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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is:
This poll is closed.
Labour 907 49.92%
Theresa May Team (Conservative) 48 2.64%
Liberal Democrats 31 1.71%
UKIP 13 0.72%
Plaid Cymru 25 1.38%
Green 22 1.21%
Scottish Socialist Party 12 0.66%
Scottish Conservative Party 1 0.06%
Scottish National Party 59 3.25%
Some Kind of Irish Unionist 4 0.22%
Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian 3 0.17%
Some Kind of Irish Nationalist 36 1.98%
Misc. Far Left Trots 35 1.93%
Misc. Far Right Fash 8 0.44%
Monster Raving Loony 49 2.70%
Space Navies Party 39 2.15%
Independent / Single Issue 2 0.11%
Can't Vote 188 10.35%
Won't Vote 8 0.44%
Spoiled Ballot 15 0.83%
Pissflaps 312 17.17%
Total: 1817 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Locked thread
kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Last time the space navies party came up I accidentally insulted them by implying they werent registered

Turns out i was wrong

http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP549

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Guy Goodbody
Aug 31, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo
I took that poll and it turns out I'm 60% Green, 20% Labour, and 20% Lib Dem. Zero percent Space Navies is surprising to me.

But I did have to do a lot of guessing on what some of the policies meant

Angepain
Jul 13, 2012

what keeps happening to my clothes

now admittedly that doesn't answer my questions directly but I am still 100% on board <--- look here

ISeeCuckedPeople
Feb 7, 2017

by Smythe

spectralent posted:

"Limit access to foreign nationals" means "People who work and live here and pay taxes to fund this health service, who may even work in this health services, should Go Home if they want medical care for anything less than a heart attack".

Now explain why some people want to do away with fuel subsidies for flights and not expand your airports?

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

Now explain why some people want to do away with fuel subsidies for flights and not expand your airports?

Green party, one would assume? They're basically luddites.

Killed By Death
Jun 29, 2013


ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

Well as it was presented to me...

None of these seemed to bad of an idea to me....
I think one of the major problems left-leaning posters in this thread might have with this argument (beyond this other stuff), is that you would've been presented with several "reverse privatisation" or "re-nationalise" commitments, but decided that they weren't worthwhile/important. Although maybe as an American your perspective on this is different?

Guy Goodbody
Aug 31, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo

ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

Now explain why some people want to do away with fuel subsidies for flights and not expand your airports?

It is an island, you can only expand airports so much

Paperhouse
Dec 31, 2008

I think
your hair
looks much
better
pushed
over to
one side
Still watching the debate - Caroline Lucas is great, isn't she :swoon: Leanne Wood is also good. Whoever the SNP bloke is has come across pretty well too, and Farron has actually seemed alright as well. Nuttall and Rudd utter poo poo

Namtab
Feb 22, 2010

It's easy to find the ukip one because they're the only ones that talk about restricting foreign nationals when it comes to healthcare.

spectralent
Oct 1, 2014

Me and the boys poppin' down to the shops

ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

Now explain why some people want to do away with fuel subsidies for flights and not expand your airports?

Fuel subsidy for flight would make flying cheaper to operate and lead to under-valuing of a carbon source, I assume. Opposing that would be trying to financially encourage people to make less flights. Remember this is the UK, if you need to get to most places in the UK it's like a 6-8 hour train ride at most, there's really no reason to fly within-country.

Airport expansion's a contentious issue since we really really want to have The Biggest Airport Ever but it'd probably be better if we were expanding airport capacity all around the country.

Vitamin P
Nov 19, 2013
Probation
Can't post for 13 days!

Paperhouse posted:

Still watching the debate - Caroline Lucas is great, isn't she :swoon: Leanne Wood is also good. Whoever the SNP bloke is has come across pretty well too, and Farron has actually seemed alright as well. Nuttall and Rudd utter poo poo

On reflection Farrons Cheeky Chappy routine was significantly more embarrassing than Mays no-show.

spectralent
Oct 1, 2014

Me and the boys poppin' down to the shops
But also yeah the main reason I can never vote green ever is because I studied a science and the Greens either don't understand or don't care about science.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Vitamin P posted:

On reflection Farrons Cheeky Chappy routine was significantly more embarrassing than Mays no-show.

Remember that your baseline for that is Tim Farron Existing.

spectralent posted:

But also yeah the main reason I can never vote green ever is because I studied a science and the Greens either don't understand or don't care about science.

In fairness nor do most politicians.

ISeeCuckedPeople
Feb 7, 2017

by Smythe

spectralent posted:

Fuel subsidy for flight would make flying cheaper to operate and lead to under-valuing of a carbon source, I assume. Opposing that would be trying to financially encourage people to make less flights. Remember this is the UK, if you need to get to most places in the UK it's like a 6-8 hour train ride at most, there's really no reason to fly within-country.

Airport expansion's a contentious issue since we really really want to have The Biggest Airport Ever but it'd probably be better if we were expanding airport capacity all around the country.

6 to 8 hours is a long period of time. If I could fly for a reasonable price as I understand you can in England to these places that I go in America I would.

But from my airport a 1.5 hour flight cost $400 and a 3-4 one costs $700. And those are local within the us. Not international.

TACD
Oct 27, 2000

ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

Now explain why some people want to do away with fuel subsidies for flights and not expand your airports?
You can't realistically tackle climate change while also farting out an ever-increasing number of jumbo jets.

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

6 to 8 hours is a long period of time. If I could fly for a reasonable price as I understand you can in England to these places that I go in America I would.

But from my airport a 1.5 hour flight cost $400 and a 3-4 one costs $700. And those are local within the us. Not international.

That is the point.

Paperhouse
Dec 31, 2008

I think
your hair
looks much
better
pushed
over to
one side

Vitamin P posted:

On reflection Farrons Cheeky Chappy routine was significantly more embarrassing than Mays no-show.

His opening speech was laughable but he's had some decent rebuttals so far

I don't get why some of the other left parties are attacking Corbyn and Labour on anything :confused: that's not the target man

Snipee
Mar 27, 2010
Following the UK election helps me cope with living in Trumpland. Thanks guys.

Trin Tragula
Apr 22, 2005

I've been bored and trying to avoid things, so I decided to go poke around at these magical new YouGov polls and projections that we're all relying on for a little hope, instead of the diabolical TNS ones that Theresa May is taking to bed with her at night. YouGov has also produced a very clever thingy which is currently attempting to give (sort of) bespoke constituency-by-constituency results rather than trying to extrapolate from a national uniform swing (a concept that's been steadily declining towards irrelevance since 2010).

What I was trying to do was figure out how they think Labour might get near the Times headline projection of a hung parliament. Since the referendum I've been absolutely fascinated by the potential effect of voters who went for UKIP in 2015 thinking "job done" and going back to an established party; there are a lot of constituencies out there, the pattern is repeated again and again, in which the incumbent MP has a reasonable-but-not-safe majority of somewhere between 2,000 and 5,000. The UKIP vote is higher than the majority (so if they all switched to the party who finished second in 2015, the seat would flip), and there's also somewhere between 1,500 and 4,000 (again, depending on the constituency) combined Lib Dem and Green voters who might just be tempted to vote tactically this time. I reckon these are the seats they're looking at; they're thinking that there's a reasonable chance of Labour taking enough of them off the Tories, and holding on when they hold a seat with those demographics, to swing it.

(n.b. this ignores the potential effect of increased youth turnout because I've seen enough elections to believe that when I see it and not before)

Here's an example of the sort of thing I'm talking about. Hastings & Rye is a Tory-held seat with a majority of 4,796 (9.4% of all votes cast). The UKIP vote last time was 6,786 (11%). The Lib Dems and Greens combine for about 3,500 votes. The current YouGov prediction* has the seat pissing all over national swing, with Labour winning on about 45%, the Tories on about 42%, and UKIP nowhere at about 5%. There's also a major comedy wild card here that they don't mention or attempt to quantify; this is Amber Rudd's seat. God knows what that's going to mean. The election is full of these seats: Ipswich, Reading East, Dudley North, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland. They're going to be where the election is decided. Which way does the UKIP vote swing, are the kids going to turn out, and are there any local peculiarities?

*Even YouGov themselves don't really know because they can't poll most individual constituencies in enough detail, so are trying to guess based on cleverly extrapolating from people they are polling in other constituencies, and weighting them and unskewing them and :psyberger: . The headline numbers in H&R are a predicted 45-42 Labour victory, but you look at that for half a second and you quickly see that there's a gargantuan margin of error; the actual prediction is Labour on anywhere between 38% and 52%, and the Tories on anywhere between 36% and 47%. And the worst-case scenario of the Tories on 47% and Labour on 38% in the constituency lines up nicely inside the margin of error on that national TNS poll. They don't loving know what the seat breakdown's going to be! Nobody knows. But it's fun when the Times splashes their numbers on the front page as gospel...

(There's also a second interesting category; seats where UKIP finished in second place, or with more than 10,000 votes, or both. Penistone & Stocksbridge has a Labour majority of over 6,000. UKIP were third last time on 10,738. This constituency literally has the potential to turn into an ultra-safe Labour seat, or a safe Tory seat. Rotherham; 8,400 majority for Labour, 11,400 UKIP voters out there who boosted them into second last time.)

ISeeCuckedPeople
Feb 7, 2017

by Smythe

TACD posted:

You can't realistically tackle climate change while also farting out an ever-increasing number of jumbo jets.

Sure you can. 20%-30% of carbon emissions come from livestock. Only like 10% come from planes. If that. Planes are pretty green compared to cars.

Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

6 to 8 hours is a long period of time. If I could fly for a reasonable price as I understand you can in England to these places that I go in America I would.

But from my airport a 1.5 hour flight cost $400 and a 3-4 one costs $700. And those are local within the us. Not international.

That's because your airlines are bad. You can quite easily get £100 2-hour flights around the EU, so airfares are cheap enough subsidy isn't needed, decreased emissions are.

Nothingtoseehere fucked around with this message at 00:58 on Jun 1, 2017

Namtab
Feb 22, 2010

Paperhouse posted:

His opening speech was laughable but he's had some decent rebuttals so far

I don't get why some of the other left parties are attacking Corbyn and Labour on anything :confused: that's not the target man

Realistically their votes are going to come from Labour voters. See: recent Scottish politics

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Paperhouse posted:

His opening speech was laughable but he's had some decent rebuttals so far

I don't get why some of the other left parties are attacking Corbyn and Labour on anything :confused: that's not the target man

If the Lib Dems can siphon off enough of Labour's support they can play kingmaker again and get back into coalition with the Tories.

spectralent
Oct 1, 2014

Me and the boys poppin' down to the shops

OwlFancier posted:

In fairness nor do most politicians.

They make less of a big deal about the environment, though, and the environment is fundamentally a scientific, evidence-based issue. If you care about the environment, pay attention to scientists. Otherwise you're just doing hippy grandstanding.


ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

6 to 8 hours is a long period of time. If I could fly for a reasonable price as I understand you can in England to these places that I go in America I would.

But from my airport a 1.5 hour flight cost $400 and a 3-4 one costs $700. And those are local within the us. Not international.

I did say "tops", Brighton to Aberdeen is 8 hours 30. But flying's not good for the environment, so I can understand why you'd want to limit it if you wanted a drastic programme to lower carbon emissions, which coincidentally we do.

Namtab
Feb 22, 2010

Tintowers been quiet lately

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

Sure you can. 20%-30% of carbon emissions come from livestock. Only like 10% come from planes. If that. Planes are pretty green compared to cars.

And far less so than trains.

Trains are good.

spectralent posted:

They make less of a big deal about the environment, though, and the environment is fundamentally a scientific, evidence-based issue. If you care about the environment, pay attention to scientists. Otherwise you're just doing hippy grandstanding.

I would probably argue that the prevailing attitude is that the environment doesn't really matter, which is also a bollockfeel position.

deletebeepbeepbeep
Nov 12, 2008
How big is PISSFLAPS hard on?

spectralent
Oct 1, 2014

Me and the boys poppin' down to the shops

OwlFancier posted:

And far less so than trains.

Trains are good.


I would probably argue that the prevailing attitude is that the environment doesn't really matter, which is also a bollockfeel position.

Well, yes, but "The environment doesn't matter, because capitalism" shouldn't be met with "the environment does matter, because ~gaia~".

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

spectralent posted:

Well, yes, but "The environment doesn't matter, because capitalism" shouldn't be met with "the environment does matter, because ~gaia~".

Not ideally no, but I'll take sappy hippies over people who are liable to gently caress us over out of malice.

Alas most human activity is emotional, not cognitive, so any political party advocating for saving the planet is going to attract a lot of people who want to do that by singing at it and holding hands.

What you'd want is the technocratic party, which sadly would also attract a bunch of silicon valley techbros, because you can even approach science in a cargo cult fashion.

I mean I'm a bloody commie mostly out of a mix of spite and idealism so I don't feel qualified to complain about the greens.

OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 01:08 on Jun 1, 2017

Paperhouse
Dec 31, 2008

I think
your hair
looks much
better
pushed
over to
one side

Namtab posted:

Realistically their votes are going to come from Labour voters. See: recent Scottish politics

Yeah but... do they want the Tories to win

I mean I guess everyone know they will so

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Paperhouse posted:

Yeah but... do they want the Tories to win

I mean I guess everyone know they will so

Probably?

Namtab
Feb 22, 2010

deletebeepbeepbeep posted:

How big is PISSFLAPS hard on?

I'll tell you once I get done seducing him

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

Sure you can. 20%-30% of carbon emissions come from livestock. Only like 10% come from planes. If that. Planes are pretty green compared to cars.
Planes are bad for nearby transport. It's just a wasteful way to travel if you're not going hundreds of miles. Britain just isn't a big enough island for it to be a necessity. Especially not if we renationalise the railways and actually make train travel affordable again. It's a loving outrage that it's almost half the cost to fly to London & back from Inverness get a return to London on the train.

Gum
Mar 9, 2008

oho, a rapist
time to try this puppy out

Namtab posted:

Tintowers been quiet lately

#libdemfallback

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

forkboy84 posted:

Planes are bad for nearby transport. It's just a wasteful way to travel if you're not going hundreds of miles. Britain just isn't a big enough island for it to be a necessity. Especially not if we renationalise the railways and actually make train travel affordable again. It's a loving outrage that it's almost half the cost to fly to London & back from Inverness get a return to London on the train.

High-speed rail is the other way to cut right down on intra-UK flights but of course we can't do that because ~the fields~

ISeeCuckedPeople
Feb 7, 2017

by Smythe

nothing to seehere posted:

That's because your airlines are bad. You can quite easily get £100 2-hour flights around the EU, so airfares are cheap enough subsidy isn't needed, decreased emissions are.

The airlines would all convene together to do massive price hikes and blame the party who removed the subsidies and they would lose the next election based off that attack.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

The airlines would all convene together to do massive price hikes and blame the party who removed the subsidies and they would lose the next election based off that attack.

This sounds very american
(and very illegal)

vodkat
Jun 30, 2012



cannot legally be sold as vodka

Trin Tragula posted:

I've been bored and trying to avoid things, so I decided to go poke around at these magical new YouGov polls and projections that we're all relying on for a little hope, instead of the diabolical TNS ones that Theresa May is taking to bed with her at night. YouGov has also produced a very clever thingy which is currently attempting to give (sort of) bespoke constituency-by-constituency results rather than trying to extrapolate from a national uniform swing (a concept that's been steadily declining towards irrelevance since 2010).

What I was trying to do was figure out how they think Labour might get near the Times headline projection of a hung parliament. Since the referendum I've been absolutely fascinated by the potential effect of voters who went for UKIP in 2015 thinking "job done" and going back to an established party; there are a lot of constituencies out there, the pattern is repeated again and again, in which the incumbent MP has a reasonable-but-not-safe majority of somewhere between 2,000 and 5,000. The UKIP vote is higher than the majority (so if they all switched to the party who finished second in 2015, the seat would flip), and there's also somewhere between 1,500 and 4,000 (again, depending on the constituency) combined Lib Dem and Green voters who might just be tempted to vote tactically this time. I reckon these are the seats they're looking at; they're thinking that there's a reasonable chance of Labour taking enough of them off the Tories, and holding on when they hold a seat with those demographics, to swing it.

(n.b. this ignores the potential effect of increased youth turnout because I've seen enough elections to believe that when I see it and not before)

Here's an example of the sort of thing I'm talking about. Hastings & Rye is a Tory-held seat with a majority of 4,796 (9.4% of all votes cast). The UKIP vote last time was 6,786 (11%). The Lib Dems and Greens combine for about 3,500 votes. The current YouGov prediction* has the seat pissing all over national swing, with Labour winning on about 45%, the Tories on about 42%, and UKIP nowhere at about 5%. There's also a major comedy wild card here that they don't mention or attempt to quantify; this is Amber Rudd's seat. God knows what that's going to mean. The election is full of these seats: Ipswich, Reading East, Dudley North, Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland. They're going to be where the election is decided. Which way does the UKIP vote swing, are the kids going to turn out, and are there any local peculiarities?

*Even YouGov themselves don't really know because they can't poll most individual constituencies in enough detail, so are trying to guess based on cleverly extrapolating from people they are polling in other constituencies, and weighting them and unskewing them and :psyberger: . The headline numbers in H&R are a predicted 45-42 Labour victory, but you look at that for half a second and you quickly see that there's a gargantuan margin of error; the actual prediction is Labour on anywhere between 38% and 52%, and the Tories on anywhere between 36% and 47%. And the worst-case scenario of the Tories on 47% and Labour on 38% in the constituency lines up nicely inside the margin of error on that national TNS poll. They don't loving know what the seat breakdown's going to be! Nobody knows. But it's fun when the Times splashes their numbers on the front page as gospel...

(There's also a second interesting category; seats where UKIP finished in second place, or with more than 10,000 votes, or both. Penistone & Stocksbridge has a Labour majority of over 6,000. UKIP were third last time on 10,738. This constituency literally has the potential to turn into an ultra-safe Labour seat, or a safe Tory seat. Rotherham; 8,400 majority for Labour, 11,400 UKIP voters out there who boosted them into second last time.)

I'm to drunk to contribute anything useful but thanks for a proper :words: write up, interesting/exciting stuff

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Julio Cruz posted:

High-speed rail is the other way to cut right down on intra-UK flights but of course we can't do that because ~the fields~

Selfishly I'd settle for some of the sweet electrification of the Highland tracks. I get excited by the mere prospect of knocking 15 minutes off the journey from Inverness to Glasgow.

ISeeCuckedPeople posted:

The airlines would all convene together to do massive price hikes and blame the party who removed the subsidies and they would lose the next election based off that attack.

Think you're over-estimating how important flying is in peoples lives. Reminder that Britain is actually not a big island.

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Angepain
Jul 13, 2012

what keeps happening to my clothes

Trin Tragula posted:

I've been bored and trying to avoid things, so I decided to go poke around at these magical new YouGov polls and projections that we're all relying on for a little hope, instead of the diabolical TNS ones that Theresa May is taking to bed with her at night. YouGov has also produced a very clever thingy which is currently attempting to give (sort of) bespoke constituency-by-constituency results rather than trying to extrapolate from a national uniform swing (a concept that's been steadily declining towards irrelevance since 2010).

I do like it when pollsters try to ram it into the reader's skull that a confidence interval is a thing that might be relevant to analysis of a survey. The graph for Glasgow North is a fun one.

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