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Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012
:siren: Primary Election Time Again! :siren:

Most of this info is largely shamelessly stolen from Vox (https://www.vox.com/2018/8/27/17773110/primary-elections-2018-arizona-florida-oklahoma). Florida stuff is less so.

Here are the NYT Primary trackers to keep up with the latest results: Florida, Arizona, Oklahoma

In Arizona:

Governor's seat is up for grabs and if the current one doesn't appoint someone to McCain's seat, their replacement will.

On the GOP side: Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey and former Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett.

On the Dem side: Former Arizona Department of Education official and professor David Garcia, state Sen. Steve Farley, and Kelly Fryer, the CEO of the YWCA Southern Arizona.

quote:

It’s looking likely that Ducey will win the Republican primary, despite a challenge. On the Democratic side, Garcia has maintained a steady lead in the polls, with Farley in second place. Garcia is running as a progressive; he supports Medicare-for-all and campaign finance reform. (He recently pledged to return almost $7,000 worth of campaign contributions he got from individuals identified as lobbyists after promising to take no lobbyist money.)

Ducey’s approval rating has fallen in recent weeks, and he is facing a tough dynamic with angry and fired-up teachers. Arizona was one of the states with teacher protests, with tens of thousands of teachers marching on the state capitol, demanding better pay. With Garcia’s education background and promises to expand access to early childhood education programs, this could be a boost for him.

One of Arizona's senate seats is up for grabs (not McCain's) to replace Flake

quote:

Who are the Republicans? Rep. Martha McSally (the first woman combat pilot in American history), Dr. Kelli Ward, and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Ward and Arpaio are both conservative hardliners.

Who is the Democrat? There’s just one Democrat: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. She’s a former Green Party activist who has fashioned herself as a more moderate Democrat who is in the House Blue Dog Coalition.

What’s the story? Arizona is a key pickup opportunity for Democrats after Republican Sen. Jeff Flake announced he wouldn’t seek reelection. Democratic candidate Sinema stands unopposed while there’s a competitive primary on the Republican side. While McSally is considered the frontrunner, there’s also a bitter competition playing out between Ward and Arpaio, two hardline, Trumpy Republicans (remember, Trump pardoned Arpaio earlier this year for criminal contempt of court, a misdemeanor). McSally, meanwhile, is facing questions about her loyalty to Trump — she didn’t endorse him in 2016 but now calls him a “friend.” Trump hasn’t endorsed in the race.

Going into November, this state is definitely in play for Democrats. A hypothetical polling matchup between McSally and Sinema in June and July shows Sinema ahead by 7 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average. But a lot could happen between now and November. Expect this to be a very expensive race.

Just based on this, don't expect the winner of this seat to be anything close to supporting Left-wing stuff. RIP.

quote:

Arizona First Congressional District: Democrat Tom O’Halleran tries to hang on in Arizona Trump country
Who are the Republicans? Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Wendy Rogers, state Sen. Steve Smith, and entrepreneur Tiffany Shedd.

Who is the Democrat? Incumbent Rep. Tom O’Halleran, elected in 2016. O’Halleran used to be a Republican when he was in the Arizona state legislature, but he left the party in 2014 and ran as a Democrat two years later.

What’s the story? The First Congressional District is prime southwestern Trump country. It voted for the president over Hillary Clinton in 2016 while also electing O’Halleran as a Democratic congressman. Given O’Halleran’s former position as a Republican and his moderate stance in Congress, he’s the kind of Democrat that can compete in the district.

On the Republican side, there’s a Trump loyalty contest going on. Smith is running on his experience as an elected official, but Rogers is garnering a fair amount of name recognition and is running on her loyalty to the president. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates this district R+2 but so far has placed it in the Likely Democratic category.

quote:

Arizona Second Congressional District: two Democrats are duking it out for Martha McSally’s open seat
Who are the Republicans? CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Marquez Peterson, veteran Brandon Martin, former Douglas City Councilor Danny Morales, and former Peace Corps member Casey Welch.

Who are the Democrats? Doctor and former Arizona state Rep. Matt Heinz and former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick are the frontrunners. Kirkpatrick has the backing of the DCCC, while Heinz was the Democratic nominee for the district in 2016.

What’s the story? This is an open seat now that Rep. Martha McSally is running for Senate. The Second Congressional District is very evenly divided between Democratic and Republican voters, making it a key pickup opportunity for Democrats. Cook rates the district R+1 but puts it in the Lean Democratic column.

There’s a bitter fight brewing on the Democratic side of late. Heinz and Kirkpatrick are pretty close in the polls and have been launching negative ads against each other. Heinz recently compared Kirkpatrick’s quest to return to Washington to meth addiction. On the Republican side, Peterson is ahead in the fundraising game — but the Republican primary hasn’t gotten quite as heated.

In Florida:

The governor's seat is a hot race as Governor Voldemort has reached his term limit and seeks to retain power by running for Senate.

On the GOP side: The two big front runners are Trump pick, Ron DeSantis, and state Agricultural Commissioner, Adam Putnam. The former has gone for a more Trumpian path with a cringeworthy commercial where his own child speaks Trump slogans. Putnam is the more Establishment choice and is trying to be more neutral on the Trump thing. DeSantis is the favorite to win.

On the Dem side: This race is a bit more competitive with three major front runners: Andrew Gillum is mayor of Tallahassee and endorsed by Bernie Sanders and probably the most progressive candidate that has a chance; Gwen Graham is a former US Rep, the daughter of a former Florida Dem governor, the likely frontrunner in the race, and endorced by NARAL, a bunch of unions and the Police Benevolent Association; Philip Levine is the former mayor of Miami Beach, has stated that he opposes Medicare for All in lieu of fixing the ACA and if for the Homestead Property Tax exemption.

What Vox says:

quote:

This could be a replay of 2016: Trump-lite DeSantis versus Graham, a center-left woman who isn’t the world’s best retail politician. Any race in Florida these days is going to be close, as in-state operatives constantly remind you. The early general election polling shows the Republicans and Democrats within just a few points of each other. Cook rates it a toss-up.

In the Senate, it's former Governor Rick Scott versus incumbent Bill Nelson. Scott is basically a big pile of hot garbage versus Nelson's smaller pile of steaming compost. Scott is fairly popular with the Conservatives while Nelson is literally the only choice on the ballot. The only alternative to Nelson on the Dem side is write-in candidate Tamika Lyles. In November, it'll pretty much be a lesser of two evils race, so expect that.

quote:

Florida Sixth Congressional District: Ron DeSantis’s empty seat

Who are the Republicans? DeSantis is vacating this seat to run for governor. It’s a competitive race to replace him: Michael Waltz is a combat veteran who’s raised a lot of money, John Ward is a Navy vet who is also fundraising well, and former state Rep. Fred Costello has the endorsement of Florida Attorney General and Trump ally Pat Bondi and the National Rifle Association. The one survey of the race showed Waltz pretty far ahead at 40 percent, with Ward at 21 percent and Costello at 16. But three-way races with several credible candidates can be hard to forecast.

Who are the Democrats? Nancy Soderberg, former ambassador to the United Nations, is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue list. Stephen Sevigny, a medical radiologist, and attorney John Upchurch are the other Democratic candidates. Based on the results we’ve seen so far, it would be surprising if Soderberg, the only woman and the only candidate with the national party’s support, didn’t win on Tuesday.

What’s the story? The Sixth is just on the edge of competitiveness, with no incumbent on the ballot. Cook rates the race as Likely Republican and characterizes the district as R+7. Trump won it by 17 points in 2016. It would take a sizable wave for Democrats to win here.

quote:

Florida’s Seventh Congressional District: a district Democrats need to hold

Who is the Democrat? Rep. Stephanie Murphy, first elected to Congress in 2016. She is one of the few incumbent Democrats expected to face even a mildly serious challenge in 2018. She does technically face a primary challenger: Chardo Richardson, who is running a lefty campaign.

Who are the Republicans? It is probably a two-person race: state Rep. Mike Miller, first elected in 2014, versus business leader Scott Sturgill. They’ve both raised six figures for their campaigns. Vennia Francois, a first-generation American whose family came to the United States from the Bahamas, is also on the ballot.

What’s the story? In what should be a Democratic wave year, Murphy is probably safe. The district profiles as evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, which explains why it could be competitive, but Clinton beat Trump by 7 points and Murphy has the incumbency advantage. Cooks says it’s a Likely Democratic win.

quote:

Florida’s 15th Congressional District: Dennis Ross is retiring
Who are the Republicans? Rep. Dennis Ross is stepping down. Current state Rep. Ross Spano and former state Rep. Neil Combee look like the favorites for the GOP nod to replace him. Spano is the fundraising leader and notably got endorsements from Sen. Marco Rubio and Bondi; Combee likes to tout that he had a position in Trump’s Agriculture Department.

Who are the Democrats? This also appears to be a two-person race: attorney Kristen Carlson versus Navy vet and business executive Andrew Learned. Carlson describes herself as more moderate and got the Emily’s List endorsement, while Learned has said that he would support Medicare-for-all and received the backing of the Indivisible grassroots group.

What’s the story? This is an open seat that leans Republican, according to Cook. The district is R+6, and Trump beat Clinton by 6 points here. But with a big enough wave and a couple of strong Democratic candidates, it is certainly on the battlefield.

quote:

Florida’s 16th Congressional District: the vulnerable Vern Buchanan
Who is the Republican? Rep. Vern Buchanan, first elected to Congress in 2005. He voted for Obamacare repeal and the tax bill last year.

Who are the Democrats? David Shapiro, a local attorney, is another name on the DCCC’s Red to Blue battleground list. His opponent is Jan Schneider, who was the Democratic nominee for this district in 2016 and lost to Buchanan by nearly 20 points. She’s running again.

What’s the story? Election forecasters like Cook have this race in the Lean Republican category. It’s an R+7 district that Trump won by 10 points in 2016. But Buchanan faced some heat for buying a yacht on the same day that Republicans passed their tax bill, and Trump is not especially popular here now. Combined with Shapiro’s strong fundraising, you can see why the 16th should be competitive.

quote:

Florida’s 18th Congressional District: Democrats target Brian Mast
Who is the Republican? Rep. Brian Mast, first elected in 2016, voted for Obamacare repeal and the tax bill. He does have a primary to get through against Second Amendment-loving, environmentally conscious Dave Cummings and physician Mark Freeman, who lost to Mast in the 2016 Republican primary.

Who are the Democrats? Another DCCC favorite is the presumed frontrunner: Lauren Baer, who worked in Barack Obama’s State Department. She has to beat attorney Pam Keith, who ran and lost in the Democratic primary for US Senate in 2016.

What’s the story? The R+5 18th leans Republican in 2018, Cook says. Trump won it by 9 points in 2016, but Obama did score a narrow win here in 2008. The district is a little more diverse (less than 75 percent white), and Mast has only been in Congress for one term.

quote:

Florida’s 25th Congressional District: Mario Diaz-Balart versus Mary Barzee Flores
Who is the Republican? Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart is a noted moderate in the Republican caucus: He voted for Obamacare repeal and the tax bill, but he breaks from his party often on immigration.

Who is the Democrat? There is no primary to speak of on Tuesday: Mary Barzee Flores, a former federal judge, is running unopposed.

What’s the story? This is an interesting collision of national headwinds with a particularly strong GOP incumbent. There is a simple way to understand the Florida 25th: Hillary Clinton nearly beat Donald Trump here, losing by just 2 points, but Diaz-Balart won by 25 points in his reelection bid. The question is whether the national environment becomes too toxic even for an entrenched moderate Republican to survive in this R+4 district.

quote:

Florida’s 26th Congressional District: Democrats want to oust Carlos Curbelo
Who is the Republican? Incumbent Rep. Carlos Curbelo, elected in 2014.

Who are the Democrats? DCCC-backed candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who works in nonprofits, and Ret. Navy Commander Demetries Grimes.

What’s the story? Curbelo has represented this D+6 rated district since 2015 and was reelected even as the district voted for Hillary Clinton by 16 points in 2016. He’s a moderate Republican who has made headlines trying (and failing) to spur action on immigration reform within the House GOP. Democrats badly want to flip this seat, and they’re planning to go after his record on immigration, tax cuts, and health care.

Mucarsel-Powell is an immigrant from Ecuador who has been hitting Curbelo hard on the issue of immigration. But she is also facing questions about her husband’s financial ties to wealthy Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. The Democrat has shrugged off the reports as old news and said it has nothing to do with her campaign.

The big issue with this is Curbelo is the child of Cuban immigrants in a district where Hispanics are more than 60% of the population (and White non-hispanics are almost 20% in light of about 85% total pop being White). Muscarsel-Powell might be able to bridge some of the racial gap by also being Hispanic, but it's unclear if she can bridge the incumbent gap as well. Curbelo is also relatively liberal in terms of environmental issues given that the district contains the Florida Everglades and the Keys, but that may be a matter of prudence over sheer belief.

quote:

Florida’s 27th Congressional District: a massive field of candidates line up for Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s open seat
Who are the Republicans? Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro, former Vice Mayor of Doral Bettina Rodriguez-Aguilera, veteran Elizabeth Adadi, songwriter and Latin Grammy award-winner Angie Chirino, veteran and entrepreneur Michael Ohevzion, educator Maria Peiro, journalist Maria Elvira Salazar, and documentary filmmaker Gina Sosa.

Who are the Democrats? Bill Clinton’s former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala, state Rep. David Richardson, former Miami Herald reporter Matt Haggman, Miami Beach Commissioner Rosen Gonzalez, and former University of Miami academic adviser Michael Hepburn.

What’s the story? Florida’s 27th District in Miami is rated D+5 by Cook, and it voted for Hillary Clinton by a whopping 20 points in 2016. That was enough to make incumbent Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen head for the exits. This is a very good pickup opportunity for Democrats, but first they have to choose a nominee from a five-person field. Shalala is looking like the Democratic frontrunner, but she’s fielding serious challenges from Richardson and Haggman.

Meanwhile, there’s an absolutely massive field of Republicans, none of which have amassed serious name recognition or funding. Some more established Republicans have dropped out or declined to run because the challenge seems so daunting. Cook puts this race in the Lean Democratic category.

Oklahoma has runoffs too

Oklahoma is having a runoff for their GOP seat in the Primary. Chances are, one of these guys will be governor given how Red Oklahoma is

quote:

Who are the Republicans? Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett and Tulsa business executive Kevin Stitt. Cornett has leaned into his government experience, while Stitt is running as more of an outsider.

What’s the story? Current Republican incumbent Gov. Mary Fallin is term-limited. Cornett and Stitt emerged out of a crowded, 10-person primary to replace her, but they will first compete in a Tuesday runoff. Fallin is pretty unpopular, given her botched oversight of the state budget, which resulted in drastic cuts to public school funding. Oklahoma is one of the states that saw teacher strikes protesting low pay and spending cuts.

Xelkelvos has issued a correction as of 18:24 on Aug 28, 2018

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Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010

Trash states

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

im registered independent so i cant vote in primaries. but should i vote for bill nelson? i probably have to lol. rick scott is low-key one of the most disgusting politicians in the country

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

red tide is getting worse and killing all the ocean creatures and while exacerbated by climate change, you can very directly link it to rick scott's deregulation of water management. florida is dying lol

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Calibanibal posted:

im registered independent so i cant vote in primaries. but should i vote for bill nelson? i probably have to lol. rick scott is low-key one of the most disgusting politicians in the country

What stops someone from registering with both parties, either at the same time or back-to-back or whatever?

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

Addamere posted:

What stops someone from registering with both parties, either at the same time or back-to-back or whatever?

you can only vote once, and if you register a second time it updates your original registration with the new info

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

Voter registration closed a month ago, before early voting. Cant change parties now

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Concerned Citizen posted:

you can only vote once, and if you register a second time it updates your original registration with the new info

seems like there would be a fun data analysis project here to see how many registered X's vote in the primary then vote Y in the general or w/e

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Calibanibal posted:

im registered independent so i cant vote in primaries. but should i vote for bill nelson? i probably have to lol. rick scott is low-key one of the most disgusting politicians in the country

C'mon dude. Nelson is garbage and is probably going to lose, he's basically Chuck Schumer without the political acumen. Plus he looks like the Cryptkeeper, the only candidate who could make Scott's Voldemort look good.

But holy poo poo, gently caress Rick Scott

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

Ramrod Hotshot posted:

C'mon dude. Nelson is garbage and is probably going to lose, he's basically Chuck Schumer without the political acumen. Plus he looks like the Cryptkeeper, the only candidate who could make Scott's Voldemort look good.

But holy poo poo, gently caress Rick Scott

thats the dilemma, yeah

A Big Fuckin Hornet
Nov 1, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo
gently caress, and the extent of schumers political acumen is "exists in NY"

I don't know much about Nelson but lmao he's gonna lose

the bitcoin of weed
Nov 1, 2014

looking forward to the aisle-crossing succ dem winning the florida gov primary and tanking turnout for every other race and the whole population of the state being sacrificed for oil money

The Nastier Nate
May 22, 2005

All aboard the corona bus!

HONK! HONK!


Yams Fan

Calibanibal posted:

im registered independent so i cant vote in primaries. but should i vote for bill nelson? i probably have to lol. rick scott is low-key one of the most disgusting politicians in the country

Yes you should vote for Bill Nelson, but then you should feel bad about it afterwards and also for having to live in a garbage state.

Also change your affiliation because being independent in a closed primary state is dumb af

the bitcoin of weed
Nov 1, 2014

bill nelson is one of the worst dem senators in the country and I badly want him to lose to basically anybody but rick scott. Florida loving sucks

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

The Nastier Nate posted:


Also change your affiliation because being independent in a closed primary state is dumb af

i know but i keep forgetting to change it

Destroy My Sweater
Jul 24, 2009

I voted yesterday. I voted for Andrew Gillum. Can confirm our dead hot gay state is dying.

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Destroy My Sweater posted:

I voted yesterday. I voted for Andrew Gillum. Can confirm our dead hot gay state is dying.

Lauderdale airport smells like piss, blessed by TRUMP

The Nastier Nate
May 22, 2005

All aboard the corona bus!

HONK! HONK!


Yams Fan

Calibanibal posted:

i know but i keep forgetting to change it

do it right now. I mean in PA it's literally download a form and mail it to the county.

You want to make sure you can vote in the democratic primary for county coroner next year or whatever dumb offices we pretend is important in off years.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Florida's a garbage state, but just lmao if you don't think the entire country is too. The only difference is Floridians are too lazy to put up a progressive figleaf to hide the reality of neoliberal brutality lol

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Ramrod Hotshot posted:

Florida's a garbage state, but just lmao if you don't think the entire country is too. The only difference is Floridians are too lazy to put up a progressive figleaf to hide the reality of neoliberal brutality lol

also the airport smells like piss

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

The Nastier Nate posted:

do it right now. I mean in PA it's literally download a form and mail it to the county.

You want to make sure you can vote in the democratic primary for county coroner next year or whatever dumb offices we pretend is important in off years.

no

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

any worthwhile house primaries, OP?

Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012
Florida's Democratic party is basically garbage and while Gillam is the best option for Gov, he's gonna probably come second to Graham who's major advantage is that she's a woman and more appealing to the center of the Dem party.

There's also nominal tossup districts up for grabs too, but at least one is gonna defy the odds and stay locked in because the candidate is a (Conservative) Cuban running in a district that's probably at least 50% Cuban. The others flippable ones are probably gonna ride whatever wave that's going on and not because of the candidate's merits.

The Amendments are where the real game is, but that won't be until November.


Ramrod Hotshot posted:

Florida's a garbage state, but just lmao if you don't think the entire country is too. The only difference is Floridians are too lazy to put up a progressive figleaf to hide the reality of neoliberal brutality lol

Florida is ostensibly the face of what Neoliberalism largely looks like. Appeals to progressiveism and conservation are largely done in service of (and not in spite of) profits to the state or local industries. Tourism profits drives ecological conservation, but it sits at odds with agricultural or industrial profits. Big Sugar is big deal because of this and it's why the Dem Gov's have made statements regarding donations by those companies.

Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012

get that OUT of my face posted:

any worthwhile house primaries, OP?

Vox has a few listed, but IMO, not really any notable names spring up. I'll update OP with them though.

Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012
I could spend some more time on the Florida ones like i did with the 26th, but :effort:

FL 26th is one of those special cases where the current sitting candidate is in the opposite party of where it heavily swings, and usually those are explained by either legacy or demographic reasons. Florida is a swing state that's slowly reddening thanks to the state government, and the local Dem party is pretty paralyzed due to it and the corporate leverage that exists in the state.

Pf. Hikikomoriarty
Feb 15, 2003

RO YNSHO


Slippery Tilde
fl 27 has a republican rep who is retiring and is an area that went strongly hilary. bunch of people running but the winner will probably be donna shalala who is a bad dem

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
have we considered electing good people? just throwing out ideas

Mariana Horchata
Jun 30, 2008

College Slice

Addamere posted:

Lauderdale airport smells like piss, blessed by TRUMP

MIA bishh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZkjeJKBI0M

platzapS
Aug 4, 2007

Orlando DSA made two endorsements:

Chardo Richardson (FL-07)
Robin Denise Harris (Orange County Commission District 6)

I'd also recommend:

Andrew Gillum (Governor)
Roy David Walker (Commissioner of Agriculture)

platzapS has issued a correction as of 08:44 on Aug 28, 2018

Peanut President
Nov 5, 2008

by Athanatos
Why in the goddamn gently caress are they doing primaries 2 months from the loving election?

Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012

Peanut President posted:

Why in the goddamn gently caress are they doing primaries 2 months from the loving election?

In saner countries, their campaign season is about this short. What's the issue?

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


i put 10 bucks on predictit for Matt Heinz because he was only at 15 cents for some reason, despite the last actual polling having him ahead. probably going to lose it but worth the risk imo

nah
Mar 16, 2009

voting for Gillum today

Florida is bad. a memorable moment from one of the Democratic gubernatorial "debates" was the moderator begging each candidate to pledge they wouldn't raise anyone's taxes

BrianBoitano
Nov 15, 2006

this is fine



Voted for Gillum today. Let's fuckin gooooooo

Gynocentric Regime
Jun 9, 2010

by Cyrano4747

BrianBoitano posted:

Voted for Gillum today. Let's fuckin gooooooo

I knocked on doors for him, but irony of ironies I couldn’t vote for him because Florida has closed primaries 😩

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
lol that florida are going to vote in the person who made them live with red water and dead sea life everywhere

Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010

Jose posted:

lol that florida are going to vote in the person who made them live with red water and dead sea life everywhere

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Jose posted:

lol that florida are going to vote in the person who made them live with red water and dead sea life everywhere

luv 2 smell the stench of dead animals and toxic algae on my sunday fishing trip, to own the libs

Mind_Taker
May 7, 2007



It would be so Florida™ if Bill Nelson losing to Rick Scott is what keeps the Senate in control of the Republicans.

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Xelkelvos
Dec 19, 2012
If Nelson and the Florida dems were smart, they'd try to hammer Scott on the current environmental situation.

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