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working my way through it and the reasoning is solid so far, but i disagree with this point, (in re: tesla dropping the "model 2"):quote:This was the key reason behind the 17% slide in Tesla’s stock since the Reuters article came out through last Friday’s close. perhaps that's a reason behind its decline, but i wouldn't say it's a "key reason". undoubtedly it contributed to the slide but as we all know, the past month has basically just been a nonstop onslaught of bad news about the rest of their model lineup, headcount, inventory, the direction they're going in, etc. — it's all bad news. i don't think you can point to any one data point in particular and say that's why it's on the decline, though i would say them dropping a supposedly affordable model is likely a big one to institutional investors
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Apr 24, 2024 17:37
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It's time to profit off of Musk's antics again. He is a skilled con artist that's still capable of conning the people with big money. Time to buy more TSLA puts. Options trading is a simple way for novice retail investors to make easy money, that's what some account on Reddit posted. And that comment was heavily upvoted so you know it's true.
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Apr 24, 2024 17:40
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gschmidl posted:Musk is humanitarian AIDS. A reminder that he asked some part of the UN how much it would cost to end world hunger, they told him (a lot, lot less than his fortune at the time) and he never responded.
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Apr 24, 2024 17:41
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I wonder how long before at least one US state bans fsd. That's got to be coming
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Apr 24, 2024 17:42
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Arsenic Lupin posted:A reminder that he asked some part of the UN how much it would cost to end world hunger, they told him (a lot, lot less than his fortune at the time) and he never responded. he did respond, something to the effect of "lol ok but i'm not doing that"
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Apr 24, 2024 17:44
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Twerk from Home posted:About what Tesla is going to do in the future or how capable the cars are right now? Absolutely. About actual accounting numbers? No way, they're public with huge teams preparing their reports. There's room for a lot of creative bullshit but I'll eat my hat if there's actual Enron-ish accounting fraud. Tesla's stock price was always sky high despite their financial results being unimpressive, they don't need good financials. 1) several years ago Tesla had a very unusual amount of turnover in finance and accounting roles, the most prominent of which was a new hire for chief accounting officer that walked in the door, took a look around, and quit within the first month 2) following that, they just stopped making outside hires and promoted from within, beginning with the promotion of an underqualified 35-year old (prior experience was a few years at McKinsey, before coming up internally through Tesla's accounting department) to 3) if musk was ever clever enough to understand that he could pump the stock price just fine without cooking the books, that era is coming to a close and his usual tricks are seeing diminishing returns. Musk and co. also get away with a bit of light securities fraud all the time, and the thing about guys like Musk is, when they keep getting away with something, that does not encourage them to do less of that thing
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Apr 24, 2024 17:44
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threads.net/@raypedia/post/C6G_6DXxKA- first I've heard of it being called a wankpanzer but that's a good one
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Apr 24, 2024 17:45
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i didn't hear about this (or notice it) but lol another point on my "tesla will leave china" bingo boardquote:Tesla’s tax rate in Q1 soared to 26.3% versus 9.3% in Q1 2023. This is due to an increase in the tax rate in China from 15% last year to 25% this year per the Grant Contract with China, as well as paying normal taxes in the US. Based on these two factors, I had estimated a 24% blended tax rate, but Q1 seems to be much higher for some reason. More details in the 10-Q. e: ok finished the piece. it's good, excepting the point in the first post on this page. also just realized the above indicates a negative (or close to it) tax obligation in the US/EU. loving elon is so goddamn shameless Beeftweeter fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Apr 24, 2024 |
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Apr 24, 2024 17:48
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Blotto_Otter posted:while I don't think there's any fraud that's remotely on the level of Enron in terms of size and pervasiveness, I would be thoroughly unsurprised if we ever learn that there is some kind of book-cooking going on, for a few reasons: yeah. this is why i made the nortel comparison. nortel did some dumb poo poo but what ultimately killed them was nuking any trust in them due to the dumb poo poo
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Apr 24, 2024 17:48
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EricBauman posted:time to launch that 's&p500 except for tesla' etf Someone who knows what they're doing more than me can probably make a synthetic version of this with options. Maybe something like deep ITM puts that you rollover every week? Problem is most options contracts are 100 shares per contract so you'd need like a million and a half bucks of SPY/VOO otherwise you'd be too far short TSLA. Plus options aren't free and all that trading means you're getting lots of taxable trades. So you'd be paying a significant amount of your total portfolio returns to Wall St and Uncle Sam just to be mad at Elon.
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Apr 24, 2024 17:52
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Tesseraction posted:threads.net/@raypedia/post/C6G_6DXxKA- incEl Camino remains my favorite
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Apr 24, 2024 17:53
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Tesseraction posted:
The sudden German is a bit weird. Wichspanzer sounds good though.
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Apr 24, 2024 18:06
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I thought tow trucks had little dollies they could put under a car’s wheels instead of just dragging it
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Apr 24, 2024 18:14
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Silver Alicorn posted:I thought tow trucks had little dollies they could put under a car’s wheels instead of just dragging it what if the kybertrrrk is just too heavy
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Apr 24, 2024 18:16
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Tesseraction posted:interesting https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/tesla-q1-results-a-shady-set-of-numbers fwiw, that guy hit "post" too quickly, the 10-Q was already up this morning and it reports the figure at $281 million, not $700m. that is still more than double the prior quarter and accounts for ~24% of operating income for the quarter. in terms of the accounting for it, that deferred FSD revenue is indeed the kind of squishy number that involves a lot of subjective estimation, which makes it a great lever to pull if you need to sandbag or juice your quarterly earnings a bit I don't know how accurate the rest of his math is, but his estimates on the # of unsold cars in inventory seems to be in the right ballpark, and the broad strokes of his analysis smell right to me Lain Iwakura posted:yeah. this is why i made the nortel comparison. nortel did some dumb poo poo but what ultimately killed them was nuking any trust in them due to the dumb poo poo Always worth keeping in mind that most accounting frauds only get found out after the company experiences a downturn. Cooking a company's books is real easy to do as long as the company is growing and all of the numbers are going up, but real hard to hide once numbers start going down and the tide goes out.
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Apr 24, 2024 18:20
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yeah the whole "nobody asks questions when things are going well" phenomenon is the root of much financial fuckery. madoff kept it going for decades by getting bridge loans from his whales who were in on it
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Apr 24, 2024 18:23
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Blotto_Otter posted:Always worth keeping in mind that most accounting frauds only get found out after the company experiences a downturn. Cooking a company's books is real easy to do as long as the company is growing and all of the numbers are going up, but real hard to hide once numbers start going down and the tide goes out. the key difference between tesla and nortel is that tesla unlike nortel is not going on a buying spree of other companies with purchasing them using tesla stock. tesla has nothing to buy that'll help augment its company which is why we have or had poo poo like solarcity (which it did buy), power walls, and now this dumb robot if nortel didn't gently caress up on its deliveries, i'd have bet on them having bought cisco and probably would have managed to survive to this very day. tesla is probably going to paint itself into a corner with just a few bad quarters in a row
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Apr 24, 2024 18:27
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Antigravitas posted:The sudden German is a bit weird. it's a play on wank tank that's just clumsier for the sake of being different
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Apr 24, 2024 18:27
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rowkey bilbao posted:what if the kybertrrrk is just too heavy they'd also have to jack it up which may be somewhere between difficult and impossible with that frame
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Apr 24, 2024 18:29
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did anyone call it the Actual Lee yet
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Apr 24, 2024 18:32
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tesla stock is funny when it drops $20 in a day. we don't need three posts every time it went down 40 cents in an hour and then back up again
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Apr 24, 2024 18:41
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Sweevo posted:tesla stock is funny when it drops $20 in a day. yeah. the stock price is absolutely meaningless right now. here is how nortel stock worked out:  tesla stock is doing something similar (i know this is market cap)  i'm not saying that they're going to be an analogue, but this loving around with GAAP EPS is likely going to come back to haunt them [edit] here's how nortel's market cap and revenue compared 
Lain Iwakura fucked around with this message at 18:54 on Apr 24, 2024 |
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Apr 24, 2024 18:50
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Lain Iwakura posted:yeah. the stock price is absolutely meaningless right now. here is how nortel stock worked out: between 2000 and 2001 is when they got permanently owned by (theoretically) chinese state hackers, isn't it?
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Apr 24, 2024 18:54
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infernal machines posted:between 2000 and 2001 is when they got permanently owned by (theoretically) chinese state hackers, isn't it? the story of nortel being infiltrated by the chinese state is something i keep meaning to read into because i have heard it from a few angles but never gave it the time of day. i know that when their headquarters were being looked at by the DND that they found bugs but then back-peddled on it being the case--they still moved into the facility anyway. i wish someone would write a book about it, but i imagine that details about this are classified
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Apr 24, 2024 18:57
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iirc it came out a few years back that firmware files for hardware dating back to 2001ish had signs of tampering/backdoors in them, and from there they found other signs of persistent presence of 3rd parties on their infrastructure for a long rear end time
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Apr 24, 2024 19:00
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Lain Iwakura posted:the key difference between tesla and nortel is that tesla unlike nortel is not going on a buying spree of other companies with purchasing them using tesla stock. tesla has nothing to buy that'll help augment its company which is why we have or had poo poo like solarcity (which it did buy), power walls, and now this dumb robot that's a good analysis, i was going to say something similar til i hit your post lol but i'd say tesla hasn't been making acquisitions with their stock yet. with them having as much money to play with as they do i wouldn't bet against it. solarcity was kind of a weird exception because it was a company elon's dumb brother kimbal was running into the ground, and elon bailed him out at the same time with elon's pie in the sky promises and tesla's dwindling talent, the board of directors is probably thinking they'd need acquisitions to make anything he's saying a reality
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Apr 24, 2024 19:00
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infernal machines posted:iirc it came out a few years back that firmware files for hardware dating back to 2001ish had signs of tampering/backdoors in them, and from there they found other signs of persistent presence of 3rd parties on their infrastructure for a long rear end time i am sure there's some parallel with tesla here too lol
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Apr 24, 2024 19:01
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Sweevo posted:we don't need three posts every time it went down 40 cents in an hour and then back up again nobody is doing this
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Apr 24, 2024 19:03
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infernal machines posted:iirc it came out a few years back that firmware files for hardware dating back to 2001ish had signs of tampering/backdoors in them, and from there they found other signs of persistent presence of 3rd parties on their infrastructure for a long rear end time was this limited to the hardware originating from their bay networks acquisition? i'd love to read into this more
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Apr 24, 2024 19:04
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Silver Alicorn posted:I thought tow trucks had little dollies they could put under a car’s wheels instead of just dragging it cybertruck is smart enough to not recognize a dolly, they would have to use an actual child to get it to move
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Apr 24, 2024 19:07
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Lain Iwakura posted:was this limited to the hardware originating from their bay networks acquisition? i'd love to read into this more tbh my memory is fuzzy on the timing, having read about it a few years back e: 2012, lmao i think most of what i'm remembering is based on this https://archive.fo/paFU8, but since you've mentioned it i'm looking for better sources infernal machines fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Apr 24, 2024 |
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Apr 24, 2024 19:08
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Beeftweeter posted:at the same time with elon's pie in the sky promises and tesla's dwindling talent, the board of directors is probably thinking they'd need acquisitions to make anything he's saying a reality i cannot wait for elon to pull a roth and do this. like what would tesla buy? i guess they could go and grab companies like rivian or lucid much to the delight of detroit's automakers? this is an area i do not have a lot of knowledge in personally
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Apr 24, 2024 19:08
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Beeftweeter posted:i am sure there's some parallel with tesla here too lol can you imagine? remember the tesla insider's posts about their back-end infrastructure itt?
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Apr 24, 2024 19:08
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Blotto_Otter posted:fwiw, that guy hit "post" too quickly, the 10-Q was already up this morning so that kinda answers my question about optimus i guess. their entire R&D expenditure for the quarter was $1.15 billion, compared to $771 million in 2023 assuming that was steady per quarter, that means tesla as a whole was previously spending less than $4 billion per year on R&D and might hit (or exceed) that number at the end of this year. doesn't seem like a lot to spend on allegedly cutting-edge tech across their whole enterprise e: oops, i got distracted and the numbers were wrong Beeftweeter fucked around with this message at 21:20 on Apr 24, 2024 |
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Apr 24, 2024 19:13
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infernal machines posted:tbh my memory is fuzzy on the timing, having read about it a few years back looking at this, i wish it had more context. being that there were rumours of bugs having been placed at their headquarters, if true and defence was just trying to hide this fact, they had physical access to these computers which as you know, all bets are off especially in the early 00s. unfortunately it would require getting ahold of firmware from that point in time and then reversing 25-year old code, which would probably be unpleasant and only rewarding for clout reasons
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Apr 24, 2024 19:15
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Blotto_Otter posted:while I don't think there's any fraud that's remotely on the level of Enron in terms of size and pervasiveness, I would be thoroughly unsurprised if we ever learn that there is some kind of book-cooking going on, for a few reasons: yeah: i have been convinced by 1 and 2 for a while that tesla at that time was relentlessly cooking the books. they had similar issues with chief legal roles too, where people were getting jobs they weren't qualified for and were huge career-makers, and then suddenly realizing they want any job but that one. but i don't know they're still doing it - but given how much of musk's net worth is tesla stock it seems likely they're gonna start again
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Apr 24, 2024 19:15
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rowkey bilbao posted:what if the kybertrrrk is just too heavy it's this. a tow driver isn't going to risk bending up their dollies for one tow. they dont give a gently caress about your refrigerator on wheels. on the winch it goes.
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Apr 24, 2024 19:16
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Lain Iwakura posted:looking at this, i wish it had more context. being that there were rumours of bugs having been placed at their headquarters, if true and defence was just trying to hide this fact, they had physical access to these computers which as you know, all bets are off especially in the early 00s. unfortunately it would require getting ahold of firmware from that point in time and then reversing 25-year old code, which would probably be unpleasant and only rewarding for clout reasons i'll spend some more time digging when i can, everything trivial to find is either referencing/summarizing the wsj article, or some contemporary sinophobia out of canwest i'm fairly sure there was more in-depth coverage of the device firmware stuff but my memory of an article i read 12 years ago probably isn't great and google is even worse
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Apr 24, 2024 19:17
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Lain Iwakura posted:i cannot wait for elon to pull a roth and do this. like what would tesla buy? i guess they could go and grab companies like rivian or lucid much to the delight of detroit's automakers? this is an area i do not have a lot of knowledge in personally i have no idea, their focus (according to elon) is not actually cars anymore, lol. so likely some ai companies (if they don't straight up absorb elon's xAI thing), maybe some self-driving startups that i'd bet some former apple employees are going to start, maybe some poo poo like that. comedy option would be waymo i suppose infernal machines posted:can you imagine? lol yeah, that's what i'm basing that conjecture off of, even. elon's a real flashy guy, loves to brag about his tech, and of course it seems like the whole thing is just thrown together in the most haphazard and expedient way possible. a fantastic recipe for getting owned hard by some state-backed APT, lol
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Apr 24, 2024 19:18
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qirex posted:yeah the whole "nobody asks questions when things are going well" phenomenon is the root of much financial fuckery. madoff kept it going for decades by getting bridge loans from his whales who were in on it its also that, fundamentally, a lot of accounting fraud is basically borrowing from the future. if everything is going up, you can repay that no problem burying the repayment of the earlier accounting fraud in the growth. but the instant stuff turns south, suddenly you either need to own up to it, or hope things improve in the future and double down on borrowing from the future, and get yourself into a hole with no exit.
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Apr 24, 2024 19:18
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