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PIZZA.BAT posted:The article is saying the usual going price is $1k per container. If you can get an entire ship for $2.5k that's uh.... a pretty steep discount That’s container rates to Asia, bulk charter rates are a different thing. Edit but they’re all hosed right now.
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Feb 18, 2020 19:38
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LoL, 4 dimensional chess! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-blasts-proposed-restrictions-china-165449642.html quote:Trump blasts proposed restrictions on selling U.S. jet parts to China
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Feb 19, 2020 00:52
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GlassEye-Boy posted:LoL, 4 dimensional chess! uhhhhh. Our president doesn't know how Things work.
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Feb 19, 2020 00:54
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Got 2500 $ bucks? You can get a contract to have a bulk ship do what you want at that rate per day. Plus fuel costs. How much is fuel costs for a day for say a Panamax?
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Feb 19, 2020 20:59
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Orange Devil posted:How much is fuel costs for a day for say a Panamax? I can tell ya consumption. A Panamax bulk carrier loaded with 65,000 to 72,000 MT (metric tons) trimmed anything between even keel to down by the stern 0.5 meters will burn about 25 MT in a full 24 hours underway. This isn’t a guess. A containership of about the same size going faster, but probably with a lower block coefficient for the hull, I’d guess 30 to 35 MT a day depending on how fast they wanted to go. I’m less confident about the containership estimate, it is a guess but probably a pretty drat good one. Then just look up the price of bunkers. You want low sulfur heavy fuel oil. They can’t burn the high sulfur stuff anymore unless they have a stack scrubber and most vessels don’t. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 06:31 on Feb 20, 2020 |
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Feb 20, 2020 06:29
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I can tell ya consumption. A Panamax bulk carrier loaded with 65,000 to 72,000 MT (metric tons) trimmed anything between even keel to down by the stern 0.5 meters will burn about 25 MT in a full 24 hours underway. This isn’t a guess. just on a random-rear end google it's in the general range of $650 per tonne, so $16k a day for the bulkship
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Feb 21, 2020 02:22
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It varies a lot due to demand fluctuations and has geographical and quality variation. I honestly don’t follow it because I used to not have to care what things cost. How much they burn in a voyage was needed to figure out drafts and trim at the discharge port (or the canal). I didn’t need to care about that either, but crews appreciated it if one gave them a heads up they were going to gently caress themselves and be deeper than the max draft at the discharge port.
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Feb 21, 2020 03:09
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Edit: misread
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Feb 21, 2020 17:51
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I posted this in the Numbers thread earlier but I’m setting in a airport for like 12 hours. When that happens I read the economist, I know, I know, I also read the times when this happens. Anyway look at this:  There are more segments spread throughout the various articles. But the idea of lean and of just in time that underlies how the global economy works... is seriously being questioned finally even in the Economist.
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Feb 28, 2020 21:24
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e: wrong thread
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Feb 29, 2020 19:16
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https://mobile.worldmaritimenews.com/archives/292574/container-lines-may-lose-17-mn-teu-in-2020-due-to-coronavirus/ “there is a real risk of bankruptcies” “finally, even if this negative scenario plays out fully, we also need to be prepared for the aftermath which will come in the shape of a sharp rebound where we will temporarily see capacity shortages and rocketing freight rates.” that second part is what threatens the viability of JIT and lean logistics. Or like I said a couple years ago hold onto your butts.
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Mar 17, 2020 17:19
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/business/economy/global-trade-shortages-coronavirus.html?referringSource=articleShare NYTs tldr global supply chains are hosed.
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Apr 11, 2020 02:38
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https://splash247.com/liner-bankruptcy-potential-spreads-in-step-with-the-coronavirus/ https://splash247.com/liner-bankruptcy-potential-at-highest-levels-recorded/ Holy hell the scores they quote are for December 2019. Container shipping is going to collapse. I’m not real happy about being right. Fixed links let’s try that again https://splash247.com/liner-bankruptcy-potential-spreads-in-step-with-the-coronavirus/ https://splash247.com/liner-bankruptcy-potential-at-highest-levels-recorded/ Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Apr 17, 2020 |
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Apr 17, 2020 16:14
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Apr 17, 2020 16:55
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Is there like a regression analysis or something that informs this Altman Z-Score? Yeah: A recent study of 25,442 firm-year observations finds the false positive rate of the Altman Z-Score to be between 98% and 99%, meaning that most all firms with Altman Z-Scores below the cutoff do not file for bankruptcy within 1 or 2 years.
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Apr 17, 2020 17:15
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I was talking to a friend's dad (who happens to be a Harvard business school professor focused on supply chains and trade) and he was saying it doesn't look good. The closure of china in Feb lead to a bunch of supply shock and empty sailings due to no goods, and when the West closed there was a demand shock as no one could buy anything so nothing was unloaded right as china started to be able to fill back orders. One of the biggest issues he was talking about was the disruption of container flow as so many of them are currently sitting full, unable to be unloaded as closed stores have stuff distribution centers and no where to put the product. The full containers are causing container shortages as no one can get empty ones to ship goods back to china, and it all relies on a circular flow of the same containers to make the whole thing work.
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Apr 17, 2020 17:45
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pseudanonymous posted:Is there like a regression analysis or something that informs this Altman Z-Score? Check my post history in this thread. My argument is not at all dependent on the Z scores. They are merely confirming things I’ve already argued. And these scores are bad like pants making GBS threads bad.
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Apr 17, 2020 17:50
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Meowmeow friend’s dad is spot on, im about to become busy when they start opening up all those stalled full containers with ruined cargos.
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Apr 17, 2020 17:52
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Check my post history in this thread. My argument is not at all dependent on the Z scores. They are merely confirming things I’ve already argued. And these scores are bad like pants making GBS threads bad. Sorry, I don't think you're wrong that you're they're gonna go bankrupt. I'm just a valuation accountant and I've done a lot of financial statement analysis and I've not heard of this z-score poo poo so I was professionally curious.
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Apr 17, 2020 17:54
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The lines are secretive, it’s not an ideal metric, maritime industry is just loving weird and esoteric in general.
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Apr 17, 2020 18:15
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Bar Ran Dun posted:The lines are secretive, it’s not an ideal metric, maritime industry is just loving weird and esoteric in general. Well and as someone who has actually prepared 10-ks and Qs, written notes to financial statements and watched as CFOs see what the ratios will be and make changes to accounting policies or find some new reason to reclassify and acquisition... The numbers for publicly traded companies often have a degree of bullshit in them, so ratios derived from those numbers are questionable. And the degree of bullshit rises as companies approach crisis.
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Apr 17, 2020 20:52
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Generally I’m assuming they bullshit in the we’re still good direction not the we are hosed direction?
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Apr 17, 2020 21:10
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Generally I’m assuming they bullshit in the we’re still good direction not the we are hosed direction? Not necessarily. You're far better off missing earnings massively and being like oh it was due to all these one-time things, rather than barely missing earnings over and over. There's a term for it "taking a bath" so if you know you're hosed but your business might be long term viable, you generate all these bullshit expenses or find ways to make long term debts current or something, so you have one horrible quarter. Then you basically use those expenses, which you accrued to that one quarter, over time, making your other quarters better. I can't find the graph, but you'd expect earnings vs earnings expectations graphs to be normally distributed. But they aren't.  It should be a nice bell-shaped curve but somehow it isn't. Weird right. You're far better off going earnings +0,+1,-7,+0,+1,0 than going earnings -1,-1,-2,-1,0. The analysts will chalk up the -7 to whatever bullshit you want, for example valuation allowance changing, or mark down of goodwill, or deciding you need to replace a bunch of machines generating one time losses. Fraud is loving rampant in public companies, in part because the auditors are paid by the companies they are auditing, and there are only 4 big firms capable of auditing most truly big companies.
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Apr 17, 2020 21:18
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pseudanonymous posted:Not necessarily. You're far better off missing earnings massively and being like oh it was due to all these one-time things, rather than barely missing earnings over and over. that's cool to read and interesting. If you have to take a bath I imagine now is an especially good time when the government is throwing so much money around
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Apr 17, 2020 23:12
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A new containership was running like 180 million last I checked. France, Korea, Japan, China what’s the likelihood those governments will bail out lines.
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Apr 17, 2020 23:56
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Other interesting stuff as someone who works in sourcing for a large consumer goods company: Chinese production is back up to almost pre-covid levels and is being retooled for domestic orders as china retail has also opened back up. This is good? as one of the biggest early problems was losing Chinese retail spending moreso than Chinese production, we could shift volumes to other factories but china was 1/3 of the global market. Vietnam, Indonesia, and Philippines are starting to see factory closures and production volume drop as COVID regulations start to increase. Shifting production from those factories back to china but without a solid idea of retail demand. As part of cost cutting we're stopping all air freight for regular orders and doing 100% container shipping. Air rates are rising as passenger flights carried a lot of cargo and those schedules are gone and dedicated air freight hasn't ramped up anyways. Air freight is taking 2-3x longer than normal. It used to be 3 days for expedited CNA to West coast USA, now it's 7-9 if there are no customs delays. There are lots of customs delays. Starting to see bigger supply chain disruptions as subcontractors all start to run out stock, with a 4 level supply chain and 2-3 weeks transit between suppliers we are starting to see stuff from tier-4 plastic compounders shutting two months ago causing our T-1 finished goods factories to be unable to produce. It's a weird time at the moment and distressingly private industry was about as prepared as Trump for some of this stuff. You'd think 25% of your offices shutting for the extended LNY in china would have gotten you to see what was coming and prep Europe and US offices/spending planning but it didn't. It's all idiots all the way up and all they care about is the next quarter.
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Apr 18, 2020 00:30
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If when you heard about the outbreak during LNY and hadn't started re-tooling domestically or making calls to pivot, you are right screwed now.meowmeowmeowmeow posted:
I work with fairly small manufacturing partners but can confirm all the same things. This is my favorite thread on the forums for the sheer usefulness of the information you are all sharing. I'm a pretty fresh operations guy in manufacturing and the value is huge when you feel whats going on but need that confirmation to make a move. Thank you goons.
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Apr 18, 2020 00:41
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https://www.fmc.gov/commissioners-bentzel-and-sola-urge-congressional-leaders-to-address-port-terminal-needs-during-covid-19-crisis/ Terminal operators are screwed unless Congress helps. Apparently they can’t make lease and port authorities aren’t budging.
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May 4, 2020 19:35
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Bar Ran Dun posted:https://www.fmc.gov/commissioners-bentzel-and-sola-urge-congressional-leaders-to-address-port-terminal-needs-during-covid-19-crisis/ They should have saved up 18 months expenses to plan for an emergency! 
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May 4, 2020 21:10
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meowmeowmeowmeow posted:Other interesting stuff as someone who works in sourcing for a large consumer goods company: Sorry to bring up old stuff, I'm just catching this thread now, but as someone who used to work sourcing and distributing for consumer goods companies but not for a few years, this post was like reading a porno. I think once this is over we might start seeing more consumer exports for boat shipping from North Africa and Spain. Particularly in items for the home produced from non oil natural resources
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May 4, 2020 22:20
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https://www.nwseaportalliance.com/sites/default/files/void-sailings.pdf Lotta skipped port calls in Seattle Tacoma. It’s worse than it looks if one knows which services had heavy volumes in the past.
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May 6, 2020 17:42
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Are they skipped because they don’t want to put in in Seattle, or because the whole shipment is cancelled, or something else I don’t know why I even bother guessing?
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May 6, 2020 18:21
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i heard on the radio recently that even though slaughterhouses were declared essential businesses, something like 1/3 of national capacity was shut down as a result of staffing problems and complications from social distancing. A repersentative of the nations pork farmers was saying that as a result, farmers were not able to sell their livestock, and the result will almost certainly be thousands of animals getting euthanized and their meat destroyed without processing. It was really shocking to hear a representative of the meat industry go on air and straight up say, when asked by the interviewer what the impact of this would be, that Americans would have to prepare either for meat shortages or significant price increases. Crazy times.
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May 6, 2020 18:54
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Subjunctive posted:Are they skipped because they don’t want to put in in Seattle, or because the whole shipment is cancelled, or something else I don’t know why I even bother guessing? Not enough cargo to justify the ships calling the port every week anymore. Container volume has fallen so they’re cutting ships from services to save money, looks like though at least august.
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May 6, 2020 20:06
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https://gcaptain.com/container-char..._eid=f44579e677
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May 13, 2020 16:25
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/australia-china-trade-tensions-raise-fears-over-future-of-agricultural-exports Nothing has quite happened yet, but might be showing some increased propensity for throwing tariffs around.
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May 13, 2020 21:04
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Just got a quick update from my export guy. Airfreight is up 300% and they are turning passenger jets into cargo shippers. They are canceling 2/5's of ships coming out of Shanghai.
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May 14, 2020 00:42
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I forget did I post the fmc letter here? All the terminal operators (the stevedores) are in trouble and two of the commissioners sent an open you better do something or lol hosed letter to Congress.
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May 14, 2020 02:09
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https://www.fmc.gov/commissioners-bentzel-and-sola-urge-congressional-leaders-to-address-port-terminal-needs-during-covid-19-crisis/ “We have specific concerns about the abilities of the United States marine terminal operators to continue operating considering their lease and other contractual commitments to local port authorities.”
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May 14, 2020 02:11
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lol So Bloomberg sees the problem I saw finally https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...tm_content=view They don’t think it’ll break because governments will prop up the supply chains. They might, sure would have a better chance if ours weren’t run by an idiot advise by fascists who don’t want to.
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May 16, 2020 17:28
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