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exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

El Pollo Blanco posted:

Isn't this graph completely inaccurate? Labour were polling sub 25% from May, until August when Little stepped down?

it's labour + greens

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El Pollo Blanco
Jun 12, 2013

by sebmojo

exmarx posted:

it's labour + greens

lol i'm a moron

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.
bump, the election is nearly over!

the special votes are counted, and the results are final:


national has lost 2 seats from the preliminary result, and labour and the greens picked up one each. a p incredible 47% of people voted before election day, and turnout was up slightly at 79.8%.

now we wait for october 12, the date winston peters has set as a deadline for coalition agreements


media coverage has been loving interminable, and it's probably going to get worse

R. Mute
Jul 27, 2011

way to loving suck as well, my dudes.

so is this just going to be nats and nz first?

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.
that's been my assumption, yeah.

winston has been waiting for the specials to be counted before beginning negotiations. imo this is so he can get more concessions out of national, since they've now only got 2 more seats than labour+greens do. many of nz first's policy positions are actually fairly close to labour's (shamefully, lol) so there's not really a ton he can be seen to gain from them.

the only reason he might go with labour is that they'd be a new government – this would be national's fourth term, and they'd almost certainly lose in 2020.

also i made another graph

R. Mute
Jul 27, 2011

exmarx posted:

also i made another graph

this is p messed

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

R. Mute posted:

this is p messed

ya it's hosed up. immigration policy was my red line this election, it got so bad across the board a few months ago that i considered not voting at all. labour campaigned on cutting immigration by 30,000. at one point the greens' policy was to benchmark it at 1% of population (which would have been an effective cut of 40,000) – they later dropped that policy in shame after getting slammed by their members. nz first wants a cut of like 60,000, and probably concentration camps for chinese immigrants. act is a no-borders libertarian party, and as i mentioned earlier the nats have been bringing in lots of precarious labour for their farmer voting base.

in the past few years it's become a lot harder to gain residency – similar to what happened in the uk as described here:

quote:

Under New Labour the number of successfully granted asylum applications halved in the space of two years. In the same time period, the number of temporary work visas doubled – creating a precarious, hyper-exploitable, racialised working class. These workers are the “forgotten forgotten”: the most vulnerable amongst a working class that was never as white as we’d like to imagine it.

transport, housing and health infrastructure have been underinvested in for years, and we're now seeing the cracks – and migrants are getting blamed for everything. this happened before jacinda became leader:



i'm terrified at what concessions peters is going to be able to get. his 1996 coalition with national made it harder for refugees to claim asylum, and this was bill english in 2005:

quote:

Several years ago Ahmed Zaoui entered the country illegally. He should have been put on a plane immediately. Instead, after 3 years of litigation he has become a hero for the left. New Zealand is seen now as a soft touch for other fascists, terrorists, whoever is on the losing side in bad regimes, unwanted at home and unable to get into any other country.

Labour has turned our migration control into a joke. If you turn up at the border with an apple, you get done. If you turn up with an Iraqi passport and references from Saddam Hussein you get in. I have dealt with a constituent who was turned away at the UK border because they said they had a UK boyfriend they might marry. We need migrants, but we don't need leftovers from middle east terrorist regions.

gently caress!!!

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.
bump, we have a government now. the racist nationalist party chose a labour coalition! hooray!


exmarx posted:

:siren: official prediction :siren: : national/nz first government

it's good to be wrong some times :)

on the other hand, my model of government change in the anglosphere seems perfect?:

exmarx posted:

i've been mapping out anglophone governments for a couple of years, since i noticed the domination of tory parties everywhere. this insanely scientific analysis shows that nz is due for a change of government, following canada :viggo:

i should have trusted the data. i'm nate silver now.

break-up breakdown
Mar 6, 2010

this seems a little, unstable

Fallen Hamprince
Nov 12, 2016


rae and ambrose really shouldnt be counted as leaders, they were provisional leaders of their respective parties during leadership campaigns in which they did not run

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

Fallen Hamprince posted:

rae and ambrose really shouldnt be counted as leaders, they were provisional leaders of their respective parties during leadership campaigns in which they did not run

i included temporary leaders if they were in that role for more than a month; shut up hamprince

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

https://twitter.com/axmcc/status/921278218136567808

the reporter in question is named tiger, which is the most australian thing i've ever heard

Badger of Basra has issued a correction as of 00:58 on Oct 21, 2017

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

Badger of Basra posted:

https://twitter.com/axmcc/status/921278218136567808

the reporter in question is named tiger, which is the most australian thing i've ever heard

https://twitter.com/HelenClarkNZ/status/921449837643616257

Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010

Did you guys legalize:420: yet

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gucci bane
Oct 27, 2008



exmarx posted:

bump, we have a government now. the racist nationalist party chose a labour coalition! hooray!



it's good to be wrong some times :)

on the other hand, my model of government change in the anglosphere seems perfect?:


i should have trusted the data. i'm nate silver now.



Nelson didn't lose the election, this infograph is REVISIONIST TRASH

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