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HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

eff needs to win

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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

drat iunno poo poo about MK

oh it was only formed in December, crazy

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013

Plutonis posted:

ANC might be in danger of losing their 30 year grip. Zuma's defection to the MK party completely wrecked their support with the Zulu vote.

https://twitter.com/leon_schreib/status/1766859293964300581?s=46

I recommend that you be skeptical of a poll conducted by the family who are the biggest donors of the DA party, and the richest in the country.

Edit:
https://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/about/

Votskomit has issued a correction as of 18:03 on Mar 12, 2024

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013

i say swears online posted:

drat iunno poo poo about MK

oh it was only formed in December, crazy

It's a clown show and people are skeptical of its support.

This has happened before several times with former ANC members. Thus far amongst former ANC members, Julius Malema has the best track record of gaining votes.



HallelujahLee posted:

eff needs to win

They won't, but their support may increase, and they may be in a key position to choose a coalition after the election.

They are communists so my normal assumption is that coalitions will be made against them.

However the ANC is partnered with the SACP so... I dunno. It's might be an Interesting Time.

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

Votskomit posted:

It's a clown show and people are skeptical of its support.

This has happened before several times with former ANC members. Thus far amongst former ANC members, Julius Malema has the best track record of gaining votes.

They won't, but their support may increase, and they may be in a key position to choose a coalition after the election.

They are communists so my normal assumption is that coalitions will be made against them.

However the ANC is partnered with the SACP so... I dunno. It's might be an Interesting Time.

would be nice if the sacp allied the eff

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013

HallelujahLee posted:

would be nice if the sacp allied the eff

I don't think Blade Nzimande is willing to risk his ministerial post by antagonizing the ANC.

However the SACP does seem to be slightly less lethargic and complacent ever since the EFF entered the scene.

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

Votskomit posted:

I don't think Blade Nzimande is willing to risk his ministerial post by antagonizing the ANC.

However the SACP does seem to be slightly less lethargic and complacent ever since the EFF entered the scene.
have any major unions abandoned the anc?

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
is there a good way to wish someone a good ramadan assuming thats appropriate? i know very little and not sure where to ask.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

RadiRoot posted:

is there a good way to wish someone a good ramadan assuming thats appropriate? i know very little and not sure where to ask.

"ramadan mubarak" is basically arabic "happy holidays". it's totally fine and appropriate everywhere

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013

HallelujahLee posted:

have any major unions abandoned the anc?

Yes, Numsa. Metal workers. They are Marxist, have 300k members and had a reluctant relationship with the ANC ever since Mandela forced them to accept the GEAR neolib policies in ~96.

They abandoned the ANC a few years back and are not currently officially endorsing anyone but are obviously building ties with the EFF.

https://twitter.com/Numsa_Media

Their Twitter is decent.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

Votskomit posted:

Blade Nzimande

The coolest name I've ever seen

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

Votskomit posted:

Yes, Numsa. Metal workers. They are Marxist, have 300k members and had a reluctant relationship with the ANC ever since Mandela forced them to accept the GEAR neolib policies in ~96.

They abandoned the ANC a few years back and are not currently officially endorsing anyone but are obviously building ties with the EFF.

https://twitter.com/Numsa_Media

Their Twitter is decent.

thanks for the info thats good to see imo

Bro Dad
Mar 26, 2010


Hasn't the DA been shifting from The Normal Whites to outright pro-apartheid/Trump poo poo lately? I'm surprised they're picking up votes regardless of how bad the ANC is

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Bro Dad posted:

Hasn't the DA been shifting from The Normal Whites to outright pro-apartheid/Trump poo poo lately? I'm surprised they're picking up votes regardless of how bad the ANC is

that's FPlus, DA are lib whites and "colored" voters, very middle class and popular in Cape Town iirc

edit maybe you're right? wiki says they're a much older and whiter party than I remember in the past

i say swears online has issued a correction as of 20:53 on Mar 12, 2024

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013
Please have a look at the DAs election manifesto point number 1:



They are a Suburban Liberal party and their biggest funders are the same people who funded apartheid. Mining magnates and Media Moguls.

They (the Democratic Alliance) were formed by the progressive Democratic Party forming an alliance with the New National Party and the FA (who split to form the FF+).

i say swears online posted:

that's FPlus, DA are lib whites and "colored" voters, very middle class and popular in Cape Town iirc

edit maybe you're right? wiki says they're a much older and whiter party than I remember in the past

You've got it right. Suburbanites in Cape Town usually vote DA regardless of race.

They are however becoming increasingly white because all the black and coloured leaders tend to leave the org, for some inexplicable reason.

Further, they support Israel. There's a correlation between supporting Israel and whiteness in this country, so...


Bro Dad posted:

Hasn't the DA been shifting from The Normal Whites to outright pro-apartheid/Trump poo poo lately? I'm surprised they're picking up votes regardless of how bad the ANC is

Their most influential figure, Helen Zille, wrote this book recently.

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007

i say swears online posted:

"ramadan mubarak" is basically arabic "happy holidays". it's totally fine and appropriate everywhere

thanks

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


lmao good post ty

Pomeroy
Apr 20, 2020

Votskomit posted:

Yes, Numsa. Metal workers. They are Marxist, have 300k members and had a reluctant relationship with the ANC ever since Mandela forced them to accept the GEAR neolib policies in ~96.

They abandoned the ANC a few years back and are not currently officially endorsing anyone but are obviously building ties with the EFF.

https://twitter.com/Numsa_Media

Their Twitter is decent.

They're also involved with the International People's Assembly: https://twitter.com/peoplesdispatch/status/1681020174986625025?t=hykngNzh6vAZz3BbaZB4ig&s=19

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Votskomit posted:

Please have a look at the DAs election manifesto point number 1:



holy crap lol

Votskomit
Jun 26, 2013
Coincidentally

https://twitter.com/Numsa_Media/status/1767945836367913072?t=qrHLCWP6RK0SCBNhWrIB9w&s=19

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

🤣🤣🤣🤣👊🏾👊🏾👊🏾👊🏾👊🏾👊🏾❤️🖤💛

lol hell yeah

PawParole
Nov 16, 2019

In-depth Analysis – Amhara region crisis: The weight of a crumbling core

This rising sentiment has also ignited a tide of a new form of Amhara nationalism in the expression of the desire for secession among many political activists, unheard in the history of Ethiopia.

https://addisstandard.com/in-depth-analysis-amhara-region-crisis-the-weight-of-a-crumbling-core/

------------------------------------------

DRIVERS OF CONFLICT IN THE AMHARA REGION
The conflicts in the Amhara region can be categorized into inter- and intra-regional conflicts. Their drivers vary and can be multi-layered and interlinked: inter-Amhara conflicts, for example, are linked to intra-regional conflicts or their drivers.

Competing Identity-Based Movements
The Amhara region, like other regions in Ethiopia, has experienced conflicts driven by competing identity-based movements. Ethnic and religious aspirations have played a significant role in driving tensions and conflicts, as different groups such as the Agew, Qimant, and Oromo living in Oromo Special Zone of the Amhara region seek recognition, representation, and autonomy. Moreover, the lack of representation and massacres that the Amharas living outside the Amhara region have often faced has also contributed to political resentment across the region.

Territorial Disputes
At times related to contentious identity-based movements, but a key driver in its own right, is territorial disputes. Land and resource ownership and allocation have been contentious issues in the Amhara region. Disputes over territories and boundaries have sparked conflicts, with various groups vying for control and asserting their claims. The question of territory also applies to the Wolqayt-T(s)egede conflict where Amhara and Tigray identities are at loggerheads. Similarily, the Ethio-Sudan border skirmishes are another instance of territory-driven conflict

Political Power Realignment
Competing national and ethnic aspirations often interact with continuities and change in the Ethiopian state, where ethnic groups are demanding more representation centrally at the same time as seeking autonomy within their region. For example, Amhara nationalists believe they are being sidelined from central power and also feel their autonomy within the region is being eroded. They believe the PP is dominated by Oromo political elites who want to impose their will, including in the Amhara region. Marginalization of Amhara representatives from peace processes, such as with the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), has created grievances and tensions. A related factor is the quest for a new political settlement in, and redefinition of, the Ethiopian state. The remaking of Ethiopia’s social contract is portrayed as reducing the north’s cultural and political dominance and giving the so-called ‘Greater South’ more representation. Lastly, power struggles at the regional level are another factor driving conflicts on the ground. Fragmentation among fighting parties is linked to the power struggle between the different provincialized identities within the Amhara region.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.
PP, it's been said before, but I appreciate the updates on the Ethiopia war even if I don't have much to say.

In other news, this could be big.

https://twitter.com/marcus_herve/status/1769118043836141681

Megamissen
Jul 19, 2022

any post can be a kannapost
if you want it to be

Weka posted:

PP, it's been said before, but I appreciate the updates on the Ethiopia war even if I don't have much to say.

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*
edit: wrong thread!

Weka posted:

PP, it's been said before, but I appreciate the updates on the Ethiopia war even if I don't have much to say.

same.

crepeface has issued a correction as of 13:53 on Mar 17, 2024

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
Cool

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1769291145987989933?t=A6Q3ZyA-VTQRuKXfNGwWrA&s=19

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

PawParole posted:

In-depth Analysis – Amhara region crisis: The weight of a crumbling core

This rising sentiment has also ignited a tide of a new form of Amhara nationalism in the expression of the desire for secession among many political activists, unheard in the history of Ethiopia.

https://addisstandard.com/in-depth-analysis-amhara-region-crisis-the-weight-of-a-crumbling-core/

------------------------------------------

DRIVERS OF CONFLICT IN THE AMHARA REGION
The conflicts in the Amhara region can be categorized into inter- and intra-regional conflicts. Their drivers vary and can be multi-layered and interlinked: inter-Amhara conflicts, for example, are linked to intra-regional conflicts or their drivers.

Competing Identity-Based Movements
The Amhara region, like other regions in Ethiopia, has experienced conflicts driven by competing identity-based movements. Ethnic and religious aspirations have played a significant role in driving tensions and conflicts, as different groups such as the Agew, Qimant, and Oromo living in Oromo Special Zone of the Amhara region seek recognition, representation, and autonomy. Moreover, the lack of representation and massacres that the Amharas living outside the Amhara region have often faced has also contributed to political resentment across the region.

Territorial Disputes
At times related to contentious identity-based movements, but a key driver in its own right, is territorial disputes. Land and resource ownership and allocation have been contentious issues in the Amhara region. Disputes over territories and boundaries have sparked conflicts, with various groups vying for control and asserting their claims. The question of territory also applies to the Wolqayt-T(s)egede conflict where Amhara and Tigray identities are at loggerheads. Similarily, the Ethio-Sudan border skirmishes are another instance of territory-driven conflict

Political Power Realignment
Competing national and ethnic aspirations often interact with continuities and change in the Ethiopian state, where ethnic groups are demanding more representation centrally at the same time as seeking autonomy within their region. For example, Amhara nationalists believe they are being sidelined from central power and also feel their autonomy within the region is being eroded. They believe the PP is dominated by Oromo political elites who want to impose their will, including in the Amhara region. Marginalization of Amhara representatives from peace processes, such as with the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), has created grievances and tensions. A related factor is the quest for a new political settlement in, and redefinition of, the Ethiopian state. The remaking of Ethiopia’s social contract is portrayed as reducing the north’s cultural and political dominance and giving the so-called ‘Greater South’ more representation. Lastly, power struggles at the regional level are another factor driving conflicts on the ground. Fragmentation among fighting parties is linked to the power struggle between the different provincialized identities within the Amhara region.

Still getting used to the idea of Oromo power elites. Amhara and Tigray dominated the country so much when I lived there 15 yrs ago. Things have really changed.

Polgas
Sep 2, 2018


With one hand he saves gebs. With the other he commits goblin genocide. A true neutral.

Weka posted:

PP, it's been said before, but I appreciate the updates on the Ethiopia war even if I don't have much to say.

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Excellent

Curious to see how this goes, though. If America doesn't comply, does Niger just accept that or do they attempt to enforce?

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1769596940402962440

Major cope from US hegemony fanboys. I'm sure the US is actually really eager to abandon one of their largest drone bases as some 32 dimensional cheese maneuver.

e: Did I really loving say "cheese maneuver" lmao

VoicesCanBe has issued a correction as of 01:16 on Mar 21, 2024

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

VoicesCanBe posted:

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1769596940402962440

Major cope from US hegemony fanboys. I'm sure the US is actually really eager to abandon one of their largest drone bases as some 32 dimensional cheese maneuver.

quote:

the US will probably remove the base and in doing so will allow ISIS in the area to be able to conduct more offensive operations against the government.

quote:

if the US leaves and ISIS and others turn on the government it will be a strong message to the rest of the area.

strange how ISIS keeps doing this

Spergin Morlock
Aug 8, 2009

bedpan posted:

strange how ISIS keeps doing this

what'll be really weird is when ISIS is still there and lashing out but suddenly much less effective once the US leaves

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.
As of a couple of years ago America had 5 or 6 bases in Niger. They have left one in Niamey after the most recent coup but that is all I am aware of, so being forced out would be quite a blow.

They are in talks with a couple of west African coastal states for a new drone base for "unarmed surveillance" but they don't have the central location like Niger. On a hunch I looked up Libya news and what do you know... Benghazi still ain't going away

quote:

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/11/politics/us-wants-to-reopen-embassy-libya/index.html

US wants to reopen embassy in Libya
March 11, 2024

The United States wants to reopen an embassy in Libya - a decade after suspending operations there
...
A State Department official said Monday that the US is in “active negotiations for an interim facility that would provide appropriate security and staffing support” in the capital city of Tripoli.
...
“[A] number of countries are at the tipping point of actually being captured by the Russian Federation as they are spreading some of their false narratives across Libya and from a strategic answer piece, access and influence across the whole Maghreb,” Marine Corps Gen. Michael Langley, the head of US Africa Command, warned last week. “That is NATO’s southern flank. We need to be able to have — maintain access and influence across the Mahgreb, from Morocco all the way to Libya.”

quote:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/libyan-leaders-agree-form-new-unified-government-2024-03-10/

Libyan leaders agree to form new unified government
March 11, 2024

Three key Libyan leaders said on Sunday they had agreed on the "necessity" of forming a new unified government that would supervise long-delayed elections.

A political process to resolve more than a decade of conflict in Libya has been stalled since an election scheduled for December 2021 collapsed amid disputes over the eligibility of the main candidates.

The leaders are the president of the Presidential Council (PC) Mohamed Menfi, the head of High State Council (HSC) Mohamed Takala, who are both based in Tripoli, and Aguila Saleh, speaker of the House of Representatives (HoR) in Benghazi.

Poppers
Jan 21, 2023

Plutonis posted:

ANC might be in danger of losing their 30 year grip. Zuma's defection to the MK party completely wrecked their support with the Zulu vote.

https://twitter.com/leon_schreib/status/1766859293964300581?s=46

Zulu MKin me crazy!!! Lol

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Spergin Morlock posted:

what'll be really weird is when ISIS is still there and lashing out but suddenly much less effective once the US leaves

That's just a coincidence and its repeating occurance is wholly unremarkable.

PawParole
Nov 16, 2019

Shageletic posted:

Still getting used to the idea of Oromo power elites. Amhara and Tigray dominated the country so much when I lived there 15 yrs ago. Things have really changed.

TBF only a particular clique of “oromos” are in charge, the pente tulama shewans that 20 years ago would call themselves Amhara but now have rediscovered their ethnic roots. Average Oromo is still poor and disenfranchised.

PawParole has issued a correction as of 07:45 on Mar 19, 2024

PawParole
Nov 16, 2019

https://twitter.com/iReelMuaz/status/1769867720034590802

#Chad Alert 🚨 : Mahamat Kaka summoned to Abu Dhabi after General Hemeti's military setbacks in Sudan

The Chadian dictator has just flown to the United Arab Emirates. This trip, at high risk for Kaka, who has not left Chad for months, comes in parallel with the difficulties encountered by General Hemeti in Sudan. After the fall of Oumdurman three days ago, the Sudanese army is tightening its grip on Khartoum, where thousands of men from the Rapid Support Forces, supported in arms and fuel by the Emirates via the Chadian junta, are now trapped.

According to two corroborating sources cross-checked by ChadOne, the Emiratis will request direct intervention from the Chadian regime's army on the Sudanese front to rescue Hemeti.

The project provides for the deployment of a force of several thousand men armed and financed by the Emiratis, with the objective of storming Khartoum, then Port Sudan. In Ndjamena, it is General Idriss Youssouf Boy, the Emiratis emissary, who promotes and supports this initiative. Idriss Youssouf Boy also owns a town in Palm Jumeirah in Dubai and had received more than 50 million dollars from the Emiratis.

The French, informed by their services and the Qataris of this maneuver, warned Kaka during the visit of Macron's personal representative to Ndjamena.

In exchange for this intervention in the Sudanese theater, the junta negotiated a donation of several tens of millions of dollars for the benefit of Mahamat Kaka and General Idriss Youssouf Boy

. A sum which will be paid into accounts in the Emirates, part of which will then be transferred to Chad to finance the upcoming electoral campaign. However, this project carries many risks for those in power. In addition to the diplomatic consequences, with the risk of severe reactions from the Americans, Turks, Qataris, Egyptians and Libyans, there is also a danger on the military level.

The Sudanese army has regained strength thanks to its aviation and the intensive use of Chinese, Turkish, Iranian and even Ukrainian drones. Finally, intervention in the internal affairs of a neighboring country could create tensions within the Chadian army. TchadOne is closely following this trip and will return quickly with new elements.

Private correspondence from TchadOne to Ndjamena

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

Weka posted:

As of a couple of years ago America had 5 or 6 bases in Niger. They have left one in Niamey after the most recent coup but that is all I am aware of, so being forced out would be quite a blow.

They are in talks with a couple of west African coastal states for a new drone base for "unarmed surveillance" but they don't have the central location like Niger. On a hunch I looked up Libya news and what do you know... Benghazi still ain't going away

I haven't heard much news from Libya since the 2021 election was indefinitely postponed. It's still divided between the GNA and the LNA, right? With the GNA being "internationally recognized" (emphasis on quotation marks) and including Tripoli, and the LNA being Haftar's faction which includes Benghazi

Pomeroy
Apr 20, 2020
https://twitter.com/BTnewsroom/status/1770153284747047316

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dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


Weka posted:

PP, it's been said before, but I appreciate the updates on the Ethiopia war even if I don't have much to say.

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