August 7th Primaries!: Abdul take our energy!

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Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

ELECTION DAY BITCHES :siren:

Mostly stealing this from those nerds in Vox

The things to watch out for

quote:

Ohio 12th Congressional District, special election: Democrats try to break a 30-year losing streak

Who is the Republican? State Sen. Troy Balderson. He was endorsed by Pat Tiberi, whose retirement opened up this seat. He seems as conventional a Republican as you could find.

Who is the Democrat? Franklin County Recorder Danny O�Connor is trying to become the first Democrat to win the 12th in more than 30 years. He�s running on a Conor Lamb-like platform, eschewing the newfound issues of the left like Medicare-for-all and �Abolish ICE,� but hitting his Republican opponent for wanting to cut Medicare and Social Security.

What�s the story? This district, covering parts of suburban Columbus as well as Appalachian areas, always sends a Republican to Congress. Trump won the 12th by 9 points in 2016. Cook ranks it as R+7.

Balderson likely win, Connor trailing by some 2000 votes with provisional ballots still needing to be counted.

quote:

Michigan governor�s primary elections: a tight race on both sides for an open governor�s seat

Who are the Republicans? Republican Gov. Rick Snyder is retiring with dismal approval ratings after the Flint water crisis. In a recent NBC/Marist survey, Attorney General Bill Schuette (36 percent) had a decent lead over Lt. Gov. Brian Calley (26 percent) with lots of voters undecided.

Who are the Democrats? State Senate Democratic leader Gretchen Whitmer narrowly led the NBC/Marist poll (35 percent) versus fellow Democrats Shri Thanedar (25 percent) and Abdul El-Sayed (22 percent) among likely voters.

What�s the story? Both parties still need to get through their August primaries, but NBC/Marist polled a hypothetical general election matchup with the leading candidates. They found Democrat Whitmer leading Republican Schuette 47 percent to 38 percent. Cook thinks it�s a toss-up.

Whitmer win! With Abdul the closest candidate to her total.

quote:

Michigan Sixth Congressional District: a packed field angles to take on Rep. Fred Upton

Who is the Republican? Rep. Fred Upton, who has been in the House since 1986. Formerly chaired the influential Energy and Commerce Committee before being term-limited. You may remember that he played a key role in persuading some holdout Republicans to vote for the House�s Obamacare repeal bill.

Who are the Democrats? It�s a kind of crowded field, with four Democrats on the ballot. Matt Longjohn, a former YMCA and public health official, has raised a lot of money and might have the most compelling story, having jumped into the race after
Upton�s vote for the repeal legislation. David Benac is a Western Michigan history professor trying to run as a grassroots candidate. Rich Eichholz is a scientist arguing for evidenced-based policy. George Franklin, a former Kellogg lobbyist also raising a lot of money, rounds out the field.

What�s the story? The Sixth District is, like the First, more of a long shot for Democrats. Cook has it as Likely Republican and rates the district as R+4. Upton is an entrenched incumbent.

Matt Longjohn win! Will face Upton in Nov.

quote:

Michigan Seventh Congressional District: a seasoned Democrat and a �Berniecrat� seek to topple a Republican incumbent

Who is the Republican? Rep. Tim Walberg, first elected in 2006, though he lost reelection in 2008 before taking back the seat in 2010. Voted for Obamacare repeal and the tax bill.

Who are the Democrats? Gretchen Driskell was put on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee�s Red to Blue list, meaning Washington Democrats like what they�ve seen from her campaign. She comes from a Navy family and has served as a mayor and now in the state legislature. She has run here before, having lost to Walberg in 2016 by 15 points.

Her only competition on the ballot is Steven Friday, running as a self-identified �Berniecrat.�

Driskell win! Will face Walberg in Nov.

a few other MI congressional primary races as well

:siren:

Rashida Tlaib wins in the 13th! First Muslim woman to go to Congress after facing no opponents in Nov!

quote:

Kansas Governor: one of Trump�s biggest allies hopes to walk away with a win

Who are the Republicans? Current Gov. Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Kris Kobach are leading the pack. Jim Barnett and Ken Selzer are also part of a larger group that will be on the ballot.

Colyer � who took over the governor�s position after Sam Brownback became ambassador at large for international religious freedom earlier this year � has painted himself as the more low-key alternative to Kobach, whose close ties to Trump and broader notoriety precede him. Kobach has long been known for touting hardline anti-illegal immigration policies and is among those most associated with the president�s theories on voter fraud.

Who are the Democrats? Former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, state Sen. Laura Kelly, and former Kansas Secretary of Agriculture Josh Svaty are among the contenders. Kelly is seen as the leading candidate given her strong fundraising numbers, though she�s recently been embroiled in a controversy over a vote she made about supporting voter ID laws.

What�s the story? Colyer and Kobach have been polling very close to one another, though Kobach is widely perceived as the candidate with more name recognition who�s expected to come out on top. Some Republicans are worried, however, that Kobach�s extreme of positions on issues like immigration could push voters toward Democrats in the fall.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Kelly has gained some momentum after getting recruited to the race by former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Cook Political Report rates the race as Likely Republican.

Too close to call between Colyer and Kobach! Kelly will face either of them in Nov.

quote:

Kansas�s Third Congressional District: can a Bernie-style progressive win in the conservative Plains?

Who are the Republicans? Rep. Kevin Yoder, in office since 2011. He serves on the House Appropriations Committee.

Who are the Democrats? There are seven Democrats running in this primary, but four names stand out: MMA fighter Sharice Davids, former Bernie Sanders staffer Brent Welder, teacher Tom Niermann, and business leader Sylvia Williams.

What�s the story? Welder, in particular, is looking to test the theory of whether a Sanders-style progressive can win a primary in a conservative state. Since Sanders and rising progressive star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stumped for Welder a few weeks ago, he�s kicked up his fundraising game. But he�s also got competition; Davids has the backing of Emily�s List, and Niermann has the endorsement of some local labor groups. Gun control is a prominent issue for Niermann, a high school teacher.

Davids knocks out all her opponents, wins the 3rd! Will be the first Native American and first openly LGBT congressman from Kansas if she prevails over Yoder in Nov.

Gasque in WA is running as a leftist Dem in the 3rd district, rooting for her.

ncumbent D Herrera Butler wins the race.

Other poo poo happening: A right to work ballot in MO, a three way battle between a centrist councilwoman, a businessman, and a self identified leftist in MI 13th

:siren:

RIGHT TO WORK WINS BY SOME 40 POINTS. WOOOOOOOOOOO!

:siren:

The prosecutor that didn't prosecute Michael Scott's killer was kicked out of office! WOOOOOOOOOOOOO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Efskueqw1g

SKULL.GIF posted:

Of note:

Ohio 12th Congressional District, special election

Balderson (R) vs O'Connor (D). This has picked up national attention as it's one of the last special elections (the last?) until the November midterms, and if the Democrats can continue their streak of special election victories here then the Republicans are going to go into do-or-die mode for November. Polling for this election went from down double digits last month to evens this week.

Michigan gubernational primary

Our boy Abdul El-Sayed is going up against awful person Shri Thanedar and succ-endorsed Gretchen Whitmer. This is a difficult primary to poll so everything's up in the air but El-Sayed has received Bernie's and Ocasio's endorsement and support while Whitmer has the establishment centrists lining up behind her. Thanedar tortures animals.

Turnout will decide who wins -- if El-Sayed can get millennials out to vote for him he has a good shot at winning. Low turnout should favor Whitmer's chances.

Kansas gubernational primary

Against the wishes of the GOP, Trump has endorsed Kobach for Kansas Governor. Both parties are anticipating that Kobach will go down hard in the general if he wins the primary, so this is worth watching to see who comes out on top.

Vox has a breakdown that goes into much more detail about today, including the House district primaries.

Decision Desk HQ and 538 are good places to check for election updates.

Shageletic has issued a correction as of 15:23 on Aug 8, 2018

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:19

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 4, 2024 17:55

wedgie deliverer: Oct 2, 2010

jeb_meme.jpg

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:23

Xelkelvos: Dec 19, 2012

Florida's Senate Primaries are gonna suck.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:23

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

haha I was typing up a thread at the exact same time

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:24

A Gnarlacious Bro: Apr 25, 2007; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Shri for we

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:24

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

This thread is now the chosen one

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:25

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

SKULL.GIF posted:

haha I was typing up a thread at the exact same time

I can add what you wrote to my stupid poo poo, or just post it here who cares

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:25

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Shageletic posted:

I can add what you wrote to my stupid poo poo, or just post it here who cares

Of note:

Ohio 12th Congressional District, special election
- Balderson (R) vs O'Connor (D). This has picked up national attention as it's one of the last special elections (the last?) until the November midterms, and if the Democrats can continue their streak of special election victories here then the Republicans are going to go into do-or-die mode for November. Polling for this election went from down double digits last month to evens this week.
Michigan gubernational primary
- Our boy Abdul El-Sayed is going up against awful person Shri Thanedar and succ-endorsed Gretchen Whitmer. This is a difficult primary to poll so everything's up in the air but El-Sayed has received Bernie's and Ocasio's endorsement and support while Whitmer has the establishment centrists lining up behind her. Thanedar tortures animals.
- Turnout will decide who wins -- if El-Sayed can get millennials out to vote for him he has a good shot at winning. Low turnout should favor Whitmer's chances.
Kansas gubernational primary
- Against the wishes of the GOP, Trump has endorsed Kobach for Kansas Governor. Both parties are anticipating that Kobach will go down hard in the general if he wins the primary, so this is worth watching to see who comes out on top.

Vox has a breakdown that goes into much more detail about today, including the House district primaries.

Decision Desk HQ and 538 are good places to check for election updates.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:26

Xelkelvos: Dec 19, 2012

Make this a thread for all Primaries.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:26

TraderStav: May 19, 2006; It feels like I was standing my entire life and I just sat down

Michigan - 11th District

Who do I vote for that stands a chance at knocking out all these chuds running? Or should I vote on the Republican ticket to get some loser to the top that can get trounced?

Same question for Governor race.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:28

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

there's no fuckin polls in here who cares

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:28

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Xelkelvos posted:

Make this a thread for all Primaries.

Not really necessary, after today and next week, we don't really have any more primaries to my knowledge outside the New York gubernational one later on in September.

Once all the primaries are done I think we'll get a dedicated thread for the November midterms, somewhat separate from Trump news in the Trump thread

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:29

Agean90: Jun 28, 2008

Schnorkles posted:

there's no fuckin polls in here who cares

lol at believing primary polling

lol at thinking they're actual rigorous polls and not just political propoganda wrapped up in stats

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:30

Happy Noodle Boy: Jul 3, 2002

Schnorkles posted:

there's no fuckin polls in here who cares

bring the polls yourself, coward

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:30

Good soup!: Nov 2, 2010

Schnorkles posted:

there's no fuckin polls in here who cares

i do bitch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:32

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

TraderStav posted:

Michigan - 11th District

Who do I vote for that stands a chance at knocking out all these chuds running? Or should I vote on the Republican ticket to get some loser to the top that can get trounced?

Same question for Governor race.

As usual my go-to for learning about a race is Ballotpedia as a starting point: https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan%27s_11th_Congressional_District_election_(August_7,_2018_Democratic_primary)

I'm a leftist so I immediately saw the Justice Democrats endorsement for Fayrouz Saad so that'd be my vote if I'm voting. She has the best platform of all these candidates. Haley Stevens has the backing of the Clinton insiders, for whatever that's worth to you.

For governor, Shri Thanedar is absolutely awful, don't consider him at all. Vote El-Sayed if you're a leftist, vote Whitmer if you hate these perfidious Bernie Brothers.

Don't vote for who you think has the best chance! Vote for who you think is the best candidate!:

https://twitter.com/curaffairs/status/1026581306451415040

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:32

Inspector Hound: Jul 14, 2003

I voted by mail in co, may the fires rise

E not the actual fires, i hope they get put out

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:32

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

TraderStav posted:

Michigan - 11th District

Who do I vote for that stands a chance at knocking out all these chuds running? Or should I vote on the Republican ticket to get some loser to the top that can get trounced?

Same question for Governor race.

I'd def vote for El-Sayed for Governor, as he has the most exciting and potentially positive changing platform *coughmedicareforallcough*. And there's a candidate in the 11th that has been endorsed by Ocasio, Fayrouz Saad, that seems pretty on the level.

e: Michigan is likely to be seeing the most blue gains today, so whatever you thought your vote was before, it's worth a lot more now.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:32

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

Schnorkles posted:

there's no fuckin polls in here who cares

SCAT GET OUTTA HERE YOU NERD PLANE

e: but seriously throw some of them up in here, so we can laugh about them later.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:34

Xelkelvos: Dec 19, 2012

SKULL.GIF posted:

Not really necessary, after today and next week, we don't really have any more primaries to my knowledge outside the New York gubernational one later on in September.

Once all the primaries are done I think we'll get a dedicated thread for the November midterms, somewhat separate from Trump news in the Trump thread

Here's the list of dates:

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2018-state-primary-election-dates.aspx

On the 21st, it's Alaska and Wyoming
28th: Celebrated bastions of old people, Florida and Arizona
September 4: Massachusetts
6th: Delaware
11th New Hampshire
12th: Rhode Island
13th: New York (only state and local)

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:34

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

wtf

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:35

Agean90: Jun 28, 2008

also on August 11th the Hawaii primaries happen. ING!

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:35

Schnorkles: Apr 30, 2015; It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_080118/

here's the one poll that matters i guess. its a fuckin toss-up in the special in Ohio in an R +7 district that was basically ground zero for Trump support.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:36

Xelkelvos: Dec 19, 2012

Idk what the really big races are other than the Florida ones (I live in Florida), but in addition to the Primaries, the State Constitutional Amendments are going on ballot. There are 13 12 and involve all sorts of poo poo.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:37

pancake rabbit: Feb 21, 2011

also fun thing, balderson said yesterday that voters shouldn't have someone from franklin county representing them

part of franklin county is in his district

in a non-escalator timeline this would be a thing that matters but lol

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:39

Ravendas: Sep 29, 2001

Voted for Abdul here in Michigan this morning. I'm really hoping Bernie/AOC combo helps him win it.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:39

Xelkelvos: Dec 19, 2012

Here's a better list of forthcoming primaries that I ripped from WaPo

Alaska August 21
Arizona August 28
Connecticut August 14
Delaware September 6
Florida August 28
Hawaii August 11
Massachusetts September 4
Minnesota August 14
New Hampshire September 11
Rhode Island September 12
Vermont August 14
Wisconsin August 14
Wyoming August 21

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:40

Careful Drums: Oct 30, 2007; by FactsAreUseless

Ravendas posted:

Voted for Abdul here in Michigan this morning. I'm really hoping Bernie/AOC combo helps him win it.

same! i'd be okay with gretchen winning, just please not that fake-rear end shri gently caress

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:44

TraderStav: May 19, 2006; It feels like I was standing my entire life and I just sat down

Careful Drums posted:

same! i'd be okay with gretchen winning, just please not that fake-rear end shri gently caress

Coming from a place of extreme ignorance, other than his awful speaking in commercials, what's wrong with him?

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:46

Careful Drums: Oct 30, 2007; by FactsAreUseless

TraderStav posted:

Michigan - 11th District

Who do I vote for that stands a chance at knocking out all these chuds running? Or should I vote on the Republican ticket to get some loser to the top that can get trounced?

Same question for Governor race.

i voted for Hayley Stevens (e: for the 11th primary) - she's been hustling for that spot since trump got inagurated and once she personally called me on the phone which honestly shows a ton of hustle

also e: thinking longingly about how easily Dave Trott caved and announced his retirement with pressure from indivisible. that shady gently caress

Careful Drums has issued a correction as of 16:51 on Aug 7, 2018

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:47

Ravendas: Sep 29, 2001

Careful Drums posted:

same! i'd be okay with gretchen winning, just please not that fake-rear end shri gently caress

Whitmer getting a ton of money from BCBS, and coming from a BCBS family isn't making me like the chances of getting some kind of single payer system working under her.

I'd obviously still vote for her over her Republican opponent though.

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:47

Careful Drums: Oct 30, 2007; by FactsAreUseless

TraderStav posted:

Coming from a place of extreme ignorance, other than his awful speaking in commercials, what's wrong with him?

he's not committed to poo poo - he's just trying to buy political power. he made a fortunate as a chemicals entreprenur, which is fine, well and good. he was considering running as republican but decided to run democrat to work a "boo hoo Trump hates me because i'm brown" angle.

basically he's trump - in that he's just out for power and financing it via lovely business money - but a democrat

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:48

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

TraderStav posted:

Coming from a place of extreme ignorance, other than his awful speaking in commercials, what's wrong with him?

He's a loving fraud and huckster running as a Democrat

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/24/shri-thanedar-profile-michigan-governor-2018-218831

https://theintercept.com/2018/04/06/shri-thanedar-michigan-millionaire-bernie-sanders-republican/

https://splinternews.com/fake-progressive-running-for-michigan-governor-hello-b-1825110668

https://theintercept.com/2018/07/11/shri-thanedar-michigan-single-payer-health-care/

Also he tortures animals https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/shri-thanedar-animals-rescued-from-lab_us_5ae12c41e4b055fd7fc7be6c

# ? Aug 7, 2018 16:48

Careful Drums: Oct 30, 2007; by FactsAreUseless

Ravendas posted:

Whitmer getting a ton of money from BCBS, and coming from a BCBS family isn't making me like the chances of getting some kind of single payer system working under her.

I'd obviously still vote for her over her Republican opponent though.

yeah extrememly :same: