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The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless
A lot of that stuff you quote is pretty garbage.


the bitcoin of weed posted:

one of pakistan, india, and china is absolutely going to start a war over their shared water sources in the himalayas once those start to dry up. israel probably will if we ever get a sympathetic government here that tells them to cool it with the genocide

This is probably going to come true though.

:smith:

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The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Willie Tomg posted:

Probably. I kinda like some of that analysis, but I suspect the guy who closes his lecture with an extended hypothetical with women being turned into walking Axlotl tanks by the remains of society might be winging a few details.

One of the reasons I wanted to post this thread is b/c imo nuke proliferation has become a big ideological blind spot in the US at least, and I know there are a few people floating around the forums with more of a basis to talk about it (you're one of them iirc) and there are surprisingly few nonfiction sources to work from in terms of what a strategic exchange would actually look like.

I went to the DOE for work, got my clearance, read some scenarios, and I'll say this: Mad Max ain't too far off once you hit the 2,000 warhead scenarios of a US/Russia/China(kinda, sorta) kind of exchange, even if most of them are assumed to be spent trying to bust other nuke silos in a first strike. A dozen smuggled into the right places (think major ports and naval bases) would push the U.S. into a depression that would be far greater than the Great Depression, and probably kick off one hell of a worldwide depression since the U.S. dollar underpins everything. Oh, and I personally don't like our ability to detect smuggled nukes.

I see nuclear terrorism with some of the missing USSR warheads being a likelihood up there with the India, Pakistan, and China.

If Israel ever used nukes, they'd be a pariah state, and they know just how dependent they are on the rest of the world.

Either we all sing kumbaya, kill capitalism and get along, or we are in for a hell of a century.

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

remember when trump wanted to reverse course on how we were drawning down our nuclear arsenal and then put rick perry in charge

In the weeks before I left, they stopped the plutonium downblending operation to restart warhead pit production. :smith:

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

twoday posted:

I read somewhere that nuclear winter wouldn’t actually happen and that the whole theory was soviet propaganda meant to deter an American nuclear strike; thoughts?

Pretty much, You want airbursts for maximum spread of the "boom" to hit the ground, not kick up dirt.

Duscat posted:

nuclear war will be started by the united states

it doesn't really matter who strikes first, it's US escalation that's gonna make it happen

it's probably the US that strikes first though


once you're launching 2000 warheads and stopped, for some reason, in the middle of all out global thermonuclear war, why wouldn't you spend another 1000 to end technological society on the enemy's continent

still got thousands to go

I don't agree with the America-centric viewpoint you got there, but as to the rest:

Because after 2000 with the estimates we have, we all just throw up our hands and hope that nobody bothered to nuke South America so *somebody* has a civilization to work with to pick up the pieces, because the places that did get nuked with that much stuff aren't really going to be worth considering as a country. We currently have overkill for our overkill, out of the assumption that our opponents could probably knock a few down before they reach their target... by blowing up nukes in the flight path of our warheads. It's pretty metal/mental when you read up enough on it.

The Dipshit has issued a correction as of 17:43 on Aug 23, 2018

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Rookoo posted:

Really interesting thread, thanks for the posts. One thing I find myself wondering is how many people would actually bother to go on if society is rapidly chucked back to the middle ages. It's one thing if your life has always been tough and it's been a struggle to survive, but the modern western population is generally seen as pretty fat and soft nowadays, even compared to the people kicking around in the 40s during WW2.

For some reason I can't imagine many people would choose being worked to death in a field for 20 years until they die prematurely over quickly doing themselves in, unless they've got loved ones to protect.

People can get tough really loving quick, I wouldn't expect terribly too many people to just lay down and die because they can't play Pokemon Go or sleep comfortably in the summer.

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