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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Desiree's swimsuit confuses me.

James' pecs frighten me.

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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Oh yeah,

Pony: Michael
Poison: Bradley

Like I don't know if I can actually think of any under 21-year olds that have been good at/positive for the game but I'm gonna take a chance here.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I'm really hoping that the two Stephenies and Laurel end up on the same tribe, because nobody can vote for Stephenie Johnson without being very express in who they're voting for.

I want all three of them to survive deep just to see what Probst is gonna do when he has to differentiate between them.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I've been reading the pre-cast interviews and I love that anytime someone gets asked 'any ethical boundaries like lying, etc.?' almost all of them immediately go 'yes but I'm not gonna stoop to Varner's level'. To be fair, Game Changers was the last season they watched so it'd be fresh in their minds.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

STAC Goat posted:

Well Big Brother has managed to have "Why don't you kill yourself like you father did?", "That's why your mother abandoned you, because youre trash", and outright racist bullying. So things can always go lower.

I mean, Corrine and Will Sims got pretty darn close there.

And while she's not exactly reviled, Courtney Yates made fun of a miscarriage.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Spergatory posted:

Jacob is a new floor for superfans on Survivor. So, you know, at least he can say he pushed the boundaries of the game!

I can't believe we actually have a superfan that played a worse game than Max Powers.

I kinda feel bad that Michael already has a target on his back just because he's fit and good looking, but I guess that's no worse than Donathan having a target on his back because of how he looks and speaks.

The difference is that Donathan could go far, while Michael will likely be the second or third post-merge boot unless he has Sebastian/Chris as shields.

I don't think Donathan has a winning game, however. He could be a fan favourite, but he can't sell a FTC story.

Hard to get a read on the girls so far. Stephenie seems smart. Kellyn was good at making people work together during the puzzle. Morgan and Jenna have potential. The rest just kind of exist for now.

ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 13:20 on Mar 5, 2018

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I hope they have a Rubik's cube challenge and someone solves it in like, 8 seconds.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Yeah, as soon as Dom/Wendell/Morgan turned on their own, they gave all the power to the other four. Morgan should have tried her best to rope Libby into voting an old orange out.

The new orange looks more interesting. Because of how Ghost Island works it'll either be 5-3 minority or a 4-4 split. But I think it's unlikely that Michael will get sent to Ghost Island unless rocks, so the minority will have an idol to play if they can anticipate the vote. If they do go to tribal I think the vote will be Stephanie, because they'd want the guys for challenges and Stephanie is craftier. Or they could do the dumb move and try to vote out Michael for being a 'physical threat' (which is dumb because physical threats will almost always get vulnerable at some point post-merge). I'm not sure who would get idoled out though if they play it correctly... probably Bradley because he's complaining so much. But I could see Chelsea going home because it's three episodes in, she hasn't had a confessional or any presence, so I don't see her lasting.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Stephenie's been the most competent player so far. You also have Kellyn, Libby, Angela and Jenna as talking heads with some content.

There's a slight slant towards the guys, but more because Domenick/Chris/Jacob/Donathan are such big personalities.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Pretty sure the invisible woman is Chelsea.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
The most blatant 'production tells them to say this' is when the producers told the Upolus to laugh during the Jack and Jill reward that they 'won'.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Lone Goat posted:

This is partly why Sophie Clarke is one of my favourite winners, because she had no time for that poo poo.

Sophie winning is precisely what makes South Pacific good. Dismantling Probst's sausage dream by outlasting Ozzy, Jim, Keith, Coach, Albert, Brandon, Rick, etc.... was brilliant. I have never been prouder of a jury.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Well, most of the time characters aren't that relevant - there's a reason JP from last season got four confessionals in total.

And it can be hard to edit the 'very likable threat' if they're not doing a lot of strategy talk. You could have written off Brett from MvG as being near unimportant but then at top 6 he suddenly got the 'this guy's a huge jury threat we have to eliminate him' discussion.

And of course, there's Michele. And possibly Natalie White, even though probably half the reason she won is because she was sitting next to Russell.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I'm glad that Michael and Steph both stayed, but it's going to be tough for them and Jenna now. Their best hope (outside of finding another idol) is to swing Sebastian and Chelsea. They could flip, because both sides would desperately need their numbers and it gives them some power.

I think it was a good bluff (and I'd have loved to see Bradley go). Michael's made himself a bigger target now though, because now they know he's got some brain behind that brawn. He's almost definitely gone if they go to tribal again.

Also, I'm surprised the Naviti tribe didn't consider just going to split their votes between Domenick and Chris.

ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 10:43 on Mar 15, 2018

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I mean, there are a million ways to discuss how the move 'could' have gone, but in honesty at the end of the day it was always gonna be a roll of the dice. Michael's gambit was probably more than what 90% of us could have come up with.

Even if he goes out next week, I think he's a pretty impressive player so far.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

IcePhoenix posted:

I think that as superfans they know that unless you have a suuuuuper toxic player on your tribe that you're 10000% sure has no idol, you never throw a challenge because 100% sure you're safe is infinitely better than 99% sure you're safe. And even though they're obviously two factions going against each other, Dom and Chris are far from toxic, or at least that's my read from what we've seen.

Oh not talking about throwing the challenge, more like when Chris approached them about splitting the vote 3-3 against Dom and Wendell, my initial thought was, 'well if you like Wendell... why not just split it between Dom and Chris when you do have to vote?' You guarantee yourself safety, and you knock out either an abrasive personality or someone who's scheming way too much. The downside is that you pretty much burn Wendell and Angela for good, but it's not like those two were going to be eager to work with any of the majority long term anyway after they got burned last tribal.

I don't know if there are any all-star players right now, but Michael and Steph seem above the bar (even if they're in bad positions). Kellyn, Laurel, and Libby all have potential game.

Dugong posted:

I thought this episode was a really great episode of TV but the players must be really frustrated with the ghost island mechanics. Not being consistent about if players return for tribal and drawing rocks makes it even more of a random element.

Michael is a pretty amazing speaker for an 18 year old. I’m sort of thinking he did some weird double bluff and forged fake documents to send to CBS when applying :stare:

He sells real estate, so he's definitely got some speaking chops. He's way too dangeous to leave around for too long which is why I don't think he'll make it too far, but I'm enjoying having him still in the mix.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Zesty posted:

We're 4 boots in. If anyone gets any better thread titles, announce them anytime and I'll PM a mod.

What pithy sound bites do we have yet?

'Sad.'
'I dissent.'
'Don't trust the cute blonde.'

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Man, on reflection, Bradley's alliance got really lucky that Kellyn was the one sent to Ghost Island. Bradley would have played, no question. No idea about the other three, but I think Sebastian would have played, possibly Chelsea too.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Something I'd low-key like to see is Michael and Chris making it to the merge, and Chris trying to buddy up with Michael like 'we're two alpha bros we gotta stick together' and Michael realizing what a massive tool Chris is and playing him like a fiddle. Bonus points if he Sarahs Chris into giving Michael an advantage.

It'd be a cute subterfuge of the 'pretty girl strings the boy along' trope.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
The Shirin-Will stuff in the middle was just uncomfortable, but it's a breath of fresh air compared to Koah Rong and Game Changers.

It's okay. Not great, but I think the winner was fine, and I don't dislike them like I did Sarah.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
The Varner-Zeke 'reunion' takes the cake for that one.

Apparently Varner had an interview with Scot from Koah Rong recently-ish and he's still a pile of crap.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I was okay with Worlds Apart because well... the only thing that would have saved that season was Mike or Carolyn winning, and that happened. The editors gave us effective villains to root against, but at least they didn't win. Plus it gave us America-loving Hali, Fan Favourite Sierra Dawn Thomas, and other... characters.

Koah Rong was actively worse for me because you have the Alecia bullying at the start, and then everything in the middle. It was only palatable when Scot/Jason were split up, and then after they were both taken out.

Also I liked Michele ever since she used the word 'malarkey'.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Lone Goat posted:

These are good things??

Like 3/4ths of Gabon, they're basically inoffensive trainwrecks. Plus we got 'I do not consent' out of Hali when she came back, the spiritual ancestor of 'I dissent'.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
This episode was kinda boring, but it was pretty expected. The editors not showing one tribe at all before the immunity challenges is becoming a big flag as to who's gonna lose. Ghost Island is eating too much time.

I was convinced Jenna was going home since Michael and Steph had more time devoted to them, but there was really no reason for the majority to vote her out, since she really is no threat to them at all.

Also, tribe swap with 15 people left? Either there's a 7-8 split, a 7-7 split with someone being sent to Exile Ghost Island and coming back to the losing tribe afterwards, or it's a three-way split to 5.

ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 07:02 on Mar 22, 2018

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Also someone pointed out that everybody that's been referred to as Stephanie on the show (so not LaGrossa since she was Stephenie) has been the 5th person eliminated in their season, which is hilarious.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Vernacular posted:

Can't say I'm surprised we're getting a Pagonging. Significantly higher likelihood of that happening when production keeps them at two tribes at the swap rather than splitting them into three, which has been demonstrated time and time again to be the more interesting way of going about things. My guess is that they just didn't want to add a fourth beach for financial reasons.

Bummer to see Stephanie go as she seemed like a genuinely good player.

I actually don't find the split to three that interesting since it usually means either one tribe gets decimated (Angkor) or another tribe gets no focus because they never go to Tribal. The best/worst thing that comes out of a split to three is that there's another idol to find. And usually somebody gets swap screwed as a result (Roark/Ali, Sandra, etc.).

Malolo would really appreciate the swap though since they're now down 6-9. It would really stink for them if it was a three-way split and all the tribes were 3-2 Naviti, however.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

blue squares posted:

But this didnt happen

Two weeks in a row Naviti took up the entire post-reward segment til the immunity challenge (well, disregarding Ghost Island). When the 'Next Time' previews show scenes from the Malolo camp that didn't appear at all by the time Immunity is on the line, it's a blaring sign that they're going to Tribal.

IcePhoenix posted:

If there's a three way split I'm assuming they'll do a double elimination episode. They have to do two of them to make up for the two extra players, right?

I'm also assuming that the merge will come at 13, since that's the first time Dom's advantage can be used.

Nah, the eliminations will still progress fine even with a three-way split. There's always an accelerated rate of tribals towards the end.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
The Chris-Dom feud pretty much meant there was gonna be no lasting Naviti peace anyway. They couldn't keep it together for an alliance of 5, let alone 9.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I mean, it's kind of hard to say that Chris is just a byproduct of his age when Michael is right there.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Yeah, pre-merge Game Changers is great. I'd actually say skip the last pre-merge boot (which should be right after the cast gets whittled to 14). Just read what happens online, because there's some really ugly and heartbreaking stuff in there.

Post-merge, it's.... middling. If you got tired of advantages in HHH, GC might not be your cup of tea. There's some good stuff in there, but nothing spectacular. The season's kinda frontloaded in my opinion.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
South Pacific is pretty great on a re-watch. You feel a little bad for Edna, though.

I still wish we'd get one good Asian-American female player at some point. The best we've seen in terms of standing was Becky, and she was kinda carried to F4.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I like that at least half of the top ten seasons have female winners.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Even Michael voted for James, which was really weird. I guess it was a lost cause and Angela gave no impression of swaying right before TC?

I also find it interesting that Kelly and Desiree were pitching to get rid of James instead of Michael. They've seen first hand that Michael is dangerous, and they know Angela has a bond with James. If you want to sway someone who's on the edge, pitching to vote out their ally isn't the best appeal. It worked out for them, at least.

OG Malolo is prooobably sunk come merge, unless the Dom/Chris feud manages to split up the OG Naviti for enough votes that new mini-alliances form. I think a combo of Michael/Laurel/Donathan/Jenna, and then pull in Domenick and whatever allies he has. They'd probably have to sacrifice Libby since Dom and Bradley don't trust her, though.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Well if the Malolos end up as the swing votes, there's some wriggle room either way. Jenna can sidle up to Sebastian so they could take the Chris side of the vote, or Laurel/Donathan can make use of their bond with Domenick/Wendell.

If I were them, I'd aim to oust Kellyn/Desiree/Bradley first. They're the most steadfast on the 'Naviti forever' slogan, so breaking that up gives them a lot more options.

I don't know if Michael's gonna stay Malolo strong, to be honest. He's sided with Naviti for two votes now (even if he was in survival mode), his closest ally (Brendan) is gone, and he's spent more time with Kellyn/Desiree than anybody else other than Jenna. He could just side with Naviti to guarantee himself protection til they crack from within.

If this was an edit-based season I'd say that Malolo would stay strong since everyone left there aside from Libby's got good visibility, but the season has been taking out a lot of big players, so who knows at this point.

ApplesandOranges fucked around with this message at 07:55 on Mar 29, 2018

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Or, Domenick knew he needed allies, which meant staying Naviti strong, and he had already started bonding with Donathan. So he had to push Libby as a more attractive target.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Propaganda Machine posted:

What? No. Libby blindsided him/them.

So did Donathan. Yeah Libby gave Morgan some hope (and her parting remark doesn't help Libby's case) but James was the lynchpin behind the strike on Morgan.

I don't really seen new green tribe losing next week (they're pretty stacked), so odds are either Libby or Michael is going home next week anyway. I imagine there'll probably be an idol found on the green tribe beach too before they merge.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Spergatory posted:

Maximum comedy option; Yanuya tries to throw the challenge so they can vote out Chris, Chris is completely unaware and somehow solo beast modes them to victory anyway.

Isn't this what happened on Cagayan? Cliff was the target but because there was a hoop challenge they avoided tribal council despite trying very hard to throw it.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
My guesses on the next boot, depending on who loses:

Malolo: It's hard to see why Michael wouldn't be the next boot unless he finds an idol. But I could see Kellyn and Desiree deciding to 'replace' Angela with Michael; they've been together longer, and Michael is someone you could reason with, while Angela is very morality-based. We don't know where the girls stand on Dom v Chris, but if they want to be fluid, then Angela's a detriment to them playing both sides.

Naviti: I honestly can't see it being anyone other than Libby, unless she and Donathan somehow flip Chelsea to vote out, say, Bradley.

Yawhatever: Probably won't lose, but if they do... probably Jenna? Her social game seems to be a bit worse than Laurel, and the boys seem tight. Chris could annoy Wendell enough for him to flip, but he seems laid-back enough to just grin and bear it.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I mean, if Jacob had gone home in the first TC instead of being saved by Ghost Island, there would likely have been a shake-up. Either Gonzalez would have snaked her way in and made some allies, or painted a bigger target on herself.

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ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
They should do a split after the merge and move the contestants back to tribes.

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