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The Latin America thread doesn't deserve this crap, I welcome you to the 2018 Brazil Elections Thread! I remember in 2014 the political polarization here reached a new peak that I never seen before. I said to a friend "lol it can't get any worse than this". Oh boy, how wrong I was. The history of politics in Brazil is super convoluted but let's try to untangle this clusterfuck together in this thread while laughing and crying until the ultimate demise of the south american giant. I'll gradually update the OP with info on each player in the game ordered by their current poll popularity.   Lula 30% PT (Worker's Party) Intro The former 35th president is the most popular precandidate right now. An old figure in Brazilian politics, his career started as a union leader. He lost in 1989, 1994 and 1998. In 2002 he beat the centrist PSDB candidate and became the first left-wing president starting the Worker's Party hegemony in Brazil that lasted 13 years.  The Lula years were arguably very good; Brazil had a modest economic miracle and the fallout from the 2008 global crisis was dealt in a gracious way. The Lula administration was defined by a substantial expansion of welfare policies. Lula left as the most popular president in history, with 83% approval. He served 2 terms as president, but the brazilian constitution is quirky and allows a person to serve more than 2 terms if they're nonconsecutive years. So... What's the catch here? Well, Lula is currently in prison. The fall of the Worker's Party Blatant bribery has been a constant in brazilian politics in every administration, that's how the sausage is made and everyone always knew it. You may have noticed in the graph above that Lula's popularity had a downfall in 2005. That's due to the Mensalão scandal which was about the Worker's Party bribing other parties for congress votes. Despite this, the Lula administration continued strong. Lula (and later Dilma) enabled policies to combat the corrupt practices of the general political class, it was the origin of stuff like the Clean Record Act and Operation Car Wash. Dilma was Lula's successor. She did not have the same political finesse as Lula had, she lost allies. In 2013 Brazil had its own "Arab Spring"-like manifestations and the general feeling of dissatisfaction caused a whole new level of political polarization. The 2014 elections were nasty, Dilma was reelected, winning against the PSDB candidate by a narrow margin. But the resentment against the Worker's Party was at an all-time high. The opposition was relentless and systematically attacked the Worker's Party. In a ridiculous House of Cards move, vice-president Michel Temer openly betrayed Dilma, opportunistically siding with the opposition. Congress members, many who were previously Worker's Party allies, called for the impeachment of president Dilma in late 2015. And as a resulting action of Operation Car Wash, Lula was arrested in April this year for passive bribery. I could get on the details of the accusations (Lula's arrest and Dilma's impeachment) but the partisan slant is the most relevant aspect of what happened. So what's Lula like? Lula is mostly a simple dude, he's old and a bit out of touch now. He survived cancer, his wife died last year. He's been criticized a lot for not having a college degree, thus being unfit to serve as president. His simple nature eventually became a huge charismatic asset among lower classes. Will Lula be allowed to be an official candidate? Probably not, it'd require a very lenient reading of the Clean Record Act and Lula's been categorically losing in courts for a while now. It's clear for everyone that the Worker's Party is in shambles and grasping at straws with his precandidacy. But we'll only know for sure in August. Coming next: Bolsonaro
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Jun 21, 2018 23:59
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Sephyr posted:Bolsonaro will easily go to the 2nd turn, likely with even better numbers than implied. Just like Le Pen and other vile human turds, there's a hidden 3-5% of people that are shamed to admit to polls that they will vote for the monster, but still go forward and push the button come election day. Yeah, there's a general "tolerance" towards Bolsonaro that I feel like it's more defining than open support for him. Basically instead of looking at how some people feel about Bolsonaro, look at how they talk about the other candidates. That's how you know they'll vote Bolsonaro for sure.
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Jun 23, 2018 18:47
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I was away from the internet for a bit but it seems like Lula was almost released today? I have no idea how it works but the justice system sure sounds fickle to me.
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Jul 8, 2018 18:44
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