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Lord Frisk posted:Same question as many months ago: will there ever be a new Alpha Strike box? because I don't know anyone who plays IRL and megamek can't handle alpha strike so I never got into it enough to buy products for it, like I buy splatbooks and such like shattered fortress despite only being a megamek player 
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Jan 18, 2019 13:17
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 23:20 |
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I got a little bored and I decided to do some projections with Kicktraq. Kicktraq's got their own methods, but what I did was looked at 7 near-peer kickstarters* to see how they tended to grow from the first day and the first three days to the end of the campaign to try to bracket the likely outcomes we're going to see. There was one particular kickstarter that seems to have the same 'shape' of funding curve and I'll refer to that one as the closest-comparable. *Near-peer in this case I defined as "Tabletop-based kickstarters, with significant miniatures for content, from an existing property or company with a decent amount of advance/hype warning, that raised between 1-4 million dollars in total"; that's about as fine a categorization that I wanted to make for this, since I only quickly found 7 comparable kickstarters**. Some things I found: As far as Backers go, all of these kickstarters increased the number of backers at the end of the kickstarter relative to the first day number of backers by between +76% and +188%, while the increase in number of backers at the end relative to the total first three days is between +41% and +99%. The closest-comparable kickstarter increased by +124% and +46% respectively. This projects that the Battletech kickstarter, which had 3,869 backers after three days, is likely to end up between 5,200 and 7,200 backers, with the closest-comparable multiplier putting it at ~5,700 backers. (Note: For those bold ones I'm using the mean +/- 1 standard deviation, not maximum/minimum, hence me saying 'likely') Dollars-per-backer is an interesting stat. There was a pretty sharp bifurcation between kickstarters that didn't see a jump in $/person throughout, and kickstarters that did, almost binomial. The ones that did saw between a 40% increase and 90% increase in money-per-backer between the first three days and the end. The closest comparable was at the low end of that, at +43% increase in dollars per person between the first three days and the final. This projects that the Battletech kickstarter, which was at $194.62 dollars per backer after three days, could easily end up with anywhere from $212 to $360 dollars per backer at the end, with the closest-comparable multiplier putting it at $286.06 dollars per backer. And as far as total money goes, all of these kickstarters had a final take between 2.4-4.2x their first day totals, and between 1.88-2.94x their three-day total. This correlates better with the dollar-per-day stats than the extra backer stats, indicating that the main thing that'll decide where in the range this ends up is how good the last days of the kickstarter are at coaxing more money out of existing backers. This projects that the Battletech kickstarter, which was at $752,970 after three days, is likely to end up between $1.44 million and $2.01 million, with the closest-comparable multiplier putting it near the lower end of that range, $1.58 million. Now, those are just numbers, and numbers always lie, so don't take them as gospel. My own expectation, given the adroitness with which CGL has been doling out stretch goals and such, is that they'll probably be a little better at milking $/person out than this would expect, but a little worse at attracting new backers. I'm going to say we end up right around 5,500 backers, $300/backer, for a total haul of $1.65 million. I'll update this probably Thursday once the first-week numbers are in to see if the conclusions change. **The full list: The 2nd and 3rd Reaper Bones Miniatures kickstarters, Batman: Gotham City Chronicles, Cthulhu Wars Onslaught 2, A Song of Ice and Fire Tabletop Miniatures Game, Bloodborne the Board Game, and the closest-comparable so far is Assassins Creed: Brotherhood of Venice based on the shape of the curves after 3 days Mukaikubo fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Jul 21, 2019 |
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Jul 21, 2019 00:44
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Strobe posted:You should update these numbers on August 6th and see if anything changes. Catalyst is going to be ramming this KS down GenCon's throat. Yeah, I intend to do it at the 7-day mark (the 18th), the 14-day mark (25th,) 21-day mark (8/1), etc. The final days push is a huge wildcard, because none of these other comparable kickstarters was timed so that the endgame rush coincided with a con. I'm skeptical about just how MUCH that'll boost things as far as new people coming in, but that's part of why I'm personally expecting the amount per person to jump from 200-300 dollars by the time the dust settles.
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Jul 21, 2019 00:51
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Xotl posted:That's pretty interesting info: thanks. No worries. Grain of salt because every campaign's different, but If This Proceeds Similarly To Past Comparable Campaigns (tm) it brackets the expectations nicely.
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Jul 21, 2019 02:05
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Mukaikubo posted:I got a little bored and I decided to do some projections with Kicktraq... quote:No worries. Grain of salt because every campaign's different, but If This Proceeds Similarly To Past Comparable Campaigns (tm) it brackets the expectations nicely. So, after 8 days, This Is Not Proceeding Similarly To Past Comparable Campaigns.  It is pretty significantly outpacing them, and at this point 2 million seems to be coming into play. Here's why:How much did the total money brought in by these kickstarters increase from the 1st day total to the first-three-days total? pre:Kickstarter Gain,3-day to 1-day Bloodborne The Board Game +76% Battletech Clan Invasion +62% Assassins Creed Brotherhood of Venice +53% Batman: Gotham City Chronicles +42% Reaper Bones II +34% ASOIAF Tabletop Miniatures Game +33% Reaper Bones III +31% Cthulhu Wars Onslaught 2 +28% pre:Kickstarter Gain, 3rd-to-8th day Battletech Miniatures +34% Bloodborne The Board Game +32% Reaper Bones III +24% Reaper Bones II +16% Cthulhu Wars Onslaught 2 +14% Batman: Gotham City Chronicles +13% ASOIAF Tabletop Miniatures Game +13% Assassins Creed Brotherhood of Venice +9% So where does that leave the projection? Well, the dollars-per-person projection is staying firm, because there the kickstarter looks to be on a typical glide path. That *should* end up higher than it is now by a reasonable amount, between $220 and $340/person. That's tightening because we're getting reasonable data. A closest-comparable of about $270/person at the end still seems a fair guess. The backers are out the window. I had said up to about 7200; with the first week's data in, now the *median* projection is up at 7100, with a +1 standard deviation at 8100. It all depends on if the train of backers keeps coming in at an unsustainable rate. I didn't think it would, and I was clearly wrong as heck. Putting the guess near the high end of that range, at 8,000, doesn't seem too unreasonable. But, uh... let's see, 8,000 backers, $270/person, that comes out to... ah, $2.16 million. And that's inside the bounds of the money projection. Again, it's jumped up a ton, and it now spans $1.6-$2.25 million, so that estimate would be on the high side. Again, it's all down to the crazy number of people that have hopped on board. If GenCon taps into another wave of people like the other kickstarters didn't get, $2.1-2.2 million is easily plausible; if things peter out and we start behaving more like other miniature kickstarters, somewhere in the $1.8-2.0 million range is more likely. This is pretty shenanigans-y, in a good way. (For reference: Kicktraq's projections now have error bars between $1.8-$3.0 million. I just don't see 3 million as plausible, though I could be wrong; it'd require probably at least 10,000 backers *and* a late surge in $/person without any more miniature bonuses to come. But 2 million I can see, no question, though it's hardly guaranteed!)
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Jul 26, 2019 00:22
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Der Waffle Mous posted:??? I love it. I have a group that's been interested in the fluff of the Battletech setting for a while, but ATOW was an absolut nonstarter and they couldn't really get that interested in the tabletop rules as a first thing from standing start; I'd been trying to adapt some other system to the fluff, but it wasn't going well. This is exactly what I needed.
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Sep 21, 2019 14:40
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 23:20 |
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I like the idea of the clans and almost no actual implementations of the clans in books mostly because I don't think very highly of most of battletech's authors  Hour of the Wolf was... ehhhh. Didn't love it. Wish we could just make a new playground a hundred years in the future. But it's been confirmed that we're not ever doing a timeskip, so... yeah, if like me you didn't like Hour of the Wolf, congrats, because we're stuck in that era now.  At least we'll always have older eras to play in, so can't really get THAT unhappy.
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Jan 8, 2021 19:32
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