate the city—which by some estimates would take less than two hours. By some estimates, the city could be hit by over half-a-million shells in under an hour."

I''ll direct you to RAND straight away https://www.rand.org/topics/north-korea.html

I have that old report here somewhere if you can't find it there. The takeaway is that NoKo tube artillery could reach the northern Seoul suburbs and no further + ROK has painstakingly scouted out all the prepared and possible positions over a span of decades. It's the scud missiles that constitutes the danger. Aaaand if one of those is loaded with a warhead... and even if it didn't, DPRK as we know has VX. And tech-transfer from Russia. Who put VX in Scuds.

What I'm hearing from people who should know, is that the US has perfect real-time full surveillance of everything that moves inside the DPRK and that they can't launch anything before it would get hit inside a shooting war. I'm healthily sceptical of that, naturally.

ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Aug 1, 2017

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

Did we end up putting a THAAD system in place to protect Seoul?I imagine it is not a good idea to shoot down Scuds loaded with VX mid flight?

The THAAD battery is there, we'll see if ROK buys more eventually. VX, even if it is pre-mixed, could still be neutralized by an explosion especially if the carrier is still full of rocket fuel. It might not be reliable, but it's better than you think.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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JuniperCake posted:

China is frustrated by NK but they want to be seen as the defining power in the region so they absolutely can't do nothing if there is a US invasion. That would be very embarrassing for them (what worth is China's protection if the US can just come in and destroy you anyways?). For obvious reasons they wouldn't want direct war with us but who knows what will happen if they feel pressured into acting. It definitely wouldn't just be sanctions. It would at least result in a proxy war on the peninsula if not cold war relations with the threat of escalation to something far more severe.

If NK strikes first, that's different. They'd have to take a hard stance against NK in that instance.

But it's a moot point, NK doesn't want to be destroyed so they won't attack anyone. They just want to be taken seriously and given a place on the world stage. They shouldn't be given these things so right now it seems the best solution is to isolate and hope the government collapses or there's a coup or something. I don't believe there is a feasible solution for the US to solve the NK problem but there are definitely ways we can make things far worse.

This. China wants status quo (because its making them rich and powerful), North Korea is a headache just because they don't want a status quo (they want to get rich and powerful instead). Under Obama this was diplomatically manageable, since most of the world wanted a status quo.

I'm scared now since Trump is a narcissistic orange-soda can who deifies military history and Great Men in the Military, without having ever having served in war himself. He aught to be under pressure from the last six months and that he can't make it go away. Everyone (Republicans) should be frightened if this soda-can wants to pop.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Mr. Crow posted:

The problem with nuclear war with Russia and China are that they have literally thousands of ICBMs they could launch at once.

North Korea doesn't even have one, shooting down a single or even a couple dozen theoretical missiles is not going to be a big deal.

If you hit. If you miss...

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Kenzie posted:

I see so many people take it for granted that the US will just automatically win a war against North Korea that it's kinda ridiculous.

The US military dropped more bombs on SE Asia during the Vietnam war than all of the Allied powers combined dropped during all of WW2. The US military conducted a massive ground occupation, took hundred of thousands of casualties, dropped tens of millions of tons of bombs and still lost the drat war. The Vietnamese had tunnel networks running literally right underneath American military bases and they didn't even know about them. The US military could barely even handle the Taliban.

I don't know why people still insist that the US military is some all-powerful godlike war-winning machine.

The US Military is very good at blowing up tanks and houses and sponsor action movies. That's why.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Acid Haze posted:

THAAD missiles would probably destroy it more locally (ie Guam, RoK) so the trajectories wouldn't spook Russia or China into a retaliatory strike. But if it gets to the west coast we're hosed cause the US operators will probably be drunk, or asleep, or loving, perhaps playing tag, eating take out, etc.

No.

Just no. There are many details that you missed there. There are no THAAD batteries on the west coast, GBI and AEGIS is not the same thing as THAAD, THAAD in Korea and Japan is not intended to hit missiles aimed at the continental US (they are for Korea n' Japan), what Russia actually sees on their radars is highly classified, Russia also makes a very big deal out of how they don't trust what anyone says about anything, Russia also makes a morbid theatre of this entire mess by publishing uniquely insane numbers and analysis of the DPRK missile program, which in turn means that we don't know if they are pretending or actually are that wrong, and THEN there is the pičce de résistance:
How many missiles would lil' Kim launch when he says "gently caress it all"? The ICBM system is not deployed yet. But everything that would hit Tokyo and Seöl and Beijing and whatever else that belongs in going "gently caress all y'all" is ready to go. Low balling, DPRK has enough material for 40 warheads. They have more missiles than that, and every missile do not need to carry a warhead since they all look the same anyway. The batteries would have to fire at all of them. THAAD do not have an endless supply of missiles to light off.
In short, if NoKo pressed the button they would launch a cloud of poo poo big enough to deplete the interceptor magazines and still hit. E: The interceptors don't always hit either. It's not 1-for-1.

This poo poo is done. Unless someone brings back Ronnie Raygun's space lasers, this poo poo is done.
:caro:

ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 10:59 on Aug 9, 2017

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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SamuraiFoochs posted:

They do for nukes. There are lines literally for that express purpose and nothing else.

...you don't know, do you


this was in 1995. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_rocket_incident
Just because the russians pick up the phone when you call them, doesn't mean that they actually believe what they hear. They might. They have shown too often that they don't.



E: Not to chicken little: I personally do not believe anything is going to happen. But gently caress am I upset over people who actually believe it's possible to blow up all DPRK's offensive missiles in one go, and that it'd be so easy, "like you wouldn't believe, believe me". I do think Trump is trying to impotently threaten back like "art of the deal"-ing with diplomacy, and that this is going in the history books as peak stupidity, but I do not think the USA will do anything but negotiate. Everything is sort of fine.

Trump has spread panic in people who hasn't been afraid of nukes in a long time, though. That will affect the impeachment.
Trump trumped himself again, and everyone will have to accept that the promise of the cleansing flames are back.

ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 10:34 on Aug 9, 2017

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Random thought; do americans use the word Quisling? What would a good future definition of Trumpish sound like?

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Randbrick posted:

It feels lIke :words:

Ever considered it might only be you that doesn't understand the "psychology" aka motivations of DPRK leadership?

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Hollismason posted:

So apparently we don't have a ambassador to South Korea.

That's why we've had 4 different Trump threads since January

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Marching with torches is pretty standard fare here in Scandinavia for anything happening at night. Frankly, you don't have much choice when it gets dark at 4pm.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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TACD posted:

Modifying or tempering your resistance out of fear of what authoritarians might do is called 'appeasement'. It doesn't work.

Well killing people is not going to make things better, white supremacist or not. This is the time for Martin Luther King Jr. When the alt-Nazis start shooting us in the streets ie. when they have abandoned society for all to see, that will be the time for Malcolm X.

The way things are going it will be the same day Mueller looks into a camera and says "Treason".

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Goffer posted:

On a scale 1 to 10 how well did non-aggression work against the nazis last time?

And how many panzer divisions have Steve Bannon got?

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Look, I'm saying that non-violence together with civil disobedience and symbolic stuff, like the perfect example of the womens march, is good for one thing: getting people who was sitting down to stand up for what they believe in. If you're more cynical, acting like you're Jesus is a way to convince people that your side is the righteous one. The strategy of MLK was to realise and affect precisely that, just as much as any political carrot n' stick proposition.

Motherfuckers on the streets are neonazis, AND while I'd like to know more of how Mosley's ilk imploded, punching these social rejects doesn't make them go away. They will stop when they are to embarrassed to walk around together, so doxx them. That is a consequence they can't tolerate.

Getting punched on the other hand is something they can deal with were easily. You see those rifles they have? You miserable bastards, what do you think those are for?!

The 'blood and soil' walkers are walking and screaming in the streets, no question. But they are not in control of the American government. And whatever Sessions is scaring people with now, no one, none of us have been rounded up. Until then nothing will be more useful than convincing more people to stand up for what they already believe in.

You want to keep spewing childish slogans about fighting ww2 against the ugly virgins? Yeaaa, call me when they have an airforce.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Piell posted:

"First, I must confess that over the past few years I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in his stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Counciler or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate, who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says: "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I cannot agree with your methods of direct action"; who paternalistically believes he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by a mythical concept of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait for a "more convenient season." Shallow understanding from people of good will is more frustrating than absolute misunderstanding from people of ill will. Lukewarm acceptance is much more bewildering than outright rejection." - MLK

sometimes I wonder if people can read

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Cingulate posted:

ETA, Ulster Volunteer Force, Chechnyan rebels, German RAF, German NSU, Italian NAR, ...

What works is gaining popular sympathy. What near-universally doesn't work is trying to win by sheer force, unless you actually are the US military.

This.

Some examples not mentioned yet are the fall of the Berlin wall and the entire communist block, the colour revolutions, Maidan, and the arabian spring. Or the crushed Iranian green revolution for that matter.

Stating the obvious here: this discussion is not about MLK or Malcolm X at all. It's that some of us want a (violent & uncompromising) Marxist socialist revolution, and the rest of us don't.
Some posters are only using violent revolutions and uprisings as example for change, some are only using people-in-the-streets-protesting ones. We won't agree on what doesn't work.
Fun times. That Trump really is a thing for the history books isn't he.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Gumbel2Gumbel posted:

I'm loving this violence never solved anything tack people are taking. Like, how do you think almost every conflict in human history has been solved?

What part of "MLK now" but "Malcolm X when they start shooting" is it you pretend to not hear?

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Mahoning posted:

Yeah, it's pretty much this. If you're gonna pull the "we need it to remind us!" argument, then you either honor the people on the right side of history, or you honor those who died in service of ending slavery, or even the millions who lived AND died as slaves!

The one thing you don't need is statues of the people on the wrong side of history. Like, there's not a Hitler statue in the middle of the cemetery in Normandy.

Almost like they disagree on what side was the right one huh?

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Radish posted:

That makes sense. Any idea on numbers? I'm just curious what the proportion is.

Well, Germany/France/Benelux/Britain-europe (ie Western Front), for the rest ww1 isn't outshining the other wars at all. The scale was just enormous for them though, every little hamlet and city had people noticeably gone. There's also one circumstance that made it more noticeable than if it had been f.ex. ebola: only a distinct category was missing. World War 1 was like a genocide of men 18-30.

It's not people statues either, it's story placues and obelisks and so on. Not entirely noticeable at times (there are monuments for other wars too after all).

As to numbers: for the countries of the western front, maybe 80%? Not for the big monumental ones, but for the little one in a random village absolutely.



E. There is still one thing that is very different about ww1 though, compared with the second or the napoleonic or the thirty year wars... the graveyards.
The others had people killed all over and for a long time, and so they are buried here and there like normal people or in small mass graves. But the Western Front famously didn't move. It was done in 4 years.

The cemeteries all look like Arlington.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Tibalt posted:


Like, the whole thing is so bizarre that I'm looking forward to the dramatization that'll get nominated for an Oscar in 10 years.

More like Ken Burn's documentary.

Only question is if it will be more like "Nixon" or "Civil War" :gonk:

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Spikeguy posted:

This may just be a skewed view of what the actual world is, but for the life of me it seems like more young people tend to be liberal than conservative. Do you think that things will swing back to the left overall when a bunch of old people start dying off? Or do you think young liberals will become conservative as they age and keeps numbers roughly the same?

It's alot simpler than that. As the olds die off, their ideas go with them, and the old liberal idea becomes the new normal as they are put into law. The kicker is that the NEW young people are even more liberal than us. There is like 8 more factors to mention, most importantly the class difference between old and young (rich old people sitting on a lifetime of wealth + inheritance don't like risks or change) but that's the basic story of a generations politics.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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nachos posted:

why is this loving idiot president

because americans have forgotten how you got Lincoln out of office

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Crow Jane posted:

It'll never cease to amaze me that he's never once tried to appeal to anyone but his base. Not that anyone else would fall for what he's selling, of course, but like, there's not even an attempt.

Pretty sure he thinks the scum at his rallies are representative of the country as a whole, which is honestly pretty insulting

How can anyone still think Mango Mussolini tries to appeal to anyone at all? That's not what he's doing there; he is pumping himself up, justifying why he is a golden god and that in reality everything is exactly as he wishes they where.

It's the same reason Trump makes ridiculous lies that even he doesn't believe in. He doesn't care. He simply wants them to be true, and because of that he decides they "actually" are. This is what double-think looks like. He's not pandering, he is protecting his ego. He is protecting his golden god self image. "gently caress reality, I'm never wrong and I'll figure out excuses to tell myself." He's saying it out loud because it becomes more real to him that way.

The man is quite literally insane. And to add insult to injury, he's holding us hostage through twitter.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Today's the day...

And the frogs danced their dance :jiggled:

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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St. Dogbert posted:

The downside that has been bandied about is that Republican governors in States with Democratic senators will get their lawmakers to dig up any kind of dirt possible on those senators, pressure them to resign if anything remotely close to what Franken did is found, then replace them with Republicans so the GOP can get their health care and tax cuts passed.

Of course, if any of the Dem senators did something like this, then they should resign as well out of principle. It's just that Republicans aren't going to face the same scrutiny, if any at all. It's an ethical dilemma - doing the right thing in this scenario may lead to a greater deal of suffering than not doing it.

Elect women. One weird trick that republicans hate.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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I saw this. I liked it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkdPCHMLGNM

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Huh, that's interesting... most of the counties going for Moore have all finished counting, while half the ones going Jones at the moment still have plenty precincts left to count.

Ie, if their strata holds, Jones is going to make up the difference in total numbers. In plain english: Soon the needle is only going to go left...




...here comes the blue wave.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Yep. Threat of nuclear war will do that.

ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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49.2% !

49.2% !!!!

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ThisIsJohnWayne
Feb 23, 2007
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Unormal posted:

This isn't true, we can (very easily) end up with a limited nuclear exchange that fucks poo poo up pretty bad but won't kill us all.

as long as it only involves you and the DPRK. If a preemptive war does something that looks scary, scary to China or Russia that is? Heh.

Im not saying the way JFK ended was a thing to remember. That was very bad. Nuclear delivery by way of Minuteman III launches instead of B2, is also a very bad thing. Those Minutemen can look scary.

It's been a year. Mueller or dementia or blue wave impeachment... just. get. it. done.

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