Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Blitz7x posted:

I really don't think the Browns will be that much better than they were this year. 2020 sure.

They'll be fine I'm sure, but my point was that in my eyes they're on the upswing whereas the Ravens definitely have way more question marks in terms of roster (but COULD be really good if they work that defensive magic and Lamar starts throwing the drat ball).

Roster-wise, the Browns are an extremely solid team right now. Whether that will turn into something notable is real hard to say

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

a neat cape posted:

There are gonna be more Chargers fans in Mexico City than L.A.

Was gonna say, having that game in Mexico City is actually a disadvantage.

Blitz of 404 Error
Sep 19, 2007

Joe Biden is a top 15 president
Chiefs are missing playoffs

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Blitz7x posted:

Chiefs are missing playoffs

The playoffs aren't the teams battling for the top pick I know this might surprise you

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Grittybeard posted:

Was gonna say, having that game in Mexico City is actually a disadvantage.

Only one QB can throw 100 yards in that air.

What's Spanish for "go deep, dog"

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

kiimo posted:

Only one QB can throw 100 yards in that air.

What's Spanish for "go deep, dog"

Yeah Mahomes' arm is actually too strong for Mexico City. He's gonna overthrow everything.

The elevation will help Philip. :smug:

It's gonna be a good game

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

kiimo posted:

Only one QB can throw 100 yards in that air.

What's Spanish for "go deep, dog"

Vete al fondo, perro

which literally translates as "go to the bottom, bitch"

Croatoan
Jun 24, 2005

I am inevitable.
ROBBLE GROBBLE
Hey! I did it! It only took one year but my Chiefs hate shined through, I just said "I hate Mahomes" and meant it! I mean, he's loving incredible but I can now hate him as a rival rather than fawn over him.

As for if Denver will recover this year, let's see if Fangio can fix our defence. Offence is still hosed.

No Butt Stuff
Jun 10, 2004

Croatoan posted:

Hey! I did it! It only took one year but my Chiefs hate shined through, I just said "I hate Mahomes" and meant it! I mean, he's loving incredible but I can now hate him as a rival rather than fawn over him.

As for if Denver will recover this year, let's see if Fangio can fix our defence. Offence is still hosed.



https://twitter.com/ChildrensMercy/status/1131690966845480961

Croatoan
Jun 24, 2005

I am inevitable.
ROBBLE GROBBLE
Not gonna fall for it!

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Croatoan posted:

Hey! I did it! It only took one year but my Chiefs hate shined through, I just said "I hate Mahomes" and meant it! I mean, he's loving incredible but I can now hate him as a rival rather than fawn over him.

As for if Denver will recover this year, let's see if Fangio can fix our defence. Offence is still hosed.

I may end up disliking him a little bit (hate might be out of reach) even though I don't hate or care about the Chiefs in any way.

I do have a bit of a preference for underdogs, is why. And I don't like teams that monopolize all the winning, I like change and flux and variation at the top of the NFL. So we'll have to see: is Mahomes so good that he can simply dominate? Or is he just really really good but won't be able to form the sort of dynasty that Brady did? So we'll have to see what happens there

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
Mahomes is fun to watch though, he constantly eschews the open guy near the sticks for a 30 yard play instead. I actually hope he starts checking down a bit more

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

SHOAH NUFF posted:

Mahomes is fun to watch though, he constantly eschews the open guy near the sticks for a 30 yard play instead. I actually hope he starts checking down a bit more

That's true, that's a huge advantage that he has over Brady (99% of the time anyways). He's damned fun to watch and that for sure gives him a lot of credit with me. I'm fine for him to win a superbowl or two over his career but none of this 7 win poo poo

LiquidFriend
Apr 5, 2005

kiimo posted:

He won't have to. The Chiefs' defense biggest weakness by far was linebackers in coverage. That has completely changed. After that it was safeties. That has completely changed. Mahomes doesn't need 50/5000 to win it all and just lol at not making the playoffs with that schedule.
Corner is still very questionable.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

LiquidFriend posted:

Corner is still very questionable.

I read this and had to re-think my feelings on that.

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2019/05/20/kansas-city-chiefs-coverage-improvement-reasons-2019-tyrann-mathieu/


quote:

I went back and crunched the Pro Football Focus numbers of the cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers that had the most coverage snaps for the Chiefs last season and averaged up the coverage grades for those position groups. Here’s what I found.

RELATED PRODUCT
Kansas City Football Die-Hard Fan Hooded Sweatshirt
Kansas City Football Die-Hard Fan Hooded Sweatshirt
Buy Now!
Steven Nelson: 837 coverage snaps, 71.2 coverage grade
Orlando Scandrick: 796 coverage snaps, 70.2 coverage grade
Kendall Fuller: 777 coverage snaps, 70.8 coverage grade
Charvarius Ward: 154 coverage snaps, 65.5 coverage grade
Cornerbacks’ combined coverage grade: 70.4

Ron Parker: 682 coverage snaps, 62.7 coverage grade
Eric Murray: 517 coverage snaps, 66.9 coverage grade
Daniel Sorensen: 280 coverage snaps, 64.9 coverage grade
Jordan Lucas: 228 coverage snaps, 61.7 coverage grade
Safeties’ combined coverage grade: 64.2

Anthony Hitchens: 591 coverage snaps, 51.0 coverage grade
Reggie Ragland: 285 coverage snaps, 57.7 coverage grade
Dorian O’Daniel: 232 coverage snaps, 65.2 coverage grade
Linebackers’ combined coverage grade: 55.7

To summarize those numbers, the cornerback coverage was average, the safety coverage was bad, and the linebacker coverage was awful. I wanted to back those numbers up even more and Sam at @PFF_Chiefs (go give him a follow if for some reason you aren’t already) was able to hook me up with the opposing quarterbacks QB Rating when targeting each of those position groups last season.

quote:

Opposing QB Ratings by Position Group:

Targeting Cornerbacks: 84.2 (6th in the NFL)
Targeting Safeties: 107.9 (28th in the NFL)
Targeting Off-ball Linebackers: 113.8 (29th in the NFL)

Those numbers are staggering. Despite some of the occasional big plays allowed by the Chiefs cornerbacks their overall passer rating allowed was actually one of the better in all the NFL. The trio of Kendall Fuller, Nelson, and Scandrick actually combined for an impressive 40 pass break ups. However, the Chiefs coverage by both safeties and linebackers were among the absolute worst in the NFL.

To give you some comparisons for those QB ratings, Joe Flacco had exactly an 84.2 QB Rating when he lost his starting job last season for the Baltimore Ravens. On the other end of the spectrum, KC’s own Patrick Mahomes had exactly a 113.8 QB Rating last season. In 2018, when targeting K.C.’s corners, opposing QBs were Joe Flacco. When targeting Chiefs linebackers, they were Patrick Mahomes. That’s a pretty staggering difference.



TL;DR Summary: When passing against the Chiefs linebackers, opposing QBs are Patrick Mahomes. When passing against the cornerbacks, opposing QBs are Joe Flacco. Lol.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

kiimo posted:

TL;DR Summary: When passing against the Chiefs linebackers, opposing QBs are Patrick Mahomes. When passing against the cornerbacks, opposing QBs are Joe Flacco. Lol.

This matches up with what I remember seeing last year. The corners weren't excellent (and they definitely had WAY too many complete busts in coverage) but individually none of them seemed that awful. They probably should've prevented more gains but they were usually right there.

Teams were purposefully taking advantage of the linebackers and safeties in coverage, though. You saw the Chargers all the time split out guys wide right before the snap to confuse the coverage and get safeties/linebackers isolated on WRs and RBs

e: YOU CAN'T PLAY SAFETY IN THIS LEAGUE IF YOU CAN'T COVER. Even linebackers, of whom we demand absurd feats of athleticism, have to be able to cover to some extent or they won't play that many snaps. So not sure how the Chiefs ended up with so many guys that can't do that

Play fucked around with this message at 19:30 on May 24, 2019

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
The Chargers are gonna be like 11-5 or 12-4 this year and it's going to be fun

Strobe
Jun 30, 2014
GW BRAINWORMS CREW

a neat cape posted:

The Chargers are gonna be like 11-5 or 12-4 this year and it's going to be fun

Whichever team wins in Week 17 will be the 1-seed, whichever team loses will be the 5-seed.

I think it'd be hilarious for them to split the series and both go like 14-2. Not likely, but hilarious.

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

Play posted:

e: YOU CAN'T PLAY SAFETY IN THIS LEAGUE IF YOU CAN'T COVER. Even linebackers, of whom we demand absurd feats of athleticism, have to be able to cover to some extent or they won't play that many snaps. So not sure how the Chiefs ended up with so many guys that can't do that

Also worth noting how the scheme just did not change no matter what the other team was doing. There were no adjustments at all.

I remember wondering if someone would hire Bob Sutton away as a head coach if he kept things up when he first got to KC and the D was balling. First off I wondered that because I was a goddamned idiot, second it turns out he just ran the same thing over and over again and prime Derrick Johnson and healthy Eric Berry with some decent corners were really good at covering up things he was bad at. Along with a still somewhat healthy Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Pre-back injury Dontari Poe was a beast too.

I feel bad for all those guys, they were all good and all kinda had their careers screwed over some.

...

I also feel bad for Tamba because he's apparently insane now.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Strobe posted:

Whichever team wins in Week 17 will be the 1-seed, whichever team loses will be the 5-seed.

I think it'd be hilarious for them to split the series and both go like 14-2. Not likely, but hilarious.

Whoever gets the 5th seed at 14-2 is gonna be so goddamn mad

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

I feel like this is one of those "Did you know?" trivia questions.

Did you know that in 2018 Bob Sutton ran a total of zero stunts on the defensive line?

Did you know when Tom Brady completed a gazillion 6 yard passes to the flats in the AFC Championship Game Bob Sutton didn't adjust his defense once?

Did you know that Bob Sutton hosed Kansas City out of a Superbowl and now he's loving fired and hopefully spending all his time not weeding his garden and blaming his herbs for having no skills defending against them as they slowly die?

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!
To clarify my last post I mostly feel bad for their legacies because it seems like the defense was consistently less than the sum of its parts looking back. All of those guys got paid eventually.

I mostly feel bad for DJ, he was excellent for so long and I feel like if the defense as a whole was better he'd have been recognized outside of Chiefs fans.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray
Yeah Sutton was loving awful. That was the other thing: he constantly allowed his linebackers, safeties, and occasionally OLBs to get isolated in coverage against WRs, TEs and RBs. His failure to adapt meant teams basically had a cheat code for beating the Chiefs defense.

Now running a static defense is a legitimate strategy. Some of the best defense of all time have worked like that. They put good players in the scheme that fits them the best and then dares opposing offense to throw whatever they can at that. Oftentimes it works, but you need a scheme that is extremely solid at its core (Tampa 2 on a 4-3 defense is one of the more frequent schemes that is used like this).

The problem is when your scheme is total poo poo that can easily be taken advantage of and doesn't fit the strengths of your players. That's what Bob Sutton was going

LiquidFriend
Apr 5, 2005

kiimo posted:

I read this and had to re-think my feelings on that.

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2019/05/20/kansas-city-chiefs-coverage-improvement-reasons-2019-tyrann-mathieu/





TL;DR Summary: When passing against the Chiefs linebackers, opposing QBs are Patrick Mahomes. When passing against the cornerbacks, opposing QBs are Joe Flacco. Lol.
I'm not all that concerned about the LB group. The Chiefs will be in subs a lot still and will go for more DB's over LB's. Werthers' had them doing some funky assignments and splitting up the coaching between inside and outside was horrible.

House is a major upgrade from the fat guy they had coaching the inside linebackers last season and I'm even less concerned with the spot after the Lee trade.

Strobe
Jun 30, 2014
GW BRAINWORMS CREW
So what are the odds the Chiefs defense gets better? The homer in me is already expecting a top half of the league defense. Someone inject some reality into that.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Strobe posted:

So what are the odds the Chiefs defense gets better? The homer in me is already expecting a top half of the league defense. Someone inject some reality into that.

It'll be better.

Not that much better.

Entirely new defensive system and coaches and a lot of new players.

LiquidFriend
Apr 5, 2005

I think they'll get a lot better vs. the run, but if they have any injuries at corner at all they are hosed.

Chromatic
Jan 21, 2005

You guys ready to hear a satanic song?
Part of me wants the Chiefs to just say gently caress it and keep Tyreek Hill. Just say gently caress it and turn full heel.

I want to Super Bowl dammit

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

If he did not abuse his kid then all he is is the same poo poo bag who abused his girlfriend that one time that we know of. It would be no different than cheering for him last season.

If he did abuse his kid then he is not playing for anyone and may in fact go to jail so the situation will take care of itself.

The situation that I don’t want to is to release him and then some team picks him up for free and it suddenly is a feel good story for that team ala Cleveland. gently caress that

Durandal1707
Oct 11, 2013

Grittybeard posted:

Also worth noting how the scheme just did not change no matter what the other team was doing. There were no adjustments at all.

I remember wondering if someone would hire Bob Sutton away as a head coach if he kept things up when he first got to KC and the D was balling. First off I wondered that because I was a goddamned idiot, second it turns out he just ran the same thing over and over again and prime Derrick Johnson and healthy Eric Berry with some decent corners were really good at covering up things he was bad at. Along with a still somewhat healthy Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Pre-back injury Dontari Poe was a beast too.

I feel bad for all those guys, they were all good and all kinda had their careers screwed over some.

The main thing I remember about the Chiefs' 2013 defense was that they blitzed a loving ton and got a ton of turnovers early on that season. Then teams started figuring out how to beat that blitz - IIRC with a lot of shallow crossters - and poo poo sort of fell apart late that season. Then they reverted into running that bend-but-don't-break D after that.

I think Sutton was a good DC for like, his first 3 years with the Chiefs - god knows his defenses loving owned the Chargers for like half a decade - but he had absolutely no ability to adjust that defense once the Chiefs started losing talent or they started getting injured. Eg all the guys you just mentioned.

Chromatic
Jan 21, 2005

You guys ready to hear a satanic song?
early Sutton-era Chiefs defense were not short on Talent.

Berry - all pro potential future hall-of-famer
Houston - All Pro. 22 loving sacks.
Tamba - multiple Time pro bowler
Poe - all pro and top 3 in his prime
DJ - all pro top three in his prime
Flowers - pro bowler

Most semi competent at the time defensive coordinators would have done well

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling
The 2014-2015 Chiefs also had Sean Smith when he was very good. 2015 had Sean Smith playing the best football of his career and DROTY Marcus Peters as the starting CBs

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Strobe posted:

So what are the odds the Chiefs defense gets better? The homer in me is already expecting a top half of the league defense. Someone inject some reality into that.

To me, the target should be maybe 20th best defense in the league, which would be a large improvement. The thing is, they gained some decent to good players and lost some decent to good players. I liked the Thornhill and Saunders picks but they are rookies and the only other player they added in the draft was a sixth round cornerback. I do really like the Mathieu and Clark additions, but they also lost some good players on the D line. Darron Lee has had one decent year after two awful ones and really most of his statistics came in only two games. Purely on a talent perspective, they've added a bit but nobody world-changing

At the same time, it's really hard to predict. Maybe these guys all click and the scheme works in their favor and they come out playing great. It's hard to quantify how detrimental Sutton's schemes have been and how well they'll be able install the new scheme with so many new players on defense. My guess is that the improvement is marginal at first and maybe increases later.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
Meanwhile I don't think the Chargers having a top 5 offense and top 5 defense are out of the question

Why is it still May

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

a neat cape posted:

Meanwhile I don't think the Chargers having a top 5 offense and top 5 defense are out of the question

Why is it still May

That Chargers defense has an absolutely amazing roster. If they aren't top 5 that will be a failure, they should be right around the very top.

If I was to nitpick the team the offensive line is slightly concerning. I thought they were really struggling towards the tail end of the season and they didn't do much in the draft or free agency to change it. Okung's the best guy there by a mile, Pouncey is decent when not injured, but apart from that there are definitely some questions there, with a a few players that haven't played at all, some that haven't played much and others that haven't played well when they have played. It was actually a bottom 5 O-line last year, which honestly makes it amazing what they accomplished on offense.

Basically, they're betting on a few young players taking a step forward. Which a lot of teams are, but it's still an offensive line that wasn't great last year almost unchanged.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
They're basically depending on Dan Feeney and Forest Lamp to step in and solidify the guard spots. Right tackle is still a major issue and is the most concerning position on the team right now.

They'll make up for this, in theory, with a lot of check down passes to Gordon and Eckler and Jackson (RB depth is insanely good), and getting Hunter Henry back is basically an addition from last year's team.

WR is a bit thin with Tyrell leaving, but who here is gonna be surprised if Rivers turns Dylan Cantrell into a passable WR3?

Durandal1707
Oct 11, 2013
They mainly need Feeney to take a step forward - he had kind of a down sophomore season last year after a solid rookie campaign - and for something to pan out at RT between Lamp/Tevi/Pipkins. Receiving wise, losing Tyrell kind of sucks but he was gonna get paid a lot and it wasn't gonna happen with the Chargers because of their cap situation. They're getting Henry back, which will be huge as Ross noted because Green's not really a consistent starter at TE, and Gates basically can only play like 10 snaps a game anymore if that. They're probably banking on Mike Williams taking a big step forward this year and as mentioned, all of their RBs can catch out of the backfield.

Defensively aside for getting Bosa back, they shored up two of their weak spots last year by drafting a DT and a legit centerfield safety to pair with Derwin. (and they can swap between box/center field more effectively in theory than they could with Addae/James) Offensively it might be a little dicey but defensively they should be one of the best units in the league.

Strobe
Jun 30, 2014
GW BRAINWORMS CREW
It's gonna be really funny when the Chargers have a Top 5 Offense and Defense and still come in 2nd in the division.

a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
Having not watched one snap of Adderly I'm already declaring him a massive upgrade over Addae and can't wait to see him and Derwin on the field together.

Casey is still good but the other CB spot is gonna be a little rough since I assume they're gonna keep King at the nickel.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Highline
Mar 28, 2009

a neat cape posted:

Having not watched one snap of Adderly I'm already declaring him a massive upgrade over Addae and can't wait to see him and Derwin on the field together.

Casey is still good but the other CB spot is gonna be a little rough since I assume they're gonna keep King at the nickel.

I was really hoping KC would pick up Adderly. That backfield is going to be insanely good for the next 10 years.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply