2020 Democratic Presidential Primary: Welcome Home

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Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Welcome a wildly premature look at the contest to see who gets to face off against Donald Trump in 2020, an election that's a mere 25 months, 30,000 presidential tweets, and eleventy thousand news cycles away! Hopefully this will serve as a decent hub for information on candidates and polling as well as discussion on those topics.

:siren:

Party Plane Jones posted:

If anybody shits up this thread on either side I'm going to end run around the normal sixers and give you a week (as of the post on the first page). You have been warned.

A few quick requests for this thread:

Start poo poo,~~get hit~~ make me sad/Wither the Eternal Slapfight: There were many lessons from the elections of 2016. Chief among them: For many posters, there is no greater pleasure than owning the [shitlibs/berniebros], seeing them driven before you, and hearing the lamentations of their delegates. I say unto you-take it outside. There will be positives and negatives to discuss! Some candidates are very bad. Others are quite good. Sometimes, people will disagree with your obviously correct assessment of which candidates are which. Can we take it upon ourselves to do a bit better this cycle in handling these moments? If primarychat gets quarantined to CSPAM again, I won't be able to join in (hi Rask! ) and I'll be very sad.
At the very least, post about politics and not posters? Quorum's State & Local thread has managed to avoid shittiness quite well, even during/after contentious primaries. Let's aim for that. If your politics must be confrontational and any post that isn't spoiling for a fight is a post wasted, please consider other posting venues.
Contribute! Is a candidate not covered/profiled yet? You can fix that! Did I, or someone else, do a terribly lovely job of covering a candidate? You can fix that! The bottom of this post is a link repository for our candidates. I'll add any* posts profiling a candidate to it. *"Here's why this candidate is just the worst/completely perfect" posts do not count as profiles. We're not aiming for false balance, but an inability to identify redeeming qualities or liabilities makes for an inability to profile. Particularly posts that are focused positive or negative may still get linked for posterity but will be marked accordingly.
Be generous. Odds are that Dear Leader's spine and/or budget will shuffle off this mortal coil before the convention. Nobody here works for Soros, David Brock, Yevgeny Prigozhin, or any of the other myriad drivers of tinfoil purchases. Hasbara, on the other hand....

Assume the best of your fellow posters because honestly, how pathetic would you have to be to concerntroll, gimmick, or aggressively stan to win votes on this dying site?

THE LANDSCAPE
Donald Trump is President because Democrats failed to ~~nominate the right candidate~~ ~~connect with the middle class~~ ~~focus on the working class~~ ~~dismiss Identity Politics~~ ~~embrace Identity Politics~~ ~~moderate on abortion to win pro-life voters~~ ~~enact gun control~~ ~~denounce gun control~~ ~~destroy wall street~~ ~~eschew~~ ~~enforce decorum~~ organize themselves around the platform, candidate and messaging I prefer. The Trump administration is not popular. November 2018 saw a blue [tsunami/wave/shower/drought], which is only going to make the 2020 election more pivotal and interesting.

2016's primary very rapidly came down to personalities, but it'll be tough to draw such stark contrasts or unified opposition in a crowded field. Issues, platforms, and rhetoric will matter much more this cycle-though it's worth noting that it turns out everyone is an idiot and chooses their candidates for the dumbest of reasons.

Big Questions

Will they run? Polling at this stage is very heavily name recognition, and Bernie and Biden lead by miles with Warren hanging around as well. It's tough to see a path to victory for Joe, but reason to believe he'd start strong and that'll suck a lot of the oxygen out of the room for other candidates. If Bernie doesn't run, where his base goes will have an outsized impact on the race. Warren's behaving like she's going to run, but will she pull the trigger?
Senatorial unity? In 2016, the women of the Senate refused to run against (or endorse against) Hillary. Will they move as a bloc again? Will any of the men join them?
How progressive was Bernie's 43%? Hillary was deeply loathed by many within the Democratic Party. As O'Malley and others faded away, Bernie consolidated that opposition. 43% would put him on a path towards easy victory if he can maintain it, but how many NotWithHer voters were there? How many of them will find a new candidate?
When's the cull? 2016 was over after Super Tuesday, South Carolina serving as the harbringer of Bernie's defeat. But a candidate performing well in Iowa and New Hampshire can survive in a more crowded field if the SEC primaries are split. When the field narrows, and what faction is last to consolidate, will be critical
Who is the base? 2018's primaries were a mixed bag, but they didn't do much to back the narrative of a surging, nationwide antiestablishment movement. Will 2020 represent a changing of the guard?
Who is "authentic"? "Genuine"? Who is "phony", "insincere", "bought", or "calculating"? This candidate pool has precious little in the way of accomplishments, so a lot will come down to rhetoric, policy, and platform. How credibility gets assigned, and to who, is a fascinating lens to view primaries, punditry, and supporters through. Keep an eye out when you hear those labels, and interrogate your own use of them as well.

INFORMATIVE POSTS
Legislation sponsored by major candidates, including links (h/t Badger of Basara)

ROLL CALL

Bernie Sanders: Headliners
Joe Biden:Headliners
Cory Booker: Headliners
Kamala Harris: Headliners
Michael Avenatti
Tammy Duckworth
Eric Garcetti
Amy Klobuchar
Tom Perez
Kirsten Gillibrand: Pinterest Mom!/Headliners
Sherrod Brown
Eric Holder
Keith Ellison
John Hickenlooper
Andrew Cuomo
Jeff Merkley
Steve Bullock
Michael Bloomberg
Deval Patrick
Tulsi Gabbard
Elizabeth Warren:Headliners
Pete Buttigieg
Julian Castro
Martin O'Malley
Tom Steyer
John Delaney
Tim Kaine
Zuck

Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Nov 6, 2018

# ? Oct 10, 2018 06:02

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# ? May 7, 2024 18:55

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

^{^{(NOTE: This is will become more robust and detailed over time)}}

:siren:

HEADLINERS :siren:

Name: Bernie Sanders
Joementum Meter: 3.5 Weigels (He's jogging!)
Age in 2020: 79
Major Electoral History: Mayor of Burlington (81-88), Rep from VT (91-07), Senator from VT (07-Present)
Medicare for All status?: Sponsor, for like, ever.
Good Dem!: Some would suggest he's the yardstick by which the goodness of Dems are measured. Antiwar, tough on wallstreet, solid rhetoric on inequality, wall street, capitalism, the environment, and a wealth of social issues
Yeah, but: Of his 3 sponsored bills that became law, 2 were post office namings
Bad Dem!: Touted his toughness on crime and 'YEA' vote for the Clinton crime bill in race for his senate seat. Voted for legislation shielding gun manufacturers and sellers from liability by default in nearly all cases. "aren't most of the people who sell the drugs African American?", an unfortunate habit of contrasting racial justice issues and those facing "ordinary Americans"
In His Defense: Contemporaneous statements have him voting for the Clinton crime bill reluctantly and as a compromise- has not run as 'tough on crime' since the 2006. Hunting culture of VT and small-business gun store constituents were his cause for the gun vote

To begin with, the only real question on if he's running or not is the age thing. Even if he chooses not to run, his endorsement would heavily impact the race. There are three main questions for Bernie's run: 1. How much support does he retain when running against a field full of people who are not Hillary? 2. Can he win, or at least compete, in states with a diverse population? This ended him early in 2016, and if he's not improved his infrastructure, network, and ability to connect, it'll end his 2020 aspirations too. 3. Who is going to tell Jeff Weaver to stay home? The frontrunner to take the title of Worst Campaign Flak if Mark Penn vacates it this cycle.

Name: Cory Booker
Joementum Meter: 4 Weigels (HE'S RUNNING!)
Age in 2020: 51
Major Electoral History: Mayor-Newark, NJ (2006-2013), Senator-NJ (2013-Present)
Medicare for All status?: Cosponsor
Good Dem!: MFA, Prison/Justice/Police Reform, Fight for 15, major sponsored legislation includes marijuana legalization, 10/20/30 strategy on federal anti-poverty spending, Confederate monument removal, banking/financial consumer protections, voting rights, labor protections (most notably: employee dividend and anticollusion), is rejecting Corporate PAC money
Yeah, but: There's little cost or meaning to sponsoring/cosponsoring/supporting bills while in the Senate minority. Rejection of PAC money is necessary but not sufficient.
Bad Dem!: Crossed the aisle to oppose drug reimportation bill, big charter school booster, punched left at Obama over Bain Capital in 2012, extensive ties to finance from time in Newark, less-than-doveish on FP.
In His Defense: Voted for nearly identical reimportation bill on same day that included explicit callouts for safety (initial bill was voted for by the Cruz/Lee/Paul trio) and cosponored new legislation with Bernie. Abysmally-performing Newark Public Schools during his tenure were controlled by Chris Christie and the patronage machine of his corrupt predecessor-marking one of history's few recorded scenarios where an arguable case could be made for charters

Media friendly, charismatic, and skilled at grabbing attention, Booker will eat up a lot of the focus once the race begins in earnest. Few can match his credibility as it comes to antipoverty advocacy, but is also frequently branded phony and inauthentic by detractors to his left and his right. Progressive on social and poverty issues, mainstream Dem on most economic fronts. Vocal portion of the party believes he's bought and paid for, irredeemably corrupt. May be hurt the most by the early primary schedule. Over his career has been attacked from the left as insufficiently black, suspiciously friendly with Jewish people, and possibly gay. All three of these, along with the charges of phoniness, will be making reappearances throughout the primaries.

Name:Elizabeth Warren
Joementum Meter: 2,047/512 Weigels (Tests confirm she's running!)
Age in 2020: 71
Major Electoral History: Senator from Massachusetts (2013-Present)
Medicare for All status?: Cosponsor
Good Dem!: Healthcare is a human right. Driving force behind CFPB (and pulled as candidate for its first director due to GOP apoplepy) and overseer of TARP. Gun control. Advocate for labor/worker protections and representation on boards. Trump watchdoggery. Persisting with entering Sessions' lovely past into the senatorial record. #~~abolish~~ReplaceICE.
Yeah, but: There's little cost or meaning to sponsoring/cosponsoring/supporting bills while in the Senate minority. Arguably abandoned CFPB to chase greater personal political glory, Open to healthcare incrementalism.
Bad Dem!: History of charter, voucher, and school-choice advocacy. Had a private meeting with Jamie Dimon. Voted for HR2810 (expanded military funding, including increases beyond what was requested for MENA). "Youthful" Republicanism (and their efforts to constrain government activism in markets) lasted into her 40s.
In Her Defense: Has softened on support of charters, though hasn't come out against them. "Had meetings wtih someone bad" is a moronic negative. Had plenty of Dem company on the military bill (all but Merkley, Gillibrand, Wyden, Leahy, and Bernie), which was less overtly hawkish and more "not dovish". Shift to Democratic voting predated political involvement(mid 90s), though her more ferverent opposition to the GOP is still more recent

Warren is frequently cast as a unity candidate, marrying a track record of economic populism with a feminist and identity streak beloved by even the most stereotypical caricature of #resistance. Should Bernie choose not to run, she'd likely be a great fit in that role. Should they both run, though, there's substantial risk of the wounds over her lack of 2016 endorsement opening back up. The Cut, a year ago, identified how the right wing is using a familiar playbook and how it's already getting put to use with some similar effectiveness. If she and Bernie are both running, I have little doubt that we'll see her hammered from the left and the right on her republican history, personal wealth, and meetings with bankers-in part because, as the link notes, we've already seen it.

The question of authenticity will be a major one throughout the primary, and I'd challenge everyone to keep an eye on who gets perceived as real and who gets perceived as phony. Who is doing things for the right reasons and who is calculating, shrewed, and powerhungry. A recent Harvard study shows why this will be especially challenging for Warren: Male politicians seen as power-seeking are viewed as competent, tougher, and stronger. Women politicians seen as power-seeking are viewed as uncaring, unsupportive, and evoke feelings of contempt/disgust/outrage. Gender and political orientation had minimal, if any, impact.

Name: Joe Biden
Joementum Meter: Two Weigels (he supports the concept of cardio)
Age in 2020: 77
Major Electoral History: Senator from Delaware (paleolithic - 2009), Vice President (2009-2017)
Medicare for All status?: Nope
Good Dem!: Pro Choice, VAWA, free community college, was allegedly one of the bigger advocates for LGBT in the Obama White House
Yeah, but: The list is better suited to answer if he is a Dem. The answer is "Yeah, I guess?"
Bad Dem!: Y'know the superpredator crime bill? Guess who wrote it. Espouses "the dignity of work" to oppose UBI and other safety net expansions. Steamrolled Warren's advice in his senatorial days to weaken bankruptcy/enrich the credit and financial institutions who call Delaware home. Among the most hawkish potential candidates. Anita Hill.
In His Defense: He's been out of the Senate for years so maybe his actions from the 90s and mid 00s don't apply?

Diamond Joe Biden. The "populist" centrist. Longest track record and most experience out of anyone, with the name recognition to match. If the moderate/centrist/third way/blue dog wing retains power and is actually what drove Hillary's win in 2016? Look out, Joe's got a shot. If the party left him behind while he was still in the White House? Please Clap. I'll confess, I can't see Joe winning a Democratic Primary in 2020, but his theoretical path to victory exposes why he could be a uniquely dangerous spoiler if he sticks around. The Obama administration remains well thought of amongst primary voters, and that's especially true in the southern states where black voters make up a more impactful chunk of the electorate. His entire persona, meanwhile, is geared towards rust belt and blue collar workers. That is to say, Joe's path is to rebuild the Black & Blue coalition of legend. Again, I can't see this happening. But if he can get partway there- deny convincing victories in the midwest, New England, and the rust belt while also siphoning votes in the SEC primaries- he could have a substantial impact on the shape and character of the race.

Pinterest Mom posted:

Name: Kirsten Gillibrand

Joementum Meter: She didn't stab the Clintons in the back in order to have a long career in the Senate.

Age in 2020: 53

Major Electoral History: Senator from NY (2009-present), Rep from NY (2007-2009)

Medicare for All status?: Co-sponsor. Wrote parts of Bernie's bill. Supported Medicare buy-in in her first run in 2006.

Good Dem!: First Senator to endorse a jobs guarantee. First Senator to call to abolish ICE. Postal banking. Financial transactions tax. Refuses corporate PAC money Banning "men", the entire gender. Lowest 538 Trump score in the Senate. If there's a leftist cause c�l�bre, she's probably signed on to it.

Yeah, but: Her record in the House was considerably more conservative than her position in the Senate, and there's the question of whether she really means it or is just sensing where the political winds are blowing.

Bad Dem!: As a House member, supported cracking down on unauthorized immigration and had an "A" rating from the NRA. Distressingly pro-Israel. Hillary prot�g�e. As a corporate lawyer, represented Philip Morris.

In Her Defense: She legitimately did grow up in and represent a district that was conservative on those issues, and tacked left the exact second she was appointed to the Senate, and she did have some very progressive positions on health care even as a House member from a red district. Is a Senator from New York. Burned the Clinton bridges.

Gillibrand's been cozying up to the capital-L Left for a while, and really making it clear that she wants to be considered for their votes. It's easy to view this as cynical, since she's running for President and might view her path as "the candidate who is acceptable to both the left and the hashtag resistance", but hey, Senators pandering to the Left is better than Senators not pandering to the Left. She's made a lot of waves over the past couple of years by taking visible, gutsy stands: she led the bloc of women Senators who forced Franken out, she called to abolish ICE when no mainstream Dem (or Senators-caucusing-with-the-Democrats) was, picked a visible fight with the Clintons, and has been the most consistent anti-Trump vote in the Senate. Those stands haven't come for free - she's pissed off a lot of folks from Clintonworld and the male Democratic establishment. She's got the stink of Hillary to shake off, and it's not clear that she has, despite her efforts: she views Hillary as a mentor, was appointed to take her Senate seat, and there's always this suspicion that the positions she takes are calculated, not from the heart. She's been making sure to support candidates around the country during the midterms, and despite her polling in low-single digits for the moment, the last couple of years have shown she's got solid political instincts, has a great sense of where the Democratic Party is, and isn't afraid to take risks.

Name:Kamala Harris
Joementum Meter: 4 Weigels (She's running!)
Age in 2020: 57
Major Electoral History: CA AG (2011-2017) CA-SEN (2017-present)
Medicare for All status?: Cosponsor
Good Dem!: Legalize and expunge it (with Booker), Backed Heller, endorsed as a senator by Brady. MFA, sanctuary cities, worked at lower levels on sentencing reform and recidivism reduction, tax credits for renters, quasi mincome proposal, thought to have performed well during Kavanaugh hearings
Yeah, but: Mincome was meanstested with questionable payfors, there are no stakes to sponsoring and cosponsoring bills in the minority, good legal aspects overwhelmed by very bad legal aspects
Bad Dem!: Tenure as AG and prosecutor were very bad. Joined with Abbott in TX to repeatedly go after Backpage with zero legal basis for the sole purpose of perpwalks and headlines. Prosecutors beneath her were notorious-even by ACAB standards-for fabricated confessions, bogus drugtests, and an insane jailhouse snitch scheme. Lawyers representing her office actually argued that complying with the court's order to accelerate release timelines would deprive the system of an important labor pool. Argued distinctions of necessity on hormones vs surgery regarding a trans prisoner. Fiscal proposals work more within current systems than proposing bold changes. Failed to prosecute Mnuchin's bank as AG.
In Her Defense: Many of the untenable arguments she personally made were on behalf of her client: the state of CA. Enforcing change in a government organization where the offending staff is cops and you're a black woman seems challenging. The slavery argument was apparently unbriefed and done while scrambling, without her knowledge. She immediately and strongly condemned it.

Harris has been tabbed as a rising star for years, though many still think AG is a more likely next step than President. Her coming out proposal for the wonks was poorly received-as a general rule (and especially this early) you can get away without explaining how you'll pay for your proposals... but if you're going to try, it looks real bad when you gently caress it up. Activists in southern states have already started whispering concerns about her and Booker both running, which has a chance to break in some very ugly race/gender ways. Won a lot of fans with her approach to the Kavanaugh hearings, but I also suspect hurt herself with a chunk of male voters (see: Franken/Gillibrand). ACAB is a very real liability, and one she'll have to address. Path likely requires strong finishes in IA and NV and then a win in CA and most of the SEC, but getting the latter with Booker still in the race on Super Tuesday will be tough.

Misogynoir is bound to impact her candidacy in some profound ways, and as with the other candidates, I'd recommend keeping an eye out for ways their identity skews coverage and perception.

Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Nov 6, 2018

# ? Oct 10, 2018 06:06

Sulphagnist: Oct 10, 2006; WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

I appreciate using the Weigel scale of are they running or not, but I would've imagined it would max out at 1 Weigel and so Booker would be 1 Weigel and Bernie would be 0.75 Weigels.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 07:22

Fulchrum: Apr 16, 2013; by R. Guyovich

Why is that guy who bragged about killing a man not on the shortlist?

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

# ? Oct 10, 2018 07:36

Majorian: Jul 1, 2009; Inverted Offensive Battle: Acupuncture Attacks Convert To 3D Penetration Tactics Taking Advantage of Deep Battle Opportunities

Paracaidas, you and I butt heads a lot, but this is a good start to this thread. Nice job. I hope it gets the quality of discussion it deserves. :golfclap:

# ? Oct 10, 2018 09:19

Pluskut Tukker: May 20, 2012

Great OP! Maybe John Delaney, the only Dem who has actually announced his candidacy and is campaigning already should also be in it though. Also, as far as I can tell, Bernie Sanders is not actually a Dem at the moment, though I suppose that is an obstacle that can be overcome if he runs.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 09:41

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD: Jul 7, 2012

I don't see how you can have a serious discussion about the primaries without talking about the truly inevitable candidate; I'm talking Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

# ? Oct 10, 2018 13:13

Oxxidation: Jul 22, 2007

corey booker is the kind of ambulance chasing penny-ante motherfucker who hears his own theme music playing in his head every time he talks, i'm already sick of his disconcertingly bald head and the melty puppydog face thereon

# ? Oct 10, 2018 13:23

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Paracaidas posted:

Yeah, but: Of his 3 sponsored bills that became law, 2 were post office namings

Interesting that other politicians being poo poo is implied to be Sanders' fault

# ? Oct 10, 2018 13:25

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD: Jul 7, 2012

I love Elizabeth Warren, she's exactly the kind of angry righteous liberal mom I grew up with and she gives me the warm fuzzies. Her shtick plays really well in Massachusetts, it's just that it plays horribly everywhere else. Setting aside the questions about her legacy, I hope someone in her orbit has the balls to admit this to her.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 13:27

Sulphagnist: Oct 10, 2006; WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

From the 2016 cycle my impression was that Warren is not a big fan of campaigning and retail politics, at least nationally. On the one hand, that might not be that relevant in 2020 anyway, on the other hand, if it still is relevant, it's probably going to show if she's not into campaigning. Running for President, at least the traditional and not the Donald Trump way, is a shitload of work.

That's also why I'm skeptical of people in their 70s running. Running for President and being President, again if you are not doing it DJT style, is rough as gently caress.

Also, Bloomberg has just registered as a Democrat in a very public way, so he's definitely approaching 4 Weigels.

Sulphagnist fucked around with this message at 13:34 on Oct 10, 2018

# ? Oct 10, 2018 13:32

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD: Jul 7, 2012

If I were to put money down on it today, I would say Harris wins the primary and loses to Trump.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 14:09

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Fulchrum posted:

Why is that guy who bragged about killing a man not on the shortlist?

*checks around nervously for Fishmech*
For the same reason that Lincoln Chafee wasn't included and O'Malley will probably fade entirely before I get around to writing a profile.

Pluskut Tukker posted:

Great OP! Maybe John Delaney, the only Dem who has actually announced his candidacy and is campaigning already should also be in it though. Also, as far as I can tell, Bernie Sanders is not actually a Dem at the moment, though I suppose that is an obstacle that can be overcome if he runs.

Added Delaney to the list, thank you! As for Bernie, him caucusing with the Dems was sufficient for 2016 which will make it sufficient for 2020, though I confess that I personally couldn't care less. With that said, it's tough for me not to read Bloomberg's re-registration as an indication about who his first target (and possible only reason for running) will be. An interesting, underdiscussed tidbit from 2016 is that NeverBernie sentiment within primary voters stayed fairly consistent and similar to the quantity of NeverHillary sentiment(pg15). I expect that's changed since Trump's election, but it's something to keep an eye on.

VitalSigns posted:

Interesting that other politicians being poo poo is implied to be Sanders' fault

I wouldn't say it's assigning fault? There is value in sponsoring legislation (though, as noted for Booker, less value when you're in the minority party), but congresscritters are at a disadvantage to Governors (and metropolitan mayors or even AGs) when it comes to pointing to actual accomplishments. People will come down differently on value of rhetoric vs achievement, and how important the latter is. It seems a relevant note for Sanders and will be making a reappearance in the profiles of his fellow members of the Class of '06.

But, in all sincerity, feel free to take a crack at it yourself if there's a dissatisfaction with what I did/did not highlight in that or any other profiles.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 15:00

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!: May 31, 2006

Fulchrum posted:

Why is that guy who bragged about killing a man not on the shortlist?

off killing that man again

# ? Oct 10, 2018 15:25

Pinterest Mom: Jun 9, 2009

Merkley has been spending time and hired staff in IA/NH, he should probably be on the list. Hickenlooper too~

# ? Oct 10, 2018 15:34

Chemtrailologist: Jul 8, 2007

Montana Governor Steve Bullock should be added to the list. He's been to Iowa a lot lately. I guess Starbuck's CEO Howard Schultz has made some noise about running, he's going to appeal to young people about how centerism is cool.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 15:46

Big Hubris: Mar 8, 2011

Paracaidas, don't you know?

She's running.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 15:59

Fritz Coldcockin: Nov 7, 2005

I see the Democratic field this time out being more crowded than the GOP field in 2016, and that's saying something. It will winnow much faster, though, as the billionaire idiots and the vanity candidates bow out.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 16:36

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD: Jul 7, 2012

Tony Gunk posted:

It will winnow much faster, though, as the billionaire idiots and the vanity candidates bow out.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 16:50

WAR CRIME GIGOLO: Oct 3, 2012; The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

The dems really should study DJ KEEMSTAR so they can trashtalk trump better

# ? Oct 10, 2018 17:10

RaySmuckles: Oct 14, 2009; Grimey Drawer

I'm going to be supporting Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in his electoral bid for President of the United States of America

I think a crowded primary helps Bernie. It will be challenging for centrist Dems to distinguish themselves from each other while Bernie is already a known brand. The "cool" Dems will just be more like Bernie, so why not support the real deal?

The age thing is mildly disconcerting. Not because I think it has any legitimacy, but because other people seem to.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 17:16

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD: Jul 7, 2012

The age thing is an issue because it reflects a fundamental problem: nothing the Democratic Party has done in the last twenty years excites people under 50 or so, and they stay home on Election Day, don't run for office, etc.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 17:44

Crowsbeak: Oct 9, 2012; by Azathoth; Lipstick Apathy

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

The age thing is an issue because it reflects a fundamental problem: nothing the Democratic Party has done in the last twenty years excites people under 50 or so, and they stay home on Election Day, don't run for office, etc.

Well, unless the offer something awesome. You know like universal healthcare and job guarantees.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 18:04

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD: Jul 7, 2012

Right, well, they haven't. And as soon as Obama took office, it became clear that selling him as a progressive was just a PR thing, which only reinforced younger people's preexisting image of the "left" party.

Fulchrum posted:

Why is that guy who bragged about killing a man not on the shortlist?

Actually I know a guy who was all in on Webb and nearly quit his job to campaign for him. He must have been the only one.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 18:38

Ytlaya: Nov 13, 2005

My biggest concerns are the thing mentioned in the OP about Bernie attracting most anti-Hillary votes in 2016 and the potential of someone like Warren splitting the left-leaning Democratic vote. Biden also has considerable weight as a "default" sort of choice for low-info voters, though hopefully he'll gently caress things up for himself by revealing his true colors.

In terms of actual quality of the (currently known or hypothesized) candidates, Bernie is unequivocally the best, followed by Warren, followed by everyone else.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 19:40

Demon Of The Fall: May 1, 2004; Nap Ghost

It'll be Warren as the eventual candidate. How is that even a question?

# ? Oct 10, 2018 19:47

Feldegast42: Oct 29, 2011; COMMENCE THE RITE OF SHITPOSTING

I think Biden is going to go down as the Jeb! of the cycle since everybody can use Anita Hill against him, and Bernie can point out that he is the reason student loan debt isn't dischargable, etc.

Bernie's main weakness is that he is old (I also don't care as much but some people do, and it puts great importance on his VP pick) and that Warren and :basta:

could possibly steal his thunder. Another issue is that we don't know how hard his base of support is, since there were definitely people that aren't crazy about him but voted in the primary for him over Hillary.

Another note -- is Warren actually running? I haven't seen much from her on that front. She didn't run in 2016 and pretty much the entire left base was begging her to do it.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 19:50

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Feldegast42 posted:

Bernie's main weakness is that he is old (I also don't care as much but some people do, and it puts great importance on his VP pick) and that Warren and could possibly steal his thunder. Another issue is that we don't know how hard his base of support is, since there were definitely people that aren't crazy about him but voted in the primary for him over Hillary.

Him being just about 80 upon entering office is a big problem for me because that is old as poo poo, as much as I like the guy.

Also he's had some problems with minority voters because he is, in fact an old white guy, and that was an issue for him in 2016. I think it's better that he align behind someone who is younger, ideally a woman.

quote:

Another note -- is Warren actually running? I haven't seen much from her on that front. She didn't run in 2016 and pretty much the entire left base was begging her to do it.

She's been a bit coy so probably yes she is.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 19:54

redneck nazgul: Apr 25, 2013

basta!

# ? Oct 10, 2018 19:56

Pinterest Mom: Jun 9, 2009

Feldegast42 posted:

Another note -- is Warren actually running? I haven't seen much from her on that front. She didn't run in 2016 and pretty much the entire left base was begging her to do it.

SEPTEMBER 29, 2018
HOLYOKE � Senator Elizabeth Warren on Saturday made her most definitive indication to date that she is mulling a run for the White House in 2020, telling a town hall crowd that she will take a �After Nov. 6 I will take a hard look at running for president� after the Nov. 6 midterm elections.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2...rgoJ/story.html

# ? Oct 10, 2018 19:58

Sulphagnist: Oct 10, 2006; WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

Avenatti's going to have a Herman Cainesque grifter run that may get out of control in the polls for a few weeks (just like Cain's did) because the #resistance seems ripe for the plucking.

It's a pity that primary was such a wet fart once people actually began to vote.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 20:42

Fulchrum: Apr 16, 2013; by R. Guyovich

Will leftists accept reality if they lose this time, or will they continue to scream that the party letting black people vote is a thousand times worse than committing treason?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Oct 10, 2018 21:28

Paracaidas: Sep 24, 2016; Consistently Tedious!

Fulchrum posted:

Will leftists accept reality if they lose this time, or will they continue to scream that the party letting black people vote is a thousand times worse than committing treason?

Almost made it a page.

Would you mind getting the gently caress out, if this is going to be your contribution?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Oct 10, 2018 21:40

Slutitution: Jun 26, 2018; by Nyc_Tattoo

toxxing for Bernie hail satan

# ? Oct 10, 2018 21:47

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Sulphagnist posted:

Avenatti's going to have a Herman Cainesque grifter run that may get out of control in the polls for a few weeks (just like Cain's did) because the #resistance seems ripe for the plucking.

It's a pity that primary was such a wet fart once people actually began to vote.

Considering what would happen four years later when a succ dem went up against Anyone But An Establishment Tool we should probably be grateful all those wacky joke candidates lost to an establishment tool in the 2012 Republican primary

# ? Oct 10, 2018 21:48

Party Plane Jones: Jul 1, 2007; by Reene; Fun Shoe

Slutitution posted:

toxxing for Bernie hail satan

Witnessed.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 21:48

Party Plane Jones: Jul 1, 2007; by Reene; Fun Shoe

side note if anybody shits up this thread on either side I'm going to end run around the normal sixers and give you a week as of this post. ya'll have been warned

# ? Oct 10, 2018 21:49

Teddybear: May 16, 2009; Look! A teddybear doll!
It's soooo cute!

I've had an inkling that Tammy Duckworth has an outside shot at making moves in the primary for a while now. Her life story and experiences are wildly compelling, she seems steady and a reasonable Dem in the Senate, and she's extremely likable in general.

# ? Oct 10, 2018 21:51

VitalSigns: Sep 3, 2011

Paracaidas posted:

I wouldn't say it's assigning fault? There is value in sponsoring legislation (though, as noted for Booker, less value when you're in the minority party), but congresscritters are at a disadvantage to Governors (and metropolitan mayors or even AGs) when it comes to pointing to actual accomplishments. People will come down differently on value of rhetoric vs achievement, and how important the latter is. It seems a relevant note for Sanders and will be making a reappearance in the profiles of his fellow members of the Class of '06.

But, in all sincerity, feel free to take a crack at it yourself if there's a dissatisfaction with what I did/did not highlight in that or any other profiles.

It doesn't seem relevant to me (unlike some other criticisms of Bernie like the flip on the crime bill).

If senators don't vote for his bills because they're poo poo, then just say "sponsor of really poo poo bills like shitbill1 and shitbill2" because that's a criticism of him
If senators don't vote for his bills because they're poo poo, well that's a criticism of poo poo senators and not relevant to his candidacy.

Now I know the counterargument is "but it shows he can't make deals" and I'm going to say no it doesn't no more than it showed Obama couldn't make deals when Republicans were relentlessly ideologically opposed to his agenda

# ? Oct 10, 2018 21:53

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# ? May 7, 2024 18:55

Goatse James Bond: Mar 28, 2010; If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

RaySmuckles posted:

I'm going to be supporting Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in his electoral bid for President of the United States of America

I think a crowded primary helps Bernie. It will be challenging for centrist Dems to distinguish themselves from each other while Bernie is already a known brand. The "cool" Dems will just be more like Bernie, so why not support the real deal?

The age thing is mildly disconcerting. Not because I think it has any legitimacy, but because other people seem to.

I think there are decidedly nontrivial odds that Bernie suffers meaningful impaired physical or mental capacity by 2028. As such, I'd like it best if he pre-declared a (good) running mate before the primaries.

Even if he doesn't he's quite possibly my top pick out of the currently prominent/likely candidates. But a lot can happen in a year and a half.

mostly i live in terror of Sanders/Biden, Sanders/Booker, or particularly Sanders/Gabbard, because the last one is probably my fault

Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Oct 10, 2018

# ? Oct 10, 2018 22:00

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