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You are severely overestimating the media's power in the present day, especially when it is seen as part of the establishment that -everyone- hates. They may be able to destroy left-of-center politicians that their crowds are predisposed toward hating, but they are woefully unprepared to dealing with a radical that their public actually likes. Same way the US media was (and is) at a loss with how to deal with open fascists gaining power in the USA. Bolsonaro will easily go to the 2nd turn, likely with even better numbers than implied. Just like Le Pen and other vile human turds, there's a hidden 3-5% of people that are shamed to admit to polls that they will vote for the monster, but still go forward and push the button come election day. Now, if he wins or not in the end...it's a crap shoot. It depends on who goes up against him. If it's a non-entity or known compromised figure, blank votes and protest votes will put him over the edge. Otherwise, he'll lose, but have made enough of a statement that any government that comes afterward will have to cater to his base or be corroded from within (again).
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Jun 23, 2018 03:10
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Watching Bolsonaro be warmly welcomed by the corporate executives and get -standing ovations- at the Hebraica club pretty much obliterated any hope I could have in the alleged "natural moderation" of Brazil's elite and middle class. And even those that favor other horses or dislike him will kiss his rear end if he seems likely to win, or prefer him to anyone who might throw a bone to anyone who isn't themselves.
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Jun 26, 2018 02:31
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The truth is, even if Lula somehow got out of jail and was allowed to run (he won't), even he would not be able to untie the gordian knot that politics has become, It'd be like Peron's return to Argentina. The game has moved, everyone is poorer and madder and playing for keeps. I don't really see good outcomes coming from the election in any way. Even if Ciro or Haddad pull off a win, they will have the media against them, politicized courts nipping at their heels, and an unleashed, infinitely greedy congress requiring mountains of bribes to not simply shut down government on a whim. There's always mediocre crooks and loons in every country's governing system, but only in failed states and dying countries do they get to be the main moving force of politics, and that has been the case since 2016. There are roughly two paths shaping up from the election: -Ciro/Haddad/someone progressive wins. Congress clams up like an oyster, sandbagging their government. If they try to rule by executive, they are called despots by the media and impeached, especially if they try to undo the shitfuckery of the last 2 years. Should they somehow get to the end of their term, Bolsonaro or someone inspired by him will be in the wings to take over. -Bolsonaro wins. After a short honeymoon with the media and the elite, glad that the country was saved from Venezuela's face, it becomes clear that he has no clue of what he is doing and his apointees are either jokes or immensely corrupt ideologues. He has no option but to tone up his rethotic as he fails to fix the crisis, leading to violent repression of protests, likely extended interventions in more states, all that good stuff. He will either renounce when evangeloicals dump him for a leadership of their own, or might actually be deposed by an actual military coup when the armed forces get tired of picking up his poo poo. The only real solution I can see for the bondoggle would be a massive general election of the whole legislative, followed by a constitutional assembly to unfuck things a bit and maybe get some shred of legitimacy and functionality going. But those are usually best done when the situation is somewhat stable and prosperous, not when the country is melting.
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Jun 27, 2018 15:23
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Oh, I know how nuts it sounds. But at the same time, what else is there? Fixing each of the severe power imbalances and loopholes in the machinery of power one at a time will never happen; there is not enough money on the planet to bribe the legislators, even if they cared to ruin their own privileges. It would have to be a big, one-time fix to avert national disaster. Which again, is unfeasible as poo poo, because so far everyone is still way too happy to play "Set the other guy's house on fire and hope it burns down faster than yours". And they'll stay that way long after the worker's party is a smoking hole in the ground and an evangelical pastor-senator is elbow-deep inside their asses and wallets.
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Jun 28, 2018 02:27
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Ghost of Mussolini posted:Surely this is still beyond the pale, even as ridiculous as everything has gotten? Not as much as you might think. I've mostly had contact with mid-level officers, and while most were decent enough types who had little intention of jumping in to try and untie the gordian knot of the crisis, they were of one mind in that if some moron is going to deploy them left at right to solve all the poo poo the government can't manage, they might as well kick him out and call the shots instead of let some moron take credit. Or worse, give them impossible objectives/handicaps and make them look bad. One thing I learned about the military is that you can kill them by the bushel and they'll shrug it off, but make them look silly/weak and they'll go loving ballistic on you.
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Jul 2, 2018 21:57
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Symbolic Butt posted:I was away from the internet for a bit but it seems like Lula was almost released today? Hr's very likely not going to be freed, to the point that a first-instance judge openly refused a ruling by a superior court. It's a bondoggle. But yeah, brazilian law is intensely personalist and each judge basically rules as he or she chooses at that moment, even going against their own published papers and precedent to help one faction or screw another.
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Jul 8, 2018 19:47
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Plutonis posted:He's the loving lead lol This, and the media and rich fucks have their knives out for anyone who compromises with the faintest social programs and spending. The stock market actually jumps up whenever his numbers improve, drops when they fall or one of his opponents gains, and tons of 'moderate' upper midlde class people are basically going "Well, I don't -like- him, but we gotta save the country from the commies". My parents included.
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Sep 18, 2018 20:56
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joepinetree posted:Yeah, every single one of my wife's family members who were rabid Aecio voters are now Bolsonaro voters. Very true. But then again, thowing the spotlight onto Haddad would have made him a bigger target as well. There is something to be said for leaning into the whole injustice and blatant bias of the case against Lula; it's one of the reasons the party has not imploded in the last 3 years.
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Sep 19, 2018 02:13
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| # ¿ May 11, 2024 07:08 |
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I can see them trying to run him as a way to get a bite of Rio's huge evangelical voter share. "Well, he seems to like social projects and stuff, he must have the whole fanaticism thing under control, right? Right?" Not smart and pretty ridiculous in retrospect, but eh, guess it was better than not trying.
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Oct 1, 2018 05:16
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