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This OP will have many tables and images and facts very soon, it's partially ready in another tab. Axeil was itching to get it up and running, so here's a statistical sandbox open to all playoff race discussion, as well as haikus adulating Chip Kelly.
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Dec 4, 2017 06:40
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And I will be posting lots of stats and probabilities and what not in this second post Thanks kalensc for letting me help out! Let's Talk Probabilities As I'm sure you all know there are a number of sites out there that compute the probability of a team achieving a result. Let's take a look in aggregate at both the NFC to start. For this analysis we will be looking at 538's ELO-based model, the NYTimes' Upshot playoff simulator, Football Outsiders DVOA and PlayoffStatus.com which uses a methodology that's never disclosed anywhere. As 538, NYTimes and PlayoffStatus.com allow you to do conditional probabilities, we'll look at certain "interesting" scenarios. If people are interested I can also talk about how each system works (except of course for PlayoffStatus.com which is a black box) The color shading works on a spectrum with 100% chance being pure green and 0% chance being pure red. I will not do analysis for any team or any situation where any of the projection systems has them below 1%. NFC  Analysis As you can see, the Vikings are in extremely good shape for a bye, possibly even the #1 seed This is thanks to their extremely strong tiebreaker situation, with Philly's chance for a common opponents victory the only real chance to unseat them if they tie someone at the end of the season. The sites are also generally in agreement. Of note, the Vikings remain in excellent shape for a bye, even with a loss this week although their chances for the #1 seed become fairly precarious.  Analysis Philly was in the driver's seat but thanks to Seattle chaos now reigns atop the NFC. Eagles fans can take heart though, as they still remain in excellent shape for at least a bye. And amusingly enough, are more favored for the #1 seed by the NYTimes model than the Vikings are. However, a loss to the Rams this week would pretty much end their chance for the top spot in the conference as they would need to leapfrog both the Vikings and Rams with only 3 games to go. Interestingly, the NYTimes seems far more bullish than the other sites on Philly's bye chances and they have the highest playoff likelihood out of any team on FO at 99.96%  Analysis An early season loss to the Vikings, back before anyone knew Case Keenum was for real has come back to haunt Saints fans. That, combined with their loss to the Rams have made a bye, much less the #1 seed a fool's hope at this point. But even a fool's hope is a hope. With the Eagles and Rams playing each other, the Saints hope of a bye rests on the winner of that game stumbling down the block or Case Keenum turning back into a pumpkin. With a win on Thursday the Saints can shut the door on the Falcons, and force the Panthers to make up effectively 2 games with only 3 to play. A loss however will open the door for both the Panthers and Falcons. Probably the most important single game this week. FootballOutsiders sees the Saints as much stronger divisional candidates than any other site, but funny enough it doesn't translate into a meaningful odds increase for the top 2 seeds.  Analysis The game against Philly couldn't be any more huge for Los Angeles. Not only is it the first ever Goff vs Wentz battle, but it will have major repercussions for the playoff race. Win and the Rams are all but guaranteed to be resting up on Wild Card weekend as they'll have head-to-head wins over both the Saints and Eagles. If they lose though? Well, now they're on the wrong side of both the Eagles and Vikings head-to-head tiebreaker and would need a miracle to get a bye and risk losing their divisional lead if Seattle can handle Jacksonville. Second most important game this week. Interestingly, PlayoffStatus.com still gives the Rams better than even odds to win the NFC West with a loss this week.  Analysis Welcome to Wild Card Land! After a dominant performance against the Eagles the Seahawks have fought their way back into the playoff picture. Even better for Seattle, they own a direct head-to-head tiebreaker over the Falcons who are a game back. Unlike the other teams, where I focused on their Week 14 matchups, I turned my eye towards Seattle's Week 15 game against the Rams. A loss would end their hopes of playing at home in the playoffs, barring a miracle, but a win and a Rams loss in Week 14 (probability not noted here) would pretty much wrap up the division.  Analysis The Panthers are hoping for the Falcons to beat the Saints on Thursday night, but watch out! A combined Panthers loss and Falcons win would put their playoff lives in jeopardy, dropping their odds an astonishing 20-25 percentage points. Given the round-robin nature of the NFC South and all 3 teams' strong records the rooting interests can become very complicated. Right now the Saints are 3-0 in the division but have yet to play Atlanta. The Panthers are 1 game back and have already lost a game to the Saints, forcing their hopes to rest on conference record. Normally, the Panthers would hope for the Saints to lose all remaining divisional games but paradoxically, the Panthers are in deep trouble if the Saints do too badly against the Falcons. If the Falcons win both games, they, and not the Panthers, will be the likely NFC South winners. But if the Panthers think they can beat the Falcons in Week 17 and think the Falcons will lose to the Buccaneers then they do want the Saints to lose both games. The NFC South makes my head hurt.  Analysis It's do or die time in Atlanta. A loss this week eliminates them from the divisional chase and makes the NFC South far less complicated. A win and things become very interesting. The scheduling gods really hate Atlanta this year, so despite it being Week 14, the Falcons have only played 2 divisional games. Yes, that's right, the Falcons face a stunning FOUR divisional games in a row to end the year, including the Saints in (nearly) back-to-back weeks. I've never seen anything like this. The good news is, because of this Atlanta still largely controls its own fate in the South. Win these 4 divisional games and Atlanta will be hosting a Wild Card match.  Analysis Due to earlier losses to both the Falcons and Panthers every single person in Detroit are now huge Saints fans, in the hopes they can give Detroit the help they need to get back into the hunt. Without that help their season is done. Obviously, they must win out as 9-7 probably won't cut it in the NFC this season.  The rest of the NFC will be mailing Tampa Bay coal for Christmas this year. A loss to the Buccs would've ended the Packers hopes. Now only a game against the lowly Browns stands in the way of Aaron Rodgers' return and a potential playoff spot.  Analysis The Cowboys are not making the playoffs. AFC The AFC is actually a lot easier to talk about. Well at least until you get to tẖ̹̦̹ḛ̹͉̤̩̖͞ ҉A̛̮̻̯̜F͉̫̣C̳̖̤̤ ̥̜̹̳͇̱W̳̼̦̞̠͉̳͢è̻̝̥̺̘̦̻s͙̠t̯̬̘͜ ͘a̡n̳͍̼͖̪̼ͅd́ ̬̖̰͕̳̙́ͅ6͕̫̰͎͡ͅt̠̼͓̘̥h̬̱͠ ̦S̤̦̙̺͙̗͚e̮e̴̳͎͙̟͇̠d̼  Analysis Congratulations Pittsburgh on yet another AFC North title. Barring an absolutely improbable collapse the Steelers will be one of our 4 divisional champions out of the AFC. But at this point, no one is focusing on that, or even on the hunt for a bye (which is also all but guaranteed). No, instead the fine folks in Western PA are laser-focused on a date with the Patriots in 2 weeks. The winner will almost assuredly be the #1 seed, while the loser will have to fend off Jacksonville for the 2 spot.  Analysis Wow. The Pats won a division. Who could've foreseen this  . Just like Pittsburgh, all eyes are on the #1 seed. Not much else to talk about. Interestingly their probability is quite a bit lower than Pittsburgh on PlayoffStatus and FO but higher on NYTimes. Modeling differences! Hooray! Analysis Poor Titans. They're currently leading their division but only seem to be slight favorites to keep it. In part that's because FO's DVOA is really not impressed with Tennesee and due to Jacksonville's tied record, it's very hard to not make the Week 17 game the only one that really matters. Unfortunately an earlier loss to Pittsburgh puts pretty much all hopes of a bye out of reach and a poor 7-4 conference record dooms them against the Patriots' 2 game lead and 7-1 record in the AFC.  Analysis Jesus Christ Chiefs  . One minute y'all are 5-0 and in talks to be the best team in the NFL, the next you are barely holding on to a division lead. At the end of Week 8 the Chiefs had a commanding 3 game lead with the rest of the AFC West looking done for. They're now in a fight for their playoff lives. Make no mistake, losing to Oakland would be absolutely catastrophic, dropping their playoff chances from around 60% to under 1-in-4. Conversely, winning this week's match-up with the Raiders would put away one of their divisional rivals and perhaps restore some confidence. Analysis The other half of the AFC South duo, Jacksonville is in a much happier place than the Titans thanks to a Week 5 win over Pittsburgh. That win is driving all of their higher than expected chance of a bye and even the #1 seed for the current Wild Card team. While their game this week against the Seahawks should be a good one, it will have almost no impact on their playoff position. That's what happens when you have a cross-conference game though.  Analysis W̴͔̹̫eḽ̼͓c̨͕͖͉̹̖͉̣om͜e̟̻̣͔͓͢ ̴̹̯͉͕̯͉̪T̝̼͎̥͎̲̞͝ǫ̳͇͈̫̯̙ ̵̲̮͎T͏͓̯̘̖̙̙h̝͚̯̻e̴ ̰6͍t͙̜̟̹͖̯ḫ̹͚̹͍͟ ̙̩̦͔̱Ș̘̖̟͔̖̬e̻ed̘̖̬̮̻. I'm going to be blunt here, all the teams from here on out have major, major flaws and are probably 1-and-done in the playoffs. That said, each conference gets 6 spots so we have to figure out who gets this last one. The Ravens claim to the last spot is their stifling defense. A win this week would help them prevent Pittsburgh from clinching the division, but win or lose it doesn't have much impact on their chances.  Analysis Raise your hand if you thought the Chargers would be in the mix in December? Yeah, I didn't think so either. But thanks to the Chiefs turning into a pumpkin and the general...whatever the hell is going on for the 6th seed, the Chargers are very much alive. With a game against both the Chiefs and Raiders left on the schedule, the Chargers can punch their own ticket if they keep up with whoever wins this week's Chiefs/Raiders game. And the last seed isn't out of grasp either. Thanks to The Nathan Peterman Game the Chargers have a crucial tiebreaker over the Bills.  Analysis THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T BENCH AN OKAY QUARTERBACK FOR NATHAN loving PETERMAN. If Sean McDermott wasn't an idiot the Bills may have won the game against the Chargers and they would be at 7-5 and the 6th seed instead of the Ravens. Instead, the Bills have decided to try doing things the hard way. A very poor conference record (4-4) means the Bills are going to need all the luck they can get.  Analysis The Raiders have a very small chance of getting the 6th seed but it's almost impossible because it requires them to both 1) lose games in the division, denying them the division crown; 2) win all their other games; 3) have the Ravens and Bills refuse to win games. While 1) and 3) seems likely, 2) seems very unlikely in combo with the others. Thus, the Raiders only real chance is the division. This week's game against KC might as well be an elimination game for that reason. axeil fucked around with this message at 05:01 on Dec 6, 2017 |
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Dec 4, 2017 06:41
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i need to post quick before the cardinals are mathematically eliminated
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Dec 4, 2017 06:55
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Subscribing for this goodness 
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Dec 5, 2017 13:14
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The Chiefs may stumble backwards into the playoffs but they are bad. Here's the current machine https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/NFL?L=EzCMLdOlT8GLJe9nIejaMXVPOPFIxNKVciM7WAok3C2W-Up01FauABn4GChwkaLHiJ-IA
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Dec 5, 2017 14:27
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the Denver Broncos, who are 3-9 and currently the 15th seed in the AFC, are still in the playoff hunt the Broncos are simultaneously in the playoff hunt and in possession of the 4th pick in the draft AFC bad
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Dec 5, 2017 14:44
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I just want the Saints to get a bye somehow. Rooting for Carolina this week.
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Dec 5, 2017 15:05
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Silly Burrito posted:I just want the Saints to get a bye somehow. Rooting for Carolina this week. We are all Panthers fans this week.
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Dec 5, 2017 15:22
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No Butt Stuff posted:The Chiefs may stumble backwards into the playoffs but they are bad. Don't use the playoff machine, it doesn't resolve ties correctly. Use this instead: https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/NFL?L=EzCMLdOlT8GLJe9nIejaMXVPOPFIxNKVciM7WAok3C2W-Up091FRpBmiuU74m0TsNQAGaZKA edit: Whoops, thought you had the ESPN playoff machine linked. That one is good, don't use the ESPN one unless you want it to look pretty. axeil fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Dec 5, 2017 |
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Dec 5, 2017 15:34
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Silly Burrito posted:I just want the Saints to get a bye somehow. Rooting for Carolina this week. Agreed. I'll take homefield somehow too but I don't want to be too greedy.
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Dec 5, 2017 15:40
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I'm like Oprah handing out 13-3s 
aBagorn fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Dec 5, 2017 |
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Dec 5, 2017 15:43
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aBagorn posted:I'm like Oprah handing out 13-3s How did the Saints win the tiebreaker after losing the head to heads? Just because they were all multi way breaks?
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Dec 5, 2017 15:48
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ulmont posted:How did the Saints win the tiebreaker after losing the head to heads? Just because they were all multi way breaks? I'm actually not sure e: looks like they are saying Strength of Victory. aBagorn fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Dec 5, 2017 |
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Dec 5, 2017 15:53
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Realistically the only scenario I could get the Rams out of the playoffs at this point was them losing 3 out of the next 4 and the Falcons winning out.
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Dec 5, 2017 15:55
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So one of the things I'm planning on doing is generating some percentages and "interesting" scenarios and walking through things. I will be taking audience requests, so if there's something you'd like to see, let me know! Right now I'm planning on doing an analysis of the mess at the top of the NFC and a look at the Bills chances for a Wild Card because both are interesting to me. I also will be doing a probability comparison between a few sites that do playoff projections.
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Dec 5, 2017 17:55
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axeil posted:So one of the things I'm planning on doing is generating some percentages and "interesting" scenarios and walking through things. what happens if every single game the rest of the year is a tie
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Dec 5, 2017 18:56
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XxGirlKisserxX posted:what happens if every single game the rest of the year is a tie Ohio State and Alabama get the AFC Wildcard slots.
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Dec 5, 2017 19:01
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Kalli posted:Ohio State and Alabama get the AFC Wildcard slots. Fair enough, because they'd run right through the weak fraud NFC
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Dec 5, 2017 19:01
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XxGirlKisserxX posted:what happens if every single game the rest of the year is a tie Pretty simple actually. Everyone stays where they are now, although seeding is nutty. Here ya go: https://playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/?L=EzCMLdOlT8GLJe9nIejaMXVPOPFIxNKVciM7WAok3C2W-Up01FauAZn4GChwkaNEAGMVPEzxQA#TEN NFC Eagles (10-2-4) (Wins common games tiebreaker [CHI, WAS, LA, CAR], 4-0-1 to 3-0-2) Vikings (10-2-4) Rams (9-3-4) (h2h over Saints) Saints (9-3-4) Seahawks (8-4-4) (6-3-3 conference versus 4-4-4 for the Falcons) Falcons (8-4-4) AFC Steelers (10-2-4) (Wins SoV over Pats .475 to .469) Patriots (10-2-4) Titans (8-4-4) (h2h over Jaguars) Chiefs (6-6-4) Jaguars (8-4-4) Ravens (7-5-4) edit: With the Patriots if everyone except the Dolphins tie all their games they can get the #1 seed by Strength of Schedule. I've yet to figure out what sorcery you need to get beyond SoS. edit2: The Eagles win on Common Games also hints at why their position is so weak for the top seed. If Minnesota beats Carolina their only hope of the #1 seed assuming the teams are tied in record in Week 17 would be the Vikings dropping their finale to the Bears. Otherwise they will tie in common opponents and the tie goes to SoV where the Vikings have a pretty much insurmountable lead, .467 to .375 axeil fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Dec 5, 2017 |
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Dec 5, 2017 19:35
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axeil posted:So one of the things I'm planning on doing is generating some percentages and "interesting" scenarios and walking through things. Can you get 3 AFC West teams into the playoffs
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Dec 5, 2017 23:12
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 This one is called "NFC WEST SUPREMACY" https://playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/?L=EzCMLdOlT8GLJe9nIejaMXVPOPFIxNKVciM7WAok3C2W-Up01FanM+paM370sDYAAZJUyRXFRpQA DariusLikewise fucked around with this message at 23:26 on Dec 5, 2017 |
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Dec 5, 2017 23:19
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axeil posted:So one of the things I'm planning on doing is generating some percentages and "interesting" scenarios and walking through things. How do the Saints get home field throughout the playoffs?
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Dec 5, 2017 23:25
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Silly Burrito posted:How do the Saints get home field throughout the playoffs? Saints have to win out, Vikings have to drop 2 of Panthers / Bengals / Packers / Bears (so lol), Eagles have to lose 1 if it's to say the Rams, Rams have to lose 2 of Eagles / Seahawks / Titans / Niners.
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Dec 6, 2017 00:01
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Silly Burrito posted:How do the Saints get home field throughout the playoffs? It's tough, but doable. It's trivially easy to figure this out if the Saints win 2 more games than Philly/Min as they'll be alone in first so I'll ignore that one. The tie is, as always, more interesting. And there are a lot of permutations. Anywhere I note SoV, with the exception of anything involving Philly (as they have played a lot of lovely teams and will almost always lose a SoV tiebreak) it is fairly easy to swap teams around and can't really be predicted due to how many games are involved in predicting SoV I'm also assuming the Saints win out unless the scenario can only be made with them losing games. Two-Way Tie with Philly Saints likely take it on SoV Two-Way Tie with Minnesota Minnesota gets it by virtue of their h2h win Two-Way Tie with LA LA takes it by h2h Two-Way Tie with Seattle (requires Minnesota and Philly to go 1-3 and the Rams going 2-2 with one of the wins against Philly AND the Saints have to lose a game somewhere)) Saints take it either on conference record or common opponents record (Seahawks at best 2-3, Saints at worst 3-2 while going 12-4) Three-Way Tie with Philly, Minn and NO If Philly Beats LA: Philly (Common Opponents) Minnesota (h2h) New Orleans If Philly Loses to LA New Orleans (SoV) Minnesota (SoV) Eagles Three-Way Tie with Philly, LA and NO (Impossible unless LA beats Philly) LA (h2h) New Orleans (SoV) Philly Three-Way Tie with Philly, NO and Seattle New Orleans (SoV) Seattle (h2h) Philly Of course, here's the real fun one Four-Way Tie (PHI, LA, MIN, NO) Vikings Beat Panthers Minnesota (common opponents) Rams (h2h) Saints (SoV) Philly Vikings Lose To Panthers New Orleans (SoV) Minnesota (SoV) Rams (h2) Philly Four-Way Tie (PHI, SEA, MIN, NO) It entirely depends on which games are won/lost by each team, and requires the Saints to lose a game somewhere. I tried charting it out and it gets very complicated, very fast. You would want everyone not named New Orleans to lose conference games and pray the Saints only loss was the game against the Jets. drat, that was a lot longer than I thought it would be. axeil fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Dec 6, 2017 |
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Dec 6, 2017 00:09
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ulmont posted:Saints have to win out, axeil posted:It's tough, but doable. So you're saying there's a chance....  drat, thanks for putting in all the effort for that one! Here's hoping it happens!
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Dec 6, 2017 00:24
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Someone post a breakdown of the afc west going forward in two sentences or less please
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Dec 6, 2017 00:51
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a neat cape posted:Someone post a breakdown of the afc west going forward in two sentences or less please They all bad, but Chargers playing least bad right now. This is probably good for them.
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Dec 6, 2017 00:55
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a neat cape posted:Someone post a breakdown of the afc west going forward in two sentences or less please 3 Teams tied at 6-6 in a round-robin with 2 extra games. Win out and you're in. edit: The most crucial bit is winning your 2 games against the other 6-6 teams. axeil fucked around with this message at 01:03 on Dec 6, 2017 |
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Dec 6, 2017 01:00
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a neat cape posted:Someone post a breakdown of the afc west going forward in two sentences or less please https://youtu.be/KcIfDp-S72M
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Dec 6, 2017 01:02
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I hope the Chargers win the division because we need to see a playoff game in that lovely soccer stadium 70% full of the other team's fans
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Dec 6, 2017 01:10
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Axeil, I know you've already figured this one out. What has to happen for Philly to miss the playoffs?
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Dec 6, 2017 01:26
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The AFC is an embarrassment to the league and Goodall should dissolve it.
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Dec 6, 2017 01:32
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Benne posted:I hope the Chargers win the division because we need to see a playoff game in that lovely soccer stadium 70% full of the other team's fans Yeah
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Dec 6, 2017 02:57
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Jags over titans 
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Dec 6, 2017 03:17
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Let's Talk Probabilities As I'm sure you all know there are a number of sites out there that compute the probability of a team achieving a result. Let's take a look in aggregate at all of them, starting with the NFC. For this analysis we will be looking at 538's ELO-based model, the NYTimes' Upshot playoff simulator, Football Outsiders DVOA and PlayoffStatus.com which uses a methodology that's never disclosed anywhere. As 538, NYTimes and PlayoffStatus.com allow you to do conditional probabilities, we'll look at certain "interesting" scenarios. If people are interested I can also talk about how each system works (except of course for PlayoffStatus.com which is a black box) The color shading works on a spectrum with 100% chance being pure green and 0% chance being pure red. I will not do analysis for any team or any situation where any of the projection systems has them below 1%. NFC Analysis As you can see, the Vikings are in extremely good shape for a bye, possibly even the #1 seed This is thanks to their extremely strong tiebreaker situation, with Philly's chance for a common opponents victory the only real chance to unseat them if they tie someone at the end of the season. The sites are also generally in agreement. Of note, the Vikings remain in excellent shape for a bye, even with a loss this week although their chances for the #1 seed become fairly precarious. Analysis Philly was in the driver's seat but thanks to Seattle chaos now reigns atop the NFC. Eagles fans can take heart though, as they still remain in excellent shape for at least a bye. And amusingly enough, are more favored for the #1 seed by the NYTimes model than the Vikings are. However, a loss to the Rams this week would pretty much end their chance for the top spot in the conference as they would need to leapfrog both the Vikings and Rams with only 3 games to go. Interestingly, the NYTimes seems far more bullish than the other sites on Philly's bye chances and they have the highest playoff likelihood out of any team on FO at 99.96% Analysis An early season loss to the Vikings, back before anyone knew Case Keenum was for real has come back to haunt Saints fans. That, combined with their loss to the Rams have made a bye, much less the #1 seed a fool's hope at this point. But even a fool's hope is a hope. With the Eagles and Rams playing each other, the Saints hope of a bye rests on the winner of that game stumbling down the block or Case Keenum turning back into a pumpkin. With a win on Thursday the Saints can shut the door on the Falcons, and force the Panthers to make up effectively 2 games with only 3 to play. A loss however will open the door for both the Panthers and Falcons. Probably the most important single game this week. FootballOutsiders sees the Saints as much stronger divisional candidates than any other site, but funny enough it doesn't translate into a meaningful odds increase for the top 2 seeds. Analysis The game against Philly couldn't be any more huge for Los Angeles. Not only is it the first ever Goff vs Wentz battle, but it will have major repercussions for the playoff race. Win and the Rams are all but guaranteed to be resting up on Wild Card weekend as they'll have head-to-head wins over both the Saints and Eagles. If they lose though? Well, now they're on the wrong side of both the Eagles and Vikings head-to-head tiebreaker and would need a miracle to get a bye and risk losing their divisional lead if Seattle can handle Jacksonville. Second most important game this week. Interestingly, PlayoffStatus.com still gives the Rams better than even odds to win the NFC West with a loss this week. Analysis Welcome to Wild Card Land! After a dominant performance against the Eagles the Seahawks have fought their way back into the playoff picture. Even better for Seattle, they own a direct head-to-head tiebreaker over the Falcons who are a game back. Unlike the other teams, where I focused on their Week 14 matchups, I turned my eye towards Seattle's Week 15 game against the Rams. A loss would end their hopes of playing at home in the playoffs, barring a miracle, but a win and a Rams loss in Week 14 (probability not noted here) would pretty much wrap up the division. Analysis The Panthers are hoping for the Falcons to beat the Saints on Thursday night, but watch out! A combined Panthers loss and Falcons win would put their playoff lives in jeopardy, dropping their odds an astonishing 20-25 percentage points. Given the round-robin nature of the NFC South and all 3 teams' strong records the rooting interests can become very complicated. Right now the Saints are 3-0 in the division but have yet to play Atlanta. The Panthers are 1 game back and have already lost a game to the Saints, forcing their hopes to rest on conference record. Normally, the Panthers would hope for the Saints to lose all remaining divisional games but paradoxically, the Panthers are in deep trouble if the Saints do too badly against the Falcons. If the Falcons win both games, they, and not the Panthers, will be the likely NFC South winners. But if the Panthers think they can beat the Falcons in Week 17 and think the Falcons will lose to the Buccaneers then they do want the Saints to lose both games. The NFC South makes my head hurt. Analysis It's do or die time in Atlanta. A loss this week eliminates them from the divisional chase and makes the NFC South far less complicated. A win and things become very interesting. The scheduling gods really hate Atlanta this year, so despite it being Week 14, the Falcons have only played 2 divisional games. Yes, that's right, the Falcons face a stunning FOUR divisional games in a row to end the year, including the Saints in (nearly) back-to-back weeks. I've never seen anything like this. The good news is, because of this Atlanta still largely controls its own fate in the South. Win these 4 divisional games and Atlanta will be hosting a Wild Card match. Analysis Due to earlier losses to both the Falcons and Panthers every single person in Detroit are now huge Saints fans, in the hopes they can give Detroit the help they need to get back into the hunt. Without that help their season is done. Obviously, they must win out as 9-7 probably won't cut it in the NFC this season. The rest of the NFC will be mailing Tampa Bay coal for Christmas this year. A loss to the Buccs would've ended the Packers hopes. Now only a game against the lowly Browns stands in the way of Aaron Rodgers' return and a potential playoff spot. Analysis The Cowboys are not making the playoffs. axeil fucked around with this message at 05:04 on Dec 6, 2017 |
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Dec 6, 2017 03:31
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a new study bible! posted:Axeil, I know you've already figured this one out. What has to happen for Philly to miss the playoffs? Hell would literally have to freeze over. Or this:  Bonus Everyone Collapses Real Bad Except the Rams for Some Reason Scenario  Week 17 Winner is in, Loser goes home games in this scenario GB@DET DAL@PHI CAR@ATL That'd be insane edit: What If The NFC Forgot How To Win? 
axeil fucked around with this message at 03:43 on Dec 6, 2017 |
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Dec 6, 2017 03:41
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This is a pro read
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Dec 6, 2017 04:27
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Let's Talk Probabilities - AFC The AFC is actually a lot easier to talk about. Well at least until you get to tẖ̹̦̹ḛ̹͉̤̩̖͞ ҉A̛̮̻̯̜F͉̫̣C̳̖̤̤ ̥̜̹̳͇̱W̳̼̦̞̠͉̳͢è̻̝̥̺̘̦̻s͙̠t̯̬̘͜ ͘a̡n̳͍̼͖̪̼ͅd́ ̬̖̰͕̳̙́ͅ6͕̫̰͎͡ͅt̠̼͓̘̥h̬̱͠ ̦S̤̦̙̺͙̗͚e̮e̴̳͎͙̟͇̠d̼ AFC Analysis Congratulations Pittsburgh on yet another AFC North title. Barring an absolutely improbable collapse the Steelers will be one of our 4 divisional champions out of the AFC. But at this point, no one is focusing on that, or even on the hunt for a bye (which is also all but guaranteed). No, instead the fine folks in Western PA are laser-focused on a date with the Patriots in 2 weeks. The winner will almost assuredly be the #1 seed, while the loser will have to fend off Jacksonville for the 2 spot. Analysis Wow. The Pats won a division. Who could've foreseen this . Just like Pittsburgh, all eyes are on the #1 seed. Not much else to talk about. Interestingly their probability is quite a bit lower than Pittsburgh on PlayoffStatus and FO but higher on NYTimes. Modeling differences! Hooray!Analysis Poor Titans. They're currently leading their division but only seem to be slight favorites to keep it. In part that's because FO's DVOA is really not impressed with Tennesee and due to Jacksonville's tied record, it's very hard to not make the Week 17 game the only one that really matters. Unfortunately an earlier loss to Pittsburgh puts pretty much all hopes of a bye out of reach and a poor 7-4 conference record dooms them against the Patriots' 2 game lead and 7-1 record in the AFC. Analysis Jesus Christ Chiefs . One minute y'all are 5-0 and in talks to be the best team in the NFL, the next you are barely holding on to a division lead. At the end of Week 8 the Chiefs had a commanding 3 game lead with the rest of the AFC West looking done for. They're now in a fight for their playoff lives. Make no mistake, losing to Oakland would be absolutely catastrophic, dropping their playoff chances from around 60% to under 1-in-4. Conversely, winning this week's match-up with the Raiders would put away one of their divisional rivals and perhaps restore some confidence.Analysis The other half of the AFC South duo, Jacksonville is in a much happier place than the Titans thanks to a Week 5 win over Pittsburgh. That win is driving all of their higher than expected chance of a bye and even the #1 seed for the current Wild Card team. While their game this week against the Seahawks should be a good one, it will have almost no impact on their playoff position. That's what happens when you have a cross-conference game though. Analysis W̴͔̹̫eḽ̼͓c̨͕͖͉̹̖͉̣om͜e̟̻̣͔͓͢ ̴̹̯͉͕̯͉̪T̝̼͎̥͎̲̞͝ǫ̳͇͈̫̯̙ ̵̲̮͎T͏͓̯̘̖̙̙h̝͚̯̻e̴ ̰6͍t͙̜̟̹͖̯ḫ̹͚̹͍͟ ̙̩̦͔̱Ș̘̖̟͔̖̬e̻ed̘̖̬̮̻. I'm going to be blunt here, all the teams from here on out have major, major flaws and are probably 1-and-done in the playoffs. That said, each conference gets 6 spots so we have to figure out who gets this last one. The Ravens claim to the last spot is their stifling defense. A win this week would help them prevent Pittsburgh from clinching the division, but win or lose it doesn't have much impact on their chances. Analysis Raise your hand if you thought the Chargers would be in the mix in December? Yeah, I didn't think so either. But thanks to the Chiefs turning into a pumpkin and the general...whatever the hell is going on for the 6th seed, the Chargers are very much alive. With a game against both the Chiefs and Raiders left on the schedule, the Chargers can punch their own ticket if they keep up with whoever wins this week's Chiefs/Raiders game. And the last seed isn't out of grasp either. Thanks to The Nathan Peterman Game the Chargers have a crucial tiebreaker over the Bills. Analysis THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T BENCH AN OKAY QUARTERBACK FOR NATHAN loving PETERMAN. If Sean McDermott wasn't an idiot the Bills may have won the game against the Chargers and they would be at 7-5 and the 6th seed instead of the Ravens. Instead, the Bills have decided to try doing things the hard way. A very poor conference record (4-4) means the Bills are going to need all the luck they can get. Analysis The Raiders have a very small chance of getting the 6th seed but it's almost impossible because it requires them to both 1) lose games in the division, denying them the division crown; 2) win all their other games; 3) have the Ravens and Bills refuse to win games. While 1) and 3) seems likely, 2) seems very unlikely in combo with the others. Thus, the Raiders only real chance is the division. This week's game against KC might as well be an elimination game for that reason.
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Dec 6, 2017 05:01
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Do the Chargers have a better shot at winning the division or the last wild card at this point?
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Dec 6, 2017 05:20
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a neat cape posted:Do the Chargers have a better shot at winning the division or the last wild card at this point? Their wild card odds are only about 3%. Ultimately it comes down to 2 questions: 1) Do you think the Chargers can win their divisional games? 2) Do you think the Chargers will win more games than the Bills+Ravens? If you think 1 is true then they should win the division regardless of what anyone else does as they control their own destiny for the 4th seed. If however you don't expect them to win their divisional games then they need the Bills and Ravens to start losing games, although they actually control their destiny for the Wild Cards too (but to win the WC they have to not win the division, which requires them to lose a game somewhere).
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Dec 6, 2017 05:24
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