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It's a long night. Plenty of time left for things to shake up again, right?
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Jan 16, 2024 04:13
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Merlot Brougham posted:It's a long night. Plenty of time left for things to shake up again, right? it's happening
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Jan 16, 2024 04:23
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joever
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Jan 16, 2024 04:30
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My Newsom shares are finally profitable again.
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Jan 16, 2024 04:34
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Merlot Brougham posted:My Newsom shares are finally profitable again. on a related topic, the Joe Biden dying/Kamala 47th prez shares are at their lowest price
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Jan 16, 2024 04:38
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Merlot Brougham posted:Anybody making bank on 2nd place tonight? Yeah made about fifteen bucks lol
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Jan 16, 2024 04:43
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Grey Fox posted:lol same The "Not Resigning" market also covers some of this. I haven't checked the numbers there.
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Jan 16, 2024 04:43
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At least Predictit went with "number of votes" in the rules this time instead of "number of delegates" or whatever ratfuckery happened to that market for the 2020 Dem caucuses.
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Jan 16, 2024 04:48
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i say swears online posted:joever Taking the Binkleymentum straight to New Hampshire, bitch.
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Jan 16, 2024 04:52
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Do I really have to upload my driver's license to use the site now even though I've had an account for years?
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Jan 16, 2024 06:04
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net work error posted:Do I really have to upload my driver's license to use the site now even though I've had an account for years? I wondered the same thing. I cashed everything out a couple years ago when things were on hold due to the regulatory actions. My account has been dormant since then but over the weekend I decided to jump back in. The short answer is "Yes". And then you have to take a selfie but in my case it was super easy and I was able to fund it immediately after. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee What's the deal here? Wasn't this already decided in favor of South Carolina and should be 99 cents? What am I missing?
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Jan 16, 2024 18:11
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I wondered the same thing. I cashed everything out a couple years ago when things were on hold due to the regulatory actions. My account has been dormant since then but over the weekend I decided to jump back in. The short answer is "Yes". And then you have to take a selfie but in my case it was super easy and I was able to fund it immediately after. New Hampshire is gonna hold it, but the DNC says they won't recognize it. However people think that if they write in enough Biden votes, the DNC may go ahead and recognize it. And they think that window is all the way up until the convention.... although I dunno, predictit might just go ahead and resolve it. I think South Carolina is a pretty good bet here, although I don't have any free cash to throw at it, and I kinda hate these rule-lawyer markets.
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Jan 16, 2024 18:32
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Baddog posted:New Hampshire is gonna hold it, but the DNC says they won't recognize it. However people think that if they write in enough Biden votes, the DNC may go ahead and recognize it. And they think that window is all the way up until the convention.... although I dunno, predictit might just go ahead and resolve it. That makes sense. The closest analog is the 2008 Michigan primary. At the time they were stripped of all their delegates because they cut in line ahead of NH and Hillary Clinton was the only major candidate. An option on the ballot was "uncommitted" and this was by default a vote for Obama. In the end the DNC ended up awarding them 50% of the delegates so a similar contract would have gone to Michigan. In this case the resolve to punish New Hampshire is more firm and goes all the way to Biden and there is resentment from pretty much everyone else that such a small white state has such an outsized influence. I don't think the DNC caves this time, but that is the bet.
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Jan 16, 2024 19:30
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The real reason the DNC is taking the first primary away from new hampshire is because they voted for Bernie
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Jan 16, 2024 19:37
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Well there you go. It's not like they can undo that mistake
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Jan 16, 2024 21:54
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I wondered the same thing. I cashed everything out a couple years ago when things were on hold due to the regulatory actions. My account has been dormant since then but over the weekend I decided to jump back in. The short answer is "Yes". And then you have to take a selfie but in my case it was super easy and I was able to fund it immediately after. My impression is that the ACTUAL thing you're betting on at this point is what Predictit will consider to count as a "Democratic Primary."
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Jan 16, 2024 22:27
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reignonyourparade posted:My impression is that the ACTUAL thing you're betting on at this point is what Predictit will consider to count as a "Democratic Primary." That's often the case. My reading is delegates awarded = Democratic Primary. No delegates = Not a Democratic Primary. But PredictIt is the wildcard
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Jan 16, 2024 23:22
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Shear Modulus posted:The real reason the DNC is taking the first primary away from new hampshire is because they voted for Bernie it's less about punishing NH and more about rewarding SC, a state that instantly made Biden the frontrunner even though his campaign on the ground there was effectively nonexistent. I saw exactly one Biden yard sign in the entire primary cycle. Also for being real good at suckering money out of nationwide donors for doomed candidates, see Jaime Harrington being elected DNC chair on the strength of blowing $110 million to lose a senate race by 12. But that money isn't wasted, it pays the salaries of the field staff and strategists and consultants and sticker printers and ad executives who are the whole of the party organization.
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Jan 16, 2024 23:58
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shame on an IGA posted:it's less about punishing NH and more about rewarding SC, a state that instantly made Biden the frontrunner even though his campaign on the ground there was effectively nonexistent. I saw exactly one Biden yard sign in the entire primary cycle. Clearly less wasted than whatever Amy McGrath managed to spend https://www.theonion.com/amy-mcgrath-blows-remaining-campaign-funds-on-lavish-co-1845574869 With NH, what's amazing is how they managed to keep it going as long as they did, especially as the Democratic party became more urban and less white. Their arrogance and sense of entitlement that they deserve to go first every single time rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. I have lived in states that border NH for about 85% of my life and every 4 years the presidential ads start up on all the local channels and reach a crescendo about now, NH votes and they all stop. Then its radio silence when its finally my turn. It is a reminder that an individual vote there is hundreds, maybe thousands of times more sought after than mine. This is a state with no sales tax which has the effect of sucking a lot of business from its neighbors and also underfunds their government; their uninsured spill over their neighbors who get stuck with the bill. They have speed traps where their cops favor ticketing out of state drivers and they sell all the fireworks that keep me up for the two weeks after the 4th of July. NH is a parasite. I say good riddance.
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Jan 17, 2024 04:33
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 https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1749171719175090254 i say swears online has issued a correction as of 01:30 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 21, 2024 23:21
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I'm not exactly a Biden stan but I have to say I find it funny how it's often stated his polling is doing bad while betting markets have him and Trump at nearly equal footing.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:38
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Gucci Loafers posted:I'm not exactly a Biden stan but I have to say I find it funny how it's often stated his polling is doing bad while betting markets have him and Trump at nearly equal footing. His polling has been real bad, but polls 10 months ahead of an election are very close to meaningless
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Jan 22, 2024 00:40
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Vox Nihili posted:His polling has been real bad, but polls 10 months ahead of an election are very close to meaningless Exactly! It's almost a year away. I think it's kind of dumb we're making this forecasts so far out when things will change. Remember, Biden is nearly a wartime president and there seem to be positive changes in the economy.
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Jan 22, 2024 00:52
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Looking at the states he has to win makes me not feel so great though. Yah he got them all last time, but ehhhh..... things feel different. Maybe just because *I'm* disappointed as gently caress, but I guess we will see.
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Jan 22, 2024 01:39
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Michigan may be completely out of biden's reach this cycle
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Jan 22, 2024 01:41
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i say swears online posted:Michigan may be completely out of biden's reach this cycle Yah, there are probably 5 tossups including michigan and he can only lose 2. (And those two can't be Pennsylvania and Georgia)
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Jan 22, 2024 02:48
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Let me know if I am on the same train of thought but the toss ups or competitive states are...
My gut feeling, I have a tough time seeing Trump winning in Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania. And I think the odds are better for Biden overall. We have an election where the former candidate allegedly attempted a coup to stay in power and fighting criminal charges during an election. The senior leadership of his own party hates his guts. On the other hand, Biden is a war time president under increasing positive economic conditions and well liked in his own party. Gucci Loafers has issued a correction as of 03:11 on Jan 22, 2024 |
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Jan 22, 2024 03:02
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you've used the phrase 'war-time president' a couple times which is confusing to me
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Jan 22, 2024 03:12
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Trump fighting criminal charges and being hated by party leadership is seen as a plus by most of his core voters  . Georgia seems like it's lost unless there's some good momentum that comes up, unless my read on it is just wrong. But they're actively burning all the activists that put them over the top last time.
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Jan 22, 2024 03:29
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i say swears online posted:you've used the phrase 'war-time president' a couple times which is confusing to me I should have been more specific, Biden is president with two large active conflicts under his watch. Granted, the US isn't directly involved but they are a participant. That's going to give a boost to his popularity.
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Jan 22, 2024 03:31
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Gucci Loafers posted:I should have been more specific, Biden is president with two large active conflicts under his watch. Granted, the US isn't directly involved but they are a participant. That's going to give a boost to his popularity. He is getting involved in a third too. The voting public do like militarism though
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Jan 22, 2024 03:32
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bedpan posted:He is getting involved in a third too. The voting public do like militarism though As long as your team is winning.
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Jan 22, 2024 03:34
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Gucci Loafers posted:Biden is president with two large conflicts under his watch. Granted, the US isn't directly involved but they are a participant. That's going to give a boost to his popularity. when will the population rally around the flag and support our president? russia invaded ukraine 23 months ago and israel invaded gaza nearly four months ago and all the actions biden has taken in either conflict have hurt his poll numbers
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Jan 22, 2024 03:34
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Gucci Loafers posted:Let me know if I am on the same train of thought but the toss ups or competitive states are... the total victory margin across 3 swing states for biden in 2020 was a razor thin 40k votes during an economic crisis and pandemic. polling shows almost everyone is currently upset at skyrocketing living costs. you have partisan goggles on if you have a tough time seeing trump winning these states given these facts.
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Jan 22, 2024 03:36
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i say swears online posted:when will the population rally around the flag and support our president? russia invaded ukraine 23 months ago and israel invaded gaza nearly four months ago and all the actions biden has taken in either conflict have hurt his poll numbers A lot of people still support president? Not sure what you are trying to say. Armed conflicts can last years or even longer. The thing is people generally like war times presidents. That's like an immediate +2 EV. Sure he could still lose... maybe things won't go his way but I haven't seen anything credible that shows Biden's recent actions with any of the recent conflicts are significantly hurting his polling.
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Jan 22, 2024 03:44
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Gucci Loafers posted:I haven't seen anything credible that shows Biden's recent actions with any of the recent conflicts are significantly hurting his polling. https://www.aei.org/politics-and-public-opinion/will-support-for-israel-cost-biden-michigan/ An October survey found just 17.4 percent of Arab Americans would vote for Joe Biden in a general election matchup with Donald Trump—a more than 40-point decline from 2020. The president’s approval rating among Arab Americans plummeted to a measly 29 percent.
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Jan 22, 2024 03:48
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i say swears online posted:https://www.aei.org/politics-and-public-opinion/will-support-for-israel-cost-biden-michigan/ And we think this is going to cost him the general election? If so, how exactly? Is the theory that Michigan Arab Americans a strong enough voting bloc in Michigan that they'll not vote and that'll swing the State to Trump?
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Jan 22, 2024 03:53
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Gucci Loafers posted:And we think this is going to cost him the general election? If so, how exactly? Is the theory that Michigan Arab Americans a strong enough voting bloc in Michigan that they'll not vote and that'll swing the State to Trump? yes
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Jan 22, 2024 03:53
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May you expand on that theory? How certain of you are of this and why?
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Jan 22, 2024 03:56
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As it stands right now, I think he loses Michigan and Georgia.... And then he needs absolutely everything else. Is Arizona really going Biden again? Going to be very drat close.
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Jan 22, 2024 03:58
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