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The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Auspol April - It's all fucking fucked
 
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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quote:

Then there’s UBI. If you advocate UBI — paying everyone an non-means-tested basic income — you’re either a fool, or you have an interest in undercutting wages. That’s why some tech billionaires advocate UBI; it would enable them to slash the wages of their workers without worrying that their employees will starve to death or (more importantly) not be able to buy their products and services.

The problem of UBI advocates from the left though is that they can’t do the maths. To give even a minority of Australians — say, those in the lowest two income quintiles — a basic income would require tens of billions of dollars extra beyond the current cost of all welfare — far more than you’d save from sacking every Social Services bureaucrat. And what about people with special needs, or carers? Do people living in cities get more than people living in country towns? Oh wait, you sacked all the bureaucrats, so even if you wanted some nuance in UBI to reflect different needs, you can’t do it.

And what if the best way to fix poverty isn’t the small-government, individual responsibility approach of UBI (just hand people money and let them do what they want) but through quality education and training or a better health service?

The level of thought that went into writing this is astounding considering how mind-numbingly dumb it is.

* # ¿ Apr 4, 2018 22:46
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# ¿ May 10, 2024 15:31
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Imagine thinking billionaires and CEOs were good people and productive members of society.

* # ¿ Apr 7, 2018 08:43
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Les Affaires posted:

Honestly we should just confiscate all super and replace it with a doubling of the retirement pension (and newstart) and be done with it.

If we had a UBI would we be able to scrap the whole super system? My initial thought is yes, but I haven't really contemplated the impact of a UBI on super before.

* # ¿ Apr 10, 2018 06:55
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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MysticalMachineGun posted:

UBI would absolutely remove the pension, so you could theoretically say super is no longer needed as well. People can just save for retirement under their own steam.

That's kinda what I figured.

JBP posted:

I don't think so. Why would you scrap mandatory, "self funded" retirement for work? It's just asking for a UBI retirement class and a non ubi class (rich fatsos).

Isn't that's pretty much what we have now anyway? Anyone that works in high paying jobs gets a super that can actually support them while everyone else is hosed.

I would assume that any UBI would be high enough to live off through retirement and that anyone who manages to save enough during their working life would have a savings/investment income that would mean that they aren't getting the full UBI anyway. So that could help even out.

But I do see your point, even with a UBI, if you aren't in a position to save money while you are working you get comparatively screwed when you retire. Maybe the UBI should have a built in super component (but this feels like it kinda defeats the whole simplicity of a UBI)? Or you just keep super but scrap all the tax concessions it gets? I just kinda figured that being able to scrap super would be a pretty big selling point to win over businesses (while also really pissing off the super industry :v:)

* # ¿ Apr 10, 2018 07:31
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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JBP posted:

Without even thinking about the billions of dollars in super and the kind of nightmare creature that industry could become if pushed, I reckon UBI just wouldn't give people much bigger incomes to save anyway. It would stop people being on the bones of their arse you'd hope, but you're still working to top up you income. I suppose taking the guess work out of retirees claiming the pension or being self funded might do it, but I don't think taking away people's ability to earn super is a good thing since companies pay for it. You'd imagine UBI would relieve that super burden somewhat.

My grand mental plan for super would be that the company contributes 20% for workers earning under 50k and it slides back to nothing mandatory as you reach a "worker" on idk say $500k

Yeah, it's probably not worth picking the fight with the super industry and pensioners when business seems to have mostly accepted it and pays for it.

I do like your idea of super. One thing I've always thought about super is that a large % of it should just go into a government infrastructure fund that is used to fund nation building projects and pays out a pretty much guaranteed return like a government bond would. Essentially force it into generating assets for the whole community at the same time as paying for peoples retirement. Of course I haven't thought about the complexities and implications of that too much - beyond the obvious risk that all our politicians are giant idiots and will spend it on the worst possible poo poo.

* # ¿ Apr 10, 2018 08:13
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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ewe2 posted:

edit: welp looks like someone wants an election now

https://twitter.com/billshortenmp/status/983496569453404161

I am completely convinced that this is exactly what that man believes.

* # ¿ Apr 11, 2018 23:00
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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quote:

Two years ago, at a state primary school in regional Victoria, the parents of a six-year-old girl named Nelani were told their daughter was no longer welcome.

After a series of violent incidents in which Nelani struck out at classmates and teachers, the school had made a decision: she could no longer attend classes.

Struggling with a combination of mental illness and drug addiction, her parents struggled to process what they were being told.

“It’s like we were there but we weren’t there,” Katherine, Nelani’s mother, tells the Guardian. “We were just, vacant, because we didn’t understand really where they were coming from. All we heard was that our daughter was getting thrown out of the school. It was just like, ‘Wow, she’s six years old, this is so unfair.’”

That meeting could have been a life sentence for Nelani – the beginning of a cycle of conflict and distrust with an education system unable or unwilling to address the barely hidden trauma at the heart of her behaviour.

“It set this precedent of what school was going to be like,” says her father, David.

“She didn’t want to go back to school after that. It completely destroyed any trust she had. For us too, actually. There was a perception that if we got it from one school we’ll get it wherever we go.”

Except they didn’t. Two years later, Nelani, now eight, is spoken about in glowing terms by the teachers, doctors and social workers who poured hundreds of hours of resources into helping bring her and her family back from what they call their “fog”.

Nelani’s new school, Wilmot Road primary, is on the south side of Shepparton, a town of about 63,000 people, two hours north of Melbourne. Statistically among the most disadvantaged schools in Victoria, it is set in a neighbourhood dominated by 1970s-era public housing properties inhabited by disadvantaged families and, increasingly, a booming refugee population.

The Guardian spent a week inside Wilmot and its secondary neighbour, McGuire College, talking to teachers, parents and students to get a close look at the challenges facing Australia’s unequal public school system. A question emerged: how much does it cost to give a disadvantaged child the tools to benefit from an education? And do Australia’s schools have those resources?

Read the whole article here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/14/the-state-school-turning-lives-around-for-disadvantaged-children?CMP=soc_567

* # ¿ Apr 16, 2018 00:24
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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asio posted:

Because most growers are stoners who got into the business to offset personal use costs. All this "black market bikie" poo poo is ... poo poo. Cannabis is too bulky to be worthwhile for the cartoon criminal syndicate the media invented and the greens believe exist. Actual bikies sell meth.

Cannabis is a poor peoples drug. The profit margin is minimal. The growers are mostly indie and the sellers are mostly (what's the class level below working?) poor. Taking those billions and turning it into tax revenue for "prevention" is not the class war masterstroke the greens think it is.

Decriminalise, regulate, home grow, all good. Government monopoly on one of the only industries that reliably keeps people off the streets bad.

Do you have any evidence for any of this or are you just making poo poo up?

* # ¿ Apr 17, 2018 08:00
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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G-Spot Run posted:

Victoria I think has to choose between outdoor dining or smoking, so cafes in the area around work have to declare their allegiance to coffee smokers or brunchers and/or put up stupid clock signs saying when you can eat and when you can smoke.

In Vic you can't smoke anywhere that food is served. https://www2.health.vic.gov.au/public-health/tobacco-reform/smoke-free-areas/outdoor-dining

* # ¿ Apr 17, 2018 08:02
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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JBP posted:

You can still use the clock system can't you? Or was that a perceived loophole?

No idea (I haven't ever heard of the clock system before). That link seems pretty clear cut but I haven't paid too much attention to the changes except to laugh at smokers when they complain.

* # ¿ Apr 17, 2018 10:42
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Domain releases an article on the Melbourne apartment market telling people that:

quote:

The golden rule when buying and selling residential property is that the more heavily supplied the market segment, the more likely it is that prices will fall.

According to a market analysis released this month by Capital Economics, apartment prices in Melbourne could fall 8 per cent this year and by 4 per cent in Sydney.

“The apartment market is struggling,” Mr O’Shaughnessy said. “Buyers are very price sensitive and the owners don’t want to accept the reality of the value of their property.”

While it's somewhat amazing that Domain is even releasing an article containing those quotes (despite the fact they follow them up with poo poo like: "Such buyer-friendly conditions are tossing up opportunities for astute first-home buyers"), here's what's happening in Melbourne at the same time:



Note: This is only showing inner city Melb and only developments of over 50 dwellings. The source is somewhat unknown in terms of reliability but it's the best I could find without in-depth research. Source: http://www.jll.com.au/australia/en-au/Research/Melbourne%20Apartment%20Market%20Commentary%20April%202017.pdf

Now obviously, all the apartments in that graph wont be built if the market tanks, but even so when this poo poo crashes it's going to be absolutely massive.

* # ¿ Apr 18, 2018 09:28
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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The Federal Government will ditch its plan to lift the Medicare levy from 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent. Treasurer Scott Morrison said the measure would ensure the NDIS was fully funded, and would have raised $8 billion over four years from July 2019.

* # ¿ Apr 25, 2018 12:01
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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Westpac's share price dropped a lot today (all the others dropped pretty heavily as well). Here's why:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-26/banking-royal-commission-grills-financial-planning-associations/9698552 posted:

Westpac home lending standards shock analysts; bank says bad loans remain very low

This graph from UBS, from data obtained via the banking royal commission, tells you a lot of the story:


Westpac mortgage customers' debt-to-income ratio

In a separate note, UBS analyses APRA's latest regulatory moves, where the bank regulator asks institutions to develop internal limits on granting loans that would leave customers with debt-to-income ratios above 6x.

"Therefore such a Debt-to-Income limit is likely to have a material impact on credit availability going forward."

The latest loan to income ratios from the bank paint a very different picture, which UBS says suggests it "may not provide an accurate reflection of the customer's financial position."


Loan-to-income ratio

Furthermore, apparently four-out-of-five Westpac mortgage customers spend less than $40,000 a year on living costs beyond their mortgage repayment, with 16 per cent spending less than $20,000. Very frugal people.


Assessed annual living expenses

The UBS conclusion:
"This data raises questions regarding the quality of WBC's $400b mortgage book (70% of its loans). While WBC has undertaken significant work to improve its mortgage underwriting standards over the last 12 months, we expect it and the other majors to further sharpen underwriting standards given the Royal Commission's concerns with Responsible Lending. This could potentially lead to a sharp reduction in credit availability (credit crunch)."

No wonder that investors are taking heed of the UBS "sell" call on Westpac, with the bank's shares off 4.6 per cent to $27.84.

But Westpac has responded, saying its delinquency rate remains low at 0.67 per cent, with a further update due at its half-year results on May 7.

It has also addressed some of the specific issues raised in the PwC report and UBS analysis:

"It has reassessed the 38 loans that PwC believed would fail the standard using both the information on the credit files (which was available to PwC) and other information available to the bank at the time (which was not part of the PwC review). On this basis all the loans would have been approved, apart from one loan (this loan is currently ahead of its repayments)."

"Only four of the loans in the sample are currently greater than 30 days past due, of which only one is greater than 90 days past due. This is well below the portfolio average for delinquencies."

"All of the loans in the sample were originated over 18 months ago and are now well matured. Of the original 420 loans, 90 have already been repaid/refinanced."

Hmmm, yes, this seems responsible and not a good way to destroy the economy.

* # ¿ Apr 26, 2018 11:10
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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When all you've been told your whole life is that "property will only go up, up ,up!" I can see why people would be less than diligent about getting a loan for a house (particularly when pushed by dodgy lenders). Why wouldn't you risk it when it's a sure thing?

This isn't to say they aren't at least partially to blame for their situation when it all goes wrong, but it goes a way to understanding how the situation came about - something that can be pretty important if you actually want to fix the problem.

* # ¿ Apr 26, 2018 22:06
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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I think people seriously underestimate the impact of the "Great Australian Dream" and the potential for our poo poo education system to leave massive knowledge gaps in large parts of the population. Many people that suffer from these gaps then go to "experts" in the hope that they will help them achieve their dream, only to discover that the person they though was supposed to be helping them (with the support of strict regulations) is actually just screwing them and their future.

It's pretty easy to blame someone for not doing their research when you can read, write and do the maths well enough to understand all the bullshit that comes with such a large financial decision.

* # ¿ Apr 28, 2018 08:41
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# ¿ May 10, 2024 15:31
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Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
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I'd fully support a sugar tax if 100% of the proceeds went to programs to improve the health of the poorest parts of society. But that'll never happen cause they'll just use the extra money to fund tax cuts to the rich or politician wage increases.

* # ¿ Apr 30, 2018 21:56
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The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Auspol April - It's all fucking fucked