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What is going to be your favorite offseason storyline?
This poll is closed.
The Big3 Tourney 67 22.41%
Will Lakers draft Ball 40 13.38%
Where will the Pauls go 54 18.06%
Will LeBron jump ship to the Spurs or ?? 41 13.71%
Will every team in the league just pivot towards tanking 97 32.44%
Total: 210 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!
Teams used to send 2 or 3 guys to the offensive glass; now they send 1 if any. Everyone's so concerned about giving up open 3s/layups/fouls in transition that transition defense is prioritized over offensive rebounding. It's like when they box out after a free throw - the shot is so likely to go in, and even if it misses the defensive rebounder has such a massive advantage, that the offensive rebounder only gives a token effort. That same dynamic happens on live ball possessions now.

So it doesn't surprise me that rebounding no longer is highly correlated with winning.

Look back at games from earlier decades... every time a shot goes up it is a loving war down there. Now that doesn't happen outside of crunch time or if Tristan Thompson is in the game.

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proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!
Big3 is pretty entertaining.

https://youtu.be/Vg8qYQddhXw

proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!
Question for the stats nerds in here: what team-level statistics show the most correlation with winning basketball games? My gut tells me it'd be something like team true shooting percentage or opponents' true shooting percentage. Maybe something having to do with win shares, which I don't completely understand?

On a related question, what your favorite (free) place to find good statistics, with a no nonsense presentation and a robust set of filters?

proctorbot
Jan 27, 2005
BUT CAN IT FEEL??!?!

dokmo posted:



pts/possession
then total shooting
then 2pt shooting
then 3pt shooting
then other stuff

awesome, beautiful. Thanks dokmo.

Another question on my mind... Is it possible to statistically isolate the effects of playing on the second night of a back to back against a team playing with a day's rest or more? Does it have a larger (statistical) effect on a single game's outcome than, say, playing an away game? Or is it even possible to isolate those variables.

What about length of rest prior to the game, say, for example, in the last 10 years, in games where a team on 3 days rest played a team on 1 days rest, what percentage of the games were won by the 3 day team vs the 1 day team? and the various permutations of this situation? What about when controlling for the influence of home vs away?

Is there anyone on the net doing this kind of analysis?

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