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guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Guys, guys - there might be some growing pains in Saudi Arabia as MBS ascends but I predict a new stability will finally emerge in 6 months.

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guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Yeah, not even a cited source in the WSJ article unless I missed it.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

MBS even managed to annoy a neocon

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/if-saudi-journalist-jamal-khashoggi-is-dead-is-mohammed-bin-salman-the-worlds-most-dangerous-man

Michael Rubin @ AEI posted:

If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman or henchmen acting on his behalf killed Khashoggi, they have made a huge mistake from which it may not be possible to recover. It may not be fair to the many other dissidents — women’s rights activists, for example — arrested in recent months, but Khashoggi was better known in Washington and liked by many. U.S. officials might have excused a whole host of Saudi malfeasance in the belief that the crown prince was seeking to implement a century’s worth of reforms in just a couple years, but there can be no excuse for killing a journalist, let alone in such a grotesque way. Partisans of Iran should not, however, cheer because bad behavior in Saudi Arabia can never launder the extremism in Iran or vice versa. Rather, it is time to recognize that Crown Prince Mohammed, like Saddam Hussein, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and a long list of others, is not the great reformist hope that so many seek, but rather just another despot with a silver tongue undeserving of U.S. support.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Business Gorillas posted:

Hey so I'm not reading 78 pages of posts. I'm Jewish and I was talking with a Jewish friend of mine after he brought up how some leftists at a bar were talking about how Israel was bad.

Is there an article giving a summary of how hosed up Israel actually is and how the Israeli right is trying to make anti-zionism anti-Semitism?

Basically, I need "Babbys first Israel Is Bad" to share

I mean I have no idea where to start because it'd help that the author be a trusted arbiter. I'm sure me and a lotta folks might have issues in this thread, but https://forward.com/author/peter-beinart/ (namely: https://forward.com/opinion/408066/...ting-4-headline ) and other stuff on Forward might be a good start down the rabbit hole.

There's some activist Israelis in the IP thread in DnD that might be able to help.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

They want to go into negotiations with an upper hand but lets just put it this way: how did Hodeidah go last time they pushed? I'm betting this time, it'll be even more hasty.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Al_Hudaydah

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Willie Tomg posted:

they've been ready to talk, its the kingdom and collaborationist government that isn't.

p much this

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Boatswain posted:

Why would Kurds aligning with Assad change anything with regards to Israel?

Because Israel doesn't want peace and stability in Syria and have probably been interested in lobbying Syrian Kurds to be a future fifth column to promote future instability.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

the sweetest love letter :swoon:

quote:

The decision not to act is often the hardest one to make—and it isn’t always right. In 2007, I watched a string of vehicles pass from Iran into northern Iraq. I had been serving as the head of the U.S. military’s Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) for four years, working to stem the terrorism that had devastated the region, and I had become accustomed to making tough choices. But on that January night, the choice was particularly tricky: whether or not to attack a convoy that included Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force—an organization roughly analogous to a combination of the CIA and JSOC in the United States.

There was good reason to eliminate Suleimani. At the time, Iranian-made roadside bombs built and deployed at his command were claiming the lives of U.S. troops across Iraq. But to avoid a firefight, and the contentious politics that would follow, I decided that we should monitor the caravan, not strike immediately. By the time the convoy had reached Erbil, Suleimani had slipped away into the darkness.

These days, he still operates outside the spotlight. Suleimani has grown from a military commander into a ghostly puppet master, relying on quiet cleverness and grit to bolster Iran’s international influence. His brilliance, effectiveness, and commitment to his country have been revered by his allies and denounced by his critics in equal measure. What all seem to agree on, however, is that the humble leader’s steady hand has helped guide Iranian foreign policy for decades—and there is no denying his successes on the battlefield. Suleimani is arguably the most powerful and unconstrained actor in the Middle East today. U.S. defense officials have reported that Suleimani is running the Syrian civil war (via Iran’s local proxies) all on his own.

The prominence the soft-spoken Suleimani has achieved is especially striking given his origins. Born into poverty in the mountains of eastern Iran, he displayed remarkable tenacity at an early age. When his father was unable to pay a debt, the 13-year-old Suleimani worked to pay it off himself. He spent his free time lifting weights and attending sermons given by a protégé of Iran’s current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was enamored with the Iranian revolution as a young man. In 1979, at only 22, Suleimani began his ascent through the Iranian military, reportedly receiving just six weeks of tactical training before seeing combat for the first time in Iran’s West Azerbaijan province. But he is truly a child of the Iran-Iraq War, which began the next year. He emerged from the bloody conflict a hero for the missions he led across Iraq’s border—but more important, he emerged as a confident, proven leader.

Suleimani is no longer simply a soldier; he is a calculating and practical strategist. Most ruthlessly and at the cost of all else, he has forged lasting relationships to bolster Iran’s position in the region. No other individual has had comparable success in aligning and empowering Shiite allies in the Levant. His staunch defense of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has effectively halted any progress by the Islamic State and other rebel groups, all but ensuring that Assad remains in power and stays solidly allied to Iran. Perhaps most notably, under Suleimani’s leadership, the Quds Force has vastly expanded its capabilities. His shrewd pragmatism has transformed the unit into a major influencer in intelligence, financial, and political spheres beyond Iran’s borders.

It would be unwise, however, to study Suleimani’s success without situating him in a broader geopolitical context. He is a uniquely Iranian leader, a clear product of the country’s outlook following the 1979 revolution. His expansive assessment of Iranian interests and rights matches those common among Iranian elites. Iran’s resistance toward the United States’ involvement in the Middle East is a direct result of U.S. involvement in the Iran-Iraq War, during which Suleimani’s worldview developed. Above all else, Suleimani is driven by the fervent nationalism that is the lifeblood of Iran’s citizens and leadership.

Suleimani’s accomplishments are, in large part, due to his country’s long-term approach toward foreign policy. The Quds Force commander’s extended tenure in his role—he assumed control of the unit in 1998—is another important factor. A byproduct of Iran’s complicated political environment, Suleimani enjoys freedom of action over an extended time horizon that is the envy of many U.S. military and intelligence professionals. Because a leader’s power ultimately lies in the eyes of others and is increased by the perceived likelihood of future power, Suleimani has been able to act with greater credibility than if he were viewed as a temporary player.

In that sense, then, Suleimani’s success is driven by both his talent and the continuity of his time in positions of power. Such a leader simply could not exist in the United States today. Americans do not allow commanders, military or otherwise, to remain in the highest-level positions for decades. There are reasons for this—both political and experiential. Not since J. Edgar Hoover has the federal government allowed a longtime public servant to amass such levels of shadowy influence.

Despite my initial jealousy of Suleimani’s freedom to get things done quickly, I believe such restraint is a strength of the U.S. political system. A zealous and action-oriented mindset, if unchecked, can be used as a force for good—but if harnessed to the wrong interests or values, the consequences can be dire. Suleimani is singularly dangerous. He is also singularly positioned to shape the future of the Middle East.
https://foreignpolicy.com/gt-essay/irans-deadly-puppet-master-qassem-suleimani/

STANLEY MCCHRYSTAL

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

goon project: opening a deep fried mantu stand at the helmand state fair

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

air supremacy is a drug

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Unironically, good reporting from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/22/middleeast/iran-medical-shortages-intl/index.html

quote:

Iranians are paying for US sanctions with their health

My aunt almost didn't find antibiotics after a surgery in ~2009 because of this poo poo. It's not new and it's getting worse again.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1112120835932897281

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

oh hey randompaul, long time no see.

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

is that the same Haftar that used to live in Langley?

yup

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.


who is this chucklefuck? dont know his significance from the twitter bio

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

I've been worrying about this for awhile.

Politically, it's the best time for them to bait Iran to try to close Hormuz. If my fears come true, it'll be naval fuckery or they'll probably hit some recently designated "terrorist" revolutionary guard targets, and keep doing it, waiting for Iran to attack planes as justification for a larger retaliation. There's a lot of arguments for it if you're a total imbecile or sociopath. Both of which run the administration, especially looking at Venezuela.

At the least Israel, KSA, & UAE have been lobbying USA for air strikes for a decade. After Syria, Israel is especially emboldened to strike Iranian assets.

They've been working for months to get Saudi/UAE to offset Iranian production as they were waiting for the final waivers to expire (good to note that Iran doesn't refine). That minimizes the perceived impact to supply, even when prices go up. (There's still "illicit trade" that's affected like China & Turkey - Iran. But US policy would be to ignore it, anyway, so "gently caress 'em.") An attack would drive up prices and, provided that Saudi/UAE infrastructure is OK and they're able to control Iranian interference with oil supply chain, which is something they would bet on from idiotic overconfidence. So here assuming "the plan works", Saudi, UAE, and insurance companies pocket $ with the world footing the bill.

I'm sure Trump wants the distraction, too. Whatever battle at sea/air would be an American victory and that's all he would care about.

France & UK are too busy to care. Russia benefits. Only China pays some price, which is punishment for even working with Iran.

Congress would do fuckall. If you frame the war as retaliation, I'm sure republicans & most congressional dems would support it thanks to foreign influence. I have 0 faith in Dem leadership here.

E: Bibi just won and probably feels like he has a mandate. He can finally deliver what Israel has wanted for a decade. MBS is, well, a complete idiot with 0 foresight.

guidoanselmi has issued a correction as of 09:04 on May 6, 2019

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

A lot depends on Iran's assumption of American willingness to fight.

I hope I'm wrong, but I personally believe Bolton, KSA, UAE will conduct real false flag attacks to force a pointless US first strike.

If they assume America would have a willingness to engage in combat with heavy losses and war, they'll respond indirectly in Iraq.

If they don't think American's have a willingness to fight even following a US strike on Iranian soil, they would do actions that would force America to reconsider further engagement. I can think of a few things:
- Sinking the carrier and they can probably do it anywhere in the Gulf
- Capturing as many US POWs in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria
I honestly don't know how the US would respond, but probably persistent bombing campaign against any/all targets and an Iraq-style no-fly zone. Simply put, Trump will lose his fascist base if he does not "hurdur glass parking lot !!11!" If that happens, all bets are off because Iran might want to use any assets before they get bombed. All in all, it really pushes an Iranian decision toward a major, multi-theater response to overwhelm US planning and resources.

All of this is incredibly stupid, but again, we have incredibly stupid people calling the shots.

The cherry-on-top: Unless democrats want to hand Trump a win, they need to stop things now. They won't though, so it's more self-inflicted wounds for liberals domestically.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

THS posted:

How long will it take to capture Washington DC? 2 days
Will Trump be killed? Yes
Total American civillian casualties: 500 dead
Total military casualties America: 3000 dead
Total military casualties Iran: 15 dead
Will the US army regulars hold the lines? No
Will the Marines fight to the end? No
Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes
Will Trump launch attacks on Puerto Rico? Yes
Will Trump launch attacks on Cuba? No
-If yes; will Cuba retaliate harshly? Yes
Will Trump sacrifice Washington DC (gas/nuke it)? No
Will Puerto Rico make a grab for independence? Yes
Will Israel do anything silly like try for land? Yes
Will Trump burn the natural gas fields? Yes
How long will Iran be occupying the United States? ~15 years
Will the Great Satan war catalyze increased terrorism in Iran?No
In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good

inshallah, azizam

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Someone should tell CNN about Churchill and Bangladesh

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

This is the one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-270_Moskit

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

i'm guessing it was iran as they figure everyone is too chickenshit to escalate.

no real harm to anyone, hope the sailors are enjoying their tea.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

BTW not reported in western press


Funny how Iran's always the bad guy, right?

edit: another source. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-says-platform-caught-fire-124611887.html

Ok, was reported I guess.

guidoanselmi has issued a correction as of 15:32 on Jun 13, 2019

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.


IMHO it probably was Iran. Different leaders with different alignments have been on the record that "if we're not allowed to trade, no one gets to trade." They've probably made the calculation that there won't be any substantial reprisals from the US - especially if these attacks are so minor in scale that no one is injured and the sailors get to have some tea afterwards. Namely, any minor action that might ensue still poses less threat than lack of goods, high prices, unemployment, etc. while the government is still dealing with some of the worst flooding in recent history. Despite the German visit and some optimism about Instex, Khomenei has been really dismissive of it as a meaningful response to the US's rogue state behavior. I'm saying this as my family in Europe is sending necessary medical supplies to my family in Iran because of these idiotic secondary sanctions.

That being said, Iran has just cause - especially if they were just attacked the day before.

Even if it's UAE, KSA, or anyone else - it's not like they'll do poo poo about it without the US doing something first. It could be staged and I'd easily believe it, but I'd put my money on the opposite.

In other news, Iran did release a US resident accused of spying as a carrot of sorts: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48593391 again proving it's the Most Morale Islamic Hegemon instead of Khashogging him.

e: Also worth identifying the absurd arrogance of KSA/UAE. Iran has been willing to have talks with them but they're too intransigent and stubborn.

guidoanselmi has issued a correction as of 21:40 on Jun 13, 2019

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Fast Luck posted:

IMHO it probably was not Iran.

Whichever way, asserting Iran's right to self-defense from inhumane sanctions is a better position to take than clinging to the hope they didn't do it if the media relents and believes in the administration.

Precisely because of idiot democrats like

https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1139253097220456448

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

"Self-defense" doesn't work if you can't claim credit for an attack, and the US/Saudis are chomping at the bit for some kind of military action against Iran that will make their situation even worse. This sort of analysis doesn't make any sense on its face, especially when this doesn't really count as a tit-for-tat attack. If it was an attack on infrastructure that would be tit-for-tat, not an attack on a Japanese ship.

I don't know what analysis you're referring to here if you're expecting me to defend or justify it.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

I was wrong - they were not given tea.

https://twitter.com/PressTV/status/1139226592167780352

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.


https://twitter.com/allushiii/status/1141713794802040833

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/world/middleeast/iran-us-drone.html

quote:

Congressional Democrats emerged from the president’s classified briefing in the Situation Room and urged Mr. Trump to de-escalate the situation. They called on the president to seek congressional authorization before taking any military action.

“This is a dangerous situation,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi said. “We are dealing with a country that is a bad actor in the region. We have no illusions about Iran in terms of their ballistic missile transfers, about who they support in the region and the rest.”

pieces of poo poo. each and every one of them.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

haven’t listened in cuz I’m on my phone.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iranfrontpage/status/1142414401431117824

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

todays farsi lesson: im guessing he probably used the term "aghab oftadeh" which literally translates to "fallen behind" and is pejorative. colloquially, it can mean mental retardation but also represents individuals/peoples who can't keep up with the times.

e: or i guess he didn't say it at all and western media are just riling trump?

https://twitter.com/SinaToossi/status/1143516480430071811

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

The Houthis still occupy southern Najran province btw.

mashallah.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Taintrunner posted:

It's a nice gun, I'll give you that. But the engravings give you no tactical advantage whatsoever, unless you were planning to auction it off as a collectors item.

psh, it's a sweet DLC skin.

and

Darkman Fanpage posted:

what a loving cucked nation

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Probably MANPAD? I don't know what countermeasures the Reapers have. Per the below, I suspect they may not carry much. I think there's a mass trade off for adding countermeasure systems vs loiter time/payload - and having the latter may be more cost beneficial given their missions.

wiki posted:

In June 2015, a study by the USAF's Scientific Advisory Board identified several improvements for operating the Reaper in contested airspace; adding readily available sensors, weapons, and threat detection and countermeasures could increase situational awareness and enable riskier deployments. Suggestions included a radar warning receiver (RWR) to know when it's being targeted, air-to-air and miniature air-to-ground weapons, manned-unmanned teaming, multi-UAV control, automatic take-offs and landings, and precision navigation and timing systems to fly in GPS-denied areas. Another idea was redesigned ground control stations with user-friendly video game-like controllers and touchscreen maps to access data without overwhelming operators.[29][30]

Nice primer: https://www.aviationtoday.com/2012/02/01/countering-manpads/

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

OhFunny posted:

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1173436601176866817?s=19

Some blatant bulltshit here. How could Iranian cruise missiles or drones have been fired from Iran over the most heavily used waterway in the world into Saudi Arabia without anyone noticing.

this is some profoundly lovely journalism.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

BULBASAUR posted:

This has been an interesting weekend for my extended family in Kurdistan and Baghdad

May they have the fortune to not live in interesting times.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

The problem with the F-35 this whole time is that we've been getting our steel frames from Turkey and not Damascus.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

The silver lining of all of this is that Valley of the Wolves: Syria will be another great action movie. I really hope they can get Gary Busey again.

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

yall just need to drink some cola turka

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YsrKy2z2T8

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

drop cola turka not bombs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTKZNYsADfc

guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

oh yeah, thanks for the reminder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yHbAhFnfrA

really hurts the ears.

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guidoanselmi
Feb 6, 2008

I thought my ideas were so clear. I wanted to make an honest post. No lies whatsoever.

Unless Russia wants to go full Afghanistan and topple Assad, they'll need to something to maintain the pretense of assuring Syria's territorial integrity.

Anyone have updated maps?

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