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Dynasty rankings version 1.0
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May 5, 2018 03:12
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Anything besides draft position have Hurst ahead of/in same tier as Gesicki for you?
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May 5, 2018 03:50
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sourdough posted:Anything besides draft position have Hurst ahead of/in same tier as Gesicki for you? I think all three tight ends are interchangeable, but I suspect by the start of training camp, Gesicki will be my number one tight end. The only edge Hurst has at the moment is draft position. I don't really care for this year's tight end class though. I was much higher on any of the top five tight ends last year than I am any this year.
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May 5, 2018 05:16
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Just read an article saying to devalue David Johnson using statistical analysis based on team w-l record. Truly a #blessed time we live in🙏
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May 5, 2018 19:33
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Sataere posted:Has anyone ever considered making a league where you have to redraft every week? Would that even be feasible? I've brought it up before but people are usually just snarky about it to me so I dropped it  If you want to start one up though I'd love to try it.
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May 5, 2018 20:16
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Spoeank posted:Just read an article saying to devalue David Johnson using statistical analysis based on team w-l record. Forward it to everyone.
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May 5, 2018 20:18
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IcePhoenix posted:I've brought it up before but people are usually just snarky about it to me so I dropped it Isn't there some sort of draft app where every week you pick five players or so and use those for the week? Thought I heard it on the Fantasy Footballers last season. That might be cool. I also wouldn't mind trying a best ball (is that the right term for a league where you draft once and never do anything again as it chooses your best values) league. But hell, I'm in six leagues now and need to pull back. But I won't.
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May 5, 2018 20:43
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Forward it to everyone. https://twitter.com/DFF_Shane/status/992796488282632193 There's some other stuff in there about the line but a lot of it is W-L & SOS
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May 5, 2018 20:47
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Silly Burrito posted:Isn't there some sort of draft app where every week you pick five players or so and use those for the week? Thought I heard it on the Fantasy Footballers last season. That might be cool. Sure but I want a league where nobody else can use my players. Because we drafted them. Like a normal league.
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May 5, 2018 20:56
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Spoeank posted:https://twitter.com/DFF_Shane/status/992796488282632193 This is pretty bad... quote:It’s certainly not egregious to think that DJ can catch lightning in a bottle and finish as the overall RB1 but on average I tend to think that he will finish right outside the first tier of the draft(RB5-6). So you're drafting a player who's floor is the upper half of RB1 and who's ceiling is 2016... and you're saying I shouldn't draft him first overall?  Someone please give me the R^2 value of this chart. quote:McCoy has had several top 10 finishes as a play caller, granted those teams featured two future Hall of Famers in Phillip Rivers and Peyton Manning. McCoy has often been a proponent for a backfield committee, and he may not be as innovative when it comes to crafting a large volume of plays designed to get DJ the ball on plays that favor his skill set. In 2017 McCoy took over as the offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos and failed to stay employed through Thanksgiving. Similarly, this year McCoy will take over an offense void of talent outside David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. I have no idea what he's saying here. He's a top 10 finisher, he loves a backfield, he sucked in Denver, he has two good players. So... expect what exactly?  Probably the best piece of information in the article; arguing that the line is lovely and injury prone and backing it up with real numbers. quote:The right chart above is a breakdown 2018 NFL strength of schedule from Sharp Football Analysis. If you are unfamiliar with this site or how SoS should be measured then be sure to check out this link for an explanation from Warren Sharp. Essentially, the rankings are based on current roster composition, the schedule itself, and current Vegas odds. Again, a common theme here is that Arizona is near the bottom of the pack. Anyone arguing anything based on Strength of Schedule in May should be mocked. quote:At the end of the day, the charts and metrics above are more guides to show that Arizona has an uphill battle to finish with a winning record. For running backs, winning games leads to positive game scripts which correlate to added production consistently. David Johnson is one of, if not the most talented back in the league and his talent will allow him to mask some of the Cardinals shortfalls, to a degree. Ultimately fantasy owners should not expect the same 2016 production from Johnson as he is due for some slight regression. As mentioned before Johnson is more than capable of finishing as the RB1. But his other outcomes can vary significantly based off of team composition. "Due for some slight regression" after he spent an entire season on IR. Thank you for sharing that Spoeank. Beer4TheBeerGod fucked around with this message at 23:30 on May 5, 2018 |
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May 5, 2018 23:25
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As a Cards fan, I can reiterate that the line will be absolute trash, barring some sort of unforeseen large jumps in individual ability and coaching. Beer covered most of the reasons why that article is ridiculous for a player that seems to be going at about #5 right now, but I think the most ridiculous is the game script argument. Putting aside the fact that no one knows for sure how good the Cardinals will be since the NFL is unpredictable, DJ basically plays like a receiver a large portion of the time anyway so he still gets yards and snaps in losses. In the two games in 2016 that Arizona lost by more than one score, DJ still put up 22.1 and 23.1 points in standard scoring (plus 8 and 3 receptions).
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May 5, 2018 23:43
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My favorite part was future hall of famer Philip Rivers.
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May 6, 2018 00:30
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opposable thumbs.db posted:As a Cards fan, I can reiterate that the line will be absolute trash, barring some sort of unforeseen large jumps in individual ability and coaching. Beer covered most of the reasons why that article is ridiculous for a player that seems to be going at about #5 right now, but I think the most ridiculous is the game script argument. Putting aside the fact that no one knows for sure how good the Cardinals will be since the NFL is unpredictable, DJ basically plays like a receiver a large portion of the time anyway so he still gets yards and snaps in losses. In the two games in 2016 that Arizona lost by more than one score, DJ still put up 22.1 and 23.1 points in standard scoring (plus 8 and 3 receptions). Exactly. The entire article ignores the fact that David Johnson is a major threat as a receiver, and "lovely game script" just means they'll throw more. He's an every-down back for a reason. I'd love to get him #5 overall (he went #1 in the slow draft) and then go WR heavy for the next few rounds.
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May 6, 2018 01:10
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Yeah I was looking at FantasyPros overall rankings. Really, I think I'd be very happy with any of the top 4 RBs.
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May 6, 2018 02:01
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"Football player may or may not be good" --football analysts
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May 6, 2018 02:15
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But, what if the new coach is Jeff Fisher 2.0? But, what if the new coach is Sean McVay 2.0?
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May 6, 2018 02:39
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I think the easiest thing to do in fantasy football is just trust talent. A couple years back, I remember arguing against drafting Antonio Brown first overall. My logic was nobody has been that dominant three years in a row. I'm dumb.
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May 6, 2018 04:41
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Sataere posted:I think the easiest thing to do in fantasy football is just trust talent. A couple years back, I remember arguing against drafting Antonio Brown first overall. My logic was nobody has been that dominant three years in a row. I'm dumb. Sorta like how Julio Jones was a lock for top 3 WRs again last year, right? And OBJ? Or like how Adrian Peterson was a lock to be top 3 RB, even when he went to the Saints? What I'm getting at is yes, trust talent, if the team is otherwise functional. But there are so many counterfactuals that it's totally reasonable to think that a top star player may regress in a given year for reasons x, y, and z. I dunno about that Browns call, but I'd say DJ is a big risk this year if you're taking him in the top five and I'd probably not do that in redraft.
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May 6, 2018 07:32
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IcePhoenix posted:I've brought it up before but people are usually just snarky about it to me so I dropped it I'd be willing to do this too.
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May 6, 2018 08:28
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Leperflesh posted:Sorta like how Julio Jones was a lock for top 3 WRs again last year, right? And OBJ? Or like how Adrian Peterson was a lock to be top 3 RB, even when he went to the Saints? Nah, iirc the logic he's saying was not that he thought Antonio Brown or the Steelers offense had changed or gotten worse in any way, it was literally just "no one has been WR1 three years in a row, so Brown can't be this year." Something kind of like mixing up whether you should bet the field against any one player being WR1 (of course) with whether a given player is most likely to be WR1. No one was arguing that a 30 whatever year old Adrian Peterson was going to be a top 3 RB. But I think I agree with you somewhat in this case, I'd shy away from DJ as my #1 just for rust and supporting cast concerns, rather go Gurley or Zeke or Bell, but can't see dropping him less than that.
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May 6, 2018 16:10
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sourdough posted:Nah, iirc the logic he's saying was not that he thought Antonio Brown or the Steelers offense had changed or gotten worse in any way, it was literally just "no one has been WR1 three years in a row, so Brown can't be this year." Something kind of like mixing up whether you should bet the field against any one player being WR1 (of course) with whether a given player is most likely to be WR1. No one was arguing that a 30 whatever year old Adrian Peterson was going to be a top 3 RB. This is exactly what I was saying. Leperflesh posted:Sorta like how Julio Jones was a lock for top 3 WRs again last year, right? And OBJ? Or like how Adrian Peterson was a lock to be top 3 RB, even when he went to the Saints? I dislike all the counter examples you provided for the following reasons. 1) Julio had his offensive coordinator change, so there was a significant change that you didn't know how it would effect him. But even with all that, I am comfortable taking Julio as one of my first receivers this year. 2) ODB got hurt. You can't plan for injuries and before he got hurt, he was on pace for ending the year as a WR1. He also has not had a functional offense in New York and still been dominant when on the field. 3) In no universe did anyone think AD was a lock to be a top three RB. All you need to do is look at where he was drafted to see this. People hoped Sean Payton would somehow fix him, but he was always a mid-round lottery pick. Talent finds a way. With AB84, his situation hadn't even changed and I was writing him off for bad reasons. David Johnson should be in the same conversation as Zeke, Bell and Gurley. I legitimately hope all you guys sleep on him, because I want all the DJ shares!
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May 6, 2018 16:41
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Sataere posted:. David Johnson should be in the same conversation as Zeke, Bell and Gurley. I legitimately hope all you guys sleep on him, because I want all the DJ shares! 2015 Bell and 2016 Gurley 
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May 6, 2018 16:48
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Alfalfa posted:2015 Bell and 2016 Gurley This will be my default comeback in case I am wrong. 
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May 6, 2018 16:59
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Leperflesh posted:Or like how Adrian Peterson was a lock to be top 3 RB, even when he went to the Saints? Is this referencing an inside joke I missed out on?
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May 6, 2018 19:01
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Had my rookie draft today in my 2qb league. Managed to get Rosen at 1.06 and traded away 1.07 and 2.12 for 2.03 and a 2019 1st. The first round was Barkley Guice Mayfield Chubb Penny Rosen Michel Kerryon Johnson Lamar Jackson DJ Moore Ronald Jones Josh Allen I also got an offer for Dez Bryant for my 3.08 pick which was too much possible upside for me to turn down. I feel like there's no chance that Dez doesn't get a shot with some team.
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May 6, 2018 19:32
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Edit nm
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May 6, 2018 20:09
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Thelonius Van Funk posted:Had my rookie draft today in my 2qb league. Managed to get Rosen at 1.06 and traded away 1.07 and 2.12 for 2.03 and a 2019 1st. I'm not sure I pass Michel where you took him. I really like him, but I get it. I'm not sure I'd pass Bryant either for 3.08. You are basically trading lottery picks there. What are your top three choices for the second round?
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May 6, 2018 23:11
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Drunk Nerds posted:Is this referencing an inside joke I missed out on? I guess just random homers, lol.
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May 7, 2018 02:39
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Leperflesh posted:I guess just random homers, lol. Good lord, I can't even imagine someone that homer-ish that they though AD was going to be that good on the saints 
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May 7, 2018 14:49
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IcePhoenix posted:Good lord, I can't even imagine someone that homer-ish that they though AD was going to be that good on the saints Especially once Kamara was drafted. When that happened, I feel everyone realized that the Saints didn't really love AD.
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May 7, 2018 15:02
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Sataere posted:Especially once Kamara was drafted. When that happened, I feel everyone realized that the Saints didn't really love AD. There was a huge discussion last year about whether AP or Ingram was the better play last year in the fifth round. True brain geniuses knew it was Kamara.
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May 7, 2018 15:26
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This gave me a good chuckle this morning when enjoying my cup of coffee https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/05/jerick-mckinnon-will-be-a-bust-fantasy-football/
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May 7, 2018 15:40
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Alfalfa posted:This gave me a good chuckle this morning when enjoying my cup of coffee I saw that yesterday and I didn't want to post it for fear of ~homerism~ He cites Kyle Jusczcyk as a goal-line vulture. He had zero carries inside the five last year and one target inside the ten. Carlos Hyde had 16 goal-line carries, the second most in the league
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May 7, 2018 15:51
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That is a weirdly put together article. On the one hand, I agree with his overall point about McKinnon underachieving throughout his career. On the other hand, after reading that, I kinda feel like I'm wrong to have that opinion and now want to rate him higher. 
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May 7, 2018 19:17
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The biggest error of that article is ignoring Shanahan and how he ran his running game in Atlanta. McKinnon's performance is going to be dependent more on how well Breida and I guess possibly Joe Williams perform. The idea that Shanahan is going to use Juszczyk as a goal line ball carrier is of course very silly. But if Shanahan views his RBs as McKinnon playing a Tevin Coleman type role while Breida plays a Davonta Freeman type role, then McKinnon is not going to get high volume and neither back will be worth an early round pick in fantasy. It could go the other way around, though, and we need to see what Joe Williams can do when healthy (I suspect it's "fumble a lot, not make an impact, maybe get traded or cut").
Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:37 on May 7, 2018 |
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May 7, 2018 19:33
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Man I really want my Brieda taxi stash to pan out.
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May 7, 2018 20:15
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https://twitter.com/rotoworld_fb/status/993580726623916032?s=21 Not a huge deal but still slightly hurts CMC
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May 7, 2018 21:19
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https://twitter.com/MatthewBerryTMR/status/993597419093884928 how many years in a row are we going to look at cja partial season production
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May 7, 2018 22:07
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Do I need to add Carolina to my list of teams with undraftable RBs? Lists are always better with three, and I may need a replacement if the Giants are leaving the Lions and Jets behind.
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May 7, 2018 22:12
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it's only been a few months but my body and mind are ready that is until i lose my top 3 picks to injuries
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May 7, 2018 22:54
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