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FourLeaf posted:Though everyone should be aware that in the "Obama" SOTU market, "a compound word consisting in part of such name (such as "Obamacare" or "Obamanomics") will not qualify." Which makes NO very underpriced imho. 
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Jan 31, 2018 05:20
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I totally turned that six bucks into, like, nine bucks on that bet.
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Jan 31, 2018 19:11
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:I totally turned that six bucks into, like, nine bucks on that bet. nice
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Jan 31, 2018 19:20
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there's a market for betting on trump's SOTU ratings, pegged to nielsen nielsen says 40.4 million watched but "42.4 million or fewer" plunged today. PI seems to think the final numbers when they come in tonight will be slightly higher. but  ah. 46 mil. BrutalistMcDonalds has issued a correction as of 23:07 on Jan 31, 2018 |
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Jan 31, 2018 21:54
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:there's a market for betting on trump's SOTU ratings, pegged to nielsen If I recall correctly Nielsen changes how/where they source their numbers pretty frequently so prior figures aren't always apples-to-apples. The smart money accounts for precisely which stations are being included etc.
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Jan 31, 2018 23:21
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:there's a market for betting on trump's SOTU ratings, pegged to nielsen made about 6k on that market when the 40.4 number came out, the price for under 42.5 spiked up to 90 and stayed there for a bit
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Feb 1, 2018 17:44
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arkane, jesus
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Feb 1, 2018 18:24
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So the fed chair market.quote:The individual named in the question shall be Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on February 4, 2018, with such individual having been confirmed to that position by the U.S. Senate and assumed the office. quote:The Federal Open Market Committee, at its annual organizational meeting this week, unanimously selected Jerome H. Powell to serve as its Chairman, effective February 3, 2018. He is scheduled to be sworn in as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on the next business day at approximately 9 a.m. EST February 5. Am I crazy or should this market be 99 cents for Powell / Yes?
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Feb 1, 2018 22:48
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you’re out of ya head
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Feb 1, 2018 22:52
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Seems like it'd be easy for PredictIt to say he's not official before the swearing in. You're betting on a market ruling here, which is always an iffy proposition.
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Feb 1, 2018 22:53
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Yeah that's the weird thing. He'll be the chair of the FOMC, but to serve as the chair of the FOMC means you're the chair of the Board of Governors! But that's before his swearing in on that! It's madness!
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Feb 1, 2018 22:57
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quote:Today, President Donald J. Trump nominated Jerome H. Powell of Maryland to be Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for a term of four years beginning February 3, 2018. 
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Feb 2, 2018 01:14
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bawfuls posted:Seems like it'd be easy for PredictIt to say he's not official before the swearing in. You're betting on a market ruling here, which is always an iffy proposition.
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Feb 2, 2018 01:16
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you're confusing things. that quote and that link do not match from the fed's link: "The Federal Open Market Committee, at its annual organizational meeting this week, unanimously selected Jerome H. Powell to serve as its Chairman, effective February 3, 2018. He is scheduled to be sworn in as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on the next business day at approximately 9 a.m. EST February 5." from the rules: The individual named in the question shall be Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on February 4, 2018, with such individual having been confirmed to that position by the U.S. Senate and assumed the office. it's pretty clear. basically, yellen's term ends saturday night. at that point, the fed will not have a chair of the board of governors. there will be an acting chair, i believe powell. but, again, per the rules: An individual serving as acting chair at the date and time in question will not be sufficient to cause a question naming that individual to resolve as Yes. only way this resolves yes is if someone swears him in sunday, which ain't happening. abelwingnut has issued a correction as of 04:57 on Feb 2, 2018 |
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Feb 2, 2018 04:51
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:Yeah that's the weird thing. He'll be the chair of the FOMC, but to serve as the chair of the FOMC means you're the chair of the Board of Governors! But that's before his swearing in on that! Free advice: you are wrong about this. If you're holding long, I wouldn't. The reasons why have been debated ad nauseum, but suffice it to say the short holders are correct and I am max short Powell.
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Feb 2, 2018 17:39
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Shutdown volume 2 is warming up a little
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Feb 7, 2018 21:37
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:So the fed chair market.
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Feb 7, 2018 21:42
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bawfuls posted:How did this work out for you btw? I wasn't watching the market when it closed. All the markets resolved to No vvv I lost six! theres a will theres moe has issued a correction as of 22:42 on Feb 7, 2018 |
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Feb 7, 2018 22:36
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bawfuls posted:How did this work out for you btw? I wasn't watching the market when it closed. 
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Feb 7, 2018 22:41
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Made money last shutdown because PI decided YES even though their rules were dumb. This time they made the rules even stupider, so I think I made a bad bet hoping they'd honor a shutdown regardless of official number of furloughed employees. Not sure why their rules are tied to specific numbers of employees vs "was a bill passed by 2/18 at X:XX" or something. The employee numbers aren't always released and their are political reasons to juke those numbers in either direction.
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Feb 9, 2018 16:37
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Well they added the OPM.gov stipulation, but it's that and/or the 200,000 people bit. Markets closing in odd ways based on weird/dumb PredictIt rules is a time honored tradition. Didn't the Paris Climate Accords market resolve as "no, US didn't withdraw" even though for all practical purposes that's not what happened?
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Feb 9, 2018 18:40
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Vishass posted:Made money last shutdown because PI decided YES even though their rules were dumb. Makes for a fun market in the meantime, though! bawfuls posted:Well they added the OPM.gov stipulation, but it's that and/or the 200,000 people bit. The OPM.gov only specifies a case in which the market would resolve "yes". It doesn't say anything about resolving as "no", so it falls to counting the number of furloughed workers.
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Feb 9, 2018 18:42
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anecdotally I have two relatives in non essential government who aren’t sure if they were furloughed but their offices were closed this morning to avoid confusion (like closing for anticipated snow) so I’m under the impression in spirit I’m right but the PI reality is probably a coin flip regardless of what that website does
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Feb 9, 2018 19:03
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ahgsfrdewe
Somebody has issued a correction as of 05:41 on Feb 19, 2018 |
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Feb 19, 2018 05:37
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and here i was excited for some new Predictions, but no.
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Feb 19, 2018 20:56
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fun past 24 hours between tillerson and lamb
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Mar 14, 2018 13:09
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I figured there was a more nefarious reason the last thread got closed and never realized this one was here. But that's as ancient news as the very profitable Catalonian election which was the last thing going on I recall before the last thread was locked. In recent times, It was an agonizing 13 some odd days waiting for those Arizona Special election MOV markets to close. When are we going to get the market for "Will Michigan pass recreational marihuana (do any other states legally spell it like that?) in 2018?" Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 04:06 on May 12, 2018 |
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May 12, 2018 04:04
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Merlot Brougham posted:I figured there was a more nefarious reason the last thread got closed and never realized this one was here. But that's as ancient news as the very profitable Catalonian election which was the last thing going on I recall before the last thread was locked. In recent times, It was an agonizing 13 some odd days waiting for those Arizona Special election MOV markets to close. Nah the last thread got haunted so we had to close it and make this one. Hence the title
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May 12, 2018 04:13
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Hope everyone loaded up on the PA-05 primary.
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May 16, 2018 02:56
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I'm all in on the Mexican elections babeeeee
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May 16, 2018 04:21
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i turned 100 bucks into 250 bucks on doug jones and put that all on AMLO when he was at like 40 cents. free money is good
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May 16, 2018 05:51
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my brother from the other room: "are you betting on mexican elections again!?" uhh... maybe
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May 16, 2018 05:53
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:I'm all in on the Mexican elections babeeeee What you got? AMLO takes it unless Meade drops out. EDIT for more context: I have seen some reports saying that one of the two right-wingers, Anaya or Meade, will drop out. I think it'd have to be Meade, to coalesce a blocking vote against AMLO. I should have bought AMLO early, and I regret flipping my Meade shorts so cheap - I thought Anaya might drop out, but no way at this point.
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May 16, 2018 06:34
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Yeah I bought a bunch of AMLO.
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May 16, 2018 06:47
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Let's go anyone but Duque in Colombia! I think the market is undervaluing a) the chance of a runoff election and b) the chance that second place will go to someone that isn't Petro.
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May 27, 2018 00:01
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The next Italian PM market has been chaotically great, as has the on-again-off-again Korean summit. Fun month of PI!
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May 30, 2018 17:22
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This market seems ripe for opportunity (CA-49th). This is Issa's district, where in 2016 he barely beat out retired Dem Marine Colonel (plays big here) Applegate. Now Applegate is trying to finish the job, but there's two other Dems in the jungle primary (Levin from OC and Jacobs as the Berniecrat), along with the two Rs Harkey and Chavez. This race is way too unpredictable and wide open to give anyone a price near 75c as Harkey has right now. Election is tomorrow and in the past 2 weeks polling has been all over the place. The district spans parts of northern SD county and southern Orange County. In 2016 the SD portion went for Applegate while the OC portion carried Issa to a squeaker of a win. Harkey and Levin are both OC candidates, while Applegate is from SD.
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Jun 4, 2018 20:47
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bawfuls posted:This market seems ripe for opportunity (CA-49th). Many of these congressional primary races would be great options to make a quick or two. One or two crappy polls in a poorly understood race means it's basically a giant question mark, especially in this environment.
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Jun 4, 2018 20:51
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Actually, PI seems to be missing a bunch of the good CA races. Sad!
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Jun 4, 2018 20:56
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| # ? May 3, 2024 16:46 |
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Yeah they don't even have a CA Senate market. DiFi will win the primary of course but the second/third place is interesting, and they have a second place market for the Governor's race.
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Jun 4, 2018 21:38
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