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pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

All hail the Needle!

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pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

I hadn't really appreciated this before, but good god look at the shape of that district. gently caress gerrymandering.

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

Saladin Rising posted:

So is the jitter even based on anything, or is it just random? Because with jitter on the needle is moving when there's not even any votes in.
Seriouspost: the more it jitters, the less certain it is about our fates. Right now there are no votes in so it's jittering everywhere.

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

AND THE FIRST WARD GOES TO THE LAMB BY A WHOPPING 35 VOTES! :toot:

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

Mmm, give me that sweet sweet 52% chance of victory. I can taste it already!

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

In my experience, when all the tweets the 538 guys are writing look like that, the chances are not 53%. I don't want to call it, but I'm feeling good about this one.

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

Ague Proof posted:

They're called Sheeple.
I hate you.

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

Well, it's all gone to bloody gently caress. :(

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

This is going to come down to recount territory going by Wasserman's Twitter right now.

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

Saladin Rising posted:

Look at the number of precincts.

Now imagine you have to get 3 people in all of them, in five days.
Some of these precincts have around fifty voters total.

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pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

paternity suitor posted:

I'm baffled by people asking why a dead heat in a Trump +20 matters. Like how broke brained do you have to be to not see how that matters? Democrats now have the green light to run hard everywhere. It doesn't matter to special cynical boys who are smarter than the rest, because they know that nothing matters.
It probably heralds a blue wave regardless, but a +20 swing ending in a narrow loss feels a lot worse than a +20 swing ending in a narrow win. And that feeds back into voter enthusiasm in subsequent races. So the difference does matter a bit.

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