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DariusLikewise posted:There an outside chance that the Redskins might be good, but I don't know if I trust a 33-year old Adrian Peterson and a 34-year old Alex Smith to go the full 16 games They're an 8-8/7-9 team that can beat a good team having a bad day.
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Oct 2, 2018 16:07
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Kalli posted:yeah, I gotta be honest, I have no idea who the next 3-5 best teams are after the Rams and Chiefs so far. I think the Rams are a cut above anyone else so far, including the Chiefs. Jaguars, Patriots, and Saints are probably the rest of the Top 5. First 4 weeks of the season usually looks weird. Looking at the chart below, you probably are going to just be guessing who is playoff bound until about week 8-9, and even then the NFL always seems to schedule a large slate of division games towards the end of the season to keep things interesting. Also we have a bunch of ties to factor in this year, so these numbers are probably off now. 
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Oct 2, 2018 16:37
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I'm a longtime apologist and defender of game managers but I can tell you truthfully that Case Keenum's thorough mediocrity offends me.
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Oct 2, 2018 16:37
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CyberPingu posted:Saints - Defense seems to be an issue and Brees is looking a bit lethargic, The defense is, well, I’d rather not talk about it...but Brees is on pace for a better year than last year.
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Oct 2, 2018 16:39
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YOLOsubmarine posted:The defense is, well, I’d rather not talk about it...but Brees is on pace for a better year than last year. Yeah im sure he will be fine, he usually starts off the season a bit slow too then kicks into gear later on.
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Oct 2, 2018 16:40
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Looking at that chart makes me really want to see a team go 7-0 then lose out to ruin their 100% chance of making the playoffs.
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Oct 2, 2018 17:53
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Substandard posted:Looking at that chart makes me really want to see a team go 7-0 then lose out to ruin their 100% chance of making the playoffs. The 1992 chargers who started 0-4 and made the playoffs are truly an inspiration for teams around the league.
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Oct 2, 2018 18:03
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That's a good chart. I immediately looked for the 11-5 pats, 7-9 Hawks and the 2012 bears who started 7-1 and missed It's definitely a bit confusing that 54% of 1-0 teams make it and 25% of 0-1 but whatever mastershakeman fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Oct 2, 2018 |
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Oct 2, 2018 18:04
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Kull the Conqueror posted:I'm a longtime apologist and defender of game managers but I can tell you truthfully that Case Keenum's thorough mediocrity offends me. If he had hit that one touchdown pass to Sanders we wouldn't be talking like this. But yeah he was mostly bad last night with just a few good passes.
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Oct 2, 2018 18:11
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mastershakeman posted:That's a good chart. I immediately looked for the 11-5 pats, 7-9 Hawks and the 2012 bears who started 7-1 and missed I think ties and previous playoff formats/fewer teams in the league throw the numbers off a bit. Like as of now, it would be impossible for it to be 54% and 25%.
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Oct 2, 2018 18:24
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mastershakeman posted:It's definitely a bit confusing that 54% of 1-0 teams make it and 25% of 0-1 but whatever Only 12 teams make the playoffs, and there's gonna be (almost always) 16 1-0 teams, 54% is roughly 8, and 16 0-1 teams, and a quarter of that is 4.
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Oct 2, 2018 18:29
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Slowpoke! posted:I think ties and previous playoff formats/fewer teams in the league throw the numbers off a bit. Like as of now, it would be impossible for it to be 54% and 25%. Not really? It's "likelihood to reach the playoffs based on historical trends". 25% of 0-1 teams reach the playoffs, historically. This has no direct effect on the fact that 54% of 1-0 teams made it to the playoffs, historically.
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Oct 2, 2018 18:31
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cardinals still have a 1% chance
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Oct 2, 2018 18:46
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mastershakeman posted:That's a good chart. I immediately looked for the 11-5 pats, 7-9 Hawks and the 2012 bears who started 7-1 and missed Math, my only weakness. How...did...you...know?!
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Oct 3, 2018 03:11
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hifi posted:cardinals still have a 1% chance we got across midfield so many times last week! if these trends continue..... heyyyyyyyyy
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Oct 3, 2018 04:50
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Qwijib0 posted:if these trends continue..... heyyyyyyyyy avatar / post combo 
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Oct 3, 2018 07:54
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Ben Nevis posted:It's like 2014 when they got blown out by the Chiefs and everyone was like, "Whelp, Tom is old and dead, it's all over." The only difference is that now we know about the kid kissing. as a patriots fan it's deeply upsetting to me that tom brady is such a hosed up weirdo.
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Oct 3, 2018 13:00
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Kalli posted:Only 12 teams make the playoffs, and there's gonna be (almost always) 16 1-0 teams, 54% is roughly 8, and 16 0-1 teams, and a quarter of that is 4. Oh yeah. I'm senile and old , thanks
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Oct 3, 2018 13:00
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Slowpoke! posted:I think the Rams are a cut above anyone else so far, including the Chiefs. That's a cool chart, but why is each row short one block?
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Oct 3, 2018 13:50
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Because it’s playoff chances at that record, there are no chances once the season is complete
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Oct 3, 2018 15:34
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Since Tom Brady normalized the behaviour, incest (to include incest pornography) has skyrocketed in popularity. Read my new thesis at football absurdity dot com.
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Oct 3, 2018 15:39
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Also because Im assuming its not possible to be a 12-4 team and miss the playoffs but im not doing the math, just laying out the conjecture and hoping somebody else ponies up a million bucks for the proof
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Oct 3, 2018 15:41
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ELO Musk posted:Because it’s playoff chances at that record, there are no chances once the season is complete There are incidence rates, which would still be interesting.
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Oct 3, 2018 15:53
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Barudak posted:Also because Im assuming its not possible to be a 12-4 team and miss the playoffs but im not doing the math, just laying out the conjecture and hoping somebody else ponies up a million bucks for the proof It's possible, it just requires too many implausible things to be realistically possible. It'd like, require virtually every team in a conference to nearly sweep the other for example, here's an example using this year's schedule that results in 4 12-4 teams in the AFC all missing the playoffs: https://playoffpredictors.com/Football/NFL?L=EwRmrEoBluvGcw6su540MzVyEoRVYkIiU0JRr90lirCb8DCSDkTpFfGOafbtGa1unIkhIVyXVtTzC4QA 1. Chiefs 13-3 2. Bills 13-3 3. Titans 13-3 4. Browns 13-3 5. Patriots 13-3 6. Dolphins 13-3 ---------------- 7. Broncos 12-4 8. Chargers 12-4 9. Bengals 12-4 10. Jaguars 12-4
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Oct 3, 2018 16:10
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Kalli posted:It's possible, it just requires too many implausible things to be realistically possible. Most unrealistic thing about this is the Bills as a #2 seed.
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Oct 3, 2018 16:51
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ELO Musk posted:Because it’s playoff chances at that record, there are no chances once the season is complete Ah I get it, makes sense. rjmccall posted:There are incidence rates, which would still be interesting. Yes, this is what I want to know. It would be really interesting, knowing that if you're 8-7 going into the final game of the season you have a 34% chance of making the playoffs vs 6% chance if you went in 7-8, what percentage of 8-8 teams actually get in.
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Oct 3, 2018 21:03
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Slowpoke! posted:I think the Rams are a cut above anyone else so far, including the Chiefs. ...someone explain to me the 0 wins but 39% that make playoffs....is that just a tie estimation? Or is it 0 losses and I just don't know how to read a graph?
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Oct 4, 2018 00:30
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Gatts posted:...someone explain to me the 0 wins but 39% that make playoffs....is that just a tie estimation? Or is it 0 losses and I just don't know how to read a graph? 0-0 has 39% chance of making the playoffs.
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Oct 4, 2018 00:32
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Gatts posted:...someone explain to me the 0 wins but 39% that make playoffs....is that just a tie estimation? Or is it 0 losses and I just don't know how to read a graph? every team starts off 0-0. 39% of 32 teams gets you 12 playoff teams. so every team (ideally) has a 39% chance of making the playoffs before the season starts
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Oct 4, 2018 00:32
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If youre having issues the chart %s, the final result it needs to sum up to 12, not 32.
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Oct 4, 2018 00:38
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