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QuoProQuid posted:I'm curious how many ballots it takes for the Democrats to agree on a ticket, given that there are at least 15 "serious" contenders in the OP and probably half a dozen others (Tim Ryan! Kate Brown! Tammy Duckworth! Howard Schultz for some reason!) who could theoretically jump in. The sheer number of candidates seems to be bad news for Sanders, who seems to do worse in polls when more candidates are included, and better for big-party tent poles like Biden, who consistently polls in the 25-30% range regardless of how many opponents he has. Votes for anyone who doesn't beat 15% basically don't count under dem primary rules. As long as he doesn't drop below that magic number, it's better to get 19 and then a dozen people trailing around 4 points then to get 20 followed by a few getting 16.
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Oct 15, 2018 13:16
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It probably won't directly lose her many votes, but it'll much more easily hurt her ability to get young doorknockers out on the street, and that would lose her votes.
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Oct 16, 2018 21:13
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QuoProQuid posted:It won’t because y’all are seriously overestimating how much staying power this story has when the midterms are three weeks away. It doesn't need much staying power when the demographic in question is specifically politically aware young people, many of whom are going to be quite tied in to racial issues. Maybe it won't matter for them, but I think they're the group most likely to remember it and they're a rather important group just to have a functional campaign.
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Oct 16, 2018 23:17
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Demon Of The Fall posted:This is a lot of speculation. When she has a hard time finding volunteers because people for some reason care about this, maybe I’ll be concerned. People in general will not care, but the people who do still care will be disproportionately represented in those she needs to convince to volunteer. If it makes it hardER to find volunteers without actually reaching the realms of hard, that still falls into the Mattering.
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Oct 17, 2018 01:56
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It's not even about people lying (which they probably aren't, if they're wrong it was whatever ancestor they got the story from that was lying.) Even its completely true, you don't think a white person who's family hasn't had any connection to it in living memory talking about their ancestry to make themselves seem more interesting is for example, going to contribute to the perception that any problems on the reservation are their own fault? Why, Bob over in payroll is is a 16th Cherokee and HE'S doing fine!
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Oct 17, 2018 03:53
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Literally no one but you is even talking about getting BENEFITS from it, except perhaps the very minor benefit of feeling slightly more interesting than they otherwise might.
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Oct 17, 2018 04:28
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"Wow, people on this politically aware, left leaning forum sure don't like cops, I dont see how they could possibly be getting acquitted of all these murders like people are saying"
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Oct 17, 2018 04:34
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Nah. People make fun of the white people who do it.
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Oct 17, 2018 04:44
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Right now I'm working front counter in rural chud Washington, I hear from a lot of people who hate that the local tribes actually get most of the fishing rights they're supposed to be treaty, "they don't actually count" has just never made it into the racism people assume I will appreciate as small talk.Oh Snapple! posted:Gonna go out on a limb and guess that when Bill Baker talks about his heritage, it's not through just casually dropping his blood quantum and leaving it at that.
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Oct 17, 2018 05:19
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Lightning Knight posted:I posted an article but she’s anti intervention because “it’s bad for the troops,” not because she has an empathy for foreigners. So what. GreyjoyBastard posted:It is my sincere hope that we have other good choices (and I still think "Bernie Or Bust" shows a lack of imagination and/or willingness to rationally evaluate other options, although as we get closer to the primaries that'll go down). NOT "Bernie or Bust"ing shows a lack of willingness to rationally evaluate the circumstances. Bernie managed to acquire national prominence effectively because there was no one else to talk about. In this crowded field there's no way anyone else even half as good will be permitted the air time to have anything approaching a shot reignonyourparade fucked around with this message at 05:14 on Oct 20, 2018 |
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Oct 20, 2018 05:03
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I might not have been entirely clear with where I was going with that / may not have fully enunciated it early in the thread, so: It doesn't matter who else might potentially run because the historical accident that allowed Bernie to be treated as a serious candidate is not going to be repeated. There was no one else for the talking heads to really talk about in 2016, this time around there's a million people to talk about and no need to ever give any air time to the hypothetical Trotsky McSocialist (D-CA).
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Oct 20, 2018 23:06
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"I won't listen to Henry Kissinger" was already the the best foreign policy statement in national politics and he's absolutely improved from there.
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Oct 21, 2018 03:29
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It's not enough to beat trump if we lose to trump 2.0 in 2024 because we got another Obama who does none of the good things they talked about.
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Oct 21, 2018 03:31
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Everybody already knows bernie is a socialist and also everyone loves bernie.
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Oct 22, 2018 02:44
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Yeah in a lot if ways LBJ was such a shithead that there's no other way to interpret his GOOD actions than that he was a true believer.
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Oct 24, 2018 03:46
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Well, it matters if the vote splits enough to drag you down under 15% and then you literally get ZERO delegates, and also it matters if you're someone the establishment hates and it goes to the second round and suddenly the superdelegates get to swing their dick around.
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Oct 31, 2018 11:10
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The thing with shoring up Bernie's weakness with a VP pick is that in many cases bernie's 'weaknesses' are things his own base actively likes. I'd expect a young VP but anything beyond that risks dampening vital enthusiasm.
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Nov 11, 2018 07:30
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VitalSigns posted:"You can't collect income tax from robots or software" I mean its technically true, you have to collect capital gains tax from robots and software.
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Nov 13, 2018 06:29
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Adar posted:meanwhile, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/15/jb-pritzker-illinois-governors-race-2018-strategy-spending-2020-222574 Nobody elected primarily through the benefit of citizens united is going to destroy citizens United because all their donors are going to be quite happy with the ability to buy elections thanks to citizens united.
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Nov 15, 2018 17:53
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That means, that at the end of the day, the average Republican is going to be more tolerant of voting for a candidate they dislike or aren't enthused about than the average Democrat. That ONLY follows if Republicans candidates are equally likely to disliked by their voters.
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Nov 18, 2018 06:19
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Yeah the propoganda machine exists to turn people who want tax cuts, people who want racism, and people who want to gently caress dems into people want tax cuts, racism, and to gently caress dem.
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Nov 18, 2018 09:04
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Skex posted:Yes the old crusty guy who couldn't win the primary in 2016 is totally the best choice to fire up the younger more diverse group of people who make up the Democratic base. Bernie sanders is basically at his least popular (but still pretty popular) with old people and white people so, legitimately yes!
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Nov 20, 2018 01:19
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Hellblazer187 posted:At the end he was still lagging pretty substantially among voters of color above a certain age. Time has continued to flow since then..
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Nov 21, 2018 23:04
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Z. Autobahn posted:Voters can approve of you, but still not consider you their top pick. I approve of pizza, but given the choice, I'll still order a burger. Throughout all of 2016, Bernie consistently had a much higher approval rating than Clinton, even as voters picked her. Your 'proof' isn't proving the statement. That is distinct from specifically having a PROBLEM with him. Polls this far out aren't accurate but that doesn't useless either: the polls show a racial disparity in his support, but not the GIANT racial disparity you're saying we should expect based on 2016. Even if the exact numbers will change we can expect Bernie to end up with slightly less support among black people than among the broader primary voters, which is bad but not actually campaign killing in any way.
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Nov 22, 2018 02:31
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Z. Autobahn posted:LOL reams of 2016 primary results are vastly more informative than two small primary polls for 2020. I don't know if it has to be emblazoned at the top of this thread, but polls taken years out from elections are *historically and consistently* unreliable and not worth wasting breath on. The polls right now show Biden as an easy frontrunner, and they also showed that Jeb would clinch 2016, and also that Hillary was really popular. Seriously, these polls are *barely* useful as barometers of name recognition. They don't tell us poo poo. The primary results tell us quite a lot about who wins a head to head between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and Jack poo poo about any other situation.
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Nov 27, 2018 04:35
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Adar posted:He would be the favorite in an Iowa primary but I don't think he's favored in a caucus with 15 entrants that takes all night. If he gets a lot of 2nd-4th choice crossover votes from the dozen dead men walking eliminated early he wins, but it's not a guarantee. Iowa is going to be really weird because you need 15% at each level to move forward. MOST of also rans just won't get any delegates at the precinct level but there will be occasional people who were unusually popular in a couple places.
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Nov 29, 2018 02:59
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Bernie's ceiling is the left win vote share as a proportion of the voteshare that doesn't go to people that don't hit 15%. The clown car looks to be really helpful for him early on.
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Nov 29, 2018 04:58
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Typo posted:what does 15 actually give you in iowa's insane caucus clown car in terms of delegates? Okay yeah, I hadn't really thought about it but the clown car doesn't REALLY matter in iowa because caucuses allow second-preferences to matter. If someone doesn't hit 15% of a precinct their supporters can join up with someone else or group up, and that same thing repeats at second levels as well. That being said, the clown car DOES mean that iowa will be even less predictable than normal because which clown car members manage to absorb enough other groups of supporters will be different in different places.
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Nov 29, 2018 05:55
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Z. Autobahn posted:While Biden is definitely the correct answer, I do think folks itt consistently underestimate how many Democrats there are who just really loving hate Bernie. I think it’s actually his biggest challenge, that he’s virtually no one’s second pick, and it really narrows his paths to victory. It's like 4 percent of democrats, the ones who DO hate him are just Extremely Online.
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Dec 3, 2018 06:26
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Bernie actually has way less money than someone his income 'should' have after the amount of time he's had it, he basically doesn't invest it at all, which is literally putting his money where his mouth is.
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Dec 5, 2018 06:16
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I feel like Harris's 'never met a problem that couldn't be solved by throwing poor people in prison' has gotta be damaging in the south but that's an outsider's perspective admittedly.
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Dec 7, 2018 07:43
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Imo Gillibrand's only path to the presidency would be through a Bernie vp slot, because of exactly that.
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Dec 7, 2018 13:23
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He might, but the thing is if he runs and fails... that's basically it. The Guy Who Lost A Senate Race And Then Lost A Democratic Primary has no political future. If he comes up with something appropriate to fill the time... next time Cruz comes up is a presidential year, he'd absolutely win it (and probably be even MORE helpful on the down ballot than he was this time around.)
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Dec 7, 2018 14:06
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People in the south do, but this is about People In The South Who Vote In Democratic Primaries. So uh... do black people in the south still like those, because I feel like they wouldn't.
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Dec 7, 2018 14:42
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Brony Car posted:They could still like Kamala. For other reasons. Yeah I'm not saying no black people in the south will vote for Kamala it just feels like... she's not going to be AS strong in the southern primaries as a lot of people are saying here because of the prison thing.
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Dec 8, 2018 00:31
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theblackw0lf posted:So I’m curious for those that were really upset about this, what was it that made you upset? Because maybe I’m also missing something. I mean, I'm not really upset (as in extremely upset, not as in 'I'm not upset), but I do recognize that a lot of native groups are really upset and have a right to be. She kinda deligitimized a significant amount of native understanding of who IS native and that's a lovely thing to do to some of the most marginalized groups in the country. Honestly put like that it feels like I should be more upset with her than I am,
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Dec 9, 2018 03:49
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theblackw0lf posted:She did say specifically that she realizes that it’s the tribes that determine who is a member and who can claim affinity. I do think though based on a speech I’ve read that her native heritage has a personal meaning to her. If she believes that her mother was forbidden to marry her father because of her mothers native heritage, and I imagine if her mom did say that it was probably something that was conveyed as very meaningful to her, I can see why she would take offense to being mocked for claiming such a heritage, because that wouldn’t be just am insult to her but her mother as well She might have SAID that, but that's not how basically any native groups saw it.
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Dec 9, 2018 07:46
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You're probably not the only one making a southern play though, if say Harris comes out way better than Booker in Iowa and... okay yeah there's a decent shot no one besides Bernie breaks 15% in New Hampshire, you can probably ditch new Hampshire in this strategy, but for Iowa at least if multiple people are making southern plays, the better you've done already the better chance you be got of being the person making a southern play that comes out on top.
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Dec 11, 2018 05:41
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Z. Autobahn posted:"You should appeal to your opponents constituents" No, dems appealed to suburban voters and lost, and then appealed to suburban voters and lost, and then appealed to suburban voters and lost, and then FINALLY appealed to suburban voters and won when the republicans raised the suburban voters' taxes, and people are saying that they're probably going to lose them again, because they are.
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Dec 14, 2018 07:00
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"Sometimes, when the stars align once a decade or so, the suburbs will vote blue" is not "swingy."
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Dec 14, 2018 07:16
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