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Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Ill take Carolina again.

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Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

T-Bone posted:

I'd offer to run this in EHM but I don't think there's a database with Vegas yet :(

There probably will be by the time we start.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Hey Carolina made it in. Laine and Hellebuyck were good, so there's that.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Teemu Pokemon posted:

They just swept the Islanders, too.

Defence wins championships

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Arabian Jesus posted:

I could takeover the Kings but I'm also working odd hours this summer. If I sign up would there be someone I could msg my picks in case I end up unable to be online at the time?

Yep. Also this is very common.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Laderhan posted:

Was considering a center here, butttt :finland: Ottawa selects RW Patrik Laine.

my pick from last year vindicated as not being too early.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Phone posting so will try to effort it later.

Patrick Kane was already taken, and this guy is just a younger Patrick Kane. Carolina takes Mitch Marner.

e; it feels like this year is skewing younger than years past.

Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 02:29 on Jul 14, 2017

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Jamwad Hilder posted:

Agreed, but it's not a horrible pick. I'd love to hear the rationale.

There's not a lot to dig into tbh. At the 20 spot you're picking young players who you want to build around. How young depends on what kind of team you're looking to build. I really like Marner, more than the other wingers who would be comparable to him in terms of age / skill ceiling . There are centers I like as much as him, but as someone else said, there are a lot of centers available and I'll probably be able to grab someone comparable on the way back around.

In terms of why I value him so highly... His performance in his rookie pro season was pretty good and there's nothing really there to suggest he won't build off that next year. His on ice sh% is maybe a bit high, but his own shooting % is low and I think his IPP was probably unluckily low too.

I think the Matthews @ 5 pick was as much a reach as this (just because of how high it was, I understand why you make that pick if you want that guy). So was Gaudreau @ whatever it was picked at. Gaudreau's 23 year old season was basically identical to Marner's 19 year old season.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

T-Bone posted:

for me it was between Tavares/Seguin/Schiefele/Tarasenko.

Scheifele's 20% shooting percentage scared me a little, even if he's younger than Seguin. Tarasenko is nasty but he's on the wing, and I think Tavares might be the best of the four but he's a bit older. I wouldn't have been unhappy with any of them but I think Seguin was the right choice.

In a vacuum Scheifele's season looks like it was an aberration. Lowered his shooting rate from previous years and shot 20% himself. 3nd in the league in on ice shooting %, and his linemate was first (with 500 minutes as the minimum TOI). It's unlikely he repeats those 40 ES assists. Normally I'd say he's due for a regression, but given his linemate is Laine, who appears to be the second coming of Ovechkin, who knows.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Phone posting again. Aaron Ekblad.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

Little worried about that boy's brain

Yeah, maybe. Concussions are tough to gauge though. Getting a bunch early doesn't necessarily mean anything.

Outside of that though he's amazing. He was unlucky this year but still very effective. And he's 21 and has massive upside.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

He seemed as dominant as ever last year when he was actually playing. And his skating is so good that even losing some of it would still have him being a great dman.

But yeah the whole made of glass thing is a bit of a concern.

The injury thing is a major concern with Letang.

I like Trouba and Lindholm but I don't see a big argument for them over any of the guys who were mentioned. They're all second tier #1s with the exception of Shattenkirk who is probably the best PP quarterback in the league (but not a #1).

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Kilza posted:

If I thought Letang was going to stay healthy, I would have gone for him over Klingberg. Then again, if I thought Letang was going to stay healthy, somebody else would've thought that too and picked him way earlier (late 1st/early 2nd).

If he was healthy he'd be somewhere in the top 4 D picked.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

If he could stay healthy I'd take him over anyone but Karlsson I think. He's that good.

I think there's a clear Karlsson / Burns / Hedman top 3 that Letang would make 4. Not sure I'd take him over Hedman even if he was fully healthy, and he and Burns would be a bit of a toss up too.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

Teemu Pokemon is on the clock until 2:09 ET, then Kilza

Also, all told Letang has played 75% of the total regular season games over the last 10 years. While his health is devastatingly suspect, he has still somehow managed to keep himself around for the most part.

67% of the last 5. 55GP pace.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

ThinkTank posted:

I'm around so I'll take Ryan Suter now that Jamwad is skipped.

Technetium is up.

Tech gets skipped at 5:34 est

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
It's maybe a tiny bit early for him, but Ginette has two picks before I go again and took him in the fourth round last year. I'm taking Matt Murray.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

Alright. His declining point totals are concerning but he's still one of the most talented players in the league and an ace on the powerplay. I'll take Claude Giroux.

I was wondering when he would go. I find we suffer from serious recency bias during these things.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

He's not exactly young so I might have just hosed up but I feel like he's better than a 58 point player. We'll see I guess.

He's had some really bad luck (personal shooting %. never that high, keeps getting worse, and so does his on ice sh %) but it's been three years in a row. Guy seems like he'd maybe appreciate a shakeup.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

stab posted:

Les Canadiens de Montreal sont tres fiers de selectionee un joueur de chez nous.

Un joueur qu'on va surement ruinee son potentielle pis nos fans pis notre media vont arrache sa tete et il aura seulement du succes quand ils est parti de Montreal


Jonathan Drouin

It's gonna be wild to watch the Montreal media have a legit Quebec star to rip on again.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Furnaceface posted:

Im leaving for a tiny holiday tomorrow and wont be back until Friday night. Can I email someone some picks since Im only like 5 away and more than likely will miss tomorrow mornings draft call?

Yeah you can send em to

jordandalyfrey

@gmail

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
I'm taking Sam Reinhart.

He's easy to forget but he's 21 year old #2 overall pick who is just scratching the surface of his offensive potential. On Buffalo, so it's all relative, but his possession stats are good too.

I think the Sabres are going to regret not extending him this summer.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Jamwad Hilder posted:

seems way too early for Hischier

Next year he probably goes in the second round. It's fine taking a #1, even in a bad year, over guys who are comparable to Prororov, El Niņo, and Richard Rakell.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Jamwad Hilder posted:

I think it's too early unless you really want the full three years of the deal (meaningless in this draft) or think he's going to be something special right away.

The entire draft is meaningless. It's not necessarily about building the team that scores the most next season. Beyond just gimmick teams (like what I assumed ThinkTank was doing until his last pick) there are also just different philosophies around how you build your team. I'd be surprised if Hischier made it back around, so if you want that #1 pick you've kinda got to take him now.

Jordan7hm fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Jul 19, 2017

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Vincent Van Goat posted:

Phoneposting right now, but I'll take Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. I think he's more than capable of anchoring my third line.

Jamwad Hilder is up, followed by ThinkTank

Yo this was a good pick. I was hoping he'd fall a little bit more.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
I am taking a guy who is going to be a star for a very bad team for a very long time.

Shea Theodore

Good name stock too.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
I was looking at Domi but man his fancies are just real bad The Mika pick is good. He's a solid second line centre / winger.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Risto is hard to gauge. Dude is a monster baby playing crazy heavy minutes he absolutely is not ready to play, but if he were playing sheltered minutes like most other guys his age he would probably be lauded as a future superstar.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Technetium posted:

Rask was average last year, is 30 and has 4 years at 7 million. Andersen's posted better numbers this year and last and is cheaper and younger. No clue why people are down on Andersen but Rask is not better.

e: i should say Rask was a much better goalie than Andersen but he seems to be past his prime now.

30 is not past a goalie's prime, by a long shot

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Technetium posted:

It's when most start declining yes.


Yeah I mean Rask has been amongst the elite during his career but back to back average seasons leave me wondering if he's ever going to be elite again or just a regular starter.

Patrick Roy came out of the lockout pretty rough and had two mediocre seasons before turning it back around.

Hasek was pretty meh in Detroit for a few years there before being an absolute beast for Ottawa.

Luongo had two pretty average seasons in 2012-14 and then three pretty good seasons.

Tim Thomas's three year run bookended by Vezinas (with losing his job because he wasn't very good during that middle season).

Etc

Good goalies have mediocre seasons some times, for lots of reasons.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Verviticus posted:

agreed that hall of fame goaltenders sometimes don't follow the same curve

Yeah. And Rask's sv% through his first 15000 minutes of play puts him in that clas.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Verviticus posted:

i think you're overrating his career and i definitely wouldn't bank on him being a better choice than andersen for the length of their contracts

I might buy this argument with another goalie but Andersen has a single season with a save % above 920. His last two seasons, representing 50% of his body of work in the NHL, were barely better than Rask's "mediocre seasons". His other full season was slightly worse. Dude is a .918 goalie after about 5k shots and, other than goalies being voodoo, will probably not be more than that.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
I don't think he's immune to aging, but those two seasons don't fit along any kind of aging curve. They're huge drops from his previous standard of performance. That's why I think they're more likely to be outliers.

I think Luongo is probably a reasonable comparison to Rask at the same stage of their careers, though Rask has had higher highs and lower lows.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Hoffman - RoR - Toffoli is a real good first line at least.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

Dammit I was gonna take Toffoli and was amazed he kept slipping. I was hoping nobody else noticed him.

I have no choice then but to go full homer. Pittsburgh takes Jake Guentzel.


e:

Guentzel-Giroux-Rakell
Horvat


Pietrangelo

Price

gently caress gently caress gently caress gently caress gently caress you

I knew I should have picked him before you got two in a row.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

I was surprised you didn't spring on him earlier. I had my eyes on Toffoli as I think his game is more rounded than Guentzel's at this point but I'm still happy to get Jake.

I thought he was more likely to come back than Theodore given the run on D.

Anyway I'll make my pick shortly, need to do some quick research.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy
Guentzel is for real. My only concern with him is his size and where he likes to play. He's super smart / elusive but he goes into places where you get hurt, and at some point that's gonna catch up to him.

Anyway I'm taking a guy who scores at every level, is coming off a very under appreciated rookie season, and who has shockingly good WOWYs and fancies (in admittedly only a season of work). Anthony Mantha.

Which leaves me with

Mantha - Reinhardt - Marner

Theodore - Ekblad

Murray

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

JoelJoel posted:

Lol, the guy with half a season shooting 20 percent playing with hall of famers.

You guys are blinded by youth jfc.

Watch the kind of shots Guentzel takes and where he takes them from. He gets open so that he has the time to picks corners. He's gonna be a Tanguay. In pro hockey he has 58 goals on 290 shots. Unless his game changes significantly his low end shooting is going to be like 14%.

Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

T-Bone posted:

also gently caress off for taking Mantha

I like your team although I wonder if it has an elite dude who can carry (maybe Murray as he progresses) a team to the Cup, it's going to look good but it's giving me young St. Louis Blues syndrome

It hurts not picking in the top 10 when you're aiming real young. I think Marner is gonna be Kane good though.

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Jordan7hm
Feb 17, 2011




Lipstick Apathy

Ginette Reno posted:

I haven't seen McAvoy play a ton but he seems promising.

He was incredible in the playoffs.

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