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so who's betting on  ?market seems to think Murkowski is a no while the rest of the GOP falls in line, and Manchin breaks ranks Murkowski sounded like Collins yesterday when asked about Kav overtunring Roe though, which makes me think she's a yes it is difficult to imagine only one Republican breaking rank on this, seems like it would have to be 2 or nothing to me
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Oct 5, 2018 16:53
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PredictIt with some clever marketing in their email blasts today
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Nov 6, 2018 18:58
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basically broke even on what’s left of my post-2016 funds
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Nov 7, 2018 08:31
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Next speaker market seems ripe for some near term waves, with news like this popping up https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1062787335245520902
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Nov 14, 2018 21:21
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literally this big posted:What? I knew PI could be lovely sometimes but I've never heard of anything like that before.  that market is still open?? Incredible
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Nov 16, 2018 22:04
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literally this big posted:What, exactly, does this mean?
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Nov 19, 2018 23:39
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UT-4 feels like a genuine coin flip at this point
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Nov 20, 2018 00:25
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I wonder if there will be some weaseling around "sworn testimony" on account of his written answers not being "sworn" or whatever
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Nov 20, 2018 23:39
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bawfuls posted:I wonder if there will be some weaseling around "sworn testimony" on account of his written answers not being "sworn" or whatever
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Nov 21, 2018 00:12
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Yeah but PredictIt still hasn't figured out if there was a furlough back in what, February? I wouldn't put it past them to get confused about "sworn" here. That being said I bought some Yes shares so 
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Nov 21, 2018 02:30
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Will Bernie Run? is still under 70c and it's basically free money imo
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Jan 10, 2019 19:44
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candidate announcements are happening now and in the next few months, seems like the right time to be playing them
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Jan 11, 2019 06:44
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"Will Bernie Run?" just paid out so I'm armed and ready for primary season. What are people playing near-term before the rollercoaster of the main primary market really gets going?
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Feb 21, 2019 19:29
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the move this early is to play the swings of the clowncar field every time someone announces, they get a bump much like the GOP primary last time around, several different candidates will surge and wane at various times you can make a killing playing those swings if you're on it
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Mar 5, 2019 08:07
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yeah that sounds like a dumb complaint from people who’re new to the site
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Mar 15, 2019 02:41
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Vox Nihili posted:Biden No available for 9c. Apparently he's pushing back any launch until "after Easter" and is considering a "one-term pledge." i'm in that market but i can't bring myself to dive in deeper even at 9c i'm just not sure he can resist the sirens call of all those polls showing him in the lead
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Mar 21, 2019 19:29
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yeah that's fair, I guess I have such a low opinion of him and his self-awareness that I'm jaded, but patterning off his 2016 behavior makes sense
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Mar 21, 2019 19:52
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Feeling good about those second debate markets right now. Got some Bernie biggest gainer at 9c, and Biden biggest loser was an easy call when the lineups came out.
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Aug 2, 2019 06:28
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Rasmussen strikes again!
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Aug 2, 2019 23:41
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only trouble is that market won’t close for like another year
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Sep 27, 2019 19:04
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Also a pretty good day to pick up some Bernie YES nomination shares. It was down as low as 5c on Wednesday, but still under 10c is a steal considering his strong fundraising. He will surely peak higher than that even if he doesn't win.
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Oct 5, 2019 19:35
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Bloomberg’s entry today has helped my negative risk situation in the primary market. I’m now in the money for all outcomes aside from Biden/Pete/Bloomberg. Thanks Mike!
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Nov 7, 2019 23:45
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here's a link to the market in question btw, up to 81 now https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6075/Will-Mike-Bloomberg-file-to-run-for-president-by-1-31
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Nov 9, 2019 03:32
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Seems pretty safe at this point to bet against Yang making the January debate. He’s only got 1 of the needed 4 qualifying polls (since November 14th) and he’s only got 8 days left. His desperate plea for the DNC to commission its own polls was met with a “lol nope” last week. No still trading in the low to mid 80’s https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6244/Will-Andrew-Yang-qualify-for-the-January-Democratic-debate bawfuls has issued a correction as of 01:51 on Jan 3, 2020 |
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Jan 3, 2020 01:38
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I got burned by the Steyer poll too but betting against Yang making it has canceled that out
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Jan 10, 2020 04:57
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I’m in line for big gains from the Bern man but my numbers are puny because I got my clock cleaned by hubris in 2016 and vowed never to throw additional funds into this degenerate website. My big mistake was last minute moving my hedge (no on Trump >370 EVs) to Trump.NO. Would have preserved about half my bankroll if I’d left that alone, instead I was left with like 15% of it.
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Jan 27, 2020 22:11
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back up to 40c or so now, poo poo is all over the place
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Feb 4, 2020 23:35
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a compounding factor is the Predictit market is based on delegates, not votes, and a tie goes to ratface because of alphabet
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Feb 5, 2020 01:58
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market just flipped again 
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Feb 6, 2020 06:38
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That Iowa market is going to sit open for weeks now. It'll be funny when the "will Iowa winner also win NH?" market can't close after NH because the Iowa market is still open
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Feb 7, 2020 03:25
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looks like the Iowa market may be on the move again soon
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Feb 8, 2020 23:57
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Yeah my NH got filled at 82 earlier this morning. Not sure where to put it to catch a post-NH bump now. Kinda get the feeling I should just roll state win profits in to the nomination itself at this point. Betting margin of victory feels like a fool's errand.
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Feb 11, 2020 06:18
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Comrayn posted:I’m getting out of the NV caucus market. Too many signs they are setting it up to be as hosed up as Iowa so I’m taking my 23 cent gains and running. bawfuls has issued a correction as of 00:49 on Feb 12, 2020 |
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Feb 12, 2020 00:46
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WampaLord posted:
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Feb 12, 2020 05:36
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ABANDON THE STEYER STRATEGY
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feel like Vox has been the king of this thread and predecessors for four years now
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Feb 12, 2020 08:13
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I think the January fundraising FEC report comes out this Saturday (the 15th) so that may give us more clarity on dropouts. If Warren’s January fundraising is bad enough her dropout market probably bumps a few points on that news alone
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Feb 12, 2020 21:38
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that tweet got me too, it’s fake news but still fun
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Feb 12, 2020 22:59
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Tunicate posted:he could just be buying them up himself to help build a narrative, how much would it cost to do that?
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Feb 13, 2020 06:36
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I also wonder how much he could pump it before it became so obvious as to make the site no longer newsworthy
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Feb 13, 2020 06:45
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| # ¿ May 19, 2024 08:03 |
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wait till Biden eats poo poo in Nevada and that should impact the SC market
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Feb 15, 2020 01:32
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