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That Works posted:Good luck with that one. It's not the worst strategy since openly campaigning on impeachment could motivate the Republican base, and conviction in the Senate physically can't happen anyway without Republican crossover votes so it's best not to get people's hopes up.
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Sep 3, 2018 18:17
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Duzzy Funlop posted:Can someone give me a quick overview of what could possibly happen in the 2018 midterms? Like, both best-case and worst-case? The major elections effectively boil down to the US House, the US Senate, state governorships, state legislatures, and state ballot proposals. In the US House, all 435 seats are up for grabs. The big thing about this year is that the gerrymander put in place for many house districts after the 2010 census to keep them in Republican hands is starting to weaken, and furthermore many formerly reliable Republican suburban districts have drifted against Trump. On top of that the party in power historically loses a fair number of seats in the midterms (Because Americans are insane and love divided government for some reason), so it's very likely that the Democrats will past the 218 seat threshold to control the chamber. This is incredibly important, because it allows the Democrats to take control of committees that have subpoena and oversight power over the executive branch-meaning that they can start openly investigating the vast swaths of illegal activity and corruption going on inside Trump's White House and the upper levels of his cabinet agencies. In the US Senate, one third of the 100 seat chamber is up for grabs (As Senators have a six-year term that are staggered to ensure only one third of the chamber will be up for reelection at the same time). Here the Democrats have a real problem-having won big in 2006 and 2012, the Republicans only hold eight seats out of the 33 up for grabs for full terms. Of these, all are traditionally Republican states: Arizona, Texas, Utah, Tennessee, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, and Wyoming (Plus a bonus special election in Mississippi). To make matters worse, the Democrats have a number of seats they need to hold on to in red states, including Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, and West Virginia. But while it's an uphill battle for the Democrats to take the Senate, it's not impossible. Thanks to the miracle victory in Alabama, the Democrats only need to gain two seats to take control, and they've lucked out in states like Tennessee and Texas where popular candidates Phil Bresden and Beto O'Rourke are up against Noted Insane Person Marsha Blackburn and Serial Killer Ted Cruz, respectively. In addition, Senator Joe Manchin (hated by mcmagics everywhere) is somehow beloved in West Virgnina and is highly likely to keep his seat, and while other Democratic Senators like Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota) and Clair McCaskill (Missouri) are in trouble, the Democrats might be able to hold most of their vulnerable seats by the skin of their teeth. On the state level, a shitton of governorships and state legislative seats are up for grabs across the country, which are important since A)These matter more for the quality of life of ordinary people (See how Republican rule in Oklahoma has effectively ruined the state) and B) the Republicans are dangerously close to having control of enough state legislatures to achieve their fever dream of amending the US Constitution, and desperately need to be slapped back from that precipice. The best result that the Democrats can hope for is winning back the House and the Senate, which allow them to completely derail the administration's ability to pass legislation or appoint insane people to judgeships or federal agencies, which will effectively neuter Trump's White House until 2020, and furthermore will allow them to enact much more oversight of the administration. The most likely result is that the Democrats take the House but not the Senate, which will stymie the administration somewhat but will still allow them to appoint judges and other insane people, which is bad for the long-term health of the country. The worst result is that the Democrats fail to take the House or the Senate because we're actually in hell, nothing changes, death is certain
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Sep 3, 2018 20:18
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Mr. Nice! posted:Your average joe isn't motivated by "impeach impeach impeach" as much as they are someone that says "I want to fix the pothole in front of your house." It's notable that the current Democratic candidate for governor in Michigan is literally running on the campaign slogan 'Fix the drat roads'. Mr. Nice! posted:You missed a couple senate seats up for grabs this year, Ace. There are 35 with 9 republicans at risk. Even still, dems cannot get 60 votes in the chamber let alone 66 to impeach. Yeah, the double Mississippi and Minnesota election mixed me up. Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 20:25 on Sep 3, 2018 |
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Sep 3, 2018 20:22
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That Works posted:The cabinet is likely concerned right now about using their positions for individual profits. I'm sure some of them want to, but it needs to be a majority and they can't do it without Pence: quote:Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
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Sep 4, 2018 17:48
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I mean, we all know what the symptoms of food poisoning are. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEAXOCmgE74
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Sep 5, 2018 15:25
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There's nothing that truly prepares an individual for the immense job that is the Presidency, but it's abundantly clear throughout history that the best Presidents are typically those that have experience managing large bureaucracies or experience working in the legislature. In the 20th Century alone you have TR and FDR (Governor of New York), Eisenhower (Supreme Commander of Allied forces in World War II), and LBJ (Master of the Senate) as those who accomplished the most positive change, and even assholes like Nixon (Senator and two-term Vice President) and Reagan (Governor of California) were effective in part because of their experience in the bureaucracy. Furthermore, experience in government means more exposure to people who know government-part of the reason why Trump's administration is such a goddamn trainwreck is because it's filled with idiots and morons who don't know jack or poo poo about the agencies they're supposed to lead or advise. On the complete other hand, Lincoln was so successful was because he was able to fill his cabinet with people who, even as they were plotting against him, he could trust to do the jobs he needed them to do in a time of immense crisis. Likewise, FDR was successful in part because of the people he surrounded himself with, including crucial advisor Louis Howe. Having the right policies and ideas are important, but believing the right things (Or telling people you believe the right things) doesn't mean jack or poo poo if you can't implement them. Just look at Carter-policy and belief wise he was one of the better Presidents of the 20th century, but his inability to work with Congress and his failures on the international stage allowed Reagan to swoop in and completely blow any chance the Democrats had of enacting lasting positive change to the country in the post-Watergate era. Avenatti could easily be the same thing-someone who gets into office, fights with his own Congress ineffectively for a few years, and then gets swept out when a charismatic rear end in a top hat blames everyone's problems on minorities/women/immigrants again. Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Sep 5, 2018 |
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Sep 5, 2018 16:49
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When talking about police shootings, it's interesting to look at how Buffalo police reduced shootings, to the point that nobody was shot and killed by a Buffalo PD officer for four years. tl;dr it's a combination of community policing, working to increase and improve trust between citizens and police, and, most importantly, a true cultural commitment to reduce shootings and plant the thought in the minds of officers that they don't want to shoot anyone. e: 
Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 03:01 on Sep 10, 2018 |
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Sep 10, 2018 02:57
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Milo and POTUS posted:I have got to see this, btw IIRC someone posted a chart listing items that were most likely to indicate whether a person was white or black, and 'owning a flashlight' was somehow on the list. What followed was a several page discussion trying to figure out how flashlights could have ended up on the list, people got pointlessly heated and mad, basically another Tuesday for the Trump Thread.
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Sep 10, 2018 20:59
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Oxygenpoisoning posted:Lol that a “very liberal program” in his mind is universal health care, something that poles well on both sides of the isle. (as long as it’s not branded as Obamacare.) I wonder where he thinks owning the means to production falls? Carter was a one-term president because he had zero relationship with congress and got into dickwaving contests with his own party as the economy and the world were crumbling around him. He's not a bad person, but he was unquestionably a bad president.
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Sep 12, 2018 17:24
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Nick Soapdish posted:I have nothing to back this up but, I still feel the 17th Amendment was a mistake Think about your average state legislator Now think about them getting to choose your next Senator. Now you know why the 17th amendment exists.
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Sep 15, 2018 16:53
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Patti Davis (Ronald Reagan's daughter) just came out in support of Ford by revealing her own story. https://wapo.st/2xu7Vxe
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Sep 21, 2018 23:00
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How in the world is Ted so bad at this gently caress I could campaign better than this.
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Sep 22, 2018 06:15
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What the hell else is he supposed to say? "gently caress Joe Manchin and gently caress him specifically?"
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Sep 28, 2018 22:23
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Casimir Radon posted:Is it even within the realm of possibility to quietly position someone to primary Manchin in the near future? If Ojeda wins and holds his seat for a few years than maybe, but otherwise I don't even know who in West Virginia you could even find that could even come close to beating Manchin, let alone winning in a statewide race. Someone did try to primary him this year, and only got 30% of the vote.
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Sep 28, 2018 22:33
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facialimpediment posted:So either 1) Trump is a gigantic idiot and didn't realize what McGahn was doing or 2) Trump is lying and knew all along. and the great thing is that both of these are probably equally likely.
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Sep 30, 2018 06:37
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