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Crazyweasel
Oct 29, 2006
lazy

I’ve always been a fan of if your risk probability is >50% then you make it a reality and file the opportunity.

“We are going to lose the contract for being overweight, but we have an opportunity to keep it by actually solving the problem!”

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Crazyweasel
Oct 29, 2006
lazy

CarForumPoster posted:

I can win life by not pilfering a uranium rod in my pants is a dumbass way of turning a risk into an :airquote: opportunity :airquote:.

EDIT: Maybe its the mil defense mental framework barking here but opportunities are chances to reduce CPI/SPI below customer expected levels (usually sub 1.0 or at the very least save money/schedule on some subcomponent of the WBS) and likely net some contractual award from it. If your program is CPI 1.25 because of realized risks that you (read: your predecessor) failed to miitigate... successfuly mitigating them to 1.2 doesn't create an opportunity. It means you didnt do your job successfully (perhaps because it was impossible to do so).

Opportunities are traceable to exceeding expectations in the contract measurable by CPI/SPI/incentive award realization. Else, they're risks.

IMO it’s how you show your AOP. If you are more likely than not than to blow your budget because of something, or lose a contract(let’s say an option to move past pre-EMD or something) because you don’t think you can meet spec and you want to highlight the impact, then you force the adjustment into the AOP and make the opportunity to claw it back.

I guess this is why I jumped out of Defense before becoming a PM, shell games!!!!

Crazyweasel fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Mar 18, 2023

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