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bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

GalacticAcid posted:

I want Assad to win the war quickly on all fronts

lmao he is

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bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Raskolnikov38 posted:

okay it makes sense that they would be driven by turks but why is erdogan sending his tank corps in to die by airstrike

well if the tank corps in one place is getting blown up by the russian air force it means tank corps in another place is probably going to have clear skies

or erdogan miscalculated

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Atrocious Joe posted:

The coalition behind the Syrian government is literally held together by a shared desire not to be exterminated or removed from Syria.

Also two genius brains had a phone call. Everytime these two talk great things seem to happen.

https://twitter.com/JuddPDeere45/status/1233444364648689670?s=20
https://twitter.com/JuddPDeere45/status/1233444514590793729?s=20

best friends with erdogan?

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Gaupo Guacho posted:

weren't these guys fighting alongside hezbollah and the irgc but now theyre desecrating mosques? leaving aside how demented it is for a russian soldier to say 'heil hitler'

heritage, not hate

lots of russians fought for hitler too

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Al-Saqr posted:

Reports coming out that apparently that warehouse had tons of explosive ammonium nitrate that wasn’t supposed to be there lol

https://twitter.com/timourazhari/status/1290710100697653248?s=21

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qa7uLxu0XAc

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Penisaurus Sex posted:

Lebanon's about to not have an economy anymore so my guess is that person already fled.

Port superintendent escaped via air.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

i say swears online posted:

The man's on his way to being the king of Saudi Arabia and basically butchered a reporter and got away with it.

Dumbest is probably the dumbest thing to call MBS. This is not a feeble man. He is playing the pan Arab game with Russia and the US because he needs their financial and military support post crowning. This man is thinking in the sense of decades if not hundreds of years.

thank u for this

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

he was bought for 1,800 pounds?

he went cheap

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

ToxicAcne posted:

How was Turkish Secularism undone so badly in the past few years? Did Turkish Secularism's attachment to Ethnonationalism have anything to do with that?

I'd have to look into it more, and I don't know much about Turkish politics, but I think that the standard bearer of secularism, the military and most importantly the general staff, hasn't done the image of secularism any favors.

How many Turkish governments have fallen because of a direct coup or other indirect means by the military brass under the cover of protecting "Kemalism"?

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Plutonis posted:

Does Azerbaijan has territorial claims to Southern Azerbaijan? Seems like the next thing to go after now that they got NaKa

Azerbaijan must seize its clay!

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Judakel posted:

How common was slavery in Libya prior to the civil war that resulted in Gaddafi's ouster and execution?

Obama ensured the return of the free market to libya and an end to burdensome regulations

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008


if I were Iran, I'd put every resource into developing nuclear weapons and delivery systems because that is the only way to stop this stuff

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

human garbage bag posted:

the entire purpose of these attacks is to show iran that israel has agents deep in their nuclear program, which would deter iran from actually trying to develop a weapon because israel would know and launch a preemptive strike.

even more reason to expand and harden the nuclear program.

and I think the purpose of the attacks is to cause damage, not some elaborate display of deterrence

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008


quote:

"The CBS data emphasize the strategic importance of a responsible immigration policy that will safeguard Israel's interests as a Jewish and democratic state," he said.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008


narrow political objectives and regional antagonisms have really, really done a number on the legitimacy of nuclear nonproliferation. it has been made abundantly clear that if you want to protect yourself, you must develop nuclear weapons. the cost of not having nuclear weapons is far higher than having them.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

gradenko_2000 posted:

Critical support for the Iranian nuclear program to bring cheap, non fossil fuel energy to their citizens

perversely, the only way to do this is to develop nuclear weapons.

the original wager of the global nonproliferation treaties was that the signatories, of which Iran was one, would be free to construct a domestic nuclear industry complete with reprocessing as long as weapons development was foresworn. political developments however have made clear that the only way to construct a domestic nuclear industry is to first develop nuclear weapons.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Atrocious Joe posted:

The government of Ethiopia finally crossed the line, personally annoying the New York Times
https://twitter.com/MarksSimon/status/1393171127195815936?s=20

to be fair, it was a mistake in the first place to give someone from the New York Times accreditation as a journalist

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008


quote:

Instead of shutting down after the insurgent takeover, the Sher Khan Bandar complex has remained operational, with tacit understandings reached between the Taliban and Tajikistan, according to local traders. Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen said the group had reached out to the governments of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan after taking over several border areas in June.

“We informed all these governments and assured them that the routine work of the border, the customs, will be running as before,” Mr. Shaheen said in an interview. “Even the staff members of the customs, we have not changed them, we told them: Do your work as it was. We haven’t even changed the stamps. The reason is that we don’t want to create problems for businessmen, for traders, for common people.”

Customs revenue from trade via Sher Khan Bandar, which used to run in the tens of millions of dollars, now accrues to the Taliban, Mr. Shaheen added. “Now, it is our area, so they should go to us,” he said. “Businessmen are very happy now. They say, before we had to grease the palms of officials, but now everything goes smoothly.”

quote:

“The tax that used to be taken by the government is now taken by the Taliban—but the Taliban charge a smaller amount,” he said.

quote:

Before the 2001 U.S. invasion, Tajikistan provided the most determined support of any Central Asian nation to the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance led by ethnic Tajik commander Ahmad Shah Massoud.

“In the past, Tajikistan had concerns about the Taliban, but now Tajikistan doesn’t have any problem with the Taliban,” said Abdul Ahad Kakar, a member of the Kunduz provincial council in Afghanistan. “If there wasn’t an understanding between them, the goods would not have been permitted to import.”

The American administration of the past 20 years is making the Taliban look really good. Aside from that though, the Taliban is doing all the things you need to do to take and maintain control: make peace with the neighbors, keep disruption to a minimum, fight corruption, and lower taxes. These are exactly the things the Americans should have done and needed to do but due to the structure of the occupying force and the political factors, could never do.

bedpan has issued a correction as of 08:03 on Jul 6, 2021

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

The USA was the unwitting agent behind ending the long running tension between Tajikistan and the Taliban. We couldn't have screwed up more if we tried.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

gradenko_2000 posted:

The Taliban: lower taxes, ease of business, friendly foreign policy

Fiscally liberal, socially conservative

iirc, two lessons come down from the ages as to how to hold onto occupied or conquered territory:

1. Maintain and continue the local power structures, traditions, laws, and customs
2. Reduce taxes and impositions

there is an optional third lesson, establish cities and send colonies, which Alexander the Great made famous with "Alexandria," now known in Afghanistan as Kandahar. Had George W. wanted to tame Afghanistan, he would have obeyed lessons 1&2. If he wanted to also conquer Afghanistan, he should have moved himself and the government structure to Kandahar or Kabul. George W. Bush did none of these things. It is not impossible to invade and control Afghanistan. The area is a strategic crossroads and armies have poured in from the north, west, and south. And not without success. Both Babur and Alexander numbered Afghanistan as one of their many conquests.

Someone in the Taliban is paying close attention to presenting a better option than the current government. I don't know how long the Afghan state will last but it can't be long.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

ToxicAcne posted:

Why is the NYT whining so hard about the Afghanistan withdrawal? I thought it was basically bipartisan consensus at this point seeing as that Trump started this. I also see alot of comparisons to Vietnam as well and it seems like the revisionist history of the Vietnam war has become dominant in US media.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

comedyblissoption posted:

theyre angling for canceling the withdraw and doing another "surge"

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

indigi posted:

do ISIS and the Taliban have beef over theology or is it just gonna be power struggle?

I don't think ISIS has a base for there to be a power struggle. Also, the Taliban are homegrown. ISIS is a foreign organization.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Flavahbeast posted:

If the Taliban are no longer persecuting Shia Hazara as a matter of course then that's going to be a sticking point. Best case scenario, it's actually true and ISIS siphons off most of the psychos then loses. Probably too optimistic though

from the reports that are drippling out, it seems like this generation of Taliban has a very competent foreign policy and are able to skillfully navigate the domestic situation to gain territory with a minimum of expense and damage. the statebuilding they are already doing will serve them well once the government in Kabul finally falls. there isn't going to be a northern alliance like the last time this happened.

Top City Homo posted:

ISIS is US foreign occupation of afghanistan under new flag

drat you are right. the US is going to prop up a network of lunatic terrorists (ISIS in Afghanistan) against the legitimate government (the Taliban). Again.

bedpan has issued a correction as of 23:13 on Jul 9, 2021

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Jose posted:

its insane to me how often empires stick their dick into Afghanistan only to turn around in defeat every single time

afghanistan has been surrounded by empires for the past 2000 years. the empires are unable to resist the temptation and fall time and time again.

Afghanistan has been conquered before. Alexander did it. Babur did it. Those are tough shoes to fill though.

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

etalian posted:

when you rage quit the server.

they left gave away all their high level gear and expensive houses though before they left

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Kandahar is controlled by the Taliban now. Is the afghan government going to even make it to 9/11 or will they collapse before then?

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Al-Saqr posted:

Can you provide a source or link? I cant find anything on twitter because it’s full of idiot Hindutva Psychos spewing fake news.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/12/afghanistan-taliban-kandahar-prison-police-ghazni-live-updates

Al Jazeera is claiming it as of several hours ago

quote:

“Previously, the Taliban had breached the Kandahar prison in 2008 and 2011, those breaches also led to the escape of hundreds of prisoners.”

lmao

bedpan has issued a correction as of 10:49 on Aug 12, 2021

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008


they couldn't even last the weekend

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Conspiratiorist posted:

Cuba is much easier logistically but hard to justify internationally. Venezuela otoh has the right rhetoric already in place but would be a bleeding nightmare to execute.

sounds like we should invade cuba to secure the logistical routes for the venezuelan invasion

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008


peace prize winners are sick people

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

PawParole posted:

If Ethiopia falls apart the smaller states are doomed.

Gumuz will be annexed by Oromia or Amhara especially for the dam, Harar by Oromia, Gambella probably by South Sudan and SNNP who have splintered into 3 with 2 new states for Sidama & South West left confused. Oromia & the Somali Region would have to slug it out for Dire Dawa.

https://twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1457425613501906946


Big gains if true.

My gut says its more than likely true based on the increasingly dire calls by the U.S. embassy for Americans to get the hell out of dodge - plus the continuing flood of other countries doing the same thing.

from the OOB posted earlier (admittedly outdated now), this means that the western command is down to zero divisions

needless to say that is not good for the ENDF

bedpan has issued a correction as of 03:04 on Nov 8, 2021

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008


lost all legitimacy when they banned Gadaffi's kid from running for President

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Kosovo Palestine Western Tigray is Serbia

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

TeenageArchipelago posted:

Was getting ready to argue with someone online about how sanctions are a form of violence, and found this article from 2000 about how depleted uranium and sanctions absolutely devastated Iraq and now I don't even care to argue with someone online for no reason

https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/sa/sa_may00anv01.html

1/5 children born in southern Iraq in 1999 were born with birth defects. The number of children with cancer rose to 130,000 in 1997 from 32 in 1990.

Death to this demon cracker nation

hmm, have those children considered voting?

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Al-Saqr posted:

America wants the nuclear deal but doesnt want to back down on any of the sanction they implemented when they backed out of the deal in the first place lol great satan indeed

Sounds normal. "Nuclear Nonproliferation" was never anything more than stopping outsider countries from developing either the only way to reliably protect themselves (nuclear weapons) or power themselves to build an economy

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Iran developing and deploying nuclear weapons is the only thing that will secure them against Israel and the United States

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Ardennes posted:

I would assume the point is less Iran but the US to have leverage over the Saudis/UAE (and OPEC) over oil negotiations to undercut the Russians and keep inflation under control.

im sorry but energy costs don't factor into inflation calculations because energy costs are fixed and someone can't readily consume more or less in response to inflating or deflating prices

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008


I read "Public TV Doc" and thought this was going to be about Dr. Oz

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bedpan
Apr 23, 2008


you what wasn't lost on her though?

the spaghetti and meat balls!

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