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glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Does Reaves punch way harder than Sestito or something? Niskanen might think twice about having anymore accidents, otherwise Tom Wilson will get punched by some guy for him!

https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/878432231798296576

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glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Suspicious posted:

I suppose whoever gets Alzner will end up overpaying, but he's not that bad of a dman, is he?

The criticism of him is a little overdone because he was very clearly played in too prominent a role with the Caps all last season and his reputation seems to be lining up for some team to overpay. It's fair to say he's very one-dimensional and slow, but he played against the toughest QoC on the Caps last season. In a reduced role he could probably be pretty good because he's a very good decision-maker and he is actually good in his one dimension when he isn't up against speed, but in free-agency he's going to get more money than someone in that role should get.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


a false posted:

i'd personally want to lock him up for more than 8 years. i mean, you're screwed in the event of catastrophic injury, but that's true for anybody, right?

If Ovechkin had been limited to the current 8 year max when he signed his current 13 year extension he would have been a free agent after the 2015-2016 season in which he scored 50 goals. Would've been interesting to see what happened this past season.

Benson Cunningham posted:

From watching McDavid play, he looks like a Crosby level talent. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get upwards of $15m a year on a long term contract.

$15 million is the current single player max based on 20% of the $75 mil cap.

glynnenstein fucked around with this message at 23:27 on Jun 27, 2017

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Dynamo Moscow HC has... problems

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Karl Alzner is one of the nicest guys in the world and I hope he gets a huge amount of money but that is bananas.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/881643827488051201

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


These super simple game score charts are fun.

https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/880096414424084480

https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/881658017338593280

He should add a line for salary comps.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014



He looks good in certain narrow views. He probably is better than we think of him because his gaffs are so glaring in the eye test. (Slow as hell, pushes people into his goalie, takes bad penalties.)

The bottom line is that he's crazy expensive for a 3rd pairing D, which is a much bigger drag on the Caps than his on-ice play. After the last 10 days or so I'm not sure that GMBM is tuned in to that aspect as well as I'd thought, either.

On The Fly defensemen corsi leaders:

https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/880148972349861889

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


https://twitter.com/DimFilipovic/status/882333049685385216

The Caps would almost certainly be better in 2 or 3 years, and perhaps immediately if they'd followed that plan.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


I hope he took less money, but only a 1 year deal so he can torture EDM again next year.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Kilza posted:

Well it's $750k more cap space, which Chiarelli can use to sign good players and help the Oilers win the St-

*Chiarelli signs Russell*

oops


Exactly. It's a fool's gamble to sacrifice your own salary so the team can compete. Maybe your GM will build a rock solid contender like the 2017 Caps, or maybe your GM will mismanage young cost controlled assets and overpay high shooting % like the 2018 Caps.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Powershift posted:

This teenager who signed a contract that will give him $100,000,000 is an idiot because he could have signed a contract that would give hime $108,000,000. he'll be 28 instead of 25 when the contract is over, s he'll only have 12 more productive hockey years instead of 15.

There's no way he will be able to save for retirement now. What a moron.

He could have had $120 million.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


DC is in a special situation. It has agreements with MD and VA about taxes so that you only pay as a resident of either MD or VA unless you actually live in DC part-time. Most other places don't do that and there are different rules for different states and localities regarding non-resident and part-time resident taxes and some have special rules specifically regarding pro athletes.

Since the NHL pays on a per-game basis, residency is a 50-ish% part of tax burden calculations so it's a big deal, but the overall math is pretty complicated.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Vlad took a moment away from G20 to give Ovie a call to congratulate him on his wedding day.

It looked super Russian and had a ballet interlude, a Kovalchuk, and a Tarasenko.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


https://twitter.com/jacobscourant/status/884089476913528833

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


I gave up any grudge toward Jagr when he basically straight-up apologized for not living up to expectations in DC. It would be hilarious to bring him back here.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Replace the players' names with brands. "Gazprom has really rebounded this year after taking reduced minutes in 2016-17 and is on track for at least 40 goals once again!"

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


CBJSprague24 posted:

God drat. :stare:

Given this:

https://twitter.com/Aportzline/status/888370329252356097

...it's either something like that or he's going to try to go the crowdfunded route (which, to be fair, worked for NASCAR writer Jeff Gluck).

e- I think I found a spoiler (unless it was always there and just never caught it):

Note that he mentioned CBJ

https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/887396694307946496

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


ThinkTank posted:

The Athletic has been seriously aggressive with expansion and hiring some pretty prominent writers. Do they have some big corporate backer I'm unaware of, because there's no way they're profitable at the moment.

Yes, they have Silicon Valley venture capital backing.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Matt Cane's salary prediction algorithm has Dumoulin at $2,478,105 but it's pretty bad with players with only a couple years of history.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/890595143535013889

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


I very pointedly stopped giving the NHL/Caps money after the most recent lockout, but it would be really hard for me to stop being a fan of the team.

And by really hard I mean I'm still a Redskins fan.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


eXXon posted:

Yo what the gently caress happened to hockeyanalysis and puckalytics, where am I supposed to get my sweet WOWYs from now?

I pay for http://hockeyviz.com/ pretty pictures but most of it is free.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Koopa Kid posted:

Tulsky just hired datarink to work with him for the Canes so no more fun arcade-style shot graphics next year I guess.

Canes are building a sleeper here.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Technetium posted:

I stuck with Corsica and Puckalytics for awhile and haven't really checked out this site. Can you give me an example what the season summary and season skater cards look like? I can't find an example on the site itself.

Sure. I'm a fan so I'm happy to pimp his work for everybody here.

The Caps season summary for 2016-2017:



Here's a couple of those visualizations up close:




A game summary for May 8 vs the Pens:





And an individual player summary for that game, in this case Backstrom:



And since I'm sure everyone would demand it, a gallery of all of the visualizations for Tom Wilson's 2016-2017 season summary. The only one missing from his is 5v4 shot locations because I'm pretty sure the value for that is null.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


It's definitely not for everybody, but it's a lot of information and context very quickly. For example, I can look at the game summary matchup viz and get a good idea of which players were up against whom and which side got the better of it right away.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


I would bank that Ovie is gonna miss games either because he goes and plays somehow or as a protest. He's said so forever and Leonsis has backed him, though the league would probably step in to stop/punish owners doing that.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Every CBA negotiation for 25 years has resulted in either a strike or a lockout, because the NHL knows what it's doing.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Speaking of Malkin, did this get posted and I missed it?

https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/897655701010604032

I can't tell if this is self-deprecating or a burn on Ovie.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Gunjin posted:

You can never tell with Malamud, he has a huge hate boner for both Ovechkin and the Capitals, and has no problem taking quotes out of context to make things sound more negative towards them or to get attention for himself.

I had to stop following him a while ago because of that. I've lost touch with a friend of mine who did some Russian translation services for the Capitals back around 2003-2008 who would be able to give me some better insight into this sort of thing.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014



But... his KHL team was Traktor...

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


https://twitter.com/DanCriswell/status/900344603571834880


Just as I'd started to mentally put the Caps' summer behind me.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Mind_Taker posted:

Didn't you see? The Capitals have moved Braden Holtby to LW to replace Johansson. Pretty ingenious IMO.

Making the most of Grubauer before a deadline trade. Brilliant.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


I subbed The Athletic during the Caps' series against Toronto. If they did a DC branch I'd stay subbed for sure based on what I've seen and I'd recommend it for the other cities they cover. If you aren't a fan of the teams in one of their cities I'd probably pass, but I'm glad I'll get to see what they do this coming regular season before I decide. I am completely at peace with paying for good stuff these days since that's the way everything is headed; and they do have a lot of good stuff even if there still are plenty of good free outlets for now.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


stab posted:

gently caress i had seriously forgotten that one and seared it out of my brain



gently caress

To be fair, Alzner is a big upgrade on Emelin.

Still slow and overpaid, though.

glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


https://twitter.com/TarikCSN/status/902539525913792512

Skinny Ovie gonna to score 55 goals.

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glynnenstein
Feb 18, 2014


Kilza posted:

Well by that logic, since Abdelkader makes $4.25 mil AAV and Athanasiou is better than him, he really should be making $5+ mil AAV on his next contract.

This is why overpay contracts are worse than just the one guy's cap hit. When people like Tom Wilson have multi-million dollar contracts it creates a higher floor for negotiations with other players who might otherwise be comparing against replacement level contract numbers. When you have a whole team of bad contracts it becomes impossible to sign people for their actual value.

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