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Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
If someone could give me some feedback, that'd be a real nice Christmas present.

In one of my leagues where you pick one player out of five, we get to make a maximum of three trades before Christmas. I have been holding first place since the start of the season, and I have a sizeable lead (although one person has come close), so I don't have many deals to actually make. This is a league where goals are worth 2 points, PPG are 3, SHG are worth 4, and hat tricks gets you a bonus 3. To give you some context, Anders Lee is currently my second top pick with 65 points (21 goals x 2, 6 PPG x 1, 2 GWG x 1, and 15 assists x 1).

So, here are some of the deals I am thinking of making.

1. Trading Schwartz for Zetterberg
Schwartz is out for at least another 5 weeks, and could be out more, so I am getting nothing from him. Zetterberg doesn't score much anymore, but 1 points is better than the 0 Schwartz gets me. However, if Schwartz does come back in late-January/early-Feb, then he's probably going to do better than Zetterberg.

2. Trading Mason for Schneider
This is a definite trade. My thinking in the offseason was "Winnipeg may be good, so Mason will get wins!". I didn't realize he'd become the back-up in the first few games.

3. Trading Nylander for Schenn
Nylander hasn't been scoring, and the last month has been rough. I may just be selling low here, and Nylander will bounce back.

4. Trading Vatanen for Spurgeon
This will get me more points, but probably not as much as other deals could get me.

5. Trading Tarasenko for Ovechkin
This is the wild man deal, and while Ovie has more points currently, I am not willing to bet that he's gonna outscore Tarasenko for the rest of the season. If anything, they're gonna be too close to waste a trade.

6. Trading Draisaitl for Scheifele
They are pretty close in points for the last month. I am not really willing to give up on Draisaitl at this point, if only because his S% has been significantly lower than his career average.

7. Trading Pacioretty for Kessel
This is a definite trade, as well. This is kind of sad for me since Patches has been such a fantasy superstar for me, and I pick him every year. But, I have to go with the Thrill.

So, I am definitely going with 2 and 7, and leaning towards going with 3. If anyone could chime in, that'd be awesome!

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Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe
1. Your'e in first and I assume this is a league with playoffs? I'd hold onto Schwarz. You'll take a hit in the short term but by the playoffs you'll want the better scorer which Schwarz is.

2. Well I'd do it sure. Why is the other person doing it though? I'm kinda confused on that part. It's pretty lopsided in your favor.

3. Assuming this isn't a keeper league, I'd do it. Schenn is having a career year, and more importantly for you he's a good PPG producer.

4. This is a tricky one since the Devils don't have a glut of good dmen which means Vatanen could easily get a lot of PP time. Not sure what the breakdown is there since he got traded. Spurgeon is the better scorer right now though, so it's probably a fair bet to make this deal.

5. Seems like a bit of a sideways deal. Don't see a need for it.

6. Hmm. Tough one. Drai had more PPGs last year than Scheifele has ever had, but Scheifele is also on pace to have a career year in terms of PPGs. To be honest you could argue this one either way. Go with your gut here. If you think Drai is gonna rebound, hold onto him.

7. This is a no brainer imo. The Pens powerplay is the best in the league, and Kessel is the reason why. Not only that, but the Pens are actually getting extremely unlucky 5v5. It's possible - maybe even likely - that Kessel starts scoring a bit more at even strength as well.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
Sorry, I should have explained further. You just pick 1 player of 5 off of a sheet, so essentially, I am just trading with no one. I’m just shuffling my own picks. It’s not a keeper league or anything.

I can only make a max of 3 deals, and this is the only time of year to do them. Still, you did help, and I think we are thinking the same thoughts.

Arabian Jesus
Feb 15, 2008

We've got the American Jesus
Bolstering national faith

We've got the American Jesus
Overwhelming millions every day



:smith:

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
This is probably the craziest ending to a fantasy matchup I've ever had (this is from the LOL):

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Twin Cinema posted:

Still looking for an answer.

Speaking of being suspect of a player's huge year, am I the only one who is bearish on Kucherov? The Hockey News has him in the top-5 in scoring. Razzball's hockey section has him as the third ranked player in the league. I don't really even have a reason to be bearish, other than a gut feeling. He has always maintained a high S%, and he took way more shots last year, which allowed him to score 40. He's still young, and he's playing on a strong team. Is this jump from a 30-goal/65-point guy to a 40-goal/85-point one legit? He scored way more on the PP last year, and it seems like he's close to becoming one of the few 20-minute a game forwards. I wouldn't be as worried taking him later in the first round, but I am slightly scared of taking him in the top-5.

was thinking about this earlier: glad you ended up taking him but wow this post seems wild in retrospect haha.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

Jamwad Hilder posted:

was thinking about this earlier: glad you ended up taking him but wow this post seems wild in retrospect haha.

Haha yeah, I love looking at how wrong I was. I can't believe I had to be convinced to take the potential Art Ross winner.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
Jack Eichel's recent surge has been making my preseason prediction of him being a top-10 point getter less wrong. I picked him in nearly every league I was in.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
Because it's the All-Star Break, and I am bored, I wanted to see how bad I am at giving advice. I will ignore how wrong I was about Kucherov.

Twin Cinema posted:

I am starting to debate between keeping either Domi or Granlund. Granlund is $2, and Domi is $11. Am I right to be suspect of Granlund's huge year?

The only other big consideration is that this would be the last year I can keep Domi, whereas I picked Granlund off of waivers last year, so I have another few years with him.

I was not entirely sold on Granlund, but I kept him over Domi. I made the right move here.

Twin Cinema posted:

It depends on when you're advocating taking Malkin. Late-first/high-second is the spot you should take him, because he can't be depended a full season. A dude who averages 60-65 games, unless he's playing at the level of Gretzky/Lemieux should not be taken any higher.

Surprisingly, Malkin has had a pretty healthy season so far. He's been his usual great self. He's currently ranked 14th in my only Yahoo league. I wouldn't say I was right here, but I don't think I was wrong.

Twin Cinema posted:

So, in the pools where I pick one player out of a group, I picked Brent Burns in all 3 pools I am in. I had him and Karlsson pretty close, and figured Karlsson may miss a bit more time, so because of that, Burns would have more points at the end of the season. It's not hurting me that badly, but it feels like a mistake.


I realize this may be too late, but this is a pretty terrible trade. Kucherov has cemented himself as one of the best in the league, and while Ovechkin may fill out some of the other stat categories, a PPG+ player is pretty rare these days. Ovechkin is not the player he once was. He started off super hot, but I think his 33-goal output from last year is probably more likely to occur again than a 50-goal season.

Like others have said, Rask for Quick seems marginal, and you're pretty much paying for Quick's hot start with Rask's terrible one. I would not do this deal.

Two things here

- Turns out that taking Burns was the right move.

- My second response was about a proposed Kucherov/Rask for Ovechkin/Quick deal. I was pretty wrong about Ovechkin, but I'd still be hesitant to do this deal today. Rask and Quick have similar stat lines (Rask has a much better GAA, which pushes him above Quick), and I don't know, even with Ovechkin's extra stats, that I'd want to go from Kucherov to him. Personal preference, though.

Twin Cinema posted:

Now that I am on a laptop, I'll tell you why I don't like this deal. I will probably issue similar sentiments as Jamwad, but I'll try to be constructive.

I think having stats beyond points is important, but I think too many people get blinded by them and overlook points. Like, I think it's much easier to find someone who will fill up hits and blocks, rather than trying to replace a PPG player. This may be just a different philosophy when it comes to ranking players, but I stress this because I wouldn't want to part with Backstrom, far and away the best player in the deal, to try and gain other stats (okay, Holtby may be close to Backstrom, but I always try to wing it with goalies). He may have been struggling since his hot start, but this is a guy who has been hovering around being a PPG player his entire career. There's few other players as dependable as Backstrom. I am not sure why you'd want to get rid of him at this point, especially since your a Caps fan. Kadri is a great player, especially in fantasy, but I don't like losing the 15-20 points you'd get from Backstrom.

As for the other players, you're also taking a hit downgrading from Carlson to Phaneuf. Point has shown a lot, and Tampa, while they're on a huge hot streak, has an offense that I'd want players from. I am pretty low on Guentzel, but I can understand the interest. Honestly, I don't have much knowledge on Vrana to have an opinion. Hornqvist is kind of blah to me. As for the goalies, I can understand wanting to upgrade from Anderson to Holtby, but I am not sure if this deal does it for me.

If I were doing this deal, I'd try to make it smaller. I would remove Point and Guentzel, as well as Hornqvist and Vrana. I would then try and see if there's a player of less value than Backstrom to put in the deal. Like, someone on the next tier of players. Of course, this is mostly because I don't value goalies as highly as other people, so I really don't want to pay for Holtby at first- or second-round prices, because I'd rather take a high-scoring forward.

This was in response to a huge deal of Guentzel/Point/Backstrom/Carlson/Franderson for Kadri/Hornqvsst/Vrana/Phaneuf/Holtby. Based on my league's rankings, this is where each player ranks.

35. Point
47. Carlson
51. Hornqvist
72. Kadri
75. Backstrom
102. Andersen
166. Guentzel
201. Holtby
209. Phaneuf
499. Vrana

As you can see, this would have been an incredibly bad deal. I do think that my advice of reworking the deal was spot on, because I think this deal would be better if you remove those 4 players (they would have had to drop Vrana by this point), but only if they included someone on the next tier below Backstrom. As of right now, they'd be losing a lot on going from Carlson to Phaneuf and Andersen to Holtby, only to be about equal on Kadri and Backstrom (although that depends on your need).

Twin Cinema posted:

Tkachuk is a nice player to have. I don’t think you’re too high on him. But I wouldn’t have dropped him, although this depends on the way your league is set-up. If it’s, like, an 8-team league with only a few open slots, then maybe you have a case.

Tkachuk has been on a recent hot streak. He should be owned in every league, I think.

------

Going into this, I thought I had been giving a lot worse advice than I actually did. Thanks for reading a post that only fuels my ego.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Goaltending is gonna fuckin sink me in HHL despite having 2/3 of the best line in the NHL and maybe the best forward group in the pool.

Jamwad Hilder fucked around with this message at 08:08 on Jan 28, 2018

SouthShoreSamurai
Apr 28, 2009

It is a tale,
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.


Fun Shoe
Need some goon advice:

I have Luongo coming off of IR. Who would you drop?

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
I'd just drop luongo

genki
Nov 12, 2003
Assuming you need the goaltending stats, Maroon. Otherwise yeah, Luongo. The risk with dropping Maroon is if he goes to a contender and suddenly starts lighting it up. Unlikely, but not impossible.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe
Yeah just drop Lu. Your goaltending is great. You don't need him.

SouthShoreSamurai
Apr 28, 2009

It is a tale,
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.


Fun Shoe
Ok, thanks all.

What are your thoughts on Corey Perry? I don't get to see him play much.

Cocaine Bear
Nov 4, 2011

ACAB

SouthShoreSamurai posted:

Ok, thanks all.

What are your thoughts on Corey Perry? I don't get to see him play much.

I don't think anyone in SAS has strong feelings one way or another about FCP.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
He's having a bad year and also gently caress him

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Anyone selling the farm in HHL? I don't think my team is really good enough to win this year but I should probably go for it anyway. I finally dropped Domi, even my patience has limits.

genki
Nov 12, 2003

T-Bone posted:

Anyone selling the farm in HHL? I don't think my team is really good enough to win this year but I should probably go for it anyway. I finally dropped Domi, even my patience has limits.
I could but I just noticed I'm in a decent position to move into sixth finally, but there are only two weeks left so my chances are slim. Ugh.

edit: also just noticed I have the most moves in the league :toot:

fancy stats
Sep 9, 2009

A man's man, wears a lot of denim, tells long stories and has oatmeal saved from this morning.

genki posted:

I could but I just noticed I'm in a decent position to move into sixth finally, but there are only two weeks left so my chances are slim. Ugh.

Oh poo poo, really? Goddamn it. My team has started to pick up some momentum, but just way, way too late.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

T-Bone posted:

Anyone selling the farm in HHL? I don't think my team is really good enough to win this year but I should probably go for it anyway. I finally dropped Domi, even my patience has limits.

I am in the same boat as you. My team, one in first, has slid to fifth because I have lost 4 weeks in a row. I have no idea what to actually expect from my team in the playoffs.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Yeah I'm currently in 6th and have no idea if I want to try to make a move to fix my goaltending. I have the pieces to make it happen, but I think I might just ride out the rest of the season with this group and see if team "Win all Forward Categories" can pull this off.

Edit: actually maybe it's Team Faceoff Winners. I'm 18-0-0 in that stat this year.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
I am glad my friend doesn't listen to me. In the HHL, he wanted to keep Rakell, and I was against it. My thought was that his S% is obviously going to regress, and he's probably more like the 20ish goal/40-point guy we saw in 15-16. I did not forsee him taking on an even bigger role in Anaheim, and improving on his assist totals, while also taking more shots to make up for the drop in S%. I guess that's the fun thing with young players (and fantasy, in general) -- you never truly know.

Jamwad Hilder posted:

Yeah I'm currently in 6th and have no idea if I want to try to make a move to fix my goaltending. I have the pieces to make it happen, but I think I might just ride out the rest of the season with this group and see if team "Win all Forward Categories" can pull this off.

Edit: actually maybe it's Team Faceoff Winners. I'm 18-0-0 in that stat this year.

How is 18-0 even possible?? You'd think you are bound to lose one, even two, despite having all of the centers.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Twin Cinema posted:

How is 18-0 even possible?? You'd think you are bound to lose one, even two, despite having all of the centers.

Bergeron and O'Reilly, basically. The scores are pretty wild, here's the last few weeks for example:
Week 18: 167-64 (Bergeron and O'Reilly combined for 74)
Week 17: 242-148 (Bergeron and O'Reilly combined for 116)
Week 16: 308-151 (Bergeron and O'Reilly had 137)
Week 15: 180-46 (yikes - Bergeron alone had 54)

Then add in Schenn, Larkin, Zibanejad, Larkin, and Barzal. Actually, almost all of my forwards have 60+ wins (even wingers like Schmaltz/Gourde/Guentzel) except for Pastrnak and Neal.

Jamwad Hilder fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Feb 20, 2018

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe
I'm somehow 3rd in the HHL. If someone is selling and wants to offer me a big piece I'd be open to offers. I have Debrincat who I might be willing to move if someone has a star player they don't want moving forward. It'd have to be a legit star player though because he's putting up huge numbers and could be a good keeper moving forward. But for the right player I might move him.

mentholmoose
Nov 5, 2009

YKNOW THERES ONLY ONE DIRECTION I KNOW AND THATS DRIVIN STRAIGHT TO THE NET
I should probably actually start paying attention to fantasy hockey again.

Though months of barely paying any attention at all means that I don't have much to pay attention to.

I guess I might be willing to sell in HHL, there's no way I'm getting back to a playoff spot from tenth at this point. I guess Malkin could be available there.

fancy stats
Sep 9, 2009

A man's man, wears a lot of denim, tells long stories and has oatmeal saved from this morning.

Thank god I didn't end up getting a chance to try to go all in before the trade deadline. I thought I'd for sure be closer to 6th after last week.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
Nice to be right on Barkov this year.

fancy stats
Sep 9, 2009

A man's man, wears a lot of denim, tells long stories and has oatmeal saved from this morning.

Goddamn tiebreakers.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
my team blew it in the last week and dropped from 5 to 8, and I think I'm probably going to quit HHL over it.

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.

Jamwad Hilder posted:

my team blew it in the last week and dropped from 5 to 8, and I think I'm probably going to quit HHL over it.

I somehow made the playoffs despite going 1-5 in my last 6 match-ups.

I still roster Lucic because of his hits. I am not a good manager.

fancy stats
Sep 9, 2009

A man's man, wears a lot of denim, tells long stories and has oatmeal saved from this morning.

Jamwad Hilder posted:

my team blew it in the last week and dropped from 5 to 8, and I think I'm probably going to quit HHL over it.

I thought I was going to sneak in just ahead of you, but forgot that Genki's opponent has two goalies on the IR. I was so close!

My six matchup wins in the last six weeks were more than I had won in the 14 weeks preceding them.

Not great.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Finished 1st in the LSL, 2nd in the HHL, and am currently in 4th in the LOL but all teams are smoke and mirrors and fortunate matchups and will not win poo poo

mentholmoose
Nov 5, 2009

YKNOW THERES ONLY ONE DIRECTION I KNOW AND THATS DRIVIN STRAIGHT TO THE NET
10th in LSL, 9th in HHL, and 5th right now in LOL even though I barely ever remembered to set my lineups this year. Maybe next season I'll actually remember to check things.

e: Also I offered Malkin in the thread then also completely forgot to check for offers. Sorry dudes if you offered something!

mentholmoose fucked around with this message at 21:22 on Mar 5, 2018

Yaya
Nov 14, 2012

vancloober cablucks
Carey Price has betrayed me for the last time

genki
Nov 12, 2003
It's a christmas miracle! In March. Also I'm probably not going to advance too far but I'm pretty pleased that I managed to crawl back into the playoff race. Well and I was gifted a win in the last week for max points.

toe knee hand
Jun 20, 2012

HANSEN ON A BREAKAWAY

HONEY BADGER DON'T SCORE
Well HHL certainly isn't a runaway this year. I'm first going into the playoffs with only Trocheck and Couturier having good years. And my first 5 or so picks were auto because I forgot about the draft...

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
im not quitting HHL only because I got Barzal on waivers and I have one more year of Pastrnak as a keeper, but if you guys don't let me win next year i'm going to be pissed!

Technetium
Oct 26, 2006

TRILOBITE TECHNICIAN
QUITE POSSIBLY GAY

Congratulations Factory of Saadness winning the matchup because of Patrick Kane.

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Gobias Ind.
Apr 5, 2007

If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

Technetium posted:

Congratulations Factory of Saadness winning the matchup because of Patrick Kane.

Also Brandon Sutter stealing FW for me :sweatdrop:

Crazy close matchup.

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