Phone posted:

who are the 190k people who voted for shri lmao

cyphr555 posted:

last kansas precincts just reported and it's kobach by 191 votes lol

https://ent.sos.ks.gov/kssos_ent.html

nah posted:

Sharice Davids, a former MMA fighter, will go to Washington and FIGHT for means-tested access to tax credits

Careful Drums posted:

but thank God that Shri gently caress didn't win

Dirk Pitt posted:

was he the one who pitched himself as a fiscally responsible Bernie?

Squizzle posted:

so whats the summary from last nite

Shageletic posted:

Spirit bomb fails, Abdul revealed as Vegeta

quote:

YEAR DATE SEAT LEAN MARGIN DEM. SWING

2017 April 4 California 34th* D+69 D+87 +18

April 11 Kansas 4th R+29 R+6 +23

May 25 Montana at large R+21 R+6 +16

June 20 Georgia 6th R+9 R+4 +6

June 20 South Carolina 5th R+19 R+3 +16

Nov. 7 Utah 3rd R+35 R+32 +3

Dec. 12 Alabama Senate R+29 D+2 +31

2018 March 13 Pennsylvania 18th R+21 D+0.3 +22

April 24 Arizona 8th R+25 R+5 +20

June 30 Texas 27th* R+26 R+21 +5

Aug. 7 Ohio 12th† R+14 R+1 +13

Xelkelvos posted:

Here's a better list of forthcoming primaries that I ripped from WaPo

Alaska August 21
Arizona August 28
Connecticut August 14
Delaware September 6
Florida August 28
Hawaii August 11
Massachusetts September 4
Minnesota August 14
New Hampshire September 11
Rhode Island September 12
Vermont August 14
Wisconsin August 14
Wyoming August 21

Xelkelvos posted:

Reposting this. Hawaii is next up to bat on Saturday and next week: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont and South Dakota are having primaries. The Wisconsin race includes the fight for Paul Ryan's seat

Rastor posted:

It's happen: Ing!

Jose posted:

lol just use pen/pencil and paper ffs

Jose posted:

https://twitter.com/spookperson/status/1027024697958064128

univbee posted:

That is the goomba-est head I've ever seen.

quote:

Historically, the primary vote all the Democrats receive relative to all the Republicans is a good indicator of the fall result. As the New York Times' Nate Cohn pointed out in June, the top-two primary results are about as predictive as a poll taken within the final three weeks of the campaign. The catch, though, is that Democrats tend to do slightly better in the general election than in the primary.

With that in mind, look at the results in these three districts: Washington's 3rd, Washington's 5th and Washington's 8th. Not all the votes are in, but if the picture doesn't shift too much, then Republicans could be in big trouble.

Washington 3rd: President Donald Trump won here by 7 points. CNN, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections currently rate the 3rd, represented by Jaime Herrera Beutler, as either likely or solid Republican. That is, the belief is that she has a very good chance of winning reelection.

The cumulative Democratic percentage of the vote so far is actually outpacing the Republican percentage of the vote by a little less than a point. That suggests this race may actually be a toss-up in the fall, not one where Republicans should be heavily favored.

Washington 5th: Trump took this district by 13 points in 2016. CNN, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections currently put the 5th, represented by Cathy McMorris Rodgers, as either lean or likely Republican. Put another way, these ratings indicate that she's thought to be a favorite, though not as heavy as one as Beutler.

The results tonight suggest that this race, like the 3rd, may also be a tossup. Republicans are running about three points ahead of the lone Democrat. If you apply the average shift from the primary to fall results (with Democrats doing better in the fall), this race is forecasted to be razor tight.

Washington 8th: Unlike the 3rd and the 5th, Trump lost here by a three-point margin. That's part of the reason why CNN, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections all believe the 8th District, where Rep. Dave Reichert is retiring, is a toss-up.

This is the equivalent of thinking that a race is 50/50 or close to it.

The Democrats, though, are up by 3 percentage points in the primary. Given how Democrats usually improve upon the primary result in the fall, the forecast would be for them to win by around 5 points in November. That's more like a race that is closer to leans Democratic than it is a toss-up.

Agean90 posted:

WA coincidentally also had a primary win by a progressive. Strange that the centrists are ignoring smaller races. Again.

Agean90 posted:

WA coincidentally also had a primary win by a progressive. Strange that the centrists are ignoring smaller races. Again.

Xelkelvos posted:

Tbf, no one cares about smaller races unless it's the group that's winning them. House seats don't matter too much unless it's part of a mcuh bigger trend. It'll be a big deal if it's a Senate seat or a Governnorship though, regardless of state and regardless of number.

Shageletic posted:

They're prob gonna pay attn when the NYtimes does a piece on her and her DSA TIES

Agean90 posted:

WA coincidentally also had a primary win by a progressive. Strange that the centrists are ignoring smaller races. Again.

Rubber Tucky posted:

Nonsense posted:

Michigan will be left to Republicans in less than 4 years. these Dems won’t last.

univbee posted:

That is the goomba-est head I've ever seen.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

ballot shortages happened all over Michigan yesterday. The ACLU is stepping in to find out what happened. Michigan's primary was a blowout yesterday.

https://twitter.com/jenelaina/status/1027212450222039044

Happy Noodle Boy posted:

wait this is a REAL person?

Happy Noodle Boy posted:

wait this is a REAL person?

LinYutang posted:

Progressives were defeated almost across the board in smaller races in Michigan