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Bar Ran Dun posted:https://www.fmc.gov/commissioners-bentzel-and-sola-urge-congressional-leaders-to-address-port-terminal-needs-during-covid-19-crisis/ It's really insane how Port Comissioners are not budging on leases, who do the hell do they think is going to take them over?
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May 18, 2020 21:49
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Port authorities should be state level entities at a minimum. And they should be budging on this but welp here we are. Bet they in GA and SC where they are state level.
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May 19, 2020 00:39
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I feel like this situation applies to the concept of rent in a very general fashion in this pandemic. We've had a number of businesses locally announce that they are shutting down due to landlord situations, not to mention residential evictions, and I can't help but think: what's the benefit to the landlord? No one's going to take over the space and start paying rent right now, and would it not be a far better situation to support tenants now when everything is horribly hosed up, so that they can hit the ground running ASAP and start paying rent when the situation improves? No, now you've got an empty space, so you're getting no rent, and also you're going to roll the dice on someone taking it over and being a good long-term tenant at some point down the road. It seems incredibly, incredibly short-sighted and utterly stupid.
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May 19, 2020 01:02
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PT6A posted:I feel like this situation applies to the concept of rent in a very general fashion in this pandemic. We've had a number of businesses locally announce that they are shutting down due to landlord situations, not to mention residential evictions, and I can't help but think: what's the benefit to the landlord? No one's going to take over the space and start paying rent right now, and would it not be a far better situation to support tenants now when everything is horribly hosed up, so that they can hit the ground running ASAP and start paying rent when the situation improves? No, now you've got an empty space, so you're getting no rent, and also you're going to roll the dice on someone taking it over and being a good long-term tenant at some point down the road. If the landlord is an investment fund, they may have specific rules in place about what they do in cases of non-payment, as part of the investment structure. That’s my only guess, really.
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May 19, 2020 01:06
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PT6A posted:
First  But also, if you know you’re in a hole stop digging. The only thing most of these business owners have to look forward to is more debt and more failure, and no bail out. Remulak fucked around with this message at 01:09 on May 19, 2020 |
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May 19, 2020 01:07
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PT6A posted:I feel like this situation applies to the concept of rent in a very general fashion in this pandemic. We've had a number of businesses locally announce that they are shutting down due to landlord situations, not to mention residential evictions, and I can't help but think: what's the benefit to the landlord? No one's going to take over the space and start paying rent right now, and would it not be a far better situation to support tenants now when everything is horribly hosed up, so that they can hit the ground running ASAP and start paying rent when the situation improves? No, now you've got an empty space, so you're getting no rent, and also you're going to roll the dice on someone taking it over and being a good long-term tenant at some point down the road. Commercial leases are long-term, so it's possible the market changed enough the landlord is happy about the excuse to break the lease. Of course, the market has also changed in another way very recently!
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May 19, 2020 01:16
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PT6A posted:I feel like this situation applies to the concept of rent in a very general fashion in this pandemic. We've had a number of businesses locally announce that they are shutting down due to landlord situations, not to mention residential evictions, and I can't help but think: what's the benefit to the landlord? No one's going to take over the space and start paying rent right now, and would it not be a far better situation to support tenants now when everything is horribly hosed up, so that they can hit the ground running ASAP and start paying rent when the situation improves? No, now you've got an empty space, so you're getting no rent, and also you're going to roll the dice on someone taking it over and being a good long-term tenant at some point down the road. The way commercial real estate is financed leads to a lot of perverse incentives, because the financing is based on theoretical returns based on theoretical rental rates multiplied by theoretical occupancy rates. Many times both the landlord and the tenant would be better off if they cut a deal, except for how the financing is structured.
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May 19, 2020 05:11
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PT6A posted:It seems incredibly, incredibly short-sighted and utterly stupid. Smells like capitalism.
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May 19, 2020 13:08
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“WSJ” posted:
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Jun 19, 2020 17:31
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Looks like corn and soy have big US crops this year. https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/usda-raises-the-us-corn-soybean-yield-expectations
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Aug 12, 2020 21:00
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I don’t see a mention of that derecho’s impact on Iowa corn output.
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Aug 13, 2020 14:42
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Yeah I started see articles about derecho today. I’m waiting for an update.
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Aug 13, 2020 16:04
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https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2020/08/12/up-half-iowas-corn-yield-could-lost-derecho-damage/3357009001/
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Aug 13, 2020 20:19
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So are corn stocks up or are the stalks down? This is all very confusing, I'm not an agronomist.
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Aug 13, 2020 20:23
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Looks like we thought they would be up and then Iowa got flattened.
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Aug 13, 2020 20:35
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“SHIPPING LINES LEARN TO MAKE MONEY BY BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND When countries began locking down their economies early this year in the face of the spreading coronavirus pandemic, the world’s container lines braced for a steep decline in shipping demand. Analysts warned that massive financial losses would soon follow at seagoing companies that carry the lion’s share of global trade. Trade flows have in fact fallen, but the red ink for shipping lines never came. Instead, profitability across the business is growing and some operators are reporting their best earnings in years. Shipping lines continually slashed prices in years past to compete in declining markets. Under the health crisis that has rocked the global economy, however, carrier executives have reined back capacity in a display of discipline they’d long talked about but had never undertaken. Container shipping has been marred by chronic excess capacity, and carriers have responded by undercutting each other in endless battles for market share at the expense of profit margins. Freight rates have often gone into tailspins that left revenues barely covering operational costs. As demand collapsed from the city lockdowns in March and April, however, liner companies started canceling sailings and sidelining ships. At the same, falling oil prices because of pandemic-induced lockdowns sent fuel costs for carriers down sharply, a reversal from expectations that bunker costs would soar after a mandatory switch to cleaner fuels. “All of a sudden, supply came in line with demand with huge fuel savings as a bonus,” said Jonathan Roach, container analyst at London-based Braemar ACM Shipbroking. “Doom and gloom forecasts were put aside and so far, we are looking at a highly profitable year.” “We took out 20% of capacity, which saved us costs and boosted utilization rates, mitigating the fall in volumes,” said Maersk Chief Executive Søren Skou. “We managed our network like UPS and FedEx, adjusting capacity to demand and we will continue to do so.” The capacity cuts kept rates firm in the early weeks of the lockdowns. But the prices have been surging since then as demand has recovered. The cost to send a box across the Pacific to the U.S. West Coast reached $3,639 the week ending Aug. 28, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, an all-time high and more than twice the rate in January. The price index for shipping from Shanghai to the U.S. East Coast pushed past $4,200 a box, a five-year high and up from $2,562 in the beginning of the year. The turnaround suggests a new business approach has taken hold. Long-held convictions that big fleets and dominant market share would somehow, someday lead to profits have faded. Operators now insist they’ll deploy capacity only where it will pay. “The Covid era accelerated how fast the carriers needed to pivot with regard to survival,” said Mario Cordero, executive director of the port of Long Beach, Calif., and former head of the Federal Maritime Commission, which regulates shipping in the U.S. “Covid made it clear that the carriers need to have sustainable rates to stay in business,” he said. (The Wall Street Journal, 8/30/2020)
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Sep 4, 2020 16:48
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So to expand on what that articles means, the container lines rather than imploding have severely withdrawn capacity as demand is starting to return they aren’t increasing it so rates are increasing. They seem to be doing this collectively and not breaking ranks in it for the moment. My personal suspicion is that we will hear container shipping called a cartel at some point in the future. Anyway instead of capacity falling through failure of companies it’s falling for this reason instead. These new higher freight rates are likely to be normal going forward, unless one of the carriers breaks ranks and the race to grow ever larger starts up again. Anyway now every global supply chain will be more expensive going forward and we get to see what that causes going forward in the viability of global supply chains.
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Sep 4, 2020 23:46
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Truly the market moves in mysterious ways
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Sep 5, 2020 00:27
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Anyway now every global supply chain will be more expensive going forward and we get to see what that causes going forward in the viability of global supply chains. I'm going to go ahead and assume it involves the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.
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Sep 5, 2020 03:43
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The Lone Badger posted:I'm going to go ahead and assume it involves the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. It might not. It might mean more industry moving back to developed nations. It won’t be what it was but it’ll be something? But in the sense of the whole world yeah the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. It’s certainly going to be a new direction.
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Sep 5, 2020 06:34
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Going to explore wonderful new ways to gently caress everyone.
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Sep 5, 2020 10:38
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What? Libertarian philosophy fails to account for opponents working together out of greed? Well, I never. Yeah, eventually some CEO with a big positive break point in their bonus schedule is going to look at that excess capacity sitting around doing nothing and try and swing for the fences but until then it’s going to disrupt the heck out of everything.
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Sep 5, 2020 14:35
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/business/coal-ships-china-australia.html?referringSource=articleShare Butt load of ships with Australian coal stuck off the coast in China. Chinese aren’t allowing discharge. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 02:28 on Dec 28, 2020 |
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Dec 27, 2020 00:54
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Oh yeah https://gcaptain.com/one-apus-arrives-in-kobe-revealing-cargo-loss-of-epic-proportions/ And ONE had another decent sized stack collapse about a month before that too. I’d expect odd things to be out of stock on the West Coast for a while.
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Dec 27, 2020 04:48
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Bar Ran Dun posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/business/coal-ships-china-australia.html?referringSource=articleShare Is this a phrase you can easily parse? Because I can't. And since I assume you work/ed in the shipping industry from previous posts you can hopefully layman-esque it for us? Also nyt is a paywall for me. Sekhmnet fucked around with this message at 09:07 on Dec 27, 2020 |
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Dec 27, 2020 09:04
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Sekhmnet posted:Is this a phrase you can easily parse? Because I can't. And since I assume you work/ed in the shipping industry from previous posts you can hopefully layman-esque it for us? Also nyt is a paywall for me. I'm pretty sure it means "China isn't allowing discharge". But autocorrect is a sorcerer's apprentice. Anyway the Chinese haven't been allowing Australian coal transports to unload, some have been sitting in Chinese ports for 6 months, and the crew are having a hard time.
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Dec 27, 2020 10:13
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pseudanonymous posted:But autocorrect is a sorcerer's apprentice. It was this, was supposed to be “aren’t”. Yep about 70 ships have just been sitting there for months. Coal can self heat and spontaneously combust too under certain conditions. They don’t put those fires out, they discharge the burning coal to the pier still burning. Australian coal is mostly good coal, not poo poo like Indonesian coal. But if any of those ships are carrying blends that had differing moisture levels they are probably getting worried.
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Dec 28, 2020 02:32
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Mr Hootington posted:Number lady blesses us with strong charts of number Cross posting from CSPAM. European supply chains are hosed. Most of the bad effects are hitting European supply chains rather than us ones.
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Jan 19, 2021 17:59
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25% tariffs on Chinese products since the beginning of the year, new sanctions and a lack of substrate to produce computer chips are certainly being felt a great deal in the US.
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Jan 19, 2021 18:03
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Oh yeah those things are definitely being felt. But cost per 40’ container went from roughly the same, like 1.5 to 2 grand for either to 9 grand for Asia to Europe vs 4 grand to Asia to US West Coast. I’m betting East Coast is probably in line with Europe. This is a huge relative advantage for US West coast supply chains, even if things are worse for everybody.
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Jan 19, 2021 18:23
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Oh yeah those things are definitely being felt. Great incentive to ship by rail from China to Europe. We shipped by that method a few times the last 2 years, but I can see it increasing this year. Used to be shipping by sea was cheaper with much slower speed, I'm willing to bet the price is similar now with much faster rail service.
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Jan 25, 2021 05:26
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Great incentive to ship by rail from China to Europe. We shipped by that method a few times the last 2 years, but I can see it increasing this year. Used to be shipping by sea was cheaper with much slower speed, I'm willing to bet the price is similar now with much faster rail service. Careful if your warehouses or subcontractors are used to one mode and then switch to another. I used to see companies all the time try to ship by vessel, using providers only familiar with trucking even for things like haz. They eventually get hosed. Ocean to anything else is probably okay because ocean is the hardest to secure for, but there are a couple of cargos i can think of that would be fine on a vessel that rail fucks right up. Statues are an best example.
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Jan 25, 2021 07:53
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Careful if your warehouses or subcontractors are used to one mode and then switch to another. I used to see companies all the time try to ship by vessel, using providers only familiar with trucking even for things like haz. They eventually get hosed. Yea definitely different shipping via rail as opposed to ocean. Speaking of which, what’s going on with all the containers being lost at sea these past few months. Seems unusually high.
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Jan 25, 2021 09:51
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GlassEye-Boy posted:Yea definitely different shipping via rail as opposed to ocean. Speaking of which, what’s going on with all the containers being lost at sea these past few months. Seems unusually high. Absurdly historically high. And at-least one of the real big ones the weather wasn’t really that bad, no weather protest letter. I’ve been hearing that it’s bad twist locks. Another possibility is that perhaps we’ve hit the limits of maximum stack heights for on deck containers due to tipping forces.
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Jan 26, 2021 05:18
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I'm not in the industry anymore, and was only tangentially involved anyway, but two random thoughts that're not worth anything: 1. My understanding was that under loaded ships tended to have the containers stacked around the periphery of the ship (I was told this, not sure if true). Higher % around the edges = higher % losses 2. If ships are running slower to save fuel, like they did back around the great recession, more time at sea/container = higher chance of loss
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Feb 3, 2021 04:46
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DeadlyMuffin posted:I'm not in the industry anymore, and was only tangentially involved anyway, but two random thoughts that're not worth anything: Neither of these are the case. It’s tangential but if there is interest I’ll write about how stowage generally works on containerships now and some of the basics of cargo securing. For 2, generally slower means lower forces acting on cargo.
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Feb 3, 2021 07:29
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Neither of these are the case. It’s tangential but if there is interest I’ll write about how stowage generally works on containerships now and some of the basics of cargo securing. 
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Feb 3, 2021 08:26
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Neither of these are the case. It’s tangential but if there is interest I’ll write about how stowage generally works on containerships now and some of the basics of cargo securing. Yes please, would be nice to know something about this.
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Feb 3, 2021 10:57
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Neither of these are the case. It’s tangential but if there is interest I’ll write about how stowage generally works on containerships now and some of the basics of cargo securing. I'm kinda weird and intermodal shipping, and logistics in general, are absolutely fascinating to me...specifically because I'm a railfan and that's a huge component of their operations now. If you could expand on it, I would love to hear the particulars.
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Feb 8, 2021 14:05
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Work’s been busy. Sorry about the delay in getting to that.
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Feb 10, 2021 04:50
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